Week to Jan 28th

Short squeeze war, More strong earnings, Markets drop sharply

MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY AUDNZD

In a week that saw concern about the rising number of cases and speed of vaccine rollout, and despite a dovish Fed, markets were sharply down, with Wednesday being the worst day for over three months. Markets were also spooked by a retail ‘army’ piling into institutionally shorted loss-making retailer Gamestop, short-squeezing the share up 642% from $65 as high as $420 (P/E 1,477!), with many commentators concerned that this could happen.

The safe haven dollar rose, although notably traditional havens did not move as expected. The yen fell sharply against all currency, Gold and yields were flat on a V-shaped week, as was Oil which had a very narrow range. The Fed were as dovish as could be expected, but for the first time in weeks, we saw FFR Futures rise, as reflected by a 4.1% rate hike being priced into the next Fed meeting in March, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.

Next week sees more of the same, and important earnings from AMZN and GOOGL, and of course Non-Farm Payrolls, all of which are potential points to either arrest or accelerate the current turn in sentiment.

Monday Jan 25

After an opening dip, SPX closed up 0.4% and NDX outperformed. The general increase was put down to stimulus hopes, whereas tech outperformance was put down to worries about vaccine distribution. The safe haven dollar was up very slightly, although all this movement was against EUR. Other currencies and Gold were flat. Yields followed the opening dip down. Oil was up in line with equities.

Tuesday Jan 26

JNJ, MMM and AXP all beat on earnings and revenue to give a good start to the day, and unlike yesterday, Europe closed up. However, markets then faded again as markets were concerned about the Fed the next following day. The recovery in stocks meant the dollar turned down again, as did Gold (following stocks for once, not the dollar). Bonds moved down in line, but Oil also fell, in a narrow whipsaw pattern which lasted all week.

Wednesday January 27

Great MSFT (up 6% AH Tue) earnings gave the day a good start, but a massive miss from BA (down 4%). Added to concerns about COVID variants, and the slow progress of stimulus, markets finally gave way and plummeted posting the worst day since October. The drop was broad with both SPX and NDX falling 2.6%. Markets were also spooked by a Robinhood retail ‘army’ going into battle with institutional shorts on obscure stock GME, (up 140%) and AMC (up 300%) and stayed there. VIX hit 40 for the first time since November with the first VIX marubozu candle (no tails) for nearly a year.

The sharp equity collapse led to a strong surge in the safe haven dollar. The Fed was dovish with open-ended commitment, but crucially nothing new. This cause a spike up in USD and a spike down in Gold which finished down. Once again inter market relationships failed, bonds were up and Oil was down, albeit both marginally.

Thursday January 28

Today was a bounce back day following the large drop. VIX gapped down, down 19% despite only a 1% move up in SPX and DJI, with NDX underperforming, an indication of weakness, after the GDP miss. The battle stocks GME and AMC were down 44% and 57% respectively on profit-taking. The dollar and bonds were down in line, although surprisingly Oil was also down. Gold was flat on the day.

Friday January 29

The volatility continued today, with another leg down on major indices. SPX was down 1.9% and NDX lost 2%. Short squeezed stocks GME and AMC were 67% and 54% up. The dollar was down again in line as was Oil, however bonds were also down. Gold was flat on the day.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

All indices pulled back this week with FTSE faring the worst. The largest forex move, very unusually, was AUDNZD, down 1.42%. AUD is very closely correlated with SPX, NZD is not. Crypto was back up, maintaining its recent volatility, and FANGS generally fared worst than NDX, in other words more volatile.

Unfortunately my EUZNZD long was down 0.32% last week (I should have bought EURAUD), so my 2021 position is now +0.91% with 3/4 wins. My view is that move in AUDNZD must revert to mean, so I am buying AUDNZD this week.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• New Month
• AMZN and GOOGL earnings
• UK and Aus Rate Decisions
• Non-Farm Payrolls

Monday February 1

A new month may see some repositioning, maybe restoring some of the end of month activity on Friday. Also, it’s manufacturing PMI Monday.

00:00 Aus TD Securities Inflation

01:45 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI(Jan)

07:00 Germany Retail Sales (p5.6%)

08:55 Germany Markit Mfr PMI

09:30 UK Markit Mfr PMI

10:00 Eurozone UnEmp

14:30 Canada Markit Mfr PMI

14:45 US Markit Mfr PMI

15:00 US ISM Mfr PMI e59.5 p60.7

19:10 Fed Rosengren speech

Tuesday February 2

Today’s earnings before the bell are vaccine producer PFE, and once-giant XOM, but much more important are the last two FANGs AMZN and GOOGL reporting after the close.

03:30 RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.1% hold)

10:00 Eurozone Q4 Prelim GDP (QoQ e-1.8% p12.5%)

18:00 Fed Williams speech

22:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank Svcs PMI

Wednesday February 3

No significant earnings today, so attention will turn to the ADP and ISM figures, both important economic indicators.

01:30 RBA Governor Lowe speech

01:45 China Caixin Services PMI

08:55 Germany Markit Comp PMI

09:00 Eurozone Markit Comp PMI

10:00 Eurozone CPI (YoY e0.4% p-0.3%)

13:15 US ADP Employment Change (e40k p-123k)

14:45 US Markit Svcs/Comp PMI

15:00 US ISM Services PMI (e56.5 p57.7)

Thursday February 4
Dow Pharma (but not vaccine) player MRK reports before the bell. However, the main news of the day is the BoE Rate Decision, or more particularly the report and speech.

00:30 Aus Imports/Exports/TB (TB p+5.02B)

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY e0.4% p-2.9%)

12:00 BoE Rate Decision/Statement (e0.1% hold)

12:30 BoE Governor Bailey speech

13:30 US Jobless Claims

15:00 US Factory Orders (MoM)(Dec)

22:30 RBA Governor Lowe speech

23:30 Japan Overall Household Spending

Friday February 5

First Friday and so it’s NFP, the first in the Biden era, with a very modest positive estimate. The pace of re-employment has slowed considerably, and it is important to still be going in a positive direction. Canada’s report is simultaneous offering volatility possibilities in USDCAD.

00:30 RBA MPC Minutes

00:30 Aus Retail Sales (p-4.2%)

07:00 Germany Factory Orders

13:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e85k p-140k)

13:30 BoE Governor Bailey speech

13:30 Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP p-62.6k)

15:00 Canada Ivey PMI

Week to Jan 21st

Biden inauguration, Generally strong earnings, Yellen supports stimulus

MY CALL FOR THIS WEEK : BUY EURNZD

Good data out China gave the MLK holiday futures and non-US markets a kick-start. Then, the four-day trading week saw Joe Biden inaugurated as the 46th President of the USA and immediately rejoin WHO and the Paris Accord. John Roe of L&G said “The concept of a United States that isolates itself … is being reversed very rapidly and that is good for international co-operation, international law and international trade.”. Also TreasSec nominee Janet Yellen support the call for Biden’s $1.9Tr stimulus package. All this, plus strong earnings, resulted in a strong risk-on week, with all indices up, and risk index NDX outperforming, although with early technical signs of fragility.

Oil, Gold, the yen and the Dollar continued to range, either repeating or reversing last week’s move. They were joined this week by yields, as the US10 posted an inside week. Bitcoin continued to retreat, now 23% down in two weeks.

Earnings season steps up for the final week of January, as the two largest (free-float) companies in the world, AAPL and MSFT, ’cult’ stock TSLA, and Dow giants BA, V, JNJ, MMM and AXP all report. The tone of the season should be set by the end of the week. The Fed rate decision meeting is on Wednesday, and all eyes will be looking to see how close Chair Powell is aligned to his predecessor who spoke last week. First readings of US and German GDP for Q4 will show the extent of the COVID economic recovery. And don’t forget end-of-month sentiment positioning moves. February does not have the same magic cachet, and traders may try to front-run a pullback.

Monday January 18

MLK Day opened with strong Chinese data, which pushed European indices and US futures up. Unlike FTSE, DAX was firmly up, but in the absence of US money, other asset classes such as USD, Oil and Gold were generally flat. Bond markets were closed.

Tue Jan 19

Today Treasury Secretary nominee, and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen voiced strong support for the Biden $1.9Trn relief package. GS reported blowout earnings, however their shares fell slightly. Nevertheless the general trend was upwards with SPX up 0.8% and NDX outperforming adding 1.5%. Oil was also up, and Bonds and Gold were down in line, although not by much.

Wednesday January 20

Today was pure inauguration enthusiasm, with a gap-up rally, with SPX and NDX at new highs, helped enormously by a 17% rise in NFLX after beating on subscriber estimates and hinting at buybacks (the engine of rallies). The SPX inauguration rally was the biggest since Ronald Reagan’s in 1985. All the FANG stocks outperformed. Surprisingly Oil was flat, and Gold, after a sharp dip around inauguration time ended up on the day, as did Bonds and the yen. The dollar overall was more or less flat after a choppy day.

Thursday January 21

President Biden moved immediately today to rejoin WHO and the Paris Accord, and to scrap the Muslim travel ban. John Roe of L&G said “The concept of a United States that isolates itself … is being reversed very rapidly and that is good for international co-operation, international law and international trade.”. Markets made new highs, but only just, given the strength of the rally to date. Bonds were down in line, and Gold was flat. However Oil was slightly down. The dollar continued downwards, with no significant change on the ECB press conference.

Friday January 22

After rallying all week, markets took a breather and pulled back slightly today, with some scepticism about the speed of the stimulus package. SPX was down 0.3%. Oil was down and Bonds were up in line. A safe haven dollar once again rose, more than yen, for once, and of course Gold was up in line with both the dollar and the mood.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

NDX substantially outperformed this week, up 4.39%, more than twice that of any other index. The top forex mover was NZDCAD up 1.0%. Bitcoin fell again, down nearly 10%. FANGs were superb, all outperforming even NDX.

Last time, I was right about EURGBP, however it only made 0.11%, totalling 1.23% (3/3 wins). This week I'll go back to buying EURNZD

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

Monday January 25

As is often on Mondays, a quiet start to the week.

09:00 Germany IFO – Business Sentiment Reports

13:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

23:50 BoJ MPC Minutes

Tuesday January 26

The first big earnings day of the week with JNJ, MMM and AXP (together 9.74% of DJIA) all reporting before the bell, and MSFT (8.95% of NDX) reporting after the close. Macro data on the day is light.

07:00 UK UnEmp/AHE (UnEmp e5.1% p4.9%)

14:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices

15:00 US Consumer Confidence

23:30 Aus Westpac Leading Index

Wednesday January 27

Troubled Dow giant BA reports before the bell, but all the action today comes towards the end. At 1900 the Fed will indicate where they stand on COVID and stimulus, and then after the bell we have reporting from AAPL, TSLA and FB, together 21% of NDX by weight.

00:30 Australia CPI (e1.5% p1.6%)

07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey

10:00 DE10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)

13:30 US Durable/ND Capital Goods (Durables e0.9% p1.0%)

19:00 Fed Rate Decision/Statement/Presser (e0.25% hold)

23:50 Japan Retail Sales

Thursday January 28

The first reading of US Q4 GDP today will give a feel for normal growth, as the previous quarter (33.4%) was based on the extremely low March base. Dow regulars report today; MCD before the bell, and V after the close.

10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence/Business Climate

13:00 Germany CPI (e-0.6% p-0.7%)

13:30 US PCE (QoQ)

13:30 US Jobless Claims

13:30 US Q4 GDP Prelim (e4.4% p33.4%) 

15:00 US New Home Sales

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI

23:30 Japan Jobs/Unemployment

23:50 Japan Industrial Production

Friday January 29

More Dow components CAT, CVX and HON report today before the bell. In macro news, the Canadian GDP and Michigan Consumer Sentiment are important.

08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate/Change

09:00 Germany Q4 Prelim GDP (p8.5%)

13:30 US PCE (MoM and YoY)

13:30 Canada Q4 GDP (MoM)

14:45 Chicago PMI

15:00 Michigan CSI

Week to Jan 15th

Bank earnings beats, COVID cases increase, Trump silenced

MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURGBP

This week saw President Trump universally condemned for encouraging the Capitol rioters, ‘cancelled’ on social media and impeached in the House. The social media bans strengthened the argument that these giants are publishers not merely platforms, which depressed their stock. Despite the global vaccine rollout proceeding without any issues, countries around the world are still experiencing a rising second wave of COVID cases, and this sobering thought firmly arrested the seasonal rally this week, and pushed Oil, gold and the dollar back into consolidation mode. SPX and DAX had inside weeks. Bears may well be paraphrasing St Augustine and saying ‘grant me herd immunity but not yet!’

Next week is foreshortened by the Martin Luther King holiday, but the four days are packed with events.  Earnings seasons begins, although the negative reception on Friday to excellent JPM and Citi results demonstrates the clear turn in sentiment from the previous week. There is also the Biden inauguration speech and initial executive orders, which may show his priorities. If this were not enough, there are four major rate decisions, culminating in the ECB on Thursday, and plenty of other important data. Volatility is therefore likely both in equities and currencies.

Mon Jan 11
Just like last week, the market worried about COVID on Monday., perhaps its digesting the weekend figures. Bitcoin also fell sharply from its new highs over the weekend. Anyway, last week’s (arguably overdone) rally was stopped in its tracks, and SPX fell 0.7%, with NDX falling further, largely because of a reaction to the social media bans on President Trump. TWTR fell 6.4% and FB 4%. This was partly due to Trump supporters showing their opinions, but mainly because there is a feeling that this editorial censorship action means accelerates the move of social media companies to being publishers rather than just platforms. Publishers suffer a much greater regulatory burden than plain tech companies. Oil fell in line.

The risk-off mood saw the safe haven dollar rise again, although of course it is still hovering around the DXY 89.00 support level. Gold and bonds fell in line with the dollar. Yen also fell, but surprisingly less than other currencies.

Tuesday January 12

The Democrats unsurprisingly introduced an impeachment article on Donald Trump today. However equity markets were flat as stimulus and vaccine hopes balanced COVID case increases. Oil did a little better, rallying and briefly touching a 10-month high on Saudi cuts this month. After dipping in early trading, bonds rallied after a GS report that 2% inflation would come sooner rather than later. The dollar was back down, continuing in the DXY 89-91 consolidation we have seen for a month now., which pushed Gold and currencies up. Bonds were up on the day, but only slightly. 

Wednesday January 13

A slight rise in SPX today as indecisive markets digest the vaccination rates and Biden stimulus versus new cases, although NDX was noticeably up. US inflation came in as expected and didn’t move the market. The dollar continued to range, up slightly today. Bonds were up, but again within range. Gold fell on the weaker dollar (and equities), and Oil gave up yesterday’s gains. A weak risk-on day.

Thursday January 14

Today DJIA briefly made a new ATH of 31220 (and RUT of 2164.319) before pulling back into the close (so Europe closed up). The new jobless claims figure was a shock, at 965k the highest since August, and well above the 795k estimate. After an early rally, the dollar was down, after Fed Chair Powell reiterated that a rate rise was not on the cards. “We are not going to hike until inflation reaches 2%”, he said—and remember that’s with the new ‘averaging’ policy, in short a single month or two over 2% would not be enough. Oil and yields (inverse to bond prices) were up in line with the early rally. Gold was flat on the day.

Friday January 15

We said last week that Friday would show some volatility, and it did. Despite earnings beats from JPM, C and WFC, all three stocks fell. The JPM move after blowout EPS and revenue beats showed how sharply sentiment has turned negative, especially after the bad miss on US Retail Sales. Michigan sentiment missed also. All indices were down, and further proof of the risk-off view was that NDX fell further, and a final rally attempt failed as you can see from the chart, where LOD was EOD, always a bad sign. The collapse meant a clear move into safe-haven USD, yen, and bonds (but not Gold, see many commentaries passim) and of course a sharp drop in Oil.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
Indices were all down except NKY this week, the biggest mover being NDX. Buying GBPNZD was the best forex trade, up 1.44%. Bitcoin pulled back from the ATH last week, but not by much. FANGs were down worst than NDX itself in this risk-off week.

Last time, I was right about NZD, it was the weakest currency last week, and although EURUSD was also weak, the EURNZD pair still made 0.33%, so that’s 1.12% (2/2 wins). This week I cannot resist the fifth touch of 0.8860 support on EURGBP so I am buying it.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Biden inauguration
• Earnings season starts
• China, Canada, EU and Japan rate decisions
• Germany, UK, Canada inflation

Monday January 18

Markets are closed today for Martin Luther King’s birthday, and there is no significant news from Europe or the US. There is a rate decision in Hungary.

02:00 China GDP Q4 (e3.2% p2.7%)

02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY e5.5% p5.0%)

04:30 Japan Industrial Production

Tuesday January 19

A big day on earnings today with more banks, BAC and GS before the open, and NFLX after the close. There is an EcoFin meeting on banking procedures. The main news of the day is German inflation.

07:00 Germany CPI (YoY e-0.7% p-0.7%)

09:00 ECB Bank Lending Survey

10:00 Germany ZEW Sentiment Surveys

18:00 BoE Haldane speech

Wednesday January 20

The big news event today is of course President Biden’s inauguration, the market will be listening to his speech to get a sense of his priorities. Earnings continues pre-bell with Dow stalwarts PG and top-weighted UNH, along with more banks. Rate decisions today from China, Canada and also Brazil.

01:30 PBoC Rate Decision/Statement (e3.85% hold)

07:00 UK CPI (YoY e0.5% p0.3%)

07:00 Germany PPI

10:00 Eurozone CPI

13:30 Canada BoC CPI (Core YoY e1.2% p1.5%)

15:00 BoC Rate/Decision Statement (e0.25% hold)

16:15 BoC Press Conference

23:50 Japan Imports/Exports/TB

Thursday January 21

The earnings action today moves to post-market, with tech (but not internet) gains INTC and IBM after the bell. There is an EU Leaders Summit by video to discuss COVID response. There are also rate decisions in Norway, Turkey and South Africa.

00:00 Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations

00:30 Aus NFP/UnEmp (NFP e50k p90k)

03:00 BoJ Rate Decision/Statement (e-0.1% hold)

06:00 BoJ Press Conference

12:45 ECB Rate Decision/Statement (e0% hold)

13:30 US Building Permits/Housing Starts

13:30 US Jobless Claims

13:30 Philly Fed Mfr Survey

13:30 ECB President Lagarde Presser

15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence

22:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank Services/Mfr PMI

23:30 Japan National CPI

Friday January 22

The week ends with a raft of PMIs. No major earnings reports today.

00:30 Aus Retail Sales (p7.1%)

07:00 UK Retail Sales

08:30 Germany Markit PMIs (Mfr e58 p58.3)

09:00 Eurozone Markit PMIs (Comp e47.8 p49.1)

09:30 UK Markit PMIs (Svcs e45.3 p49.4)

13:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM p0.4%)

14:45 US Markit PMIs

Week to Jan 8th

Surprise Senate win for Dems, NFP Miss ignored, Trump banned from social media

MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY EURNZD

In a week which saw a surprise win of Senate control by Joe Biden’s incoming Democrat administration, and what was effectively the end of the Trump era, as the President was banned from social media after encouraging his supporters to break into Congress, markets took an initial post-holiday opening dip and then rallied again to new highs. Markets shrugged off the NFP Miss, and also the rising COVID-19 second wave, placing their hopes in the vaccines and a higher level of ’stimulus check’, now GOP resistance has been removed.

Next week is somewhat of a pause, as unusually, earnings season does not start until Friday, as always, opened by JPM, C, and WFC who tend to be taken as bellwethers. It remains to be seen whether the dying Trump administration does anything unusual, prior to the Biden inauguration the week after. The week is light on macro data (only US inflation really matters), but heavy on CB speakers, culminating with Chair Powell on Thursday.

Mon Jan 4

The new trading year opened with a sharp sell-off in equities, possibly COVID-linked, but more likely an undoing of end-of-year window dressing. Notably all FANGs fared worse than the market as a whole, although TSLA was bid. Sterling sold off on the first working day of the post-Brexit world, although EUR rose, meaning a slight uptick in USD. Gold and bonds rose and Oil fell, in line with the equity move.

Tuesday January 5

It was Turnaround Tuesday for stocks as they rebounded on hopes of a Dem win in Georgia, although VIX remained elevated showing how markets dislike uncertainty. A unified Congress and White House would indicate further stimulus. The safe haven dollar fell 0.4% on easing hopes, pushing yields and Gold up. Oil was also up in line with equities. FTSE was up following yesterday’s GBP fade, but DAX closed red on COVID fears.

Wednesday January 6

Today was a big day in US politics. The Democrats won both GA seats, ensuring control of Congress, and President Trump’s supporters broke through police lines into the Congress building (a symbolic assault on democracy itself) and the President himself was universally condemned for encouraging this. Social media companies banned him, many other Republicans distanced themselves and today may well be the end of the Trump era. The unified Congress result was seen as likely to produce more help for COVID, so tech money rotated into industrials, defensives and once again UK stocks, with FTSE having its best day since November. Copper (a green energy proxy) hit $8,000/t for the first time since 2013. The safe haven US dollar, and Gold, and bonds were down, and Oil was up in line.

Thursday January 7

All three indices hit new all-time highs today as the blue sweep euphoria continued. Oil was up and Gold, bonds and yen all fell. The dollar had hit it’s 30-month support level (89.25) on Wednesday, and so bounced back up. Normal risk-on today, as NDX outperformed and Europe underperformed.

Friday January 8

After faltering early in the day, after a disappointing -140k miss on NFP, and Dem objections to the $2,000 stimulus level, markets rallied strongly into the close. NDX rose all day and outperformed. The strength of vaccine/stimulus sentiment clearly outweighed anything else in the end. Once again, Oil was up, and Gold, bonds and yen down in line. The 10-year yield broke through 1% for the first time since the pandemic. Overall the dollar was up again, for the technical reasons stated for Thursday. Overall, stocks had their best week since November, better than any December week, showing the January Effect in action.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

Indices were up this week, with FTSE strongly outperforming up 6.39%. The strongest forex pair was EURGBP up 1.55%. Cryptos were amazing, with Bitcoin up 40% to over $40,000 and Ethereum posting its best every week, up 64.9%, justifying the faith of the ‘HODL’ community. FANGS definitely underperformed, as investors preferred COVID-damaged stocks, also shown with NDX underperforming for the week.

I bought EURUSD last week and it is up 0.79%. Having filed 25 of 42 wins and 9.81% profit in 2020, I am starting again, so it’s 0.79%, 1 of 1. I think EUR has further to go, whereas NZD is very extended, so I will buy EURNZD this week, avoid a guess on the dollar.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Earnings season starts Friday
• Heavy CB speaker list
• US and Chinese inflation
• OpEx week

Monday, January 11

A very quiet data week, where focus will be on the stimulus package. The current P/E of SPX is over 38, so the market is fragile and susceptible to any major problems.

00:30 Aus Retail Sales

01:30 China CPI (YoY e0.1% p-0.5%)

14:00 BoE Tenreyro speech

14:30 BoC Business Outlook Survey

15:00 BoE Governor Bailey speech

Tuesday January 12

No significant data at all today, but three CB speakers. There is a rate decision in Russia.

10:00 BoE Broadbent speech

14:35 Fed Brainard speech

19:00 Fed Rosengren speech

Wednesday January 13

US Inflation is the biggest macro print this week which shows you how quiet it is. There is a rate decision in Poland

10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production

13:30 US CPI (Core MoM e0.1% p0.2%)

18:00 Fed Brainard speech

19:00 US Monthly Budget Statement(Dec)

19:00 Fed Beige Book

20:00 Fed Clarida speech

Thursday January 14

Even today’s Jay Powell speech is only a discussion at Princeton University.

02:00 China Imports/Exports/TB (time approx.)

13:30 US Jobless Claims

17:30 Fed Chair Powell speech

Friday January 15

Today is likely to be the most volatile day of the week as it’s OpEx day. More importantly it is ‘JPM day’, the traditional opening of earnings season, where America’s largest bank, JP Morgan and co announce their earnings, guidance and usually add some valuable insight on their view of the market. Also reporting before the bell are WFC and C, the third and fourth largest banks in the US (BAC, the second largest report next week). Every business is a bank customer, so they are a bellwether of the economy as a whole.

07:00 UK Mfr/Ind Production

07:00 UK GDP (Nov MoM)

13:30 US Retail Sales (Control Group e0.2% p-0.5%)

13:30 US PPI

15:00 Michigan Prelim CSI