tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36012018613454234502024-03-13T05:24:13.695+00:00Market View
Stock and currency
market opinions and
reports from trader &
analyst David Atherton.David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.comBlogger303125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-48547363023061691482022-07-10T14:00:00.008+01:002022-07-17T11:47:43.526+01:00Week to July 8th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>DAX underperformance</i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><b>MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL EURUSD</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbzNkmk4tUhkA2RmHmuH_JNdDDWURwuw-4w31pXaah_YyO9beZiKDURKj5px7SB4_1jPbPXWLkKsZGDPq4oivL7uivoQJ0Tl9M82kx-vl2UTYeobUlN6d9qlifr7vPGAmksr024bi8ZGXqP6CNdrdObjShdXTmCKjI57ZUetPuQiC8UdAPcRlAjFBFtQ/s1594/Markets2022Jul08.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbzNkmk4tUhkA2RmHmuH_JNdDDWURwuw-4w31pXaah_YyO9beZiKDURKj5px7SB4_1jPbPXWLkKsZGDPq4oivL7uivoQJ0Tl9M82kx-vl2UTYeobUlN6d9qlifr7vPGAmksr024bi8ZGXqP6CNdrdObjShdXTmCKjI57ZUetPuQiC8UdAPcRlAjFBFtQ/w400-h323/Markets2022Jul08.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In a shortened week due to Independence Day, European divergence and underperformance came to a head on Tuesday’s re-open as DAX dropped 3% to take out its March low and EURUSD dropped through 1.035 support, reaching 1.007 on Friday. Meanwhile, the SPX easily held last week’s low. Tuesday also saw the peak of the recent recession scare, with commodities down heavily and oil lower by 11%. The data highlight of the week came from the NFP, which with a solid beat and print of +372k, tells us the US economy is holding up extremely well despite all the recession talk. Expect the Fed to raise 75bps again in July.<br /><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover this week was NDX, up 4.66%. The top forex mover was EURNZD down 2.32%. Crypto recovered sharply again, and FANG outperformed NDX.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">My EURCAD long lost 1.89% this week, meaning I am now ahead 2.91% with 13/25 (52%) wins. This week I have thrown in the towel and am shorting EURUSD.</p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><br /></b></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjL0SiegMPfORiwdlPWgaDcpP533cQJNacEB_WI3BRJlCi7a5kLWe7_HVXa2nJJQn1j5Nqk24EuTfel1DB_zoVeecpGG2clvHauZeOCr_4jfu8vCmHCVX1uCXLFJySlHss-b34smi8AfRF3O1MluKkGUhAqDzn-x-Vhwbtf1r2Q-vc3xlxzN6PbPr6lw/s1048/Table2022Jul08.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1048" data-original-width="988" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjL0SiegMPfORiwdlPWgaDcpP533cQJNacEB_WI3BRJlCi7a5kLWe7_HVXa2nJJQn1j5Nqk24EuTfel1DB_zoVeecpGG2clvHauZeOCr_4jfu8vCmHCVX1uCXLFJySlHss-b34smi8AfRF3O1MluKkGUhAqDzn-x-Vhwbtf1r2Q-vc3xlxzN6PbPr6lw/w378-h400/Table2022Jul08.png" width="378" /></a></div><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: arial;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i><br style="font-family: arial;" /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>NEXT WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Each month in the past the main focus was on NFP week or Fed week, but these days the most importantly monthly print is CPI, due on Wednesday. The raw figure is estimated to increase yet again to 8.7% from 8.6%, but core inflation (stripping out food and, particularly, energy) is thought to fall again as it has done since the April peak of 6.5%. If this doesn't happen it could be bad for equity markets, whereas a miss (lower) on the headline rate would imply a Fed slowdown and boost recovery.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Earnings season for Q2 also starts next week, with, as always JPM first out of the gate, reporting on Thursday with MS, followed by WFC and C on Friday (GS report the following Monday to complete the opening quintet). UNH, at nearly 11% the largest component of DJIA also report on Friday. After the worst Q1 for decades, these releases will also be key, so overall, strong moves are possible ahead.<br /><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><br /><b><i>Monday, July 11</i></b><br /><b>01:00 BoJ Gov Kuroda speech</b><br />18:00 US Monthly Budget Statement</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Tuesday, July 12</i></b><br />09:00 Germany ZEW Sentiment<br /><b>17:00 BoE Governor Bailey speech</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Wednesday, July 13</i></b><br />00:30 Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence<br />02:00 China Imports/Exports/TB<br />06:00 UK GDP MoM<br />06:00 UK Ind/Mfr Production<br /><b>06:00 Germany CPI (e8.7% p8.2%)</b><br /><b>12:30 US CPI (Core e5.9% p6.0%)</b><br /><b>14:00 BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e2.25% p1.5%)</b><br />15:00 BoC Press Conference<br />18:00 US Fed Beige Book</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Thursday, July 14</i></b><br />01:00 Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations<br /><b>01:30 Aus Jobs/UnEmp (Jobs e25k p60.6k)</b><br />04:30 Japan Ind Production<br />12:30 US Jobless Claims<br />12:30 US PPI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Friday, July 15</i></b><br /><b>02:00 China GDP (QoQ e0.6% p1.3%)</b><br />02:00 China Ind Production<br /><b>02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY e-7.1% p-6.7%)</b><br /><b>12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM e-0.8% p-0.3%)</b><br />13:00 US Fed Index of Common Inflation Expectations (time approx.)<br /><b>14:00 Michigan CSI (e58 p50)</b></span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-69917987509233847652022-07-03T14:50:00.000+01:002022-07-03T14:50:49.288+01:00Week to Jul 1st<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><i>Markets back down again</i></b></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURCAD</span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuHdrBke-PcQKV9KPQySVcbL5-yRp5AtxtxTgMBIdpNyt5VUbdv1JUCzd2SgtKa_vtrIvRzwrk8zFiFD74axvwXE3F5c7xT9WIU_IRIj45YTEeMw8z8mTLIc9VemDSOCVsZRpP77-VW6oO89TOF3mNGxev3dw0C1DuLgOjThGACjORilzVOvdTXRe1vQ/s1594/Markets2022Jul01.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuHdrBke-PcQKV9KPQySVcbL5-yRp5AtxtxTgMBIdpNyt5VUbdv1JUCzd2SgtKa_vtrIvRzwrk8zFiFD74axvwXE3F5c7xT9WIU_IRIj45YTEeMw8z8mTLIc9VemDSOCVsZRpP77-VW6oO89TOF3mNGxev3dw0C1DuLgOjThGACjORilzVOvdTXRe1vQ/w400-h323/Markets2022Jul01.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b>In a week where inflation concerns mixed with recession fears, the net effect was negative on stock markets as SPX and NDX retraced the late June rally and DAX maintained its relative weakness with further June lows. Currencies were mixed, but the general theme was one of USD strength as it made four higher highs and higher lows after bottoming on Monday. EURUSD re-tested the 1.035 low and looks on shaky ground as the annual central bank summit at Sintra underlined the ECB’s lack of options. ECB President Lagarde tried to strike a hawkish tone by saying that they could “move faster” depending on the data, which looked especially toothless when Spain’s CPI came in at 10.2% soon after, beating expectations by 1.4%. It begs the question: if not now, then when? Note the loose EU tone is not helping European stocks.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Inflation now looks more of a European problem than a US one as the Fed’s hiking cycle appears to be working. Long-term yields fell in the US and the 5-year forward inflation expectation rate fell to 2.08%, down from a high of 2.67% in April. Meanwhile, the 10s3s fell to 1.15% and the fall is accelerating – as inflation concerns fade, recession fears are picking up.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b></span><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover this week was NDX, down 4.30%. The top forex mover was NZDUSD or NZDCAD down 3.21%. Crypto fell sharply again, and FANG underperformed NDX.<i><br /></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">My EURAUD long made 1.12% this week, meaning I am now ahead 4.80% with 13/24 (54%) wins. This week I will carry on the theme but switch to buying EUR against the biggest riser CAD, which I think may pull back, so I will be long EURCAD.<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTcLAzQZxokyVSzaXYR4mr5ZoWHM4YGjM50JgS6DugPMlKFCwbtWi8xtd7VFFVHqZvzxwARiIfsOpjx6tmlIZJKISj-0TJFRB0C_vAm0uxWTx6VfhMSI9xLXQjfc8L8rtVzouawW2IZ0S4ud4kn196--M1QOPUGVyhyWYRaa-B2Uru1bzpx7K6LSnJJA/s1012/Table2022Jul01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1012" data-original-width="988" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTcLAzQZxokyVSzaXYR4mr5ZoWHM4YGjM50JgS6DugPMlKFCwbtWi8xtd7VFFVHqZvzxwARiIfsOpjx6tmlIZJKISj-0TJFRB0C_vAm0uxWTx6VfhMSI9xLXQjfc8L8rtVzouawW2IZ0S4ud4kn196--M1QOPUGVyhyWYRaa-B2Uru1bzpx7K6LSnJJA/s320/Table2022Jul01.jpg" width="312" /></a></div><br /></div><i style="font-family: arial;"><div><i style="font-family: arial;"><br /></i></div>Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i><br style="font-family: arial;" /><br style="font-family: arial;" /><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">NEXT WEEK</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">A new month, quarter and half year, and of course the main event is NFP. Although inflation is the primary driver of expectations of Fed action (and thus SPX pricing), the jobs report still has some effect. Traders are looking for signs that the tightening will be slowed down, and a poor report could therefore boost markets.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The week is of course foreshortened in the US (only) for Independence Day, hence why the ADP report is a day late. The only other significant event is the RBA rate decision, where a 50bp hike is expected, and may reverse the AUD trend, which is now trading at a one-year low. There are several trade balance and PMI reports but as you know, these have much less effect on markets than central bank actions.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><br /><b><i>Monday, July 4</i></b><br />01:00 Aus TD Securities Inflation<br />01:30 Aus Building Permits<br />06:00 Germany Trade Balance<br />13:30 Canada S&P Mfr PMI<br />14:30 BoC Business Outlook Survey<br />22:30 Aus AiG Construction Index<br />23:00 Aus S&P Svcs PMI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Tuesday, July 5</i></b><br />01:45 China Caixin Svcs PMI<br /><b>04:30 RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e1.35% p0.85%)</b><br />07:55 Germany S&P Comp PMI<br />08:00 Eurozone S&P Comp PMI<br />08:30 UK S&P Comp PMI<br />09:30 UK Financial Stability Report<br />14:00 US Factory Orders<br />16:30 BoE Tenreyro speech</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Wednesday, July 6</i></b><br />06:00 Germany Factory Orders<br />08:10 BoE Pill speech<br />09:00 EC Growth Forecasts<br /><b>09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (e5.4% p3.9%)</b><br />09:30 DE10Y Bond Auction<br />13:45 US S&P Comp & Svcs PMI<br /><b>14:00 ISM Svcs PMI (e55.7 p55.9)</b><br />18:00 FOMC Minutes</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Thursday, July 7</i></b><br />01:30 Aus Imports/Exports/TB<br />11:30 ECB MPC Minutes<br /><b>12:15 US ADP (e200k p128k)</b><br />12:30 US Trade Balance<br />12:30 US Jobless Claims<br />12:30 Canada Trade Balance<br />14:00 Canada Ivey PMI<br />23:50 Japan Current Account</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Friday, July 8</i></b><br /><b>12:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e250k p390k)</b><br /><b>12:30 Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (UE e5.2% p5.1%)</b></span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-71581190443291928892022-06-26T12:34:00.049+01:002022-07-03T14:50:39.610+01:00Week to Jun 24th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><b>Strong bounce back in markets</b></i></div><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b>MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURAUD</b></div></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIs7uk3mT5hZmQXHloX86SWwjHV6Y9ESVf9ietMvjQImGgjwHm64tWBaKNR4tbef2fJVcI1KZUahQTtEAKDfr3-dEa5n-WrR-7DKArgI1VZmhksQysRacaoDxuoiPnSUekbo4d0lhRJJcAGxNtwrhjso4aWHtB651pKUAQRMMnaB0-Jf_sm9anWNT14g/s1594/Markets2022Jun24.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIs7uk3mT5hZmQXHloX86SWwjHV6Y9ESVf9ietMvjQImGgjwHm64tWBaKNR4tbef2fJVcI1KZUahQTtEAKDfr3-dEa5n-WrR-7DKArgI1VZmhksQysRacaoDxuoiPnSUekbo4d0lhRJJcAGxNtwrhjso4aWHtB651pKUAQRMMnaB0-Jf_sm9anWNT14g/w400-h323/Markets2022Jun24.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In a week of two-way volatility and US-EU divergence, the overall theme was of improving risk sentiment. The SPX managed to hold last Friday’s low in an early dip and has since recovered nearly 300 points (+7%). Associated markets helped the bullish case as yields fell, oil and commodities continued to drop and the USD stayed steady. Inflation expectations were revised lower. Even Bitcoin provided a tailwind as it survived the key 20k re-test and is already +20% off the lows. Pockets of weakness continued, however, especially in the eurozone. DAX made new lows on Wednesday and Thursday and the euro dropped due to poor PMIs and the likelihood that the ECB will be severely limited in any hawkish ambitions.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Developments last week suggest an interim bottom has been struck or is very close. A 5-leg decline has developed on SPX and when it completes, we should see a correction to the entire downtrend, often a 50-61% retrace. Beyond that, the view gets bearish again as the presence of trend suggests another major leg lower should unfold. Just how severe this will be hinges on a number of factors, particularly on whether or not the US can avoid a recession.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br /><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover this week was NDX, up 5.79%. The top forex mover was EURJPY up 1.08%. Crypto recovered, and FANG outperformed NDX.<br /><br />My EURNZD long made 0.59% this week, meaning I am now ahead 3.68% with 12/23 (52%) wins. This week I will carry on the theme but switch to buying EURAUD.<br /><br /><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihQ6_am-VP901GP7_SxDJgTkMurhG3cuH7WpH5-691eEFi9Su8ht0rPQglVU1NGWiFgAIR2CywlRO-c-rSuvgDjlXz8F5a9qHhdyw-RN1L4fOGeV7vC_WKlS0GOgSq5NiD_FnT16YSmCMIvYE6HDCeUpqXviHdxZZuyyMDWI8xiVYvjFn_lGVnBW0jjg/s524/Table2022Jun24.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="524" data-original-width="495" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihQ6_am-VP901GP7_SxDJgTkMurhG3cuH7WpH5-691eEFi9Su8ht0rPQglVU1NGWiFgAIR2CywlRO-c-rSuvgDjlXz8F5a9qHhdyw-RN1L4fOGeV7vC_WKlS0GOgSq5NiD_FnT16YSmCMIvYE6HDCeUpqXviHdxZZuyyMDWI8xiVYvjFn_lGVnBW0jjg/w378-h400/Table2022Jun24.png" width="378" /></a></div><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>NEXT WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As we close out the month, quarter and half-year, the only key US prints next week are the annualised GDP and ISM PMI. Also of interest are the PCE The big central bank event is the ECB Sintra summit (their version of Jackson Hole which is at the end of August), hence the raft of speeches on Wednesday. Markets didn't worry about the Powell testimony this week, so it is reasonable to assume there will be nothing new from the Fed Chair at Sintra. Ms Lagarde however is another story, a surprise from her could move DXY.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />German inflation is still disappointingly on the increase, not helped by the fact that lagging EU tightening, a policy for all 27 member states now disadvantages the richest one, and may be a factor in SPX outperforming DAX by over 6% last week. One often overlooked release is PCE, said to be the Fed's preferred method of measuring inflation. The YoY print on Thursday is estimated to fall slightly, could this be a turning point in sentiment.<br /><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><br /><b><i>Monday June 27</i></b><br />12:30 US Durable/ND Capital Goods Orders (DG e0.1% p0.5%)<br />14:00 US Pending Home Sales<br /><b>18:30 ECB Pres Lagarde speech</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Tuesday June 28</i></b><br />06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence<br /><b>08:00 ECB Pres Lagarde speech</b><br />13:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices<br />14:00 US Consumer Confidence(Jun)<br />23:50 Japan Retail Sales</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Wednesday June 29</i></b><br /><b>01:30 Aus Retail Sales (e0.4% p0.9%)</b><br />09:00 Eurozone Business/Consumer Confidence<br /><b>11:10 BoE Governor Bailey speech</b><br /><b>12:00 Germany CPI (e8.8% p8.7%)</b><br />12:30 US PCE (QoQ)<br /><b>12:30 US GDP Annualised (e-1.5% p-1.5%)</b><br /><b>13:00 Fed Chair Powell speech</b><br /><b>13:00 BoE Gov Bailey speech</b><br /><b>13:00 ECB Pres Lagarde speech</b><br /><b>15:00 ECB Pres Lagarde speech</b><br />23:50 Japan Ind Production</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Thursday June 30</i></b><br /><b>01:00 China PMIs (Mfr e49.6 p49.6)</b><br /><b>06:00 UK Q1 GDP (QoQ e0.8% p0.8%)</b><br /><b>06:00 Germany Retail Sales (p-0.4%)</b><br />07:55 Germany UnEmp<br />09:00 Eurozone UnEmp<br />12:30 US PCE (MoM and YoY) (YoY e4.7% p4.9%)<br />12:30 US Jobless Claims<br />12:30 Canada MoM GDP<br />13:45 Chicago PMI<br />22:30 Aus AiG Mfg Index<br />23:30 Japan Jobs/UnEmp<br />23:30 Tokyo CPI<br /><b>23:50 Japan Tankan Mfr Index (e13 p14)</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Friday July 1</i></b><br />01:45 China Caixin Mfr PMI<br />07:55 Germany S&P Mfr PMI<br />08:30 UK S&P Mfr PMI<br /><b>09:00 Eurozone CPI (e7.8% p8.1%)</b><br />13:45 US S&P Mfr PMI<br /><b>14:00 US ISM Mfr PMI (p56.1)</b></span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-27121429515789185952022-06-19T14:15:00.014+01:002022-07-03T14:50:27.693+01:00Week to Jun 17th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Record rate hike causes market plunge</i></b></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURNZD</span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><b><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjroiDbGntcnJkkUICn2MNNKs6ahkDX_Y31Vc2Yn13wu0QaElH8cjfMidhgiaFMQF7o4oOU6tOlbaZg1_tueWyyuM8r5HrlpfFxmCcFnyk_wlp_k-sTrW-oz1pVDI3m5g5S21qJPZ9Zy5sFcmADwt5gsnTEruEQI12neoNl_E-DKSXWkoxAsgGXAB5kng/s1594/Markets2022Jun17.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjroiDbGntcnJkkUICn2MNNKs6ahkDX_Y31Vc2Yn13wu0QaElH8cjfMidhgiaFMQF7o4oOU6tOlbaZg1_tueWyyuM8r5HrlpfFxmCcFnyk_wlp_k-sTrW-oz1pVDI3m5g5S21qJPZ9Zy5sFcmADwt5gsnTEruEQI12neoNl_E-DKSXWkoxAsgGXAB5kng/w400-h323/Markets2022Jun17.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b><br /><br />This week saw the Fed raise rates by 75bp, the first hike of this magnitude since 1994. The market was expecting a 50bp hike, but, during the blackout period on Monday, a WSJ journalist reported that the Fed are likely to "consider surprising markets" with the higher figure. SPX was off nearly 4% that day, and fell all week, other than a slight relief rally on the day itself. SPX is now 22.5% off the high and therefore 'officially' a bear market. Note that DJIA is still only 17.75% from its ATH. The UK and German markets pretty much followed suit, although DAX is still above its post-Ukraine March low, and FTSE, now the strongest of major indices is only 8.5% off, helped by its oil weighting.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The UK also raised rates on Thursday, but 'only' by 0.25% which held up GBP, although this may have also been dollar-driven, as EUR also rose. The BoJ continued with their loose policy (no rate hike, tightening of QE). DXY and USDJPY made their highest weekly close for 20 years, as 10-year yields rose 32bp and touched a new 11-year high, although notably pulled back to close the week only 5bp up.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Oil had its worst week since March, leading to a 18-month low for CAD, and gold pulled back, both more than you would expect for just the dollar movement. Bitcoin broke through June support to post its worst week since the March 2020 pandemic crash.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Next week we are expecting some SPX and DAX recovery, as shown in our subscriber analysis charts. This may however be followed by further lows. We have a similar view on EURUSD, some upside for now. The doji spike on 10-year yields is significant, which leads on to our view on USDJPY<br /><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover this week was SPX, down 5.79%. The top forex mover was USDCAD up 2.12%. Crypto collapsed hard, and FANG fell in line with SPX.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">My EURGBP short lost 0.62% this week, meaning I am now ahead 3.09% with 11/22 (50% wins). This week I am reversing course and buying EURNZD. I feel EUR must rally, and NZD is the most overextended.<br /><br /><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvvTRMNozcwgmc9AfbCBrk1ftaM0_v7XPo1-EqU88v2Rz4ltRCPu8nZo314GI9ONmGaBrhndGD3ERxTbE0ozVcySfTunFpbxnnaTYZCDiBfc119Xoq_EEYo6j1PnGCX-XhXi2FnkCRL6AGZIkEpx2NnBvXMV3Q6HU9GIO0-loP_Brf0GslVLt8rr1N_Q/s492/Table2022Jun17.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="483" data-original-width="492" height="393" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvvTRMNozcwgmc9AfbCBrk1ftaM0_v7XPo1-EqU88v2Rz4ltRCPu8nZo314GI9ONmGaBrhndGD3ERxTbE0ozVcySfTunFpbxnnaTYZCDiBfc119Xoq_EEYo6j1PnGCX-XhXi2FnkCRL6AGZIkEpx2NnBvXMV3Q6HU9GIO0-loP_Brf0GslVLt8rr1N_Q/w400-h393/Table2022Jun17.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /></div><i style="font-family: arial;"><div><i style="font-family: arial;"><br /></i></div><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i>Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></div></i><br style="font-family: arial;" /><br style="font-family: arial;" /><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">NEXT WEEK</b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The main event in the four-day week in the US is probably Fed Chair Powell's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, where Congress will no doubt be focused on inflation and the Fed's plan to combat it. Monday is the Juneteenth holiday in the US only. There are no major US releases. Elsewhere we have further rising inflation expected in the UK and Canada, and a batch of PMIs, all looking fairly stable. Volatility is therefore likely to damp down, compared to last week's rate hike moves. Equity markets will probably move slightly upwards, now the rate hike has been digested. The dollar has come off the highs, but as we have said previously, may not be done yet.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><br /><b><i>Monday June 20</i></b><br /><b>01:30 PBoC Interest Rate Decision (e3.7% hold)</b><br />06:00 Germany PPI<br />08:00 BoE Haskel speech<br />12:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index<br />13:00 BoE Mann speech<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Tuesday June 21</i></b><br /><b>00:00 RBA Governor Lowe speech</b><br /><b>01:30 RBA MPC Minutes</b><br />07:15 BoE Pill speech<br />12:15 BoE Tenreyro speech<br /><b>12:30 Canada Retail Sales (e1.8% p0.0%)</b><br />23:50 BoJ MPC Minutes</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Wednesday June 22</i></b><br /><b>06:00 UK CPI/PPI/RPI (CPI 9.8% p9.0%)</b><br />08:40 BoE Cunliffe speech<br /><b>12:30 Canada CPI (BoC Core e5.9% p5.7%)</b><br /><b>13:30 Fed Chair Powell HH Senate Testimony</b><br />14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence<br />14:40 BoC Rogers speech<br />22:00 Aus S&P Svcs PMI<br />23:00 Aus S&P Mfr PMI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Thursday June 23</i></b><br /><b>07:30 Germany S&P PMIs (Mfr e54.8 p54.8)</b><br />08:00 Eurozone Economic Bulletin<br /><b>08:00 Eurozone S&P PMIs (Comp e54.2 p54.8)</b><br /><b>08:30 UK S&P PMIs (Svcs e52.6 p53.4)</b><br />12:30 US Jobless Claims<br />13:45 US S&P PMIs<br /><b>14:00 Fed Chair Powell HH House Testimony</b><br /><b>20:30 US Bank Stress Test Info</b><br />23:30 Japan National CPI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Friday June 24</i></b><br />06:00 US Retail Sales<br />08:00 Germany IFO Business Sentiment<br /><b>11:30 RBA Governor Lowe speech</b><br />12:30 BoE Pill speech<br />13:45 BoE Haskel speech<br />14:00 Michigan CSI<br />14:00 US New Home Sales</span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-46791710344942007122022-06-12T14:28:00.010+01:002022-06-12T14:29:47.249+01:00Week to Jun 10th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><b>CPI beat causes market plunge</b></i></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: red;"><b>MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL EURGBP</b></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><b><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxyf7MKrtCejXtg-AuB8EwsM8NG6Ux-jUlbGctj-ml5JGsXOaIrBLC0zfFggV2E1N9noIs-RoPRcuWQ5RUB3gK-ZLB8YeHITh0-RL6FwYo2AtC6wLsrdZZCgpK2wYgy1iCiPELO5BeIopBjEZTG8jm2teCQGFXMYPOtmCmS0ilg9T484bgXpkD_zsSbQ/s1594/Markets2022Jun10.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxyf7MKrtCejXtg-AuB8EwsM8NG6Ux-jUlbGctj-ml5JGsXOaIrBLC0zfFggV2E1N9noIs-RoPRcuWQ5RUB3gK-ZLB8YeHITh0-RL6FwYo2AtC6wLsrdZZCgpK2wYgy1iCiPELO5BeIopBjEZTG8jm2teCQGFXMYPOtmCmS0ilg9T484bgXpkD_zsSbQ/w400-h323/Markets2022Jun10.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b><br /><br />In a week which started with some cagey, range-bound trading, Thursday’s session finally provided a decisive break lower in the main stock indices. The S&P 500 broke 4073 to signal the end of the sequence off the May low, and the DAX head and shoulders pattern gave a solid top signal.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Volatility increased after a hawkish ECB meeting pre-announced a 25bps hike in July and September, and surprisingly left the door open for the September hike to be upped to 50bps. The bank also revised inflation projections higher, and in a bizarre footnote to its statement, admitted the new projections were still too low as the May HICP inflation numbers came in higher than expected and they didn’t have time to re-calculate. Meanwhile, the White House pre-warned that inflation numbers due for release on Friday would be elevated due to the rally in oil and gas. And they weren’t wrong—CPI came in at 8.6%, the highest in 40 years. Barclays now expects a 75bps hike by the Fed next week.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Inflation shocks and central banks scrambling to get rates into neutral/restrictive territory continues to be the main theme and any pause in the Fed’s hiking cycle seems wishful thinking at this stage.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Friday’s print will break the 100-year downtrend in inflation and the worry is that central banks have lost control.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Yields keep pushing higher and are back near the yearly highs, as is DXY. Dollar pairs look quite similar to SPX and EURUSD et al have completed their first rally sequence higher from the May low and are now retracing that move.<br /><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover this week was NDX, down 5.70%. The top forex mover was for the third week USDJPY up 2.73%. Crypto had a relatively quiet week, moving no more than indices, and FANGs notably underperformed NDX as a whole.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />The ECB was not hawkish enough, or more to point, USD rallied on the CPI print. Last week's EURUSD long lost 1.87%, which means I am ahead 3.71% this year, with 11/21 (52.4%) wins. This week I am selling EURGBP on the hope of a hawkish BoE.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWjhKgqHhXU04RZdf4rYDsGNsBXuNt18vT-pksN2UMS2xTTgyzBJX5OMgnmhYhc1KO84A8sOfoadcWXAwxVW7P0Tk9uxSTtaY5SgG5jcQaFpmRs5vL9YRNLZoZJBcFsdpdN0fOkuds2ZJMjmKEFtnYS8ygyK6HaAH7budkgraJvPFmHSTvaEQPuh9-tA/s545/Table2022Jun10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="545" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWjhKgqHhXU04RZdf4rYDsGNsBXuNt18vT-pksN2UMS2xTTgyzBJX5OMgnmhYhc1KO84A8sOfoadcWXAwxVW7P0Tk9uxSTtaY5SgG5jcQaFpmRs5vL9YRNLZoZJBcFsdpdN0fOkuds2ZJMjmKEFtnYS8ygyK6HaAH7budkgraJvPFmHSTvaEQPuh9-tA/w400-h360/Table2022Jun10.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><i style="font-family: arial;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i><br style="font-family: arial;" /><br style="font-family: arial;" /><br style="font-family: arial;" /><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">NEXT WEEK<br /></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />There are three rate decisions next week, from the UK, Japan and the all important Fed. The CME Fedwatch tool suggests a 92.5% chance of a 50bp hike (the 7.5% is all for 75bp), so all eyes will be on the statement and Chair Powell presser. The situation with the BoE is less clear, the official consensus is a hold, but there is a strong risk to the upside, which should benefit beleaguered GBP.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />The Fed decision will affect equities, already approaching the May 20 low after the new multi-decade high inflation print on Friday caused a 3% sell-off, and the May LOY of 3810 is in sight.<br />It is also OpEx week, where we have historically seen a downtrend.<br /><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><br /><b><i>Monday June 13</i></b><br />06:00 UK GDP MoM<br />06:00 UK Ind/Mfr Production</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Tuesday June 14</i></b><br />01:30 Aus House Price Index<br />04:30 Japan Ind Production<br /><b>06:00 UK AHE/UnEmp (UnEmp e3.8% p3.7%)</b><br /><b>06:00 Germany CPI (e7.8% p8.7%)</b><br />09:00 Germany ZEW Sentiment<br />12:30 US PPI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Wednesday June 15</i></b><br />00:30 Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence<br /><b>02:00 China Retail Sales (e-6.1% p-11.1%)</b><br />09:00 Eurozone Ind Production<br /><b>12:30 US Retail Sales (e0.2% p0.9%)</b><br /><b>18:00 Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e1.5% p1.0%)</b><br /><b>18:30 FOMC Press Conference</b><br />23:50 Japan Imports/Exports/TB</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Thursday June 16</i></b><br />01:00 Aus Inflation Expectations<br /><b>01:30 Aus Jobs/UnEmp (Unemp e3.9% p3.9%)</b><br />09:00 Eurozone Labor Cost<br /><b>11:00 BoE Rate Decision/Statement (e1.00% hold)</b><br />12:30 US Building Permits/Housing Starts<br />12:30 US Jobless Claims<br />12:30 Philly Fed Mfr Survey</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Friday June 17</i></b><br /><b>03:00 BoJ Rate Decision/Statement (e-0.1% p-0.1%)</b><br />06:00 BoJ Press Conference<br />08:30 BoE Pill speech<br />08:30 BoE Tenreyro speech<br />09:00 Eurozone CPI<br />15:00 Fed Monetary Policy Report</span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com065 Glandon Dr, Cheadle Hulme, Cheadle SK8 7EZ, UK53.365100600000012 -2.178515853.364940548168626 -2.1787840209014893 53.3652606518314 -2.1782475790985107tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-88863876374669889822022-06-05T16:04:00.006+01:002022-06-05T16:04:41.531+01:00Week to Jun 3rd<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Rally stalls</i><i> in stocks and bonds</i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><b>MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURJPY</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLTwRq-z8pkOd2wFRXGij3fbILdVi3btS8JbWRexEX6UPo9E1PRKFlNNNoKBj3sLMlsXfeNEQPBBFKXBP_WM21l1l9cnV6uEtBpOddqE2q7qAKvo1_sLXhM4nVang-hGTburecaQrWfRgaJBBNLAi917Cn_YOiVEoA8-Txw6Rx7siST0AzMIBP9iO4zQ/s1594/Markets2022Jun03.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLTwRq-z8pkOd2wFRXGij3fbILdVi3btS8JbWRexEX6UPo9E1PRKFlNNNoKBj3sLMlsXfeNEQPBBFKXBP_WM21l1l9cnV6uEtBpOddqE2q7qAKvo1_sLXhM4nVang-hGTburecaQrWfRgaJBBNLAi917Cn_YOiVEoA8-Txw6Rx7siST0AzMIBP9iO4zQ/w400-h323/Markets2022Jun03.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The week started with Memorial Day and a hawkish speech from known Fed hawk Christopher Waller, talking about 50bp hikes at every meeting until inflation is tamed, even running past the ‘neutral rate’ of 2.5%. Following that, just as last week’s poor data was read by the market as potentially delaying tightening, this week a run of good data, including Tuesday’s Chicago PMI (60.3 vs 55!) and Wednesday’s ISM PMI (56.1 vs 54.5), led to a small reversal of last week’s rally, but overall a much less volatile week that we have seen recently.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />A similar theme from the even more hawkish (so therefore you’d expect 75bp or something, which he didn’t say) James Bullard temporarily arrested the decline, and Thursday’s misses on ADP and Factory Orders, following the bad=good theme helped SPX add 2.73% from the double-bottom low of the week, but still close 1.20% down on the week. NFP was a beat which fuelled the decline further, and as we predicted last week, did not essentially alter the trend.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />In Europe, inflation data was worse than expected with Germany reporting 8.7% vs 8%, and Eurozone 8.1% vs 7.7% (core 3.8% vs 3.5%). Nevertheless DAX and FTSE closed flat on the week, the latter only trading for three days.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Currencies were fairly flat, except for JPY which fell again as US yields started to climb again. USDJPY had its highest weekly close for 20 years. Oil rallied again by 4.69% to its highest weekly close since 2008. Fed Williams speech and SEC consumer video about cryptocurrencies led to a 7.7% drop in BTC, back under $30,000. It had not recovered by the end of the week.<br /><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b>The biggest index mover this week was NKY, up 3.66%. The top forex mover was again USDJPY up 2.94%. Crypto had a volatile week ending slightly up, and FANGs notably outperformed NDX as a whole.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's USDJPY short was the worst trade I could take, losing 2.94%, which means I am ahead 5.58% this year, with 11/20 (55%) wins. This week I am buying EURJPY on the hope of a hawkish ECB, and that JPY must pull back eventually.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizg3lo87dpE3V7lSKOJ4QpM8nWIahr2WCthdXAF2DsQWY-EIMGVp81szbDgiJaEzp5HkhWEbWSV6BIN6WQjwxEiUK8ZkpV5tseivBfNgTrrsO4ob3BSJcBd7808gY7BdqwBZNRHI4gE1V2eEWoxLrznrWwUeWsTXrlMjJhKPyiS6e1yeq2Fy35n2tIOQ/s579/Table2022Jun03.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="579" data-original-width="548" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizg3lo87dpE3V7lSKOJ4QpM8nWIahr2WCthdXAF2DsQWY-EIMGVp81szbDgiJaEzp5HkhWEbWSV6BIN6WQjwxEiUK8ZkpV5tseivBfNgTrrsO4ob3BSJcBd7808gY7BdqwBZNRHI4gE1V2eEWoxLrznrWwUeWsTXrlMjJhKPyiS6e1yeq2Fy35n2tIOQ/w379-h400/Table2022Jun03.png" width="379" /></a></div><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></span></div><div><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b>NEXT WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The key release next week is the US inflation print on Friday where a slight but welcome reduction from 8.3% to 8.2% and core 6.2% to 5.9% is expected. Markets will definitely move whatever the print is, even coming as estimated would be a fillip to equities.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Otherwise the main events are outside the US with the RBA and ECB rate decisions. The RBA is expected to hike by 25bp, with some forecasters predicting a 40bp increase (meaning 25bp could depress AUD). The hawkish bar is also high for the ECB, the only currency area not to have raised rates or terminated QE yet. The single currency has come off multi-year lows recently, but this recovery could threatened unless the ECB take some action. The ECB has previously said it will not raises until it has ended bond buying.<br /><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><br /><b><i>Monday June 6</i></b><br />01:00 Aus TD Securities Inflation<br />01:45 China Caixin Services PMI<br />23:30 Japan Overall Household Spending<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Tuesday June 7</i></b><br /><b>04:30 RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.60% p0.35%)</b><br />06:00 Germany Factory Orders<br />12:30 US Trade Balance<br />12:30 Canada Trade Balance<br />14:00 Canada Ivey PMI<br /><b>23:50 Japan Q1 Final GDP (e-0.2% p-0.2%)</b><br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Wednesday June 8</i></b><br /><b>09:00 Eurozone Q1 Final GDP (QoQ e0.3% p0.3%)</b><br />09:30 DE10Y Auction<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Thursday June 9</i></b><br />02:00 China Imports/Exports/TB<br /><b>11:45 ECB Rate Decision/Statement (e0% hold)</b><br />12:30 ECB Pres Lagarde Presser<br />12:30 US Jobless Claims<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Friday June 10</i></b><br />01:30 China CPI (p2.1%)<br /><b>12:30 US CPI (Core e5.9% p6.2%)</b><br /><b>12:30 Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP p15.3k)</b><br /><b>14:00 Michigan CSI (e56.9 p58.4)</b><br />18:00 US Monthly Budget Statement</span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-38848008520300840702022-05-30T00:04:00.001+01:002022-05-30T00:04:52.710+01:00Week to May 27th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><b>Reversals in stocks, dollar and bonds</b></i></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL USDJPY</span></b></div><br /><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUxWcf6obtPAOVR2TyQqhs1IR46YV6E39owUtlJT6v-is0UBs-8BagXK_yM0bueW7R9Xi18lIPgdDEt-jJA_bYS0OXFXN9N1cSPqmjLZ_ZgpsP1PcGybQuGzGArRjnfGrjA3Yyj7D1nSKva4qYJ6VvwsK6EZ0874RBe-kNgIKj9aYIPngir4G6KJ5bmA/s1594/Markets2022May28.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUxWcf6obtPAOVR2TyQqhs1IR46YV6E39owUtlJT6v-is0UBs-8BagXK_yM0bueW7R9Xi18lIPgdDEt-jJA_bYS0OXFXN9N1cSPqmjLZ_ZgpsP1PcGybQuGzGArRjnfGrjA3Yyj7D1nSKva4qYJ6VvwsK6EZ0874RBe-kNgIKj9aYIPngir4G6KJ5bmA/w400-h323/Markets2022May28.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In a week that built on recent reversals in risk assets, our bullish view on SPX finally played out. After holding the confluence of the channel and Fib levels at 3810 (a confluence of the 38.2% retrace of the 2020-2022 rally and the 23.6% retrace of the 2009-2022 rally), SPX went on to convincingly break the down channel off the March high and the short-term moving averages. The strong close at 4158, 3 back-to-back >80% upside days (over 80% of stocks in the NYSE close higher), and the need for a correction to the March-May downtrend all project higher prices next week.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">NDX and DAX also put in strong upside breaks, while yields and the US dollar fell. Even growth stocks caught a bid and ARKK at Wednesday’s open caught a +17% rally over the next three sessions.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Driving all this bullishness was the old bad news is good news paradox. US data was broadly weak with flash Services PMI missing, home sales down sharply, pending homes sales dropping and prelim GDP missing at –1.5%. This led to a sense that the Fed’s job is already mostly done, and the economy is slowing. Long-term inflation expectations continue to fall and if they fall enough, the Fed can ease off the tightening. We doubt this will avert 50bps in June or in July, but it may lead to a pause later this year. The June dot-plots will be important in this regard.<br /></span><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b>The biggest index mover was again NDX, reversing back up 7.15%. The top forex mover was again NZDUSD up 2.21%. Bitcoin was flat but Ethereum fell hard, and FANGs broadly followed NDX as you would expect.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Last week's AUDJPY short lost 0.94%, which means I am ahead 8.52% this year, with 11/19 (57.9%) wins. This week I am selling USDJPY, the safest dollar short.<br /><br /><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfUbZNOeyR-3_sARzXhDq5O-qhvTmDmBGzBrCHc7kpYT6MwdX-bw4A1S8vmsrF4frv8mTjZ9ATiJSfdaat4eec55igOjaNJtSYYeHOFYPDgBXXJElw1f_7kAUBdjl9kO44ItFdsKp-QN0Fx2x7oNTYu4gEChM8XoVI9jCwYv1rvUjz7FcYUFrp1_c_JA/s1050/Table2022May27.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1050" data-original-width="990" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfUbZNOeyR-3_sARzXhDq5O-qhvTmDmBGzBrCHc7kpYT6MwdX-bw4A1S8vmsrF4frv8mTjZ9ATiJSfdaat4eec55igOjaNJtSYYeHOFYPDgBXXJElw1f_7kAUBdjl9kO44ItFdsKp-QN0Fx2x7oNTYu4gEChM8XoVI9jCwYv1rvUjz7FcYUFrp1_c_JA/w378-h400/Table2022May27.png" width="378" /></a></div></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: arial;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><i><br style="font-family: arial;" /></i><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">NEXT WEEK</b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Normally, in the first week of a new month, you would expect NFP to be the main event, but times are not normal, jobs are recovering nicely, this week's jobs estimates are modest, and unemployment is at multi-year lows, and all eyes are on inflation, or rather the Fed's reaction to it. There are no US inflation or growth indicators reported so the two Fed speeches on Wednesday assume outsized importance. The consensus for the June 15 hike is still 50bp, so anything hawkish may depress equities, which are currently consolidating around the 38.2% retracement from the March 2020 low.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Outside the US we have inflation from Germany and Eurozone, and GDP from Canada and Australia. Also affecting CAD is the expected 50bp rate hike from the BoC on Wednesday, and also any surprise action at Thursday's OPEC meeting. The consensus is an increase in output by 432kbpd, which is actually more than anyone other than Saudi Arabia and the UAE can manage. Various PMI releases are all expected to show slight contraction, except China manufacturing, the only one in negative (under 50) territory.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Also next week has several holidays, with Memorial Day on Monday, a two-day break in the UK for the Queen's Jubilee, and Friday is the Dragon Boat festival. Given the holidays, and the fact that equities are currently consolidating around a key SPX long-term fib point, volatility is likely be low, and there may be more action in currencies.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Monday May 30</i></b><br />09:00 Eurozone Business Climate/Consumer Confidence<br /><b>12:00 Germany CPI (e8.0% p7.8%)</b><br />15:00 Fed Waller speech<br />23:30 Japan Jobs/Unemployment<br />23:50 Japan Industrial Production<br />23:50 Japan Retail Sales<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Tuesday May 31</i></b><br /><b>01:00 China PMIs (Mfr e49.6 p47.4)</b><br />07:55 Germany Unemp Rate/Change<br /><b>09:00 Eurozone CPI (Core e3.5% p3.5%)</b><br /><b>12:30 Canada Q1 GDP (YoY e5.7% p6.7%)</b><br />13:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices<br />13:45 Chicago PMI<br />14:00 US Consumer Confidence<br />22:30 Aus AiG Mfg Index</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Wednesday June 1</i></b><br /><b>01:30 Australia GDP (QoQ e0.6% p3.4%)</b><br />01:45 China Caixin Mfr PMI<br /><b>06:00 Germany Retail Sales (e4.0% p-2.7%)</b><br />07:55 Germany S&P Mfr PMI<br />08:30 UK S&P Mfr PMI<br />09:00 Eurozone Unemp Rate<br />13:30 Canada S&P Mfr PMI<br />13:45 US S&P Mfr PMI<br /><b>14:00 US ISM Mfr PMI (e54.5 p55.4)</b><br /><b>14:00 BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e1.5% p1.0%)</b><br />15:30 Fed Williams speech<br />17:00 Fed Bullard speech<br />18:00 Fed Beige Book</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Thursday June 2</i></b><br /><b>01:30 Australia TB (e9.50B p9.31B)</b><br />08:00 OPEC Meeting<br /><b>12:15 US ADP (e280k p247k)</b><br />12:30 US Jobless Claims<br />14:00 US Factory Orders<br />14:45 BoC Beaudry speech<br />22:30 Aus AiG Construction Index<br />23:00 Aus S&P Svcs PMI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Friday June 3</i></b><br />06:00 Germany TB<br />07:55 Germany S&P Comp PMI<br />08:00 Eurozone S&P Comp PMI<br /><b>09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY e5.4% p0.8%)</b><br /><b>12:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (e310k p428k)</b><br />13:45 US S&P Svcs/Comp PMI<br /><b>14:00 US ISM Svcs PMI (e56.0 p57.1)</b></span></div><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><b><i></i></b></p>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-75584834489223838932022-05-21T14:33:00.010+01:002022-05-21T14:35:51.171+01:00Week to May 20th<p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-family: arial;">USD pulls back, SPX decline hits fib levels</span></b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL AUDJPY</span></b></div><p></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghJxyQQ7XcbjSj5dRzZW7AdsIqG7Z7QtzaPmcCwL-RG4VI4gegBGnnToDpDZZzw9AVOC6tsV-fjUsb5Y41sIY6n6JzMMZxFQsZx1Mt0CJNjrRUrWHdLFt1fF4AJeTIM35Xccj45NEh4uZ20BaH5RV1e_S0BnsTxLhRUvNdjwz9eFhRJRS2BKqw2T1GbA/s1594/Markets2022May20.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghJxyQQ7XcbjSj5dRzZW7AdsIqG7Z7QtzaPmcCwL-RG4VI4gegBGnnToDpDZZzw9AVOC6tsV-fjUsb5Y41sIY6n6JzMMZxFQsZx1Mt0CJNjrRUrWHdLFt1fF4AJeTIM35Xccj45NEh4uZ20BaH5RV1e_S0BnsTxLhRUvNdjwz9eFhRJRS2BKqw2T1GbA/w400-h323/Markets2022May20.png" width="400" /></a></span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>LAST WEEK</b><br /><br />In another volatile week, data took a back seat as markets continued to focus on the Fed’s communication. Chair Powell’s comments on Tuesday cleared up any perceived dovishness during the last FOMC meeting and delivered the kind of hawkish message needed to tame yields and the USD. The Fed “wouldn’t hesitate” to slow the economy if needed, would “consider moving more aggressively” if inflation doesn’t come down and sees the drop in markets as “what we need.” It seems the Fed are more willing to throw the markets under the bus now that they are banned from holding individual stocks.<br /><br />10-year yields dropped for the second week in a row, and USD weakness helped EURUSD reverse from the 1.035 level at the 2016 low. Meanwhile, stock markets were caught in a volatile crossfire. Falling yields are a plus, but the driver behind the falls—recession—is a negative. SPX made new bear market lows on Friday and looked all set to crash on Monday were it not for the late recovery, after it touched fibonacci retracement levels.</span><br /><br /><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was NDX, down 4.45%, it's seventh red week. The top forex mover was NZDUSD up 2.14%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were surprisingly flat, and once again, FANGs unevenly underperformed similarly to last week.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's EURUSD long made 1.38%, which means I am ahead 9.46% this year, with 11/18 (61.1%) wins. This week I think AUDJPY is toppy so I am selling it.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLQwArH-opNqpmLP-tlXuEWdaQ7Hsjx7drh1OLSFgUKRG3c8-Iaiwj6e5leOe9Lg04Wkwl6oT6_QRPb3ErL7NaoMKQHn8N2psyblFRebV2PkCl82ljVfxnzRXrRMJBR0g45WCNlEPOagUxDYsrORefCN6EWPx5kiitEfgxFsX4TN0lFI8BfQnsrJO3Xw/s523/Table2022May20.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="523" data-original-width="493" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLQwArH-opNqpmLP-tlXuEWdaQ7Hsjx7drh1OLSFgUKRG3c8-Iaiwj6e5leOe9Lg04Wkwl6oT6_QRPb3ErL7NaoMKQHn8N2psyblFRebV2PkCl82ljVfxnzRXrRMJBR0g45WCNlEPOagUxDYsrORefCN6EWPx5kiitEfgxFsX4TN0lFI8BfQnsrJO3Xw/w378-h400/Table2022May20.png" width="378" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">NEXT WEEK</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The final full week of May doesn't offer much in the way of scheduled macro news, except for US PCE figures. PCE is the Fed's preferred method of measuring inflation, and Thursday's QoQ print can be contrasted again rising CPI. We also have the FOMC minutes which will be scrutinised closely, particularly for the view on the pace of rate hikes.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Otherwise the market declines do seem to have stabilised for now, although there is no clear consolidation support yet. On SPX, 3835 was the 38.2% retracement of March 2020 low, and 23.6% retracement of the 2009 low, so an upturn seems likely.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i></i></b><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Monday May 23</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">08:00 Germany IFO Sentiment</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">16:15 BoE Governor Bailey speech</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">23:00 Australia S&P PMIs</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Tuesday May 24</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">07:30 Germany S&P PMIs (Mfr e54.3 p54.6)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">08:00 Eurozone S&P PMIs (Comp e55.78 p55.8)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">08:30 UK S&P PMIs (Svcs e58.7 p58.9)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">13:45 US S&P PMIs</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">14:00 US New Home Sales</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">23:45 RBA Ellis speech</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Wednesday May 25</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">06:00 Germany Q1 GDP</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">08:00 EU Financial Stability Review</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">11:05 BoJ Governor Kuroda</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Durable/ND Capital Goods</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">18:00 FOMC Minutes</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Thursday May 26</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US PCE QoQ (e5.2% p5.2%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Q1 GDP (Annualised e-1.4% p-1.4%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Jobless Claims</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 Canada Retail Sales</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">14:00 US Pending Home Sales</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">23:30 Tokyo CPI</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Friday May 27</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">01:30 Aus Retail Sales</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US PCE (MoM e0.4% p0.3%, YoY e4.6% p5.2%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">14:00 Michigan CSI</span></p></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0Parque del Rey, 10, 35580 Playa Blanca, Las Palmas, Spain28.8695639 -13.839383928.869094125444612 -13.839920341802978 28.870033674555387 -13.838847458197021tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-20488297697967446582022-05-15T19:47:00.002+01:002022-05-15T19:47:36.566+01:00Week to May 13th<p style="text-align: left;"></p><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Early signs of a trend change</span></b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><b>MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURUSD</b></span></div><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqfvpId1FX0O-cdCtbCQmDXFR8K2SemToreO5XSOngNAl9Bq-kaIVxCp9ZtrD4sAdPpodUoSKpAwPkdAroa06QVuOUHa6j3Sgn1srrsxKMbTdncbvDb2sB3_h-N-04rZc9CiUReCiO3qRrLFZJDBwDn-cs6jRRpopDExuE85Y8lFxs6QbY82tLwATmvg/s1594/Markets2022May13.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqfvpId1FX0O-cdCtbCQmDXFR8K2SemToreO5XSOngNAl9Bq-kaIVxCp9ZtrD4sAdPpodUoSKpAwPkdAroa06QVuOUHa6j3Sgn1srrsxKMbTdncbvDb2sB3_h-N-04rZc9CiUReCiO3qRrLFZJDBwDn-cs6jRRpopDExuE85Y8lFxs6QbY82tLwATmvg/w400-h323/Markets2022May13.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">In a week that was light on data, but packed with significant action, the only real event worth mentioning was the CPI print out of the US. This showed some slowing in inflation but was still far from comfortable reading for the markets or the Fed. Even so, it helped mark a change as long-term yields started to pull back. While this may help stocks in the near-term, the catalyst is hardly encouraging; yields are starting to price in a recession. The 3m 10y spread dropped sharply from 2.26% on May 6 to 1.88% this week. With the Fed set to hike 50bps next month and July, the spread could invert next quarter, in which case a recession is almost guaranteed.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week’s market price action was noteworthy for several reasons. Firstly, it showed a change in character. There was no Monday/Tuesday bottom and weak Thursday/Friday as previous weeks. In fact, it was almost the opposite with a solid Friday close which cemented weekly reversal patterns. These reversals came from some significant areas.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><b><span style="font-family: arial;">WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was DAX, back up after three red weeks. The top forex mover was GBPAUD down 2.05%. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell hard, and once again, some FANGs underperformed. AAPL finally fell victim with the other FANGs whereas NFLX made a small recovery.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's GBPAUD long made 1.33%, which means I am ahead 8.08% this year, with 10/16 (62.5%) wins. This week I think EURUSD is well oversold so I am buying it.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj72IDkxzdbmOagDhxWBmj0ApJlPK6JJKfIXatGbCDY7FdqmOF0eNHuJEmJzByAHDG89EwQBHgJq4kyTkL_XAskJShJ9dYT0M4KpMiRYP8-AbSTrmf6tD-1nHEEyrbxiUSNGi8rqlIHxfj254ohMwSTqAbaK7BpGr9DqKYWaCkpnJ6gf_VwBYOsI64sjQ/s1050/Table2022May13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1050" data-original-width="988" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj72IDkxzdbmOagDhxWBmj0ApJlPK6JJKfIXatGbCDY7FdqmOF0eNHuJEmJzByAHDG89EwQBHgJq4kyTkL_XAskJShJ9dYT0M4KpMiRYP8-AbSTrmf6tD-1nHEEyrbxiUSNGi8rqlIHxfj254ohMwSTqAbaK7BpGr9DqKYWaCkpnJ6gf_VwBYOsI64sjQ/w376-h400/Table2022May13.png" width="376" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</span></i></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><b><span style="font-family: arial;">NEXT WEEK</span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">There is no important US news this week, other that perhaps Retail Sales, so the main markets are likely to show the large two-way volatility often seen when VIX is over 30. Even outside the US, the influence are more on currencies. The all-important inflation reports from Canada and the UK are the main macro releases, with Retail Sales also reported from China and the UK, the former estimating further contraction.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Monday May 16</span></i></b><br /><b><span style="font-family: arial;">02:00 China Retail Sales (e-6% p-3.5%)</span></b><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">09:00 EC Economic Growth Forecasts</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Tuesday May 17</span></i></b><br /><b><span style="font-family: arial;">01:30 RBA Meeting Minutes</span></b><br /><b><span style="font-family: arial;">06:00 UK Unemployment (e3.6% p3.8%)</span></b><br /><b><span style="font-family: arial;">09:00 Eurozone Q1 Prelim GDP (YoY e5% p5%)</span></b><br /><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM e0.6% p0.5%)</span></b><br /><b><span style="font-family: arial;">23:50 Japan Q1 GDP (QoQ e-0.3% p1.1%)</span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Wednesday May 18</span></i></b><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">00:30 Aus Wage Price Index</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">04:30 Japan Industrial Production</span><br /><b><span style="font-family: arial;">06:00 UK CPI (p7%)</span></b><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">09:00 Eurozone CPI</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Building Permits/Housing Starts</span><br /><b><span style="font-family: arial;">14:30 Canada BoC CPI (Core YoY e5.5% p5.5%)</span></b><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">23:50 Japan Imports/Exports/TB</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Thursday May 19</span></i></b><br /><b><span style="font-family: arial;">01:30 Aus Jobs/UnEmp (UnEmp e4.1% p4.0%)</span></b><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">11:30 ECB MPC Minutes</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Jobless Claims</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 Philly Fed Mfr Survey</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">23:30 Japan National CPI</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Friday May 20</span></i></b><br /><b><span style="font-family: arial;">01:30 PBoC Interest Rate Decision (p3.7%)</span></b><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">06:00 UK Retail Sales</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">06:00 UK PPI</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">07:30 BoE Pill speech</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence</span></div><p></p>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0Shepton Mallet51.213161 -2.542630751.207784352996626 -2.5512137688476564 51.218537647003373 -2.5340476311523439tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-91337062558027407722022-05-07T18:50:00.002+01:002022-05-07T18:51:49.338+01:00Week to May 7th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><b>Resolution of Fed policy only reverses trends for a few hours</b></i></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY GBPAUD</span></b></div><br /><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8ob8gnETs7_AILc5ztkmKGo4uGdR8WxUT6dUIX1hQ9vC9qYnR4VGrvufOhwWlc5f9K2aMc64wp2rgmdbRkuvZRg3i_JMThGZqOxYQA_B6lBS2SCwlzOyK3lc28YqZNNOtpmA1JMlyGPbiN6yp8jy2-IP7QB23LJqv6EBhc2AvYO93FVlj4tZB-lf_gA/s1594/Markets2022May06.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8ob8gnETs7_AILc5ztkmKGo4uGdR8WxUT6dUIX1hQ9vC9qYnR4VGrvufOhwWlc5f9K2aMc64wp2rgmdbRkuvZRg3i_JMThGZqOxYQA_B6lBS2SCwlzOyK3lc28YqZNNOtpmA1JMlyGPbiN6yp8jy2-IP7QB23LJqv6EBhc2AvYO93FVlj4tZB-lf_gA/w400-h323/Markets2022May06.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b><br /><br />The long-awaited 50bp rate hike occurred as expected on Wednesday, and a comment by Chair Powell that the Fed were not considering a 75bp bhike in June (despite Fed Bulllard's hawkish comments) caused a spike with SPX up 3.4% and NDX up 4.7% in the remaining 90 minutes of the session . This move was fully retraced in the US Thursday morning session, as were gains made.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In another volatile week, the RBA made a hawkish hike, the BoE made a dovish hike, and the Fed were somewhere in-between. The latter made all the headlines and led to the strongest session since 2020. This was all given back just as quickly on Thursday and Friday and the SPX closed the week pretty much where it opened, creating doji patterns on the weekly chart and daily chart. This signals indecision, which is apt as there no consensus on what the Fed will do next. Despite Chair Powell saying the Fed were not “actively considering” 75bps hikes, <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html"><span class="s1" style="color: #dca10d;">the markets are assigning a 83% chance of a 75bps hike in June</span></a>. They clearly believe the Fed has lost the battle with inflation and will have to play catch up. This view can be seen in the continued collapse in long bonds, with TLT down over –5% on the week, and USD making a new 2022 high on Friday.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week’s action was a challenge to trade and there were rumours of a fund blowing up during Thursday’s crash. It certainly tested our bullish view, but Friday’s close was off the lows and the weekly doji could lead to a reversal. Bulls now want to see the Fed take a “whatever it takes” stance on inflation in the hope they can ease off later so the terminal rate comes in less than expected. Again, we note that 10Y yields and DXY both have weekly and monthly exhaustion signals, but since these are long-term, the short-term charts could still overshoot. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br /><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was DAX for the third week, down 3%. The top forex mover was GBPAUD down 2.05%. Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to slide, and once again, some FANGs underperformed. Yet again AAPL was relatively unscathed.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's GBPAUD short was the worst trade I could possibly have done, losing 2.05%, which means I am ahead 6.75% this year, with 9/16 (56%) wins. This week I am doing a reversal trade and buying GBPAUD again.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgKk9BHFu6J6p5EUkYo3v94qA6HJJR50E4RZ6z8SwXv9WZyZopWD-4llewvkDecQm6guz5M4Dr1bZCCI4x8rDJcophybDSnS7E1rKfPBb0Om5k_NaQbLUIKYHMip-F0O3RtC7M0p_612Dh4HjjJflvgHUM33bxWkPVyPYNakeoQDuxZD7zQ46M7WSCMA/s522/Table2022May06.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="522" data-original-width="491" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgKk9BHFu6J6p5EUkYo3v94qA6HJJR50E4RZ6z8SwXv9WZyZopWD-4llewvkDecQm6guz5M4Dr1bZCCI4x8rDJcophybDSnS7E1rKfPBb0Om5k_NaQbLUIKYHMip-F0O3RtC7M0p_612Dh4HjjJflvgHUM33bxWkPVyPYNakeoQDuxZD7zQ46M7WSCMA/s320/Table2022May06.png" width="301" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: arial;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></div></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i><br /><b>NEXT WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There is only one important release next week which is US inflation (CPI) on Wednesday. As we have stated before, the unemployment part of the Fed dual mandate is satisfied, so the primary indicator of the rate hike path in now inflation, given that the Ukraine effect has receded. In addition to the US, there are inflation reports from Germany and China on the same day. The week is also heavy with CB speakers, with three Fed speakers on Tuesday. Earnings next week is mainly China tech companies.<br /><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Monday May 9</i></b><br />02:00 China Imports/Exports/TB<br />13:00 BoE Saunders speech<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Tuesday May 10</i></b><br />09:00 Germany ZEW Surveys<br />11:40 Fed Williams speech<br />17:00 Fed Waller speech<br />17:20 ECB De Guindos speech<br />19:00 Fed Mester speech<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Wednesday May 11</i></b><br /><b>01:30 China CPI (e1.9% p1.5%)</b><br />06:00 ECB Elderson speech<br /><b>06:00 Germany CPI (e7.8% p7.8%)</b><br />08:00 ECB President Lagarde speech<br />09:30 DE10Y Bond Auction<br />12:20 ECB Schnabel speech<br /><b>12:30 US CPI (Core e6.0% p6.5%)</b><br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Thursday May 12</i></b><br /><b>06:00 UK Q1 GDP (QoQ e1.0% p1.3%)</b><br />12:30 US Jobless Claims<br />12:30 US PPI<br />15:35 BoC Gravelle speech<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Friday May 13</i></b><br />02:00 RBA Bullock speech<br />07:00 ECB De Guindos speech<br /><b>14:00 Michigan CSI (e63.6 p65.2)</b><br />16:00 ECB Schnabel speech</span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com09 Mellor Rd, Cheadle Hulme, Cheadle SK8 5AT, UK53.3744299 -2.188644453.374109867532361 -2.1891808418029783 53.374749932467644 -2.1881079581970213tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-87270715118974247822022-04-30T16:00:00.014+01:002022-05-02T14:38:34.490+01:00Week to Apr 29th<p></p><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span><i> NDX worst YTD ever, DXY at 5yr highs</i></span></b></div><b style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY GBPAUD</span></b></div></b><p></p><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTKJhjHfU-mvXAmqKadD-zWTpboxX84tPFO1YhTxihW53bpCyiRKaMD-zrSxyUSSio-t4xqH6u_pm81tg0OpZxzzeKWD6J5TIY6sZD3wVo_OEzOlZoeMpK9HdpvtxQ439cJmCCVeIxhAtGoaPOxtNxMDSfHBG3VhpGmxp89X0daQKe8dKV74tDAbOuUQ/s1594/Markets2022Apr29.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTKJhjHfU-mvXAmqKadD-zWTpboxX84tPFO1YhTxihW53bpCyiRKaMD-zrSxyUSSio-t4xqH6u_pm81tg0OpZxzzeKWD6J5TIY6sZD3wVo_OEzOlZoeMpK9HdpvtxQ439cJmCCVeIxhAtGoaPOxtNxMDSfHBG3VhpGmxp89X0daQKe8dKV74tDAbOuUQ/w400-h323/Markets2022Apr29.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b>In the last week of April, continued volatility created some ominous monthly candles. NDX was down –13.3%, its largest monthly decline since 2008 and the worst start to the year ever, helped along by poor earnings from the likes of GOOGL and AMZN. A close at the low of the week and month suggests May should start off weak (more on this later) but there will then be a window to reverse from further lows. Indeed, the intra-week pattern next week could follow the same general pattern as last week, and the week before; that is early weakness leads to a mid-week bounce followed by a late sell off into Friday’s close.<br /><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b>The biggest index mover was rate-sensitive NDX for the third week, down 3.76%, nearly 14% in four weeks. The huge weight of AMZN, who missed on earnings, also affected SPX. The top forex mover was EURUSD down 2.67%. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell again, and FANGs severely underperformed, with NFLX now down 73% in six months. Once again AAPL was relatively unscathed.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Last week's EURUSD short position gained 2.67%, which means I am ahead 8.80% this year, with 9/15 (60%) wins. This week I am betting the BoE will be more hawkish than the RBA and buying GBPAUD.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><br /></i></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsRWQTguqk1szGZ83UsDGDM10AOuU5mosXOg8OBsz_w7byuARePKIgOQigDrOx-rNmGcMaR__y5xgaaCx-wUPgVGBwTaQ-VqhL-jEXcbocKnMDtotA0I_rPKYs68aGt8AkaOqUlO1BGwhcyU9d_e_lZAdaovupCNSr3pBzWpZ6crNW_yB_YdTKUWvSNw/s525/Table2022Apr29.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="525" data-original-width="495" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsRWQTguqk1szGZ83UsDGDM10AOuU5mosXOg8OBsz_w7byuARePKIgOQigDrOx-rNmGcMaR__y5xgaaCx-wUPgVGBwTaQ-VqhL-jEXcbocKnMDtotA0I_rPKYs68aGt8AkaOqUlO1BGwhcyU9d_e_lZAdaovupCNSr3pBzWpZ6crNW_yB_YdTKUWvSNw/w378-h400/Table2022Apr29.png" width="378" /></a></div><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><br /></i></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i style="font-family: arial;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i><br /><b>NEXT WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The big index names have now reported, so the focus moves back to macro, and the key event of the week is the Fed, now expected to raise rates by 50bp on Wednesday. This is 99% priced in at CME Fedwatch, and so there ought to be a small relief rally (sell the rumor, buy the news) because it is not 75bp. As previously stated, the problem area of the Fed's dual mandate is inflation, not jobs, which are recovering steadily, meaning that NFP is not the primary focus, although there will no doubt be a short-term reaction to the upside on either a big miss or a strong beat.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Elsewhere rate hikes are also expected in Australia and the UK. The two currencies have had rather difference recent history, with AUD strong and GBP weak. Certainty on the rate hike path may normalise things. Other news is less important, with a raft of PMIs from S&P (replacing Markit) only ISM PMIs really stand out, and would have to be well wide of estimates to make a difference.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Japan is closed Monday to Thursday, and the UK is closed on Monday, meaning forex will be low volume.<br /><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><br /><b><i>Monday May 2</i></b><br /><b>06:00 Germany Retail Sales (p7%)</b><br />07:55 Germany S&P Mfr PMI<br />09:00 Eurozone Business/Consumer Confidence<br />13:30 Canada S&P Mfr PMI<br />13:45 US S&P Mfr PMI<br /><b>14:00 US ISM Mfr PMI (e58.0 p57.1)</b><br />23:30 RBA Ellis speech</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Tuesday May 3</i></b><br />01:00 Aus TD Securities CPI<br /><b>04:30 RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% p0.10%)</b><br />07:55 Germany Unemp<br />08:30 UK S&P Mfr PMI<br />09:00 Eurozone Unemp<br /><b>13:00 ECB President Lagarde speech</b><br />14:00 US Factory Orders<br />16:30 BoC Rogers speech<br />22:30 Aus AiG Construction Index<br />23:00 Aus S&P Services PMI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Wednesday May 4</i></b><br /><b>01:30 Aus Retail Sales (e0.5% p1.8%)</b><br />06:00 Germany Trade Balance<br />07:55 Germany Composite PMI<br />08:00 Eurozone Composite PMI<br /><b>09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (e1% p5%)</b><br />09:30 DE10Y Bond Auction<br /><b>12:15 US ADP (e370k p455k)</b><br />12:30 US Trade Balance<br />12:30 Canada Trade Balance<br />13:45 US S&P Comp/Svcs PMI<br /><b>14:00 US ISM Services PMI (e59.0 p58.3)</b><br /><b>18:00 Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e1.0% p0.5%)</b><br /><b>18:30 FOMC Press Conference</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Thursday May 5</i></b><br />01:30 Aus Building Permits<br />01:30 Aus Trade Balance<br />01:45 China Caixin Svcs PMI<br />06:00 Germany Factory Orders<br />08:00 OPEC Meeting<br />10:30 ECB Lane speech<br /><b>11:00 BoE Rate Decision/Statement</b><br /><b>11:30 BoE Governor Bailey speech</b><br />12:30 US Jobless Claims<br />13:40 BoC Schembri speech<br />23:30 Tokyo CPI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Friday May 6</i></b><br /><b>01:30 RBA MPC Minutes</b><br /><b>12:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e400k p431k)</b><br /><b>12:30 Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (UnEmp e5.4% p5.3%)</b><br />14:00 Canada Ivey PMI</span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0Tara Hill, Victoria Rd, Bolton BL1 5AY, UK53.5805187 -2.486228553.580200222364688 -2.4867649418029787 53.58083717763531 -2.4856920581970217tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-71622428077292869832022-04-24T13:59:00.004+01:002022-05-02T14:09:33.186+01:00Week to Apr 22nd<p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Markets hit by Fed comments. 50bp hike looms.</span></b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><b>MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL EURUSD</b></span></div><div style="font-style: italic; text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></div><p></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY8-eWimsB7jt6_ZGiujil95IdhmAXCcRoWFhp9j8pO0NtT31PiGWH-e2ekH68qTF1ot5O5aYqA5L-dX0Oy_1QXfMJ9pFXuFDQ_HqE_PHsP80ZVgX3naB24z-yc9RR4TZMGb_mpKoc1rOr43FFlshypXnfz0K5Dv6C9-tSsWsG9KX16z6aDFuMFvqrRw/s1594/Markets2022Apr22.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY8-eWimsB7jt6_ZGiujil95IdhmAXCcRoWFhp9j8pO0NtT31PiGWH-e2ekH68qTF1ot5O5aYqA5L-dX0Oy_1QXfMJ9pFXuFDQ_HqE_PHsP80ZVgX3naB24z-yc9RR4TZMGb_mpKoc1rOr43FFlshypXnfz0K5Dv6C9-tSsWsG9KX16z6aDFuMFvqrRw/w400-h323/Markets2022Apr22.png" width="400" /></a></span></b></div><b><span style="font-family: arial;">LAST WEEK</span></b><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Stock markets managed a few strong sessions but faded following more hawkish Fed signals indicating the May rate hike would be 50bp not 25bp. DAX and NKY were relatively unscathed, but US markets dropped to new April lows by the end of the week and the weak close presents a similar situation to last week—continuation is likely on Monday and Tuesday.</span><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was rate-sensitive NDX which was down 3.98%, over 7% in two weeks. Clearly rates are still the issue, as other indices moved much less. The top forex mover was EURNZD up 2.19%. Bitcoin and Ethereum pulled back again, and FANGs severely underperformed, after NFLX reported the first reduction in subscribers for a decade. Only AAPL was relatively unscathed.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's EURAUD long position gained 2.17%, which means I am ahead 6.13% this year, with 8/15 (53%) wins. This week I am selling EURUSD.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMbX-fYzsw96mk03fmaCTmOc0113IezJsu0I3_MeVRe5S3So5nds6qdgzZqrK7hwX5PSOkT6DBbshiyg2AnwKrk8OWxJye280RJ2AAIlFHtC_x9yWkhF8obAz5v3esahxeUinzQ1IcIUcVMUoxZjMKRtZORDTcK5P2iWPkZOhYGld9q1p7KAbSvHlIYw/s577/Table2022Apr22.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="577" data-original-width="547" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMbX-fYzsw96mk03fmaCTmOc0113IezJsu0I3_MeVRe5S3So5nds6qdgzZqrK7hwX5PSOkT6DBbshiyg2AnwKrk8OWxJye280RJ2AAIlFHtC_x9yWkhF8obAz5v3esahxeUinzQ1IcIUcVMUoxZjMKRtZORDTcK5P2iWPkZOhYGld9q1p7KAbSvHlIYw/w379-h400/Table2022Apr22.png" width="379" /></a></div><p></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">NEXT WEEK</span></b></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Next week is the big week for earnings, in particular for NDX, with over 42% by weight of the index (including AAPL MSFT GOOGL INTC FB) reporting. These companies are also 22% of SPX. NDX has been severely hit by the rate hike narrative, and entered bear market territory last week. Focus will be in all cases on unit metrics rather than just earnings and revenue. News from the US is again light, with only Durable Goods and GDP of note. Inflation is reported from Australia, Eurozone and Germany, and again estimates show it is still increasing.</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Monday April 25</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">08:00 Germany IFO Sentiment</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">15:00 BoC Governor Macklem speech</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">15:00 BoC Rogers speech</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Tuesday April 26</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Durable/ND Capital Goods (DG e1.0% p-2.1%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:55 BoC Lane speech</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">13:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">14:00 US Consumer Confidence</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">14:00 US New Home Sales</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Wednesday April 27</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">01:30 Australia CPI (RBA Mean e1.2% p1.0%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">14:00 US Pending Home Sales</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">23:50 Japan Retail Sales</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Thursday April 28</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">03:00 BoJ Rate Decision/Statement (e-0.1% hold)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">06:00 BoJ Press Conference</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">09:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:00 Germany CPI (e7.6% p7.6%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Q1 GDP (e1.0% p6.9%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Jobless Claims</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US PCE QoQ</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Friday April 29</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">01:45 China Caixin Mfr PMI</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">06:00 Germany Q1 GDP (QoQ e0.2% p-0.3%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY e5.1% p4.6%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">09:00 Eurozone CPI (Core e3.1% p2.9%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US PCE MoM & YoY</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 Canada GDP</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">13:45 Chicago PMI</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">14:00 Michigan CSI</span></p></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-26580594560900907612022-04-17T18:40:00.003+01:002022-04-17T18:41:12.475+01:00Week to Apr 15th<p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Markets fall despite CPI miss/MSCI beat. EUR down on dovish ECB</span></b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><b>MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURAUD</b></span></div><p></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC_RKY-BvomHJEkunsXYaGSVDStlIbpNXOcrS_9zqMP3X1tTlHJp0caDAr79qZukUEvZ4TWMpJpKPyJskLd1ZhPxeOU-0iZsGRGgma8VXm5ksyMbO916UNOXJjayMfY5ImXSSlxm0FWj4Yh7-cxnPIlb_KAhQjIMYiX4lxB-XSgY2BKyj-x6N4dAri9g/s1594/Markets2022Apr15.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1594" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC_RKY-BvomHJEkunsXYaGSVDStlIbpNXOcrS_9zqMP3X1tTlHJp0caDAr79qZukUEvZ4TWMpJpKPyJskLd1ZhPxeOU-0iZsGRGgma8VXm5ksyMbO916UNOXJjayMfY5ImXSSlxm0FWj4Yh7-cxnPIlb_KAhQjIMYiX4lxB-XSgY2BKyj-x6N4dAri9g/w400-h323/Markets2022Apr15.png" width="400" /></a></span></b></div><b><span style="font-family: arial;">LAST WEEK</span></b><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In a shortened Easter week, stock markets attempted to strike a bottom on ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ but failed to break out of corrective channels and NDX closed the week right at the low. Meanwhile, 10-year yields and the US dollar broke to yet more 2022 highs with the US10Y reaching 2.82% and DXY breaking above 100. The USD was helped on by a 1c collapse in EUR triggered by the ECB meeting and the snail’s pace the bank has mapped towards normalization.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Earnings season opened with, as always, the major banks and the top DJIA stock UNH reporting. The reactions were briefly as you would expect, with UNH, MS and C all beating on EPS and revenue, and rising 2% briefly. JPM missed on EPS and WFC missed on revenue, both fell sharply. A clear sign of a bearish market is when beats rise less than misses fall. US CPI at 6.5% was lower than the 6.6% estimate, but still higher than last month. The market didn’t like it. Even the surprise strong beat on Michigan CSI on Friday (65.7 vs 59.0 est) could not lift spirits.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">With so many markets closing right at weekly (some at yearly) highs or lows, it would be normal to see continuation of Thursday's moves early next week. However, there are some major reversals setting up and we can look for a dollar top in the coming sessions followed slightly later by yields topping out towards the end of the month. Stocks should turn higher by the latest on Tuesday and DAX looks ready to run sooner than most.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was rate-sensitive NDX which was down 3.03%,. Clearly this was the issue, as other indices moved much less. The top forex mover was GBPJPY up 1.91%. Bitcoin and Ethereum pulled back again, and again FANGs underperformed NDX as a whole..</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's EURAUD long position gained 0.12%, which means I am ahead 3.96% this year, with 7/14 (50%) wins. This week I am buying EURAUD again.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMIDCT6A7-RnYGqd8ilSJpKgGTioik6Jgvr0oBgECA9er4N35Mfx1VcC_12Wk60er7DrwIxBxJYHNRIh3PVUf6P9Pm-sdAubUKavFh7_qjo_9al2kcM-GrGxMDBMijWJjPyOK53TYSrsmjpYSlS5bveK_u28nWKIODw-GfL1kVoaG_AbSKvjY9QXx5ww/s579/Table2022April15.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="579" data-original-width="549" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMIDCT6A7-RnYGqd8ilSJpKgGTioik6Jgvr0oBgECA9er4N35Mfx1VcC_12Wk60er7DrwIxBxJYHNRIh3PVUf6P9Pm-sdAubUKavFh7_qjo_9al2kcM-GrGxMDBMijWJjPyOK53TYSrsmjpYSlS5bveK_u28nWKIODw-GfL1kVoaG_AbSKvjY9QXx5ww/w379-h400/Table2022April15.png" width="379" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">NEXT WEEK</span></b></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In the absence of any major news, the focus is likely to be on earnings, with reports from so-called bellwether IBM and heavyweight JNJ (together 5.85% of DJIA), and NFLX and TSLA (5.95% of NDX). The scheduled macro news is primarily from outside the US, with China and Canada most prominent. Markets seem to have largely discounted Ukraine, and priced in the rate hike schedule. Note Europe is closed on Monday for the Easter break.</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i></i></b><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Monday April 18</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">02:00 China GDP (YoY e4.4% p4.0%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY e0.7% p6.7%)</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Tuesday April 19</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">01:30 RBA MPC Minutes</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">04:30 Japan Ind Production</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">11:00 JNJ Earnings</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Building Permits/Housing Starts</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">20:00 NFLX, IBM Earnings</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">23:50 Japan Imports/Exports/TB</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Wednesday April 20</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">01:15 PBoC Rate Decision/Statement (e3.7% hold)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">06:00 Germany PPI</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">09:00 Eurozone Ind Production</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 Canada BoC CPI (Core YoY e5.0% p4.8%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">21:00 TSLA Earnings</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Thursday April 21</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">09:00 Eurozone CPI</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Jobless Claims</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 Philly Fed Mfr Survey(Apr)</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">16:30 BoE Governor Bailey speech</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">22:00 Australia PMIs</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">23:30 Japan National CPI</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Friday April 22</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">06:00 UK Retail Sales</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">07:30 Germany PMIs (Mfr e54.4 p56.9)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">08:00 Eurozone PMIs (Comp e54.0 p54.9)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">08:30 UK PMIs (Svcs e60.3 p62.6)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 Canada Retail Sales (e-0.5% p3.2%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">13:45 US PMIs</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">14:30 BoE Governor Bailey speech</span></b></p></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0Tara Hill, Victoria Rd, Bolton BL1 5AY, UK53.5805187 -2.486228553.579244768481345 -2.4883742672119142 53.581792631518653 -2.4840827327880861tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-84618912271447280402022-04-09T14:32:00.001+01:002022-04-09T14:32:12.345+01:00Week to Apr 8th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><b>Dollar and yields surge on hawkish Fed marks. FTSE outperforms</b></i></div><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b>MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURAUD</b></div></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWZ5Rf9oqTE0RGePam232vMhxwXxo3d1fkSfJQe_pTu68w3BbJ3i1Rmr2QmOg3bW9mhPjsEtFPO9IoMEBxrAKO57Vgmwfdg79HRknnt9qQPovYlYqcbv-qmPXbtA41qyW5rFpgQdfqcsRWkGZLayq5Mo2EuUA5iQDO8aulNoMYqg92a_AZ8LcfD73w7w/s1594/Markets2022Apr08.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1594" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWZ5Rf9oqTE0RGePam232vMhxwXxo3d1fkSfJQe_pTu68w3BbJ3i1Rmr2QmOg3bW9mhPjsEtFPO9IoMEBxrAKO57Vgmwfdg79HRknnt9qQPovYlYqcbv-qmPXbtA41qyW5rFpgQdfqcsRWkGZLayq5Mo2EuUA5iQDO8aulNoMYqg92a_AZ8LcfD73w7w/w400-h297/Markets2022Apr08.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Most equity markets fell this week on hawkish comments from Fed Brainard and also the FOMC minutes where it was reported that 50bp rate hikes “could be appropriate”. The exception was the oil and bank heavy UK FTSE which came within a whisker of a 44-month high. There was little scheduled data, and as the Ukraine stalemate continues, the war fades from traders’ minds (SPX underperformed DAX), and focus is on rate hikes, and inflation which is driving them (see next week). The same factors drove the dollar to a new 11-month high, and yields to a 3-year high, whilst the yield curve retraced last week's move back into positive territory. JPY, gold and silver had inside weeks. Other metals and oil had reduced volatilty as they consolidate off the highs.<br /><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was rate-sentitive NDX which was down 3.59%. The top forex mover EURUSD down 1.59%. Bitcoin and Ethereum pulled back. FANGs underperformed NDX as a whole..</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Last week's EURJPY long position lost 0.10%, which means I am ahead 3.84% this year, with 6/13 (46%) wins. This week I am buying the oversold EURAUD<br /><br /><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiFbbDYdI4ZJzAf7QTXSXRXOs6qLCD6WriePlb_MxxlxXgvAt-4orB3JrRcn05Vpc1AYBHVLs5V-Ezjoo8BC3hb871wpYckasw81X4dNvNtie-xORJIlpNAhWJHCdByhK2zeRGL5IaV5mRcompbALeJNet70y2xIkoWhDvzV9BhSVaZs3YVXdvcHRB8A/s1048/Table2022Apr08.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1048" data-original-width="988" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiFbbDYdI4ZJzAf7QTXSXRXOs6qLCD6WriePlb_MxxlxXgvAt-4orB3JrRcn05Vpc1AYBHVLs5V-Ezjoo8BC3hb871wpYckasw81X4dNvNtie-xORJIlpNAhWJHCdByhK2zeRGL5IaV5mRcompbALeJNet70y2xIkoWhDvzV9BhSVaZs3YVXdvcHRB8A/s320/Table2022Apr08.png" width="302" /></a></div><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></span></div><div><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b>NEXT WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Earnings season starts next week, with as always JPM first out of the door on Wednesday, followed by WFC, C and GS the next day. Also Thursday sees the ECB rate decision meeting and press conference. We have inflation from the UK and China as well as the all-important US, which are all forecast to rise, a miss on this print would be positive for stocks short-term. Finally, this is Easter week, and markets are closed for Good Friday (UK and Germany have a four day break with Monday off as well)<br /><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><br /><b><i>Monday April 11</i></b><br />01:00 BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech<br /><b>01:30 China CPI (e1.2% p0.9%)</b><br />06:00 UK GDP MoM<br />06:00 UK Ind/Mfr Production<br />11:00 UK NIESR GDP Est (time approx.)<br />13:30 Fed Bowman speech<br />16:00 Fed Williams speech</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Tuesday April 12</i></b><br /><b>06:00 UK Claimant Count/AHE/UnEmp (UE e3.8% p3.9%)</b><br /><b>06:00 Germany CPI (e7.6% p7.6%)</b><br /><b>08:00 ECB Bank Lending Survey</b><br />09:00 Germany ZEW Sentiment<br /><b>12:30 US CPI (Core e6.6% p6.4%)</b><br />16:10 Fed Brainard speech<br />18:00 US Monthly Budget Statement</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Wednesday April 13</i></b><br />00:30 Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence<br />02:00 China Imports/Exports/TB<br /><b>06:00 UK CPI (e6.6% p6.2%)</b><br /><b>06:15 BoJ Governor Kuroda speech</b><br />09:30 DE10Y Bond Auction<br />12:30 US PPI<br /><b>14:00 BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e0.5% hold)</b><br /><b>15:15 BoC Press Conference</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Thursday April 14</i></b><br />01:00 Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations<br /><b>01:30 Aus Jobs/Unemp (UE p4.0%)</b><br />04:30 Japan Ind Production<br />05:00 China FDI (time approx.)<br /><b>11:45 ECB Rate Decision/Statement (e0% hold)</b><br />12:30 US Jobless Claims<br />12:30 US Retail Sales<br />12:30 ECB Pres Lagarde Presser<br /><b>14:00 Michigan CSI (e60.6 p59.4)</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Friday April 15</i></b><br />No significant news, markets closed</span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-26360388125043661752022-04-02T16:14:00.007+01:002022-04-02T16:16:02.257+01:00Week to Apr 1st<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><i>Recovery continues with ruble up and oil down</i></b></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURJPY</span></b></div><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr99YVEnzWR6vZWPlYbR7L0UWXeI2RFaJBTYu90dj-zd65MQ0LO3I_WOvFy3hkCv7o1tOcTRmgNPpGi9WAPf0uraXk5WZ-2A-go8fEceLDAZFJMg-qyWa3QAXJNW_TMxv9kPTn3UvMVcm4M952ElLra-JGSo7CZk3YeMYBR9niAkSoklYktRSL0Fz_7Q/s1594/Markets2022Apr01.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1594" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr99YVEnzWR6vZWPlYbR7L0UWXeI2RFaJBTYu90dj-zd65MQ0LO3I_WOvFy3hkCv7o1tOcTRmgNPpGi9WAPf0uraXk5WZ-2A-go8fEceLDAZFJMg-qyWa3QAXJNW_TMxv9kPTn3UvMVcm4M952ElLra-JGSo7CZk3YeMYBR9niAkSoklYktRSL0Fz_7Q/w400-h297/Markets2022Apr01.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Following a slight thaw in Ukraine/Russia talks, equity markets made new post-invasion highs this week but could not hold them, falling back into last week’s range, with a V-shaped after the slight NFP miss. NDX outperformed for the third week after months of underperformance. The quarter ended badly, the worst Q1 since 2020.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Oil fell heavily on news that the US is releasing some of its strategic reserve. The ruble appreciated 38% (70% from last weeks low of 0.6c), news that Putin is insisting on ruble payments from “unfriendly countries” for energy. Apparently this does not apply to EUR, the week’s strongest currency. AUD and NZD fell back after strong runs. Bond yields fell back from the highs, as did Oil. Gold is in it’s third week off the highs, and retraced last week’s gain. The yen hit a new six year low, prompting BoJ buying action.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was NKY which rallied last week, down 1.72%. The top forex mover EURGBP up 0.99%. Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied again. Tech outperformed although FANGs were fairly flat.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's AUDJPY short position lost 0.14%, which means I am ahead 3.94% this year, with 6/12 (50%) wins. This week I am banking on a further move down in JPY, and recovering EUR, and buying EURJPY<br /><br /><b><br /></b></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJrWOOLu7cG9SEIwgTJOYfc9uO-UDN37GoagQQNvs-hD_qFRKZUPAPL0LVuSG3GCsGn2qgNY-4vS5ATjsAYBadnw5Eb_mZQ_fwYHzkinDyV8r1nT4hR7rdsJnYmb9svqpGJkG5m-fYUSYmIKLwk-c6qLAIylTpI2_aDABJgrcqmpz7x1heaDevrdBfaQ/s577/Table2022Apr01.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="577" data-original-width="549" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJrWOOLu7cG9SEIwgTJOYfc9uO-UDN37GoagQQNvs-hD_qFRKZUPAPL0LVuSG3GCsGn2qgNY-4vS5ATjsAYBadnw5Eb_mZQ_fwYHzkinDyV8r1nT4hR7rdsJnYmb9svqpGJkG5m-fYUSYmIKLwk-c6qLAIylTpI2_aDABJgrcqmpz7x1heaDevrdBfaQ/w380-h400/Table2022Apr01.png" width="380" /></a></div><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: arial;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i><br style="font-family: arial;" /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>NEXT WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Next week is light on US Data, with the key events Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes, and Tuesday’s ISM Services. CB speakers are heavy next week with four BoE and four Fed speeches. There is also the RBA Rate Decision, and trade balance figures from Germany, the US and Canada. Earnings season doesn’t start until next week with JPM on 13 Apr.<br /><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Monday April 4</i></b><br />06:00 Germany Trade Balance<br />08:30 BoE Mann speech<br /><b>09:05 BoE Governor Bailey speech</b><br />14:00 US Factory Orders<br />14:00 BoE Cunliffe speech<br />14:30 BoC Business Outlook Survey<br />22:30 Aus AiG Perf of Construction<br />23:00 Aus S&P Global Services PMI<br />23:30 Japan Overall Household Spending</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Tuesday April 5</i></b><br />00:30 Aus TD Securities Inflation (time approx.)<br /><b>04:30 RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.1% hold)</b><br />07:55 Germany Composite PMI<br />08:00 Eurozone Composite PMI<br />12:30 US Trade Balance<br />12:30 Canada Trade Balance<br />13:45 US Composite/Svcs PMI<br /><b>14:00 ISM Services PMI (e57.7 p56.5)</b><br />15:05 Fed Brainard speech<br />18:00 Fed Williams speech</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Wednesday April 6</i></b><br />01:45 China Caixin Services PMI<br />06:00 Germany Factory Orders<br />14:00 Canada Ivey PMI<br /><b>18:00 FOMC Minutes</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Thursday April 7</i></b><br /><b>01:30 Aus Imports/Exports/TB (TB p1.29B)</b><br /><b>09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (e4.2% p7.8%)</b><br />11:30 ECB MPC Minutes<br />12:15 BoE Pill speech<br />12:30 US Jobless Claims<br />13:00 Fed Bullard speech<br />20:05 Fed Williams speech<br />23:50 Japan Current Account</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Friday April 8</i></b><br /><b>12:30 Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (UnEmp e6.0% p5.5%)</b></span></div><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><b><i></i></b></p>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-70586675909203831112022-03-26T18:16:00.004+00:002022-03-26T18:16:41.362+00:00Week to Mar 25th<p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><i><b>New multi-year highs for USDJPY and yields. Tech recovers.</b></i></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL AUDJPY</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><b></b><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><br /></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><br /></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl4kBRJ8kGX_gE-INZdpjRyRusNQiXUYrOv_k2EDcvQOVxocNg2KCUL7BD--Y1yIjtLqc8j38QvtaBMHiGR7hJoRsRpJW8EJarXUCJ_Djj2wp60DybX8uwmGDKr8ry88lVlJ_vqvykdOJGSYu6t_HRrq0QOBNTFytpf4-Gf9ClA0p8frtA-LWqyaw5wA/s1594/Markets2022Mar25.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1594" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl4kBRJ8kGX_gE-INZdpjRyRusNQiXUYrOv_k2EDcvQOVxocNg2KCUL7BD--Y1yIjtLqc8j38QvtaBMHiGR7hJoRsRpJW8EJarXUCJ_Djj2wp60DybX8uwmGDKr8ry88lVlJ_vqvykdOJGSYu6t_HRrq0QOBNTFytpf4-Gf9ClA0p8frtA-LWqyaw5wA/w400-h297/Markets2022Mar25.png" width="400" /></a></b></div><b>LAST WEEK</b><p></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">With a stalemate in Ukraine, this week’s moves were much more muted, although US indices made post-invasion highs, although DAX did not, despite the EU PMI beats, although European consumer confidence dropped by the second largest amount on record. The dollar (DXY) had an inside week, as did the euro and Gold. The yen continued to fall with USDJPY making highs not seen since Dec 2015. AUDJPY hit highs last seen in August 2015, and both AUD and NZD made new 2021 highs against the dollar. Yields broke 2.4%, a new three year high, after Fed Powell's remarks preparing markets for 50bp increases. Oil continued to consolidate after the high two weeks ago, still managed to post an 8% weekly gain, such is the current volatility.</p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><i></i><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The biggest index mover was oversold NKY, up 4.93%. The top forex mover was again AUDJPY up 3.59%. The pair has risen 6.93% in two weeks. Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied again although less than last week. Tech outperformed again with all FANGs except NFLX up in line.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">\</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Last week's EURCAD long position lost 1.48%, which means I am ahead 4.08% this year, with 6/11 (54.5%) wins. This week I am banking on AUDJPY reversing and shorting it.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVGwtZFdA3kAF471zleoBMjymK2Iy26s3LuE5XnuOEW1NHI3VDPKZIq-juv6Uqz-NSgfdVAGPrwbKLUmRchEhjsg_xZaTz7_sv1ngSeir0kXyhNKgj1ZM-93Onb9vKmTSa6Pm4oQ5LW0jZDs3aH5Q4miW-tZuc1gEvI5FJC5BRVJAzAt0lR_G9rkjy7w/s577/Table2022Mar25.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="577" data-original-width="546" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVGwtZFdA3kAF471zleoBMjymK2Iy26s3LuE5XnuOEW1NHI3VDPKZIq-juv6Uqz-NSgfdVAGPrwbKLUmRchEhjsg_xZaTz7_sv1ngSeir0kXyhNKgj1ZM-93Onb9vKmTSa6Pm4oQ5LW0jZDs3aH5Q4miW-tZuc1gEvI5FJC5BRVJAzAt0lR_G9rkjy7w/w379-h400/Table2022Mar25.png" width="379" /></a></div><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><i></i><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>NEXT WEEK</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><b></b><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">A new month and quarter, so the main event is NFP on Friday. Give the Ukrainian stalemate, this event may have more significance than last month. Fed Williams speaks this week, and traders will be alert to rate hike clues before earnings takes over next week. Germany and the Eurozone report inflation this week, both estimating a small increase. We also have US GDP (equal to inflation so zero real growth), and also UK GDP (well below inflation).</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><b></b><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><b></b><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><b><i></i></b><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i>Monday March 28</i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>11:00 BoE Governor Bailey speech</b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">23:30 Japan Jobs/UnEmp</p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i>Tuesday March 29</i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">00:30 Aus Retail Sales</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">13:00 Fed Williams speech</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">13:00 Housing/Home Price Indices</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">23:50 Japan Retail Sales</p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i>Wednesday March 30</i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">08:10 BoE Broadbent speech</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">09:00 Eurozone Business Climate/Consumer Confidence</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>12:00 Germany CPI (e5.4% p5.5%)</b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>12:15 US ADP (e400k p475k)</b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">12:30 US PCE QoQ</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>12:30 US Q4 GDP (YoY e7.1% p7.0%)</b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">23:50 Japan Ind Production</p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i>Thursday March 31</i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">00:30 Aus Building Permits</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>01:00 China PMIs (Mfr e49.8 p50.2)</b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>06:00 UK Q4 GDP (QoQ e1.0% p1.0%)</b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>06:00 Germany Retail Sales (e2.4% p10.3%)</b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">07:55 Germany Unemployment</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">08:00 OPEC Meeting</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">09:00 Eurozone Unemployment</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">12:30 US PCE MoM & YoY</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">12:30 US Jobless Claims</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">12:30 US Personal Income/Spending</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">12:30 Canada GDP</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">13:00 Fed Williams speech</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">13:45 Chicago PMI</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">21:30 Aus AiG Mfg Index</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">23:50 Japan Tankan Mfr Indices</p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i>Friday April 1</i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">01:45 China Caixin Mfr PMI</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">07:55 Germany Markit Mfr PMI</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">08:30 UK Markit Mfr PMI</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>09:00 Eurozone CPI (Core 2.8% p2.7%)</b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>12:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e450k p678k)</b></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">13:30 Canada Markit Mfr PMI</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">13:45 US Markit Mfr PMI</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>14:00 US ISM PMI (e58.5 p58.6)</b></p>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-42130518278663790532022-03-20T11:10:00.004+00:002022-03-20T11:13:19.389+00:00Week to Mar 18th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>First rate hike since 2019, but priced in. Markets rally, JPY 6-year low.</i></b></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURCAD</span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><b><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAXpIeyb1EihUMQJL8swhPB9_JqWj9dLRgWkBNmV5yNlOls0Mx8p5sC0xsSV2Mj37EDey07n6Nhjkxlcu84q3n7MHVLfw8yoRGRDjainS0ED8Zz54pc5EGWaJJ_muUjUjxceRsKgNcLuqICjSU7TqjivcApFw6D2kaVR-KMCf8iQQX2ZdbT9X-JRJ1WQ/s1594/Markets2022Mar18.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1594" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAXpIeyb1EihUMQJL8swhPB9_JqWj9dLRgWkBNmV5yNlOls0Mx8p5sC0xsSV2Mj37EDey07n6Nhjkxlcu84q3n7MHVLfw8yoRGRDjainS0ED8Zz54pc5EGWaJJ_muUjUjxceRsKgNcLuqICjSU7TqjivcApFw6D2kaVR-KMCf8iQQX2ZdbT9X-JRJ1WQ/w400-h297/Markets2022Mar18.png" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b><br /><br />In the best week for over a year, markets recovered, as the Ukraine situation didn't get any worse. The rally was halted by the widely predicted 0.25% rate hike on Wednesday, but didn't really fade, despite an dotplot suggest 11 hikes by the end of 2023. Chinese stocks had a V-shaped week, falling on COVID fears then rising on pro-business government announcements. EEM ETFs followed. The BoE raised rates as expected, but with one dissenting MPC member, and the 'rumor' rally stalled. In general though, all currencies beat the inside week dollar, except JPY, which made new six year highs. Yields hit their highest level since May 2019 on the rate hike. Gold and Oil continued to slide from their recent peaks.<br /><br /><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was oversold NDX, up 8.41%. The top forex mover was AUDJPY UP 3.34%. Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied. Tech outperformed with NFLX and FB making up for last weeks underperformance.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's GBPJPY short position lost 2.69%, which means I am ahead 5.56% this year, with 6/10 (60%) wins. This week I am buying EURCAD, as Eurozone recovers and oil falls<br /><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW37Jg6kl5kBKTon8SyFPMCXXyHdFt24TnN8R-AnjBWfcATMrNmPW0-HLU2KA0z2r13Pf1QXD2EIBuONLcKoF59sPzaRAPOdeUP2vcvLmR2TCcLfop2cckMspt9idyQ4Uapwof2_iCQE9g_KArr_weBIN6tgaoQIZPWICAESgRtLLwmyrFBrJKGwUaxg/s1046/Table2020Mar18.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1046" data-original-width="990" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW37Jg6kl5kBKTon8SyFPMCXXyHdFt24TnN8R-AnjBWfcATMrNmPW0-HLU2KA0z2r13Pf1QXD2EIBuONLcKoF59sPzaRAPOdeUP2vcvLmR2TCcLfop2cckMspt9idyQ4Uapwof2_iCQE9g_KArr_weBIN6tgaoQIZPWICAESgRtLLwmyrFBrJKGwUaxg/w379-h400/Table2020Mar18.png" width="379" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /></div></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i><br /><b>NEXT WEEK</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b>There is little US news next week, the biggest prints are PMIs (still all expanding). UK inflation is expected to edge up to 6%. It is the two year anniversary of COVID bottom on Wed, and we are a similar situation. Once again, the markets are probably going to be dominated by Ukraine, and perhaps China.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><br /><b><i>Monday March 21</i></b><br /><b>01:15 PBoC Rate Decision/Statement (e3.7% hold)</b><br />07:00 Germany PPI<br />12:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Tuesday March 22</i></b><br /><b>01:00 RBA Governor Lowe speech</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Wednesday March 23</i></b><br /><b>07:00 UK CPI (e6.0% p5.5%)</b><br />12:30 UK Budget Report (time approx.)<br />14:00 US New Home Sales<br />15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence<br />22:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank PMIs<br /><b>23:50 BoJ MPC Minutes</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Thursday March 24</i></b><br /><b>08:30 Germany Markit PMIs (Mfr e58.5 p58.4)</b><br />09:00 Eurozone Economic Bulletin<br /><b>09:00 Eurozone Markit PMIs (Comp e55.7 p55.5)</b><br /><b>09:30 UK Markit PMIs (Svcs e60.7 p60.5)</b><br /><b>12:30 US Durable Goods (e-0.6% p1.6%)</b><br />12:30 US Jobless Claims<br />13:45 US Markit PMIs<br />23:30 Tokyo CPI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Friday March 25</i></b><br />07:00 UK Retail Sales<br />09:00 Germany IFO Sentiment<br />14:00 Michigan CSI<br />14:00 US Pending Home Sales<br />16:45 BoC Gravelle speech</span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-33069505866160723382022-03-12T12:33:00.005+00:002022-03-12T12:33:50.894+00:00Week to Mar 11th<p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Gold and Oil hit and retreat from highs</span></b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL GBPJPY</span></b></div><p></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgCjFYTqfGuGdxto5G71yC3DSCbvP5jsmpQpMIzhOFhA6h9wALBw5RG9O5nmX4VIjn0wWcWdMqBQoI_P3ZXqbmUPp4nhjBKOBRLXWpoaFIZwP4Kd2mBzm2y8RuxUFxAvpNIh-dfUR_lVM1BWLaMv84lgYWz6X8mkGxCFtvXmDjcX27CIGVfWYT_2obkJg=s1594" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1594" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgCjFYTqfGuGdxto5G71yC3DSCbvP5jsmpQpMIzhOFhA6h9wALBw5RG9O5nmX4VIjn0wWcWdMqBQoI_P3ZXqbmUPp4nhjBKOBRLXWpoaFIZwP4Kd2mBzm2y8RuxUFxAvpNIh-dfUR_lVM1BWLaMv84lgYWz6X8mkGxCFtvXmDjcX27CIGVfWYT_2obkJg=w400-h297" width="400" /></a></span></b></div><b><span style="font-family: arial;">LAST WEEK<br /><br /></span></b><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The war in Ukraine continues with no clear progress by either side, and this is keeping markets depressed, but hugely volatile. US markets fell but held the Feb 24th invasion low, however European markets, which dipped below last week recovered, with a particularly strong showing from oversold DAX. The main news item, US CPI, was in line with estimates, and had little effect on markets.</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The dollar (DXY) hit a new two-year high, and all currencies were down. EUR rose into the ECB meeting, and then fell away despite a relatively hawkish stance from President Lagarde, paving the way for rate hikes. GBP was sharply down, making a 16-month low. Notably, and unusually JPY fell sharply all week, unlike its fellow safe haven Gold, which shot up to $2,070, within a whisker of its all-time high, before falling back sharply. Similarly, Oil spiked up to highs not seen since 2008, before pulling back sharply. 10-year yields followed the dollar and reversed last week's drop.</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><i></i></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was oversold DAX, up 4.07%. The top forex mover was USDJPY down 2.18%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were flat again. Tech underperformed generally as the rate hike looms. We are seeing notable divergence by the weaker FANGs NFLX and FB.</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's EURNZD long position made 0.66%, which means I am ahead 8.25% this year, with 6/9 (66.7%) wins. This week I am expecting the BoE will not raise rates and selling GBPJPY.</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><i><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></i></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><i></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjKtnokmJTBpV4G6s-FpF7hQrWLHnlntLYQ2loFNJWTBG1i_DxNG9Kx5xU6T2ucP9Fn3M3ey5SDF3Jo3YkZo4nEix5Dq1NO7-iAByA_WwlPQg2010Iekh9t4bpfKbzoHFi9ezTMXhVLmYqX3Oma1zMh4ZN_9FGRKIviSH6syFkHm93b6JEcT0xwav3o9A=s522" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="522" data-original-width="492" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjKtnokmJTBpV4G6s-FpF7hQrWLHnlntLYQ2loFNJWTBG1i_DxNG9Kx5xU6T2ucP9Fn3M3ey5SDF3Jo3YkZo4nEix5Dq1NO7-iAByA_WwlPQg2010Iekh9t4bpfKbzoHFi9ezTMXhVLmYqX3Oma1zMh4ZN_9FGRKIviSH6syFkHm93b6JEcT0xwav3o9A=w378-h400" width="378" /></a></i></div><i><br /></i><p></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</span></i></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">NEXT WEEK</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Although Ukraine is still dominating the headlines, all eyes will be on the Fed on Wednesday for their anticipated first rate hike (25bp to 0.50%) since 2019. This is 97% likely (and priced in) according to the CME Fedwatch tool. Also notable is the BoE decision. They raised rates by 25bp last month, so a further hike is less likely. The US, China and Canada all report Retail Sales, expected to be sluggish. And finally, next week is the two week period we get every March where the US enters DST two weeks before Europe, meaning US markets open and close an hour earlier for Europeans.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i></i></b><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Monday March 14</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">02:00 China FDI (time approx.)</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Tuesday March 15</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">00:30 Aus House Price Index</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">00:30 RBA MPC Minutes</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">02:00 China Retail Sales (e2.8% p1.7%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">07:00 UK AHE/UnEmp (UnEmp e4.0% p4.1%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">10:00 Eurozone Ind Production</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">10:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US PPI</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">23:50 Japan Import/Exports/TB</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Wednesday March 16</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">04:30 Japan Industrial Production</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">10:30 Germany 10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM e0.6% p3.8%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 Canada BoC CPI (Core e4.8% p4.3%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">18:00 Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e0.5% p0.25%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">18:30 FOMC Press Conference</span></b></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Thursday March 17</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">00:30 Aus Jobs/UnEmp (UnEMp e4.1% p4.2%)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">10:00 Eurozone CPI</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:00 BoE Rate Decision/Statement (e0.5% hold)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Building Permits/Housing Starts</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 US Jobless Claims</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 Philly Fed Mfr Survey</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">23:30 Japan National CPI</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Friday March 18</span></i></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">03:00 BoJ Rate Decision/Statement (0.1% hold)</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">06:00 BoJ Press Conference</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">10:00 Eurozone Labor Cost</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 Canada Retail Sales (e-2.1% p-1.8%)</span></b></p>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-5009080586784004722022-03-05T13:14:00.001+00:002022-03-05T13:14:12.515+00:00Week to Mar 4th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><b>Ukraine war causes DAX and EUR collapse. Oil at record highs.</b></i></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURNZD</span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><b><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhWR0TKckGtoyYearTIqF2uURkdYis9LEGgNR-SDuyiZm1W8q6vv6HViM8a8bOmNbytaqAZ4gte3uaBz5GYgVseIBpFdHgEeGUyGAmNDS8UbZPaD77NTSzZQ-PfM1dsuAUh3syGl4MTblYsMxe2jU7bcwQtX2fzo1eaOPVzpsTWAlcAu9GKoGd3uzFIVg=s1594" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1594" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhWR0TKckGtoyYearTIqF2uURkdYis9LEGgNR-SDuyiZm1W8q6vv6HViM8a8bOmNbytaqAZ4gte3uaBz5GYgVseIBpFdHgEeGUyGAmNDS8UbZPaD77NTSzZQ-PfM1dsuAUh3syGl4MTblYsMxe2jU7bcwQtX2fzo1eaOPVzpsTWAlcAu9GKoGd3uzFIVg=w400-h297" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b></div></b><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div>Whereas US markets only slipped slightly in an inside week, mostly on the Ukraine nuclear power plant attack, DAX had its worst week since the pandemic crash in Mar 2020, and FTSE fared little better, with its Russian components falling more than its oil components rose. Markets more or less ignored the otherwise important NFP beat, which gives the Fed little room to delay their tightening.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Oil hit 116.52, its highest price ever except for the summer of 2008, and easily its highest price ever expressed in GBP or EUR. The Brent/WTI spread varied by 10c in the week, the widest since the negative WTI crisis during COVID. 10-year yields dropped sharply, back to October 2021 levels, and EUR had its worst week since the start of the COVID crisis, propelling DXY up to levels not seen since 2020. Notably Asian currencies were not affected, JPY retraced last weeks' gains in an inside week, and AUD and NZD outperformed the dollar, the former on rate hike hints. An actual rate hike in Canada was already priced and the currency hardly moved.<br /><br /><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was Ukraine-sensitive DAX, down 10.11%. The top forex mover was EURAUD down 5.11%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were fairly flat. Some of the FANGs performed a lot worse than NDX, although in general tech underperformed.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's EURNZD short position made 4.68%, which means I am ahead 7.59% this year, with 5/8 (62.5%) wins. I will now reverse that position and buy EURNZD, as the rate hike hint may drive AUD up more.<br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjgt2dJkz5haU_OXTzb8kvuNh5Z5ZIay5bsEf_TA59AMWXU_ryyvhTQfp-GiJ3mYFCWPv-GmhYwSzf93bK90zxTyEjmjzNRQcRO_iNgk9QHLOeYk_Y4dyLb68NZiB2wfUol8mfpyo_VEz0EqgVbEXmaeO3m9vxsds56l6U0KKT0hGiMYDs1Qxef-wJ6uA=s523" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="523" data-original-width="493" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjgt2dJkz5haU_OXTzb8kvuNh5Z5ZIay5bsEf_TA59AMWXU_ryyvhTQfp-GiJ3mYFCWPv-GmhYwSzf93bK90zxTyEjmjzNRQcRO_iNgk9QHLOeYk_Y4dyLb68NZiB2wfUol8mfpyo_VEz0EqgVbEXmaeO3m9vxsds56l6U0KKT0hGiMYDs1Qxef-wJ6uA=w378-h400" width="378" /></a></div><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i><br /><b>NEXT WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Although Ukraine is likely to dominate markets, the key day for schedule news is Thursday with the ECB simultaneous with US core inflation (ie without Ukraine factor-oil) which is estimated to make a new high. We also have inflation from Germany and China, US, Canada, China trade figures and GDP from Eurozone, UK and Japan.<br /><br /><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><br /><b><i>Monday March 7</i></b><br />02:00 China Imports/Exports/TB<br />07:00 Germany Factory Orders<br /><b>09:00 Germany Retail Sales (time approx.) (e9.5% p0%)</b><br />23:50 Japan Current Account<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Tuesday March 8</i></b><br /><b>10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ e0.3% p0.3%)</b><br />13:30 US Trade Balance<br />13:30 Canada Trade Balance<br /><b>22:15 RBA Governor Lowe speech</b><br />23:30 Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence<br /><b>23:50 Japan GDP (e1.4% p1.3%)</b><br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Wednesday March 9</i></b><br />01:30 China CPI/PPI<br />08:00 RBA Debelle speech<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Thursday March 10</i></b><br />00:00 Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations<br /><b>12:45 ECB Rate Decision/Statement (e0% hold)</b><br /><b>13:30 ECB Press Conference</b><br /><b>13:30 US CPI (Core e6.4% p6.0%)</b><br />13:30 US Jobless Claims<br />19:00 US Monthly Budget Statement<br /><b>22:15 RBA Governor Lowe speech</b><br />23:30 Japan Overall Household Spending<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Friday March 11</i></b><br />07:00 UK GDP<br />07:00 UK Ind/Mfr Production<br /><b>07:00 Germany CPI (e5.5% p5.5%)</b><br /><b>13:30 Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (UE e6.2% p6.5%)</b><br /><b>15:00 Michigan CSI (e61.3 p62.8)</b></span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-42381220929903732892022-02-27T13:05:00.000+00:002022-03-05T13:09:11.436+00:00Week to Feb 25th<p style="text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Russia invades Ukraine. Markets recover in hours.</span></b></i></div><span><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL EURNZD</span></b></div></span><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhA7zQtl45NEka-5sLJQiAyRO48eksenGwUdXgdnhyRzk5-Wr6MVId6xx1jK3NdJQvHFrSeSEEnKfuvFqSQWPPc7iYgIwbNz4Q55wEVJBs1tS4QLWLSLDzcquI7pkeP5MUEAMZVa-8o2jdbXpHMbmp70LfeF4Flg3P-XIe3iHA16OWv7eAcgc4vZIL_Mg=s1594" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1594" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhA7zQtl45NEka-5sLJQiAyRO48eksenGwUdXgdnhyRzk5-Wr6MVId6xx1jK3NdJQvHFrSeSEEnKfuvFqSQWPPc7iYgIwbNz4Q55wEVJBs1tS4QLWLSLDzcquI7pkeP5MUEAMZVa-8o2jdbXpHMbmp70LfeF4Flg3P-XIe3iHA16OWv7eAcgc4vZIL_Mg=w400-h297" width="400" /></span></a></b></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>LAST WEEK</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b>As we mentioned last week, the primary driver of markets this week was the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the first war on European soil since the Kosovo in 1999. Markets fell hard on Thursday morning and gold, oil and the dollar surged in classic form. However, the moves were quickly reversed, and SPX and NDX both ended the week up, and DJIA was flat. The dollar and yields were up overall, the latter not really reacting to the Ukraine issue. The RBNZ rate hike was priced in, and had no effect on NZD. Gold and oil both tracked the dollar.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b>The biggest index mover was Ukraine-sensitive DAX, down 3.16%. The top forex mover was GBPAUD up 1.91%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were flat, as was FANG.</span><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's AUDNZD long position made 0.08%, which means I am ahead 2.91% this year, with 4/7 (57%) wins. I think EUR is going to react to Ukraine, and so sell it against NZD. I am avoiding AUD as there is a rate decision statement.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjfIrgRi_7_VmhHPYVmNJib5n08cv6_SOPCSm6S-tufBQZdVviJqkEyJhv9cjnbVSqILJrJEHsXZhsz3xsoVbIjvcoYZANo7riu3l28gsW2wAaWQxNkDIwX0P0nzy5ig-2s-1fcSBqOem0ynkhYqj-M4aF-gnzZgEc948c7aq8V7jIOdvIiJQGlhuwfpA=s523" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="523" data-original-width="491" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjfIrgRi_7_VmhHPYVmNJib5n08cv6_SOPCSm6S-tufBQZdVviJqkEyJhv9cjnbVSqILJrJEHsXZhsz3xsoVbIjvcoYZANo7riu3l28gsW2wAaWQxNkDIwX0P0nzy5ig-2s-1fcSBqOem0ynkhYqj-M4aF-gnzZgEc948c7aq8V7jIOdvIiJQGlhuwfpA=w375-h400" width="375" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: arial;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i><br style="font-family: arial;" /><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">NEXT WEEK</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">Next week sees a new month, and therefore NFP, which at 400k estimate is similar to last month's print. Ukraine is still expected to dominate the general headlines, although Australian and Canadian rate decisions and Aussie and Canadian inflation will have an effect in the forex area.</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">CALENDAR </b><span style="font-family: arial;">(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;"><i>Monday February 28</i></b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">23:50 Japan Ind Production (Sun)</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">23:50 Japan Retail Sales (Sun)</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">00:00 Aus TD Securities Inflation</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">00:30 Aus Retail Sales (p-4.4%)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">13:30 Canada Current Account</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">14:45 Chicago PMI</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">21:30 Aus AiG Mfg Index</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;"><i>Tuesday March 1</i></b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">01:00 China PMIs</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">01:45 China Caixin Mfr PMI</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">03:30 RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.1% hold)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">07:00 Germany Retail Sales (p0%)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">08:55 Germany Markit Mfr PMI</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">09:30 UK Markit Mfr PMI</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">13:00 Germany CPI (e5.3% p5.1%)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">13:30 Canada Q4 GDP (p5.4%)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">14:30 Canada Markit Mfr PMI</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">14:45 US Markit Mfr PMI</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">15:00 ISM Mfr PMI (e58.0 p57.6)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">18:30 BoE Saunders speech</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;"><i>Wednesday March 2</i></b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">00:30 Australia Q4 GDP (e0.5% p-1.9%)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">08:55 Germany UnEmp Change/Rate</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">10:00 Eurozone HICP (CPI) (Core p2.3%)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">10:30 DE10Y Bond Auction</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">13:15 US ADP (e328k p-301k)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">15:00 BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">19:00 Fed Beige Book</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">20:00 BoE Cunliffe speech</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">21:30 Aus AiG Construction Index</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">22:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank Services PMI</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;"><i>Thursday March 3</i></b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">00:30 Aus Imports/Exports/TB (TB p8.36B)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">01:45 China Caixin Services PMI</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">08:55 Germany Markit Comp PMI</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">09:00 Eurozone Markit Comp PMI</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">10:00 Eurozone UnEmp Rate</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">12:30 ECB MPC Minutes</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">13:30 US Jobless Claims</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">14:45 US Markit Comp/Svcs PMIs</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">15:00 US Factory Orders</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">15:00 ISM Svcs PMI (e 61 p59.9)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">23:30 Japan Jobs/UnEmp</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;"><i>Friday March 4</i></b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">07:00 Germany Trade Balance</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (p2%)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><b style="font-family: arial;">13:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e400k p467k)</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">15:00 Canada Ivey PMI</span></div></div><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><b></b></p>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-51306594425882550662022-02-20T18:56:00.002+00:002022-03-05T12:20:44.991+00:00Week to Feb 18th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><i>Ukraine uncertainty abounds. Gold makes 9-month high</i></b></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY AUDNZD</span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiPPA4050Y1TBaEWdUneOCJLE11c3g_BXVjjxTQQyd9uqyZcqq3pWs3LEVzGHofgFBWVEgfAmreusuKqn-71GnbaG5ypZ2BywkT5MlYSvBxTfTHiM1QiUIWlhIPR8-1U5cIVIPop8dbEQ0UNJBKc_deTsIaNmkR6N94j0GKvNTsg0E69UMn9d-M2j3wnQ=s1594" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1594" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiPPA4050Y1TBaEWdUneOCJLE11c3g_BXVjjxTQQyd9uqyZcqq3pWs3LEVzGHofgFBWVEgfAmreusuKqn-71GnbaG5ypZ2BywkT5MlYSvBxTfTHiM1QiUIWlhIPR8-1U5cIVIPop8dbEQ0UNJBKc_deTsIaNmkR6N94j0GKvNTsg0E69UMn9d-M2j3wnQ=w400-h297" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Markets wobbled this week on Ukraine fears and but only ended up slightly down in inverted V-shaped pattern. USD made a V-shape but ultimately consolidated. The dollar consolidated and ended the week flat. After weeks of rising, 10-year yields pulled back in an inside week. Oil, affected by Ukraine tensions, was slightly more volatile and made a brief new high a few cents shy of $94 before pulling back. The only notable risk-off move was Gold which broke $1,900 for the first time since May 2021. The FOMC minutes did not reveal anything new, and there was no reaction from traders.<br /><br /><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was Ukraine-sensitive DAX, down 2.48%. The top forex mover was EURNZD down 1.07%. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell moderately, and FANG was fairly flat, except for beleaguer FB, down 6.1% and now at May 2020 lows, 46% off its September 2021 high.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's EURGBP long position lost 0.48%, which means I am ahead 2.83% this year, with 3/6 (50%) wins. The trend is difficult to read this week, so I will fall back on my reserve AUDNZD, as a buy. It's won't make much, but it's safe.<br /><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhsg9HeKSse4Wo27ltUU4B_Tw610kEBamuMXxIBe2YLpaSQKbe9hsLXM3VXMbX7lQKdvPlkRlOA5dOKp79X_iSLeONG-eTpRwT3lGtir0t-on4JaqWG5HSISMNHw3N4VQb27Z_1JQWMh3xb6me14dinez9Zo77mpacSjbQ3S1B9uHJU32GmyFeK-Ksp5w=s576" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="547" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhsg9HeKSse4Wo27ltUU4B_Tw610kEBamuMXxIBe2YLpaSQKbe9hsLXM3VXMbX7lQKdvPlkRlOA5dOKp79X_iSLeONG-eTpRwT3lGtir0t-on4JaqWG5HSISMNHw3N4VQb27Z_1JQWMh3xb6me14dinez9Zo77mpacSjbQ3S1B9uHJU32GmyFeK-Ksp5w=w380-h400" width="380" /></a></div><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i> </i><br /><i>Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i><br /><b>NEXT WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Next week is a foreshortened four day week after Presidents Day on Monday when the markets are closed. There is little significant scheduled news, most important print is US GDP on Thu estimated at 7%, equal to the inflation figure which indicates no growth. With that, the primary focus will be on the tensions in Ukraine.<br /><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><br /><b><i>Monday February 21</i></b><br />22:00 Commonwealth Bank PMIs (Sun)<br /><b>01:15 PBoC Rate Decision/Statement (e3.7% hold)</b><br />07:00 Germany PPI<br /><b>08:30 Germany Markit PMIs (Mfr e59.4 p59.8)</b><br /><b>09:00 Eurozone Markit PMIs (Comp e52.7 p53.8)</b><br /><b>09:30 UK Markit Svcs PMI (e55.2 p54.1)</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Tuesday February 22</i></b><br />09:00 Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators<br />10:45 BoE Ramsden speech<br />14:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices<br />14:45 US Markit PMIs<br />15:00 US Consumer Confidence</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Wednesday February 23</i></b><br />07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence<br />10:00 Eurozone HICP (CPI)</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Thursday February 24</i></b><br />13:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index<br />13:30 US PCE (QoQ)<br /><b>13:30 US Q4 GDP (e7.0% p6.9%)</b><br />13:30 US Jobless Claims<br />15:00 US New Home Sales<br />23:30 Tokyo CPI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Friday February 25</i></b><br />07:00 Germany Q4 GDP<br />10:00 Eurozone Business Climate<br />10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence<br />13:30 US PCE (MoM & YoY)<br /><b>13:30 US Durable/ND Capital Goods (DG e0.6% p-0.7%)</b><br />15:00 US Pending Home Sales<br />15:00 Michigan CSI</span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-55440295752109729252022-02-12T14:02:00.001+00:002022-02-12T14:02:11.026+00:00Week to Feb 11th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b style="font-family: arial;">Highest </b><span class="s1" style="font-family: arial;"><b>#CPI</b></span><b style="font-family: arial;"> for 40 years. Yields and Oil at multi-year highs</b></i></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURGBP</span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><b><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjYxtjfWV42mUJn9cCfl3UJ90GU0bAL2mew_EM9IYGza7OXdZn7na2luKhS4mTs7f4EBKzEMyTI52cMsFHtxCJQiaxWcQ1qLIziPV5K6XuqlDha-yO4iXQJ50SGeP7YvIE0TUDazFCybMQ93VLlXwcVkmq28mAVIz7o458iRIaatUWO5TCDLWIGoSKzQQ=s1594" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1594" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjYxtjfWV42mUJn9cCfl3UJ90GU0bAL2mew_EM9IYGza7OXdZn7na2luKhS4mTs7f4EBKzEMyTI52cMsFHtxCJQiaxWcQ1qLIziPV5K6XuqlDha-yO4iXQJ50SGeP7YvIE0TUDazFCybMQ93VLlXwcVkmq28mAVIz7o458iRIaatUWO5TCDLWIGoSKzQQ=w400-h297" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As is often the case, markets were progressing gently only to be hit by the worse than expected CPI print on Thursday, which at 7.5% was the highest for 40 years. Higher inflation implies earlier rate hikes, and Fed hawk Bullard said “<i>I'd like to see 100 basis points in the bag by July 1."</i> Indices pulled back with SPX closing an inside week, and rate-sensitive NDX down 3%. The effect was largely confined to the US, and DAX and FTSE were up on the week. Although the dollar briefly spiked on the CPI release, it quickly retraced and also had an inside week, although Gold was well up, making a 12-week and 2022 high. Oil reached $94, a six-year high, and yields crossed 2% for the first time since July 2019.<br /><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was again NDX, down 3.0%. The top forex mover was EURAUD down 1.79%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were flat, and FANG suffered again, falling more than NDX in aggregate.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's AUDNZD long position made 0.84%, which means I am ahead 3.31% this year, with 3/5 (60%) wins. This week I am buying EURGBP as I think it has bounced off the 0.83 bottom, but pulled back last week, making a good entry.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjcZahMnpKOLnlE7IFLZ3tKuDhaA7uzV0WAdhzegd6bjOJ3xj2mY5x35uVVzWelcP38vVy8Fp8o1LAlTBWBeipJNOwFQmR_2SJMbroqpK-Orbh7tEPX2NHksQ74lnVnd7yzScfy3thuX-BWFJCnqTwk54--S97VDXtb6VkE6tXQ_mX0XjeWDC6G29aQnw=s578" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="578" data-original-width="547" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjcZahMnpKOLnlE7IFLZ3tKuDhaA7uzV0WAdhzegd6bjOJ3xj2mY5x35uVVzWelcP38vVy8Fp8o1LAlTBWBeipJNOwFQmR_2SJMbroqpK-Orbh7tEPX2NHksQ74lnVnd7yzScfy3thuX-BWFJCnqTwk54--S97VDXtb6VkE6tXQ_mX0XjeWDC6G29aQnw=w379-h400" width="379" /></a></div></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i> </i><br /><i>Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i><br /><b>NEXT WEEK</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b>Next week’s US data is light, only Retail Sales (which is not rising with inflation). The all-important inflation releases come from China (low), the UK and Canada (high but not as high as US). FOMC minutes probably the main US takeaway. Everything is about inflation. Earnings season enters the ‘retail’ phase when WMT report on Thursday.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Monday February 14</i></b><br /><b>23:50 Japan Q4 Prelim GDP (QoQ e1.4% p-0.9%)</b><br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Tuesday February 15</i></b><br /><b>00:30 RBA MPC Minutes</b><br />04:30 Japan Ind Production<br /><b>07:00 UK Claimant Count/AHE/UnEmp (UnEmp e4.1% p4.1%)</b><br /><b>10:00 Eurozone Q4 Prelim GDP (YoY e4.6% p4.6%)</b><br />10:00 Germany ZEW Sentiment Surveys<br />13:30 US PPI<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Wednesday February 16</i></b><br /><b>01:30 China CPI (e1.0% p1.5%)</b><br /><b>07:00 UK CPI (e5.4% p5.4%)</b><br />10:00 Eurozone Ind Production<br />10:30 DE10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)<br /><b>13:30 US Retail Sales (Control e0.1% p-3.1%)</b><br /><b>13:30 Canada BoC CPI (e4.6% p4.0%)</b><br />18:30 BoC Lane speech<br /><b>19:00 FOMC Minutes</b><br />23:50 Japan Imports/Exports/TB<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Thursday February 17</i></b><br /><b>00:30 Aus NFP/UnEmp (NFP e-15k p64.8k)</b><br />09:00 Eurozone Economic Bulletin<br />13:30 US Building Permits/Housing Starts<br />13:30 US Jobless Claims<br />13:30 Philly Fed Mfr Survey<br />23:30 Japan National CPI<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Friday February 18</i></b><br />07:00 UK Retail Sales<br /><b>13:30 Canada Retail Sales (e1.2% p0.7%)</b><br />15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence</span></div>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-35027172761953431072022-02-06T20:21:00.009+00:002022-02-06T20:21:57.630+00:00Week to Feb 4th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><i>Currencies and FANG earnings dominate</i></b></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY AUDNZD</span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><b><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhFOIEIlctsVDfHacuhj_ru8GZrzPB7WsRl2GV2MZwYDwX6qAZ_pH1t_oWOiU9usAsiauTofjKHzovS3RRtUtSJS71_ZyKVWdkEPMsuXy9BoaX1bIIzNwuddjMD-wF5N0dIzdKX4jWPKH3XKp8UG5lfyfRJ-hHI2r-rgS21kTo3G30CraK83_tELgLQxQ=s1594" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1594" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhFOIEIlctsVDfHacuhj_ru8GZrzPB7WsRl2GV2MZwYDwX6qAZ_pH1t_oWOiU9usAsiauTofjKHzovS3RRtUtSJS71_ZyKVWdkEPMsuXy9BoaX1bIIzNwuddjMD-wF5N0dIzdKX4jWPKH3XKp8UG5lfyfRJ-hHI2r-rgS21kTo3G30CraK83_tELgLQxQ=w400-h297" width="400" /></a></div>LAST WEEK</b><br /><br />A mixed week, over bullish saw SPX reversing a little of last week’s drop, although the sharp rise in EUR pushed DAX down towards January lows. There were strong FANG moves with GOOGL and AMZN sharply up, but FB over 20% down, all on earnings results.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Currencies and gold were the mirror image of last week as the dollar gave up its FOMC gains. The hawkish ECB triggered a strong rally, taking EURUSD back to the January highs and breaking the January highs on EURGBP after testing the 2020 low on Thursday. Oil made new 2022 highs again, although Gold, up with the falling dollar, only managed an inside week. AUD was particularly strong as the RBA abolished QE. Sterling only rallied a little, the BoE hike having been priced in for weeks. US yields made a new 2-year high, and German Bunds shot through the 0% point, touching 0.232%, a 3-year high.<br /><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was again NKY, but this time up 2.70%. The top forex mover was EURJPY also up 2.70%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were sharply up again, and FANG was very volatile, ranging from AMZN up nearly 10%, to FB falling by double that.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Last week's GBPAUD short position lost 0.16%, the only currency other than EUR to beat GBP. which means I am ahead 2.47% this year, with 2/4 (50%) wins. This week I will buy AUDNZD expecting follow through on the AUD QE ending.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgadIzVajpvXXAbxMj3X5gkbykXMlr8ncFAcSGfW9V9J4zJ-kCqKr6ZNfcauWU9c-0zJaDBDUfDu-8X8ZhfN-I3uCmH0f_zxjrP6jF5M-TQxpXJPEoS52BMtxcS5kY536FowMnYxKh5gCghDlEm8GWRWuqSq6SXXi-0vvyLaer5RKNmxz5emT2ZRv_Lyw=s577" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="577" data-original-width="547" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgadIzVajpvXXAbxMj3X5gkbykXMlr8ncFAcSGfW9V9J4zJ-kCqKr6ZNfcauWU9c-0zJaDBDUfDu-8X8ZhfN-I3uCmH0f_zxjrP6jF5M-TQxpXJPEoS52BMtxcS5kY536FowMnYxKh5gCghDlEm8GWRWuqSq6SXXi-0vvyLaer5RKNmxz5emT2ZRv_Lyw=w379-h400" width="379" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i> </i><br /><i>Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i><br /><br /><b>NEXT WEEK</b></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Although earning season continues, all the major companies results are in, and the only companies of note reporting are DIS and KO. The US CPI on Thursday stands alone as the primary release of the week, as it did in January. We also have German inflation.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT)</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Monday February 7</i></b><br />00:00 Aus TD Securities Inflation<br />01:45 China Caixin Services PMI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Tuesday February 8</i></b><br />13:30 US Trade Balance<br />13:30 Canada Trade Balance<br />23:30 Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Wednesday February 9</i></b><br />07:00 Germany Trade Balance</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>17:00 BoC Governor Macklem speech</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Thursday February 10</i></b><br />00:00 Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations<br />09:00 EC Economic Growth Forecasts<br />10:30 UK NIESR GDP Estimate (time approx.)<br /><b>13:30 US CPI (Core YoY e5.9% p5.5%)</b><br />13:30 US Jobless Claims<br />19:00 US Monthly Budget Statement</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Friday February 11</i></b><br /><b>07:00 UK Q4 GDP (QoQ e1.1% p1.1%)</b><br />07:00 UK Industrial/Mfr Production<br /><b>07:00 Germany CPI (YoY e5.1% p5.1%)</b><br /><b>15:00 Michigan CSI (p67.2)</b><br />16:00 US Fed MPC Report</span></div><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><b><i></i></b></p>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-71234443927008307792022-01-29T15:56:00.007+00:002022-01-29T15:56:47.178+00:00Week to Jan 28th<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Hawkish Fed boosts USD, Equities consolidate.</b></div><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b>MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY GBPAUD</b></div></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIDA87fnLPo3Z_tTUqAVQ_LEHcoagXGxXfkWR0j4gTe0rr4V0sz00yWHmV_Ldchk6H1pJ_5lBYp5-WVcJGarlUhbH75NCxHL5LvRhDrXyr9cA-Rl0iOQwhwHMhnFClKGZXGiIrTgJW_yJ5Fw5jlPURCMw8AxdLX5iJFPWjll4YTPY3P_IdrET8MY_2fg=s1594" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1594" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIDA87fnLPo3Z_tTUqAVQ_LEHcoagXGxXfkWR0j4gTe0rr4V0sz00yWHmV_Ldchk6H1pJ_5lBYp5-WVcJGarlUhbH75NCxHL5LvRhDrXyr9cA-Rl0iOQwhwHMhnFClKGZXGiIrTgJW_yJ5Fw5jlPURCMw8AxdLX5iJFPWjll4YTPY3P_IdrET8MY_2fg=w400-h297" width="400" /></a></div>THIS WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The strong volatility continued this week, but ultimately as consolidation as SPX and NDX touched 7-month lows, but ultimately closed the week slightly up, helped by the AAPL beat. The hawkish Fed gave a strong boost to the dollar, up 1.72% to an 18-month high, all currencies and Gold were down in line, although yields were nearly flat, some of the Fed mood being already priced in. Oil hit new seven year highs on the Russia/Ukraine tension, and NatGas was also up.<br /><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biggest index mover was NKY, down 2.92%. The top forex mover was AUDUSD down 2.64%. Bitcoin and Ethereum stabilised, and FANG was variable again, with NFLX falling further.<br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Last week's NZDUSD short position made 2.56%, which when added to last week’s 0.07%, means I am ahead 2.63%, with 2/3 (66%) wins. This week I will buy GBPAUD expecting a BoE rate hike.<br /><i> </i><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhe_O878vf_2sq_yFNIpE2WFxA7kWBLtnNelxHUIPcPdjeMvpwgnoZf3QHYo_iUi-QNzPCe4H6MGMnOcE5hyJerg3Jc0ve-18OS2hSdKAFV2LfuXi_dQ4wHmxT6MpbqMljYcSikqaTtH9pA4F5pBUc7arQ9ZRIJIxauSRXz82rGpOaBTCbYHAKPoHYHpA=s1046" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1046" data-original-width="990" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhe_O878vf_2sq_yFNIpE2WFxA7kWBLtnNelxHUIPcPdjeMvpwgnoZf3QHYo_iUi-QNzPCe4H6MGMnOcE5hyJerg3Jc0ve-18OS2hSdKAFV2LfuXi_dQ4wHmxT6MpbqMljYcSikqaTtH9pA4F5pBUc7arQ9ZRIJIxauSRXz82rGpOaBTCbYHAKPoHYHpA=w379-h400" width="379" /></a></div><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>NEXT WEEK</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b>In another packed week into the new month, for once NFP is not the primary driver, as we have earning from the rest of FANG (GOOGL, FB and AMZN). Will they buck the trend, and follow stablemate AAPL with a strong beat. Also next week are three rate decisions, the most important being the ECB. The same day sees a possible 25bp hike from the BoE.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT)</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Monday January 31</i></b><br />23:50 Japan Retail Sales/Ind Production (Sunday)<br /><b>01:00 China PMIs (Mfr e50.0 p50.3)</b><br /><b>10:00 Eurozone Q4 GDP (QoQ e0.3% p2.2%)</b><br /><b>13:00 Germany CPI (e5.7%)</b><br />14:45 Chicago PMI<br />21:30 Australia AiG Mfg Index<br />23:30 Japan Jobs/Unemployment</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Tuesday February 1</i></b><br /><b>00:30 Australia Retail Sales (MoM e3.9% p7.3%)</b><br /><b>03:30 RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.1% p0.1%)</b><br /><b>07:00 Germany Retail Sales (e-4.9% p-2.9%)</b><br />08:55 Germany Markit Mfr PMI<br />08:55 Germany UnEmp Change/Rate<br /><b>09:00 ECB Bank Lending Survey</b><br />09:30 UK Markit Mfr PMI<br />10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate(Dec)<br />13:30 Canada Q4 GDP (MoM(<br />14:30 Canada Markit Mfr PMI<br />14:45 US Markit Mfr PMI<br /><b>15:00 ISM Mfr PMI (e58.3 p58.7)</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Wednesday February 2</i></b><br /><b>01:30 RBA Governor Lowe speech</b><br />09:00 OPEC Meeting<br /><b>10:00 Eurozone CPI (YoY p5.0%)</b><br /><b>13:15 US ADP Employment Change (e250k p807k)</b><br />15:00 BoC Gravelle speech<br />21:30 AiG Construction Index<br />22:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank Svcs PMI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Thursday February 3</i></b><br /><b>00:30 Aus Imports/Exports/TB (P9.42B)</b><br />00:30 NAB Business Confidence<br />08:55 Germany Markit Comp PMI<br />09:00 Eurozone Markit Comp PMI<br /><b>12:00 BoE Rate Decision/Statement (e0.50% p0.25%)</b><br />12:30 BoE Governor Bailey speech<br /><b>12:45 ECB Rate Decision/Statement (e0% unch)</b><br />13:30 ECB Lagarde Presser<br />13:30 US Jobless Claims<br />14:45 US Markit Comp & Svcs PMI<br /><b>15:00 US ISM Services PMI (e61.8 p62.0)</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b><b><i>Friday February 4</i></b><br /><b>00:30 RBA MPC Minutes</b><br />07:00 Germany Factory Orders<br /><b>10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (p7.8%)</b><br /><b>13:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e238k p199k)</b><br />13:30 Canada NFP/UnEmp (UnEmp<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br />15:00 Canada Ivey PMI</span></div><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><b><i></i></b></p>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3601201861345423450.post-74928754677916318032022-01-23T15:44:00.011+00:002022-01-29T15:51:15.289+00:00Week to Jan 21st<div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><i>NDX collapse on rate hike fears, Oil makes 6-year high</i></b></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL NZDUSD</span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></b></div></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgX1vMOttB6fQAARnz5vtNRWHkt98Am83FrZfPBQEluR5aPv0wnsitZcFHXC45vZqp-4T1LTnDm9ASHAHHNJEL08ACmbiAQ6FxSLT1gF2_kXnfSuxMBWh5N-vn26anpZs8kqHUvQspjz-cVR13Jfjtz5PhRjIhsy3-wff7KustLRD5YT-RyWPT3n22fIQ=s1594" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1594" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgX1vMOttB6fQAARnz5vtNRWHkt98Am83FrZfPBQEluR5aPv0wnsitZcFHXC45vZqp-4T1LTnDm9ASHAHHNJEL08ACmbiAQ6FxSLT1gF2_kXnfSuxMBWh5N-vn26anpZs8kqHUvQspjz-cVR13Jfjtz5PhRjIhsy3-wff7KustLRD5YT-RyWPT3n22fIQ=w400-h297" width="400" /></a></div>THIS WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">US indices were battered this week, over continuing concerns about tightening, exacerbated by the GS miss and other lukewarm earnings into OpEx day. The NFLX miss on new subscribers gave the stock its worst week in a decade, down 25%, which in turn pushed NDX down 7.5%, its worst week since the March 20 COVID crash. Heavily weighted AMZN fell 12%, its worst week since December 2018. The decline was considerably less in Europe, with FTSE briefly touching a new 2022 high before joining the trend. The dollar had an inside week, whereas yields briefly touched a two-year high before retreating, and German yields moved above 0% for the first time since early 2019. Gold rallied to a 9-week high in line with the market mood, and Oil briefly made a new 6-year high before pulling back.<br /><br /><br /><b>WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT</b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b>The biggest index mover was NDX, down 7.51%. The top forex mover was NZDJPY down 1.81%. Bitcoin and Ethereum also fell heavily, and FANG fell even more than NDX. Red all over the place.</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Last week's NZDCAD long position lost 0.26%, which when added to last week’s 0.33%, means I am ahead 0.07%, with 1/2 (50%) wins. This week I'll try selling NZDUSD, expecting a Fed dollar boost.<br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgsOqja2PYMiKPUEPARNewR0eDOeONhIkTY6-wOayg-VWsHHOAIREpFUWpJ_02LC7lUDZhJ4UFSgvAbKjh5erR_Hvcdy_vD9DkuqWYccqlSb4TnOFzX87TsmqIV-3bsnsXHycAWJjfy45TRPke_o9yiDRzMY3bMhzKmPOYOihrNySgbYNFp2yh6MD9GfQ=s1046" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1046" data-original-width="996" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgsOqja2PYMiKPUEPARNewR0eDOeONhIkTY6-wOayg-VWsHHOAIREpFUWpJ_02LC7lUDZhJ4UFSgvAbKjh5erR_Hvcdy_vD9DkuqWYccqlSb4TnOFzX87TsmqIV-3bsnsXHycAWJjfy45TRPke_o9yiDRzMY3bMhzKmPOYOihrNySgbYNFp2yh6MD9GfQ=w381-h400" width="381" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i style="font-family: arial; text-align: left;"><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><i style="font-family: arial; text-align: left;"><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><i style="font-family: arial; text-align: left;">Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.</i></div></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><b>NEXT WEEK</b><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The final week of January sees the Fed rate decision, where the bar for hawkishness is high. It is also a key week of earnings season with nearly 30% of NDX reporting (AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, INTC) as well as DJI heavyweights IBM, JNJ and MCD. Also there is a Canadian rate decision, US final A4 GDP ad Australian inflation. A packed week for a depressed market to process.<br /><br /><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>CALENDAR </b>(all times are GMT)<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Monday January 24</i></b><br />22:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank PMIs (Sunday)<br /><b>08:30 Germany Markit PMIs (Mfr e57.0 p57.4)</b><br /><b>09:00 Eurozone Markit PMIs (Comp e52.6 p53.3)</b><br />09:30 UK Markit Mfr & Svcs PMIs<br />13:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index<br />14:45 US Markit PMIs</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Tuesday January 25</i></b><br /><b>00:30 Australia CPI (Trimmed Mean QoQ e0.7% p0.7%)</b><br />09:00 Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators<br />14:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices<br />15:00 US Consumer Confidence<br />21:00 MSFT ER</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Wednesday January 26</i></b><br />10:30 Germany 10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)<br /><b>15:00 BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)</b><br /><b>16:15 BoC Press Conference</b><br /><b>19:00 Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)</b><br /><b>19:30 FOMC Press Conference</b><br />21:00 TSLA ER</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Thursday January 27</i></b><br />07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence<br />13:30 US PCE (QoQ)<br /><b>13:30 US Durable Goods (e-0.5% p2.6%)</b><br /><b>13:30 US Q4 GDP (e5.6% p2.3%)</b><br />13:30 US Jobless Claims<br />15:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM)(Dec)<br />21:30 AAPL ER<br />23:30 Tokyo CPI</span></div><div style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b><i>Friday January 28</i></b><br /><b>09:00 Germany Q4 GDP (QoQ p1.7%)</b><br />10:00 Eurozone Business Climate/Consumer Confidence<br />13:30 US PCE (MoM and YoY)<br />15:00 Michigan CSI</span></div><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px; text-align: left;"><b><i></i></b></p>David Athertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09543006500658110675noreply@blogger.com0