Saturday, 31 March 2018

Week to Mar 30th


Monday March 26
The week opened with a sharp rebound after the worst week for two years. US indices and NKY were up as trade war fears receded, and Chicago Fed National Activity beat at 1230. However, DAX and FTSE were down, reflecting their currency strength, EUR was up 0.8% and GBP up 0.7%. USD was weak everywhere except against JPY, with DXY falling 0.4%. Gold rose in line with the weaker dollar, however US 10-year bond yields were up. Oil prices slipped slightly after Friday’s sharp rise.

Tuesday March 27
The Monday rally was short-lived, and US equities fell on Tuesday, led by the tech fallout which itself was led by growing concern about the wholesale political use of data by Facebook, and the Uber self-driving car pedestrian fatality. Uber is not of course listed, but the autonomous component manufacturers, such as NVDA fell sharply.  DJIA dropped by 1.4%, NDX by nearly 3%, and the FANG stocks had their worst day ever. Some of the rotation was into bonds, not Gold, and so both yields (down to a seven week low at 2.77%) and the precious metal fell, whereas the equity risk-off sentiment was demonstrated by the fact that JPY rose against the dollar, whereas all other currencies fell. Oil fell in line with the dollar strength. A complete Turnaround Tuesday across all asset classes. To put the post-February crash volatility into perspective, Deutsche Bank reported that the average DJIA move for the last four days was 541 points, compared to 2017 where the average daily move was 68 points, and there were only three days last year where there was a 300 point move.

Wednesday March 28
The tech collapse continued on Wednesday although less aggressively, NDX was down 1.06%. However the four FANG stocks (that we cover) were down 2.46%. SPX was only down 0.3%, and DAX, FTSE and NKY, which have little in the way of tech components, rose, although this was largely helped by firm moves down in their respective currencies. USD rallied after the GDP Q4 beat at 1230 (2.9% vs 2.7%, comfortably above inflation), and DXY put on 0.8% on the day, with all currencies and Gold down. Yields were back up in line. Oil fell sharply by 1.5% after the EIA miss (which matched the API miss the day before), although it quickly recovered to finish  the day roughly flat.

Thursday March 29
We said last week that the last trading day of the week, month and quarter (and the fiscal year for some European companies) should see volatility, and so we did, with DJIA putting on 500 points from the 0400 low to the 2000 high, then giving up 200 points in the final hour. All indices were up, continuing the see-saw price/action, particularly into the close. Even troubled FB put on 4.42%. The dollar picture was very mixed, DXY fell a mere 12 cents (0.14%), but this was the effect of EUR and GBP fading slightly, whereas JPY and CAD [despite the GDP miss at 1230] appreciated, as did AUD (not in DXY). Oil was back up, touching $65 again, whereas Gold was flat on the day. There was also some bond buying into the quarter close at yields fell 4bp to close at a low for the week.

Friday March 30
Equity and bond markets, indeed the entire US and European exchanges were closed for the Good Friday holiday. NKY traded the cash session dipping 150 points but recovering to end flat. Forex markets were, as you would expect very subdued, with a very slight bias against USD. The most notable move was a 0.25% appreciation in CAD in 90 minutes from 0800, but this faded, and the loonie ended the day down. A similar pattern was seen in GBP, but EUR and JPY were up. If DXY had been quoted on Friday, it would have ended about 0.1% down.

Please note all figures and percentages given for daily movement on indices cover the entire cash and futures period in that day.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

USD was up across the board this week, but not by much. The only pair that moved more than 1% was USDJPY, which would have been this week’s best forex trade. Despite all indices except DAX and NKY putting in inside weeks, movement was a bit more lively, with NKY the standout winner, helped by the falling yen.

Crypto-currencies had another crash, were mixed, with Ethereum hitting a four-month low. Bitcoin has now lost 65% from its December high. (Our prices are given as at 0000GMT Saturday, two hours after the other markets close.)

AUDUSD  0.7679 (-0.32%)
EURGBP  0.8786 (+0.50%)
EURUSD  1.2321 (-0.30%)
GBPUSD  1.4029 (-0.76%)
NZDUSD  0.7232 (-0.12%)
USDCAD  1.2895 (+0.17%)
USDJPY  106.26 (+1.35%)
DAX      12121 (+2.79%)
FTSE      6990 (+1.87%)
NIFTY    10113 (+1.15%)
NKY      21476 (+4.17%)
SPX     2634.9 (+1.58%)
GOLD   1325.03 (-1.68%)
OIL      64.88 (-1.28%)
BTCUSD    6803 (-23.78%)
ETHUSD  389.25 (-28.32%)


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

A new week, month, quarter, and for many Europeans, fiscal year. Also Australia and New Zealand have exited DST. Australia is now GMT+11, New Zealand GMT+12. Plenty of data this week, but in the end it will be a build-up to NFP. The Jewish festival of Pesach runs all week.

Monday April 2
Easter Monday is a public holiday in the UK, Australia and NZ, so expect lower volatility in forex in the morning session, as London provides the most volume in this asset class. FTSE and ASX will of course be closed, but Germany, Japan and the US are open. The important print of the day is the US ISM PMI, but it is more likely that new quarter positioning will influence price/action on the day.

Tuesday April 3
The RBA are expected to hold rates, and any upsets are unlikely. Otherwise we have various PMIs and Fed voting dove Neel Kashkari as the sole listed speaker of the day.

Wednesday April 4
Eurozone inflation is at 0900, although this rarely moves EUR as the constituent countries report in advance of the continent-wide figure. Of more interest is the ADP figure. The estimate is 205k, only 6k different from the NFP estimate. As always, a strong beat or miss may cause equity and USD volatility. Two Fed speakers today, both voters. Bullard (dove) is at 1445 and Mester (hawkish) at 1600. Bullard’s topic is the economy and monetary policy so his words are likely to be of more interest to traders. Taiwan is closed today until the following Monday. Watch oil for the EIA print, it has been reacting the last few weeks, and more importantly even when the API print has given a clear clue.

Thursday April 5
The UK personal tax year ends. Expect some private investors to ‘bed-and-breakfast’ their holdings, ie to sell and re-buy the next day, to crystallise gains or losses, and use their annual £11,300 ($15,800) capital gains tax allowance, although this is not likely to seriously affect FTSE, and we don’t cover the UK junior markets. The ECB minutes will only move EUR if something unexpected appears. There is a small volatility opportunity in USDCAD at 1230, when both countries report trade figures simultaneously. Obviously one has to beat and the other to miss to get the desired effect.

Friday April 6
The first NFP day of Q2 has a ‘normal’ estimate of 198k, but as always watch for the AHE print. Last month we had a stellar jobs number but disappointing AHE and the market still soared. Of course logically the jobs affect equities whereas AHE affects USD (as it is the important determinant of rate rises). The Canadian print is simultaneous so we get another opportunity to trade USDCAD volatility, which is assured. The Canadian estimate is an extremely modest 4.1k. Also, Fed Chair Powell gives his first speech since the March rate hike in Chicago at 1530.


CALENDAR (all times are GMT). High volatility items are in bold

Sun Apr 01
23:50 JPY Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index/Outlook/Capex

Mon Apr 02
01:45 CNY China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
13:30 CAD Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI
14:00 USD US ISM Manufacturing PMI/Prices Paid
22:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ)
22:00 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speech
22:30 AUD Australia AiG Performance of Mfg Index

Tue Apr 03
04:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision/Statement
06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales (MoM)
07:55 EUR Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI
08:00 EUR Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI
08:30 GBP UK Markit Manufacturing PMI
13:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speech
14:00 NZD GDT Milk Index (time approx)
20:30 WTI API Stock

Wed Apr 04
01:30 AUD Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
01:30 AUD Australia Building Permits (MoM)
01:45 CNY Caixin China Services PMI
08:30 GBP UK PMI Construction
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI
12:15 USD US ADP Employment Change
13:45 USD Markit Services/Composite PMI
14:00 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI/Factory Orders
14:30 WTI API Stock
15:00 USD FOMC Member Mester speech

Thu Apr 05
00:30 AUD Australia Exports/Imports/Trade Balance
08:00 EUR Eurozone Markit Services/Composite PMIs
08:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI
08:55 EUR Germany Markit Services/Composite PMI
11:30 EUR ECB MPC Minutes
12:30 USD US Trade Balance
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims
12:30 CAD Canada International Merchandise Trade
23:30 JPY Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY)

Fri Apr 06
06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production (YoY)
12:15 CAD Housing Starts (YoY)
12:30 USD NFP/Unemployment/AHE/Participation (NFP est 198k prev 313k)
12:30 CAD Canada NFP/Unemployment/AHE/Participation
14:00 CAD Canada Ivey PMI
17:00 WTI Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
19:00 USD US Consumer Credit Change

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here.

Saturday, 24 March 2018

Week to Mar 23rd


Monday March 19
Monday saw the Facebook scandal break, concerning the use of 50m accounts for political purposes. The stock had its worst day in nearly four years, falling nearly 7%, which, together with lingering fears about a trade war, inevitably cast a shadow over the whole equity market. NDX fell 2.2% (FB is 5.13% of NDX), SPX by 1.4%, and DAX, NKY and FTSE followed suit, the latter exacerbated by a strong showing in GBP. The DAX index made a ’death cross’ where the 50-day moving average moved below the 200-day moving average. USD was mixed, with GBP (above 1.40 again), EUR, CAD and Gold advancing, whereas AUD and JPY retreated slightly. Oil was more or less flat, and 10-year US Treasury Bond yields were up 6bp at 2.857%

Tuesday March 20
Although Facebook continued to decline, in general it was Turnaround Tuesday as both equities and USD recovered. All indices were up, but only recovering a part of Monday’s losses. Even NDX managed a small 0.22% gain. The dollar’s rise into the expected rate hike is not unusual, and USD advanced against Gold and all currencies except CAD which continued to recover from the eight-and-a-half month low set last week, benefiting also from a sharp upturn in Oil (due to further Middle East tensions, and the contract expiry), and its status as a country most likely to exempted from the Trump trade wars to come. NZD had a particularly bad day down 0.83% after the poor milk auction figures. US yields were up again, into the FOMC, putting on 4bp to 2.88%

Wednesday March 21
Tuesday’s recovery from Monday was slight, and today markets gave up that slight recovery, although there was not much volatility. SPX and DJIA ended only 0.2% down, and NDX 0.3% down. DAX, FTSE and NKY were also in the red. The FOMC duly delivered their widely expected 25bp rate increase, which caused an sharp 0.75% drop in DXY. All currencies (and Gold) were up. In particular CAD was up 1.29% on NAFTA hopes and another big rise in Oil, which in turn was up 2.81% (and 5.31% so far for the week) on fears of new Iranian sanctions, and following the 1430 EIA stock beat. Also GBP was up 1.02% after the 0930 unemployment/average earnings beat, and progress in the Brexit transition agreement. Gold was up significantly, posting its best day since May 2017, up rising 1.7% to $1,333. US bond yields did not join the party, suggesting the moves were more driven by the other currencies than USD itself. They were flat on the day.

Thursday March 22
Stocks fells heavily all day today as the US stepped up the trade war by announcing further tariffs on Chinese imports. SPX erased all March’s gains with its worst day since the extreme moves at the beginning of  February, falling 2.5%, with the DJIA giving up over 400 points in the last two hours alone. Other indices fell in line around the world, DAX was down 1.7% and FTSE 1.2% at the cash close and continued to decline in the futures session.

USD was still digesting the FOMC rate hike, which was essentially hawkish (one extra hike in 2019). However, performance was mixed. USD did advance against most currencies, but the risk-off in equities saw JPY, Gold and bonds (inverse to yields) up in line. 10-year yields dropped 4bp. The 7-2 BoE rate decision (9-0 expected, ie two members voted for a hike) gave GBP a brief 60 pip rally to touch a seven-week high on 1.4217, but it quickly faded. Oil was up again, although it posted an inside day. 

Friday March 23
The equity rout continued on Friday, after Trump announced yet another replacement, this time NatSec Advisors HR McMaster is out of the door, and more importantly China retaliated with new tariffs against US imports. After falling in Asia, markets recovered slightly during the European session, only to fall again sharply later. There was plenty of volatility, for example DJIA had recovered 400 points from the Asian only to give up 600 points in the last two hours. SPX and DJIA posted the lowest weekly closes since November, the former down nearly 6% on  the week, and VIX hit a six-week high. DAX, FTSE and NKY fell in line.

In currencies, there was a flight to risk-off safety, with JPY, Gold and CHF sharply up. EUR and GBP were also up resulting in DX/y giving up 0.5% on the day. The Canadian CPI beat at 1330 added an immediate 86 pips (0.67%) to the loonie, and although some of this faded, it also ended the day up. AUD had rallied early, but gave up all those gains to end the day flat. Oil continued its advance despite the higher rig count to put on another 2.5% and close at a seven-week high of $65.90. Yields continued to fall, giving up another 2bp on the day.

Please note all figures and percentages given for daily movement on indices cover the entire cash and futures period in that day.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

Last week’s best forex trade was to buy CADJPY, this week’s was to sell it for a 2.73% move. For the second week, shorting SPX was the best index trade. Volatility returned to Oil, but it still moved less than SPX which is unusual.

For once, crypto-currencies were mixed. Bitcoin recovered some of last weeks fade to close up, whereas Ethereum continued downwards. For the first time since we started reporting, the weekly moves were less than 10%. (Our prices are given as at 0000GMT Saturday, three hours after the other markets close.)

AUDUSD 0.7704 (-0.21%)
EURGBP 0.8742 (-0.76%)
EURUSD 1.2358 (+0.57%)
GBPUSD 1.4136 (+1.37%)
NZDUSD 0.7241 (+0.36%)
USDCAD 1.2873 (-1.70%)
USDJPY 104.84 (-1.03%)
DAX     11792 (-4.88%)
FTSE     6862 (-4.08%)
NIFTY    9998 (-1.93%)
NKY     20617 (-4.89%)
SPX    2593.8 (-5.71%)
GOLD  1347.73 (+2.60%)
OIL     65.72 (+5.44%)
BTCUSD   8926 (+7.35%)
ETHUSD 543.02 (-9.86%)


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

Europe and the UK start Daylight Savings Time this week. This means that Europeans and the US are back in sync on timing. DST continues for one more week in Australia. The calendar times shown below are therefore not UK times. UK readers should add one hour (and CET readers 2 hours etc.)

Monday March 26
The week starts off very quietly with no news of consequence. Two Fed speakers today, Dudley (voter, neutral) at 1730 and Mester (voter, hawkish) at 2130. 

Tuesday March 27
Another quiet day with only the Eurozone confidence indicators to watch. Today’s speakers are Fed Quarles (0010) and Bostic (1600). Both are FOMC voters but neutral. Hungary, Brazil and Argentina make rate decisions, holds are expected.

Wednesday March 28
The most important economic release of the day and of the week is the US GDP followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (inflation proxy). Also in the US, Fed Bostic speaks again at 1700. PBOC Deputy Gov Pan speaks in China at 0200. South Africa makes a rate decision, a cut is expected.

Thursday March 29
The last trading day of the week, month and quarter should see some portfolio rebalancing and therefore volatility across all asset classes. Important releases include German inflation and the YoY and MoM parts of PCE, although their effect is muted by the QoQ figure being released the day before. Note the German national inflation figure is preceded during the European morning by figures for the German regions, so the final figure is less of a surprise. Markets are closed in India.

Friday March 30
The Good Friday holiday into Easter means US, European and Australasian markets are closed. China, Japan and therefore forex trading are still open, but importantly CME Globex observes the holiday, so US index futures will be closed.

CALENDAR (all times are GMT). High volatility items are in bold

Sun Mar 25
21:45 NZD NZ Imports/Exports/Trade Balance

Mon Mar 26
12:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index 

Tue Mar 27
00:00 AUD Australia HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate
13:00 USD US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)
20:30 WTI API Stock

Wed Mar 28
07:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
12:30 USD US GDP Q4
13:30 USD US PCE QoQ Q4
14:00 USD US Pending Home Sales (MoM)
14:30 WTI EIA Stock
21:45 NZD NZ Building Permits (MoM)
23:50 JPY Japan Retail Sales

Thu Mar 29
08:00 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate/Change
08:30 GBP UK GDP
08:30 GBP UK Mortgage Approvals
12:00 EUR Germany CPI
12:30 USD US PCE MoM, YoY
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims
12:30 CAD Canada GDP (MoM)
13:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index
23:30 JPY Japan Tokyo CPI
23:30 JPY Japan Unemployment, Jobs/applicants ratio

Fri Mar 30
00:01 GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence
01:00 CNY China NBS PMIs
17:00 WTI Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here.

Sunday, 18 March 2018

Week to Mar 16th


Monday March 12
Friday’s indices finished on a high (ie EOD=HOD), so it was no surprise that the rally continued into Monday’s Asian session and briefly into the European day. However, some markets faltered in the US session, and SPX and DJIA closed slightly down as tariff concerns caused money to flow into the tech sector. NDX briefly hit a new all-time high (remember those?) breaching 7,600 for the first time, and closed at 7,588. FTSE and NKY (up in the cash session, reflecting Friday’s US NFP blowout) were down on stronger GBP and JPY respectively. Only DAX managed to hold its own, after some positive changes in the German utilities market. It finished the day roughly flat.

Other than the aforementioned pound and yen, the currency and Gold position was generally flat, after a brief dollar rally faded. After a new US 10-year bond auction, which was at a yield of 2.889% (and 2.5:1 oversubscribed), the highest for four years, yields eased to close at 2.87%. Oil gave up Friday’s gains and closed at $61.33.

Tuesday March 13
The big news of the day was the dismissal of US SecState Tillerson by the President and markets did not like it, nor were they impressed by US inflation only matching the estimate of 2.1%, and the ‘core’ figure of 1.8% remaining stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% target. All indices were down, in particular NDX (which was retracing the Monday spike) and DAX (which had not reacted the day before). 

Currencies were very mixed, EUR and GBP were materially up on the Tillerson news, but JPY and CAD were similarly down, although the former recovered somewhat into the close, and then fell 30 points on the BoJ MPC minutes we mentioned last week. GBP was helped by an upbeat Spring statement from UK Chancellor (Finance Minister) Hammond. CAD was hampered by dovish remarks from BoC Governor Poloz at 1415. AUD fell slightly. Clearly not all countries are favoured equally in Trump foreign policy. Gold and bonds (inverse to yields) were slightly on the uncertainty. Oil was very volatile at the US open, rising 1.5% to then fall 2.5% all in a space of 90 minutes. It ended the day down.

Wednesday March 14
We said last week that Tuesday’s US CPI was more important than today’s US Retail Sales, but as CPI unusually came in neither a beat nor a miss, the miss today further depressed a market already digesting the Tillerson departure. SPX and NKY were down again (as JPY rose), however DAX and FTSE managed to post a green candle, the former being helped by a retreating euro. Notably MICEX was down nearly 2% following the international condemnation of Russia’s alleged spy assassination with a banned chemical weapon.

Currencies continued to follow their own patterns. In general USD was down on the Retail Sales print. JPY was comfortably up, where AUD and CAD recovered only slightly. GBP (and Gold) were flat on the day, holding onto the previous gains whereas EUR did not, after dovish remarks from ECB President Draghi at 0800. Oil reacted logically to the EIA stock miss at 1430, fading 1.3% in an hour, but fully recovering this by the pit close at 1830 and actually closing up. The reaction was not instantaneous, and so was quite tradable.

Thursday March 15
The game of musical chairs continued at 1600 Penn, with Larry Kudlow replacing Gary Cohn as Trump’s economic advisor. Ex-CIA boss Mike Pompeo has been pencilled in as Tillerson’s replacement. Both these are considered to be closer to Trump on policy than their predecessors. US markets were mixed, SPX was more or less flat (down 0.1%), NDX was down 0.2%, whereas DJIA actually rose 0.5%, which was probably a reversion to mean of the flow we mentioned on Monday, as top-weight aluminium consumer BA still fell. In Europe DAX and FTSE were up as EUR and GBP faded.

Despite their elevated levels, bond yields reversed and put on 1bp. This was read as anticipation of next week’s near certain rate hike, and USD started to react, and advanced again all major currencies. Gold fell in line. Only, notably, NOK was up on clear pointers to a rate rise soon from NB (after the 0.5% rate was held this time). Oil was slightly up on the day.

Friday March 16
Friday was monthly Open day. The unsettling US political news continued with rumours that Trump is considering replacing NatSec advisor McMaster, and that special counsel Mueller had subpoenaed the Trump Organisation for documents in his Russia probe. Nevertheless, the equities decline was arrested, as often happens after four days down, and indices were generally flat across the board, with beats on US Capacity Utilisation (1315), JOLTS job openings (1400), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (1400) balancing the political uncertainty.

Yields were up again today, and USD advanced after the solid economic data. Although DXY only put on 0.1%, it finished at a one-week high of 90.20. USD was mixed again. GBP and JPY advanced whereas other currencies and Gold gave up ground. Oil spiked up around 2% during the early US session. In the absence of news, this probably related to traders exiting contracts ahead of the April expiration next week.

Please note all figures and percentages given for daily movement on indices cover the entire cash and futures period in that day.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

Another mixed week for USD, retreating against GBP and JPY but advancing elsewhere. The  best forex trade would have been CADJPY, netting you 3.1%. The indices were relatively quieter, the best trade being to short SPX. Gold and Oil had flat weeks again.

Crypto-currencies continued their hard downward trajectory. Bitcoin continued to fall into the weekend, and looks increasingly like it will revisit the Feb 2nd $6,000 low. (Our prices are given as at 0000GMT Saturday, three hours after the other markets close.)

AUDUSD 0.7708 (-1.76%)
EURGBP 0.8809 (-0.80%)
EURUSD 1.2288 (-0.12%)
GBPUSD 1.3945 (+0.69%)
NZDUSD 0.7215 (-0.88%)
USDCAD 1.3095 (+2.22%)
USDJPY 105.93 (-0.82%)
DAX     12397 (+0.17%)
FTSE     7154 (-1.15%)
NIFTY   10195 (-0.30%)
NKY     21676 (-0.91%)
SPX    2750.8 (-1.11%)
GOLD  1313.54 (-0.74%)
OIL     62.33 (+0.34%)
BTCUSD   8315 (-9.79%)
ETHUSD 602.40 (-16.86%)


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

As we go into the penultimate week of the quarter, with the second week of the US/Europe disconnect on Daylight Saving Time, markets are focused on the Fed rate decision. The weekend sees the first round of the Russian Presidential Election. Putin is assured of victory.

Monday March 19
The G20 meeting starts in Argentina. US TreasSec Steve Mnuchin is attending. On the agenda inter alia is the regulation of cryptocurrencies. UK Brexit Secretary Davis commences two days of Brexit talks in Brussels. ECB Member Mersch speaks at 1800.

Tuesday March 20
The main economic release of the day is UK CPI. The April oil contract (CLJ18) expires. In the absence of any US news, price/action during the US session is likely to reflect positioning prior to the FOMC decision the next day.

Wednesday March 21
All eyes will be on the Fed rate decision. A hike of 25bp to 1.75% is 94.4% priced in according to CME Fedwatch, so as always, the focus will be on the ‘dot-plot’, the projections of each of the 16 members of the Fed regarding the range of future rate hikes. The UK average earnings print is important, because as we have said many times, the failure of wage growth has been the sticking point, both in the US and UK, that tempers rate increases. In Australia, RBA Boge speaks at ‘FX Week, Australia’ at 0230.

Thursday March 22
The EU leaders summit opens in Brussels, with the Brexit transition agreement to the fore. Also from Europe, ECB members Lautenschlaueger (0830) and Nouy (1000) are scheduled to speak. Together with UK Retail Sales, all this might cause some interesting positioning for the day’s main event, the BoE UK rate decision. A hold is expected, but watch out for a non-unanimous vote, and anything that can be gleaned from Governor Carney’s remarks. BoC Deputy Gov Wilkins speaks later in the day.

Friday March 23
The second day of the EU summit may produce some Brexit guidance. The Fed blackout is over now, and we have Bostic (centrist, voter) and Kashkari (dove, non-voter) speaking. CBR is expected to cut RUB rates today. Finally, the day marks the end of Trump’s tariff ‘waiting period’. The principal news print is Canadian CPI. Retail Sales is concurrent, but less important as it is only used as a CPI proxy anyway, and the release is only the MoM figure.


CALENDAR (all times are GMT). High volatility items are in bold

Sun Mar 18
23:50 JPY Japan Imports/Exports/Trade Balance

Mon Mar 19
00:00 EUR G20 Meeting
21:00 NZD Westpac consumer survey

Tue Mar 20
00:00 EUR G20 Meeting continues
00:30 AUD Australia House Price Index
01:30 AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes
04:15 AUD RBA Assistant Governor Bullock Speech
05:00 JPY Japan Coincident/Leading Economic Indices
09:30 GBP UK CPI
10:00 EUR Germany ZEW Sentiment Survey
14:00 NZD GDT Milk (time approx)
20:30 WTI API Stock

Wed Mar 21
08:00 EUR ECB non-MPC minutes
09:30 GBP UK Unemployment/Average Earnings
09:30 GBP UK Public Sector Net Borrowing
10:00 EUR DE10 Bond Auction (time approx)
14:00 USD US Existing Home Sales (MoM)
14:30 WTI EIA Stock
18:00 USD Fed Rate Decision and Press Conference (1.75% est, 1.50% prev)
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision and Statement

Thu Mar 22
00:00 EUR European Council meeting
01:30 AUD Australia Payrolls/Unemployment
04:30 JPY Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM)
08:55 EUR Germany Markit PMIs
09:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate/Expectations
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Bulletin
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMIs
09:30 GBP UK Retail Sales
12:00 GBP Rate Decision/Statement
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims
13:00 USD US Housing Price Index (MoM)
14:45 USD US Markit Services/Composite PMI
18:45 CAD BoC Wilkins Speech
23:30 JPY Japan CPI
23:50 JPY Japan FDI

Fri Mar 23
00:00 EUR European Council meeting
12:10 USD FOMC Member Bostic speech
12:30 CAD Canada Retail Sales (MoM)
12:30 CAD Canada CPI
12:30 USD Durable Goods
14:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speech
15:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM)
17:00 WTI Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here.


Sunday, 11 March 2018

Week to Mar 9th


Monday Mar 05
The Italian Election result was as feared, a strong showing for both anti-establishment mavericks M5S, and more ominously, the anti-EU Lega who got a larger share of the vote than FI. DAX and the Italian MIB indices both opened much lower and then moved down, with DAX breaking the psychological 12000. However, the fear was short-lived and the upward trend was resumed. MIB ended a mere 0.42% down on the day and the US and other European indices were up as worries about a trade war dissipated, and the US PMI prints came in as beats.

Currency movements showed us that it was a classic risk-on day, with JPY (down 0.72%) and Gold both falling. The picture was mixed elsewhere. EUR, AUD and GBP were up, whereas CAD was sharply down on tariff fears, despite Oil being up. US Treasury 10-year yields was up 3bp at 2.88%

Tuesday Mar 06
Our chart above seems to suggest a turnaround day on indices. That is because the line separators are drawn at midnight 0000 (see below). In fact by the US closing bell, equities were all slightly up on news at 1100 on talks of a detente meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-Un in April. Indeed, having previously faded after the RBA rate hold at 0330, AUD rose by nearly 1% in two hours on this news and NZD followed it. (KRW rose by 1.3%). The interesting thing is that Japan is also affected by NK stability, but its role as a risk-off haven won out, and JPY gave up 0.47%.

Around the same time, TreasSec Mnuchin said that Canada and Mexico would be exempt from the new steel tariff if NAFTA talks were successful. CAD promptly gained 1% in two hours and rose further after the Ivey PMI beat at 1500. (MXN gained 0.66%). EUR and GBP both liked the first break in the tariff rhetoric, and also shot up. All this resulted in a sharp fall in DXY (down 0.59%) on the day.

Surprisingly, with what seemed like good news Gold and yen did see a Turnaround Tuesdays, and were both up on the day. Oil was down (the API print missed at 2130), and after a lot of choppiness, yields closed flat.

Wednesday Mar 07
During the short closed period (2200-2300 Tue) before the Asian open, Trump’s economic advisor and GS alumnus Gary Cohn announced his resignation (over the tariff issue) which had a momentous effect. The Globex ES_F (SPX) future dropped 42 handles (1.55%), NKY cash opened 0.73% lower and DAX futures opened 1.55% lower at 0700. However, the effect was once again shortlived and SPX and FTSE recovered to end flat on the day. DAX ended up after the EUR ramp was stalled. Only NKY ended up red, partly due to the cash period timing, and also due to a Cohn-led ramp in JPY.

In currencies, once again there was a mixed picture. The Cohn announcement caused a sharp fade in AUD and CAD, and a sharp ramp in JPY. However recovery started almost immediately and AUD and JPY ended roughly flat. CAD of course had another story, the 1.25% rate hold at 1500. This produced a two-hour 90 pip (0.7%) fade in the loonie, which was immediately recovered around 1945, when Mnuchin firmed up the tariff exemption. EUR and GBP were hardly affected, and after a small rise in EUR, and small dip in GBP, both ended flat, and therefore, despite all the intraday volatility, so did DXY (up less than 0.1%). Gold went its own way and gave up most of the previous day’s gain, to end $9 down at $1,325. Yields were slightly up a volatile day.

We mentioned last week that (in the absence of major OPEC surprises and huge volatility) Oil has started to respond again to the EIA Stock print (at 1030 Eastern every Wednesday). And so it did this week, dropping 3% in two hours after the release. However the result was a small beat (+2.408M vs +2.723M), but clearly not the beat traders were looking for.

Thursday Mar 08
The equity uptrend continued as Trump formally adopted the new steel and aluminum tariffs but gave an immediate temporary exemption to Canada and Mexico, and opened the door for other countries to apply to exemptions. All indices rose steadily all day to finish at their intraday high.

The action on Thursday was in currencies. ECB President Draghis early remarks dropped the pledge to increase QE if necessary, which was hawkish and caused a slight rally. However the downward revision of the Eurozone 2019 inflation forecast, plus an accelerating dollar (on the tariff exemptions) pushed EUR down 148 pips (1.19%) from the rally high. We can see in this chart that it was more a dollar effect as other currencies (and Gold) followed EUR down without particular news triggers. CAD of course did not follow the pattern. The news benefited both USD and CAD, and as you would therefore expect, the pair was nearly flat. CAD edged a win, with USDCAD down 15 pips on the day. JPY also fell but the move was more muted ahead of the BoJ rate decision. Oil continued down, briefly breaking the $60 psychological level before the close. Yields were 2bp down at 2.86%

Friday Mar 09
BoJ Governor Kuroda’s first rate decision meeting since his reconfirmation was watched with more interest than normal, as he had made hawkish remarks setting a timetable for an end to stimulus at the confirmation hearing. In the event, this tone was not repeated at the press conference, and JPY, which had already been falling throughout the Asian session continued downwards, with USDJPY touching a two-week high of 106.95. The of course had a negative effect on NKY which at the intra-session low was 460 (2.1%) down.

More good news came out after North Korea offered to suspend missile tests pending the meeting in April. However, the main news of the day was NFP, which came in as a standout 313k new jobs, only marred by a miss of average hourly earnings. This was a dream scenario for equities in the “good news=bad news, or does it” scenario. The AHE miss is a damper on rate rises, whereas equities love the new jobs.

Equities also love a weak dollar (as we know only too well these last 12 months). Consequently US indices soared, with SPX adding 1.9% from the 1330 to the closing bell, finishing at the highest point since the early February sudden correction, and posting a marubozu (no wicks) candle for the week. Although other indices don’t benefit from the weak dollar, they followed suit. Notably DJIA is 1.5% away from that point, held down of course by steel/aluminum consumer heavyweights BA, CAT and KO. NDX did even better, breaking through 7000 to completely reverse the correction and make a new all-time high. A notable mover on Friday was GS, which dipped 1.3% briefly on the announcement that CEO Lloyd Blankfein is to retire, although it fully recovered later in the session.

The dollar, as mentioned above, was down across the board, with GBP performing particularly well, rising back above 1.39. The confirmed tariff exemption for Canada added 87 pips (0.68%) which completely overshadowed the Canadian NFP miss. AUD was also up sharply, with only EUR and Gold failing to perform and putting in a flat day. Bond yields climbed briefly above 2.9% again, the highest figure since Jay Powell took over at the Fed, and ended the day up 1bp. Oil also bounced strongly from the $60 roundpoint, adding $2 (3.3%) on the day, no doubt partly influenced by the first rig count since Jan 19th.

Please note all figures and percentages given for daily movement on indices cover the entire cash and futures period in that day.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

Reduced USD volatility this week, with AUD, GBP, NZD and JPY all posting inside weeks. Due to all the rate decision, the picture was very mixed with one trade clearly standing out. Buying AUDJPY would have netted 2.87%. Buying any index (except NIFTY) would have been good, the best being, unsurprisingly SPX at 3.36%. Incidentally that was the weakest US index, DJIA put on 3.58% and the NDX and RUT indices rose over 4%. Gold had a second flat week, and Oil was uncharacteristically quiet, although the small total move belies a range of 5.15% in the week.

Cryptocurrencies fell hard again following more negative comments from regulators, although the 16% drop in Bitcoin no longer surprises. Our prices are given as at 0000GMT Saturday, two hours after the other markets close.

AUDUSD 0.7846 (+1.83%)
EURGBP   0.8880 (-0.46%)
EURUSD 1.2303 (-0.11%)
GBPUSD 1.3849 (+0.36%)
NZDUSD 0.7279 (+0.54%)
USDCAD 1.2810 (-0.58%)
USDJPY 106.81 (+1.04%)
DAX       12376 (+3.13%)
FTSE       7237 (+1.51%)
NIFTY     10226 (-2.22%)
NKY       21874 (+3.27%)
SPX      2781.6 (+3.36%)
GOLD    1323.33 (+0.12%)
OIL       62.12 (+1.09%)
BTCUSD    9217 (-16.38%)
ETHUSD  724.56 (-15.21%)


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

Next week is a quieter week than the last few. Note that European traders enter the period we get twice a year where the US and Canada enter Daylight Savings Time two weeks earlier than Europe (and three weeks earlier than Australia and New Zealand leave it), and so all the US releases are an hour earlier for Europeans, and European markets open and close an hour later for US traders. The Fed is in blackout period prior to the rate decision on March 21st, so there are no Fed speakers this week.

Monday March 12
A quiet day with no important economic releases. There is a House election in Pennsylvania which is currently polled as too close to call, despite Trump winning the district by 20% in the presidential race. In Germany Angela Merkel will formally seal her SPD coalition pact prior to her fourth inauguration on Wednesday.

Tuesday March 13
We will have the result of the PA-18 election, and also the most important economic print of the week, the US CPI figure is released at 1230 (not 1330!). According to CME Fedwatch, a rate hike to 1.75% is 89% priced in. A miss here could substantially change that expectation, and move USD and bond yields sharply down. On the central bank calendar we have RBA Bullock at 0010 and Kent at 2210, BoC Poloz remarks released at 1415 (speech at 1430), and the BoJ MPC minutes at 2350. This last one is probably the most interesting, to see if the bank repeat Kuroda’s confirmation hearing remarks about ending stimulus in 2019. In the UK, the Spring Budget Statement (sometimes called the mini-Budget) is released in Parliament, although nothing much is expected.

Wednesday March 14
Several ECB speakers today: Coeure at 0730, President Death at 0800, Praet at 0845, Constancio at 1045, Villeroy at 1330 and Coeure again at 1615. All this follows the German inflation figure and so promises to be a volatile day for EUR. US Retail Sales are less important than usual, firstly because the release is MoM only, and secondly because the release is primarily viewed as a proxy for inflation, which of course has been reported the day before. Note that China Retail Sales are likely to be inflated by the New Year factor. Swedish CPI is released at 0830 (SEK is 4.2% of DXY).

Thursday March 15
Another quiet day, although the SNB Rate Decision is at 0830, a -0.75% hold is expected. In Europe we get the EU27 ambassadors approved text for the post-Brexit relationship and ECB Lautenschlaeger speaks at 1545, Swedish unemployment at 0830, and the NOK rate decision at 0900. RBA Debelle speaks at 2245. Hungarian markets are closed for National Holiday.

Friday March 16
Eurozone inflation is reported at 1000, but this is rarely a market mover, as the likelihood of surprise across an average of 27 countries (who have all already reported) is very low. Of more interest is US Options Expiry, which, together with positions for the Fed next week should produce some volatility in the US session.


CALENDAR (all times are GMT). High volatility items are in bold

Mon Mar 12
02:00 CNY China FDI
18:00 USD US Monthly Budget Statement

Tue Mar 13
00:30 AUD Australia Home Loans
11:30 GBP UK Budget Report
12:30 USD US CPI (est 2.1% prev 2.1%)
14:15 CAD BoC Governor Poloz Speech
20:30 WTI API Stock
22:10 AUD RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence
23:50 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
23:50 JPY Machinery Orders

Wed Mar 14
00:00 EUR Eurogroup meeting
02:00 CNY China Retail Sales (YoY)
02:00 CNY China Industrial Production (YoY)
04:30 JPY Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)
07:00 EUR Germany CPI (est 1.2% prev 1.2%)
08:00 EUR ECB Pres Draghi speaks
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
12:30 USD US Retail Sales MoM (est 0.4% prev 0.0%)
14:30 WTI API Stock
21:45 NZD NZ GDP
23:50 JPY Japan Foreign Stock/Bond investment

Thu Mar 15
00:00 EUR Eurozone EcoFin Meeting
00:00 AUD Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (CPI proxy)
00:30 AUD RBA Bulletin
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims
12:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
14:00 USD US NAHB Housing Market Index
21:30 NZD NZ Business PMI
22:45 AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech

Fri Mar 16
07:00 EUR Germany Wholesale Price Index
10:00 EUR Eurozone Labour cost
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI (est 1.2% prev 1.2%)
12:30 USD US Building Permits/Housing Starts
13:15 USD Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
17:00 WTI Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

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Sunday, 4 March 2018

Week to Mar 2nd


The upbeat mood in equities that finished last week continued on Monday, and all major indices were up with SPX up 1.2% on they day, and nearly 10% from the low on February 9 and only 3.3% away from the previous all-time high. DXY was flat on the day, with a slight gain (0.1%) by EUR as ECB President Draghi’s remarks at 1400 reversed an earlier slide matched by slight dollar gains against the other major currencies (including ZAR, which appears to have topped for now). Gold did not follow USD, and was up a shade. Oil was similarly slightly (0.7$%) up, and US 10-year bond yields also had a quiet day, down 1bp. All in all, consistent direction but only small moves.

Tuesday was new Fed Chair Powell’s first major outing, at the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, and some observers will say he is jinxed. You will remember that the market endured its biggest pullback in over two years on the day he took up office, and now on his first public outing, markets turned down again to start a week of decline, not helped by the German CPI miss at 1300, Trade Balance and Durable Goods misses at 1330, and the forward-looking House Price Index miss at 1400. All equity markets saw a Turnaround Tuesday and gave up Monday’s gains and then some. Powell largely stuck to agenda of his predecessor, but the market viewed it as slightly hawkish and bond prices (inverse to yields) and Gold were sharply down (to a two-week low) after his remarks. This consistency of Gold moving with rather than against indices shows that the interest rate roadmap (and therefore US dollar value) is the key driver to the price, rather than its traditional safe haven function. USD was of course up, with DXY posting a 0.62% gain, and advanced against all currencies. Oil was done in line with US strength, even before the API Miss at 2130.

The pattern from the previous day largely continued on Wednesday as Powell gave further testimony to the Senate.  Indices carried on fading, after misses on China PMIs (0100) Eurozone CPI (1000) and US GDP Price Index (1330)  and the dollar rose again. The German unemployment beat at 0855 was ignored. Today of course there was also the effect of month-end rebalancing. SPX was actually up two hours before the US closing bell, and then faded 42 handles (1.53%) into the close. DJIA lost 411 points in the same period.  Other indices followed suit after early gains. The decline was exacerbated by a sell-off in energy stocks, following Oil’s 1.3% pullback after the EIA Stock miss at 1530. As we have said previously, Oil has started to react again to this important news print, and we also saw a spike down in CAD. It is good to see islands of classic intermarket activity in this sea of sentiment.

USD was up across the board, although Gold was flat on the day. GBP fell particularly hard after a poor reaction to the EU’s draft Brexit treaty, and a warning from EU negotiator Barnier that a transition deal was far from certain. Gold was flat on the day after the hard fall in the previous session. Yields did not follow USD, and pulled back 4bp on the day.

The new month opened on Thursday with President Trump’s announcement a tariff on imported steel (25%) and aluminum (10%). Producer stocks in those industries soared. However these stocks are absent from DJIA and have low weights in SPX, but stocks of consumers in these metals are heavily represented. Boeing (BA) is 9.67% of the DJIA and fell sharply, a total of 9.69% by the low of the following day. The result was a decline in stocks across the board, with SPX and DJIA falling over 1%, the first time in two years that this has happened on three consecutive days. The ISM PMI beat at 1500 caused a brief but not insignificant (1%) rally in SPX, but this faded quickly as the tariff news spread. DAX, also troubled by four problems; the German coalition vote, the Italian election, a sharp rise in EUR, and the effect of tariff on its auto sector (14.55% by weight) fell by 2%, and FTSE and NKY followed the trend.

The dollar rally ran out of steam on the protectionist news, and the day saw the greenback down against all currencies, even CAD, the largest supplier of US imported steel and aluminum. After initially touching a six-week high, DXY shed 0.47%, and Gold was up in line. Yields fell sharply on the news, dipping briefly below 2.8% for the first time in nearly a month. Oil continued to fall on the EIA (and earlier API) stock miss.

The equity indices stabilised on Friday. After a further dip during the Asian and European sessions, SPX defensive and technology stocks led a recovery in the US session. This resulted in a 1.1% gain for the day in NDX, 0.5% on SPX, but a 0.3% loss on DJIA. Similarly FTSE and NKY eked out tiny gains, but DAX, weighed with additional problems (and a further rally in EUR) closed down 2.3%, after touching a six-month (and within 9 points of an 11-month) intraday low. Oil followed a similar pattern, declining earlier to rally into the US close, finishing 0.7% up. US Steel (X) gave up the previous day’s gains and gapped down at the open.

For once, the currency position was mixed, was traders absorbed the excitement of the week and the prospects for the weekend. EUR rallied again, to complete a V-shaped pattern and close flat for the week. JPY also rallied on BoJ suggestions that it could tighten monetary policy as early as next year. GBP continued to recover from the sharp drop on Wednesday. However Canada’s miss on GDP at 1330 and tariff fears kept the loonie in the red. AUD was also slightly down despite Gold adding a nugatory 0.4%. Yields were back up 6bp, erasing Thursday’s losses but finished roughly flat on the week.

Please note all figures and percentages given for daily movement on indices cover the entire cash and futures period in that day.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

A mixed USD picture this week, with JPY sharply up, and CAD sharply down on the steel and aluminium tariffs. The forex trade of the week would certainly have been to sell CADJPY to make 3.11%. (The last time a pair moved 3% in week was Oct 20th last year). Volatility returned to indices after last week’s calm, with DJIA posting a lot of 100-150 point hourly candles. All indices fell all week, but the biggest mover, and best overall trade was DAX which gave up 4.34% on Italian election uncertainty. Gold has ignored most of this recent volatility and finished almost flat.

Bitcoin had a good week, up 7.98% whereas Ethereum was much quieter, finishing almost flat. Since our cut-off, both currencies have rallied into the weekend.

AUDUSD 0.7705 (-1.67%)
EURGBP 0.8921 (+1.41%) 
EURUSD 1.2316 (+0.19%)
GBPUSD 1.3800 (-1.21%)
NZDUSD 0.7240 (-0.71%)
USDCAD 1.2885 (+2.03%)
USDJPY 105.71 (-1.08%)
DAX     12000 (-4.34%)
FTSE     7129 (-1.91%)
NIFTY   10458 (-0.31%)
NKY     21181 (-3.87%)
SPX    2691.2 (-2.05%)
GOLD  1321.77 (-0.52%)
OIL     61.45 (-3.33%)
BTCUSD  11023 (+8.68%)*
ETHUSD 854.51 (-0.87%)*

*Prices at 0000GMT Mar 3rd

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

Next week will initially be dominated by Sunday events in Europe, the Italian election (first exit polls at 2200), and the formation of a continuity coalition in Germany following the SPD vote. With four major rate decisions and NFP, next week should see the volatility unabated.

Monday sees the US International Trade Commission issue a decision on anti-dumping duty (tariff) on welded pipe imports. This affects Canada, China and India. Fed Quarles (voter, dovish) speaks at 18:15, but only on foreign bank regulation. The economic prints are all PMIs. All are well into growth (above 50), so only a large variation from estimate is likely to move markets. Australia is closed for Labor Day.

Tuesday sees the first of four rate decisions this week, conveniently spaced at one per day. The RBA are expected to keep rates on hold. AUD is under pressure at the moment, but any move may come on Gov Lowe’s speech which is 18 hours later (the next day, locally). Staying in that part of the world, the monthly NZ Milk Auction is today, and historically does affect NZD noticeably. We have a fractal for that. Fed member Dudley (centrist, voter) speaks at 1230, and Fed Governor Brainard (├╝ber-dove, voter) is on at 7pm Eastern (0000 Wed).

Remember this is NFP week, so Wednesday’s ADP ’sneak preview’ is always useful. Note that the new Canadian ADP report is not synchronised to be released two days before the official jobs report, so sadly we cannot plan a USDCAD position early. The estimate is 195k, close to the NFP estimate, so a large variation should have an effect. Also published at the same time are productivity and unit labor costs, part of the employment mix. Remember that four more rate hikes are said to be priced in, so a miss will have more effect than a beat. Today’s rate decision is from Canada. A hold is expected, but a rate hike is partially priced in for next month. CAD is of course under pressure because of the tariff announcements and NAFTA in general. Anything dovish could push CAD further down. Fed speakers today are Kaplan (dovish, non-voter) at 0130, Dudley and Bostic (both neutral voters) at 1300. Turkey, Poland and Malaysia also have rate decisions today.

Thursday’s key event is the ECB rate decision. As usual, the rate will are announced 45 minutes before the conference, and it is the latter where volatility usually occurs. Traders will be looking for an update on the long-term projections for Eurozone inflation (HICP), but further statements on unwinding will also be listened for. The BoC Deputy Governor Tim Lane’s speech is important as the first one after the rate decision. Otherwise the Trans-Pacific Partnership (excluding the US of course) FTA is due to be signed. Markets are closed in Russia.

Friday starts with the Japanese rate decision. It will be more interesting than usual after Governor Kuroda’s comments last Friday concerning an earlier exit from QE than expected. Maybe he will clarify further, and more JPY volatility than usual is possible

Otherwise the main event is, of course, the double NFP from the US and Canada. As in previous months, the AHE figure will be key, as an inflation indicator

The US NFP estimate is in line with previous months, but the Canada estimate at 68.5k is close to the record highs of December and January, and is equivalent to a US figure of 616k, population adjusted. If this beats, it must surely make an April rate hike a near certainty, and reverse CAD’s dismal record recently. There has also been talk about Canada being exempt from the new aluminum and steel tariffs as part of NAFTA, any firming up of this would also be a shot in the arm. Definitely one to watch. Also important in the Asian session is Chinese inflation. The Fed speaker roster is Rosengren (hawkish, non-voter) at 1740 and Evans (dovish, non-voter) at 1745. Finally as Oil seems to be responding to the API and EIA weekly stock reports, it is worth watching the response to the rig count.


CALENDAR (all times are GMT). High volatility items are in bold

Mon Mar 05
01:45 CNY Caixin China Services PMI
08:55 EUR Germany Markit PMI Composite
08:55 EUR Germany Markit Services PMI
09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit Services PMI
09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit PMI Composite
14:45 USD US Markit PMI Composite
14:45 USD US Markit Services PMI
15:00 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Tue Mar 06
00:01 GBP UK BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)
00:30 AUD Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision/Statement (1.5% hold est)
12:30 USD Fed Dudley speaks
14:00 NZD NZ GDT Milk (time approx)
15:00 USD US Factory Orders (MoM)
15:00 CAD Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
21:30 WTI API Stock
21:35 AUD RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speech
22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index

Wed Mar 07
00:30 AUD Australia GDP
01:30 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
05:00 JPY Japan Leading Economic Index
05:00 JPY Japan Coincident Index
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP (est 2.7% prev 2.7%)
13:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic speaks
13:00 USD Fed Dudley speaks
13:15 CAD Canada Housing Starts (Feb)
13:15 USD US ADP Employment Change
13:30 USD US Trade Balance
13:30 USD US Nonfarm Productivity/Unit Labor Costs
13:30 CAD Canada International Merchandise Trade
15:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision (1.25% hold est)
15:30 WTI EIA Stock
20:00 USD US Consumer Credit Change
23:50 JPY Japan FDI

Thu Mar 08
00:01 GBP UK RICS Housing Price Balance
00:30 AUD Australia Imports/Exports/Trade Balance
02:00 CNY China Imports/Exports/Trade Balance CNY and USD
05:00 JPY Japan Eco Watchers Survey
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision (0% hold est)
13:15 CAD Canada Housing Starts (Jan)
13:30 USD US Jobless Claims
13:30 EUR ECB Press conference
20:35 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Lane Speech
21:45 NZD NZ Electronic Card Retail Sales
23:30 JPY Japan CPI/Overall Household Spending (YoY)

Fri Mar 09
01:30 CNY China CPI/Producer Price Index
04:00 JPY BoJ Rate Decision/Press Conference (-0.1% hold est)
07:00 EUR Germany Imports/Exports/Trade Balance
07:00 EUR Germany Current Account
09:30 GBP UK Industrial/Manufacturing Production 
13:00 GBP UK NIESR GDP Estimate
13:30 USD NFP/AHE/AWH/Participation/Unemployment (est 190k prev 200k)
13:30 CAD NFP/Participation/Unemployment (est 68.5k prev -88k)
18:00 WTI Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

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