Week to Sep 24th

Brief dip on China Evergrande crisis, bonds and JPY underperform

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL CADJPY

LAST WEEK

The Chinese Evergrande crisis caused a weekend gap down (SPX 0.69%, NDX 1.73%) and equity markets spent the rest of the week filling the gap. This was helped by a slightly dovish take (vs expectations) on taper. The Fed offered no taper timetable, but a slight move up in the dot plot. Yields, which take a longer view, rallied on the latter. A sharp dip in EURUSD recovered the next day. An initial post-BoE rally in sterling quickly retracted. A strong oil-led loonie and weak equity recovery yen led to an overall flat dollar base for the week. Gold similarly had a flat week, and Oil rallied slightly towards the end of the week.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The biggest mover this week was FTSE again, up 1.26% after being down 0.93%. The top forex mover was CADJPY this week, up 1.64%. Bitcoin and ETH were down with the general risk-off. FANGs were generally flat as was NDX.

My second week buying EURNZD buy made another 0.32% taking my year to date profit to 7.52% and 27/37 wins. This week I will go with my reversal strategy and sell CADJPY.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

The final week of Q3 reports CPI from Germany and Eurozone, and US Personal Consumption Expenditure, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. Otherwise the week is largely PMI reports, and volatility is as likely to come from end of month and quarter repositioning as it is from scheduled news. Of more interest is the next stage in the Chinese Evergrande saga, where further payment deadlines arise next week. In politics, we have the German election on Sunday, with the replacement of titan Angela Merkel after 16 years, although the new Chancellor and indeed the coalition makeup will not be known for days or weeks. More immediately is Japan’s LDP leadership vote, with maverick vaccines minister Taro Kono fighting it out with traditional and bland Fumio Kishida. The first round, with two other (female) candidates is on Wednesday.

CALENDAR (High volatility items in bold)

Monday September 27

12:30 US Durable/ND Capital Goods (Core DG e0.5% p0.8%)

23:50 BoJ MPC Minutes

Tuesday September 28

00:30 Australia Retail Sales (e-2.4% p-2.7%)

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence

13:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices

14:00 US Consumer Confidence(Sep)

23:50 Japan Retail Sales

Wednesday September 29

09:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence/Business Climate

14:00 US Pending Home Sales

23:50 Japan Industrial Production

Thursday September 30

01:00 China PMIs (Mfr e50.2 p50.1)

06:00 UK Final Q2 GDP (e-1.5% p4.8%)

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate/Change

09:00 Eurozone CPI (Core p1.6%)

09:00 Eurozone Unemployment

12:00 Germany CPI (MoM e0.1% p0.9%))

12:30 US PCE QoQ

12:30 US Jobless Claims

12:30 US GDP Annualised (e6.6% p6.6%)

13:45 Chicago PMI

23:30 Japan Jobs/UnEmp

23:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (e13 p14)

Friday October 1 

00:30 Aus Building Permits

01:45 Caixin Manufacturing PMI(Sep)

06:00 Germany Retail Sales (MoM e1.5% p-5.1%)

07:55 Germany Markit Mfr PMI

08:30 UK Markit Mfr PMI

12:30 US PCE MoM & YoY

13:30 Canada Markit Mfr PMI

13:45 US Markit Mfr PMI

14:00 US ISM Mfr PMI (e59.9 p59.9)

14:00 Michigan CSI

Week to May 29th

Memorial Day 4-day week, Markets rise on lockdown, US-China sabre-rattling

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL EURAUD

Markets were buoyant this week as the lockdown release proceeded, despite Trump’s sabre-rattling with China over the resumed crackdown on Hong Kong, with a new security law, widely seen as removing the territory’s independence. There was a distinct rotation out of tech into companies seen to benefit from the reopening, which suggests a rare week where value stocks outperform momentum stocks.

However, USD continued to fall, presumably assessing the government cost of the lockdown, and notably, haven assets Gold, bonds and JPY did not pull back, ending the week flat.

Sell in May on did not really happen this year, and next week is a new month, traditionally also weak. The NFP estimate is already dire (as are Canadian and German jobs estimates). There is a lot of other data in the week. However, it seems the US-China war of words has started again, and this, along with coronavirus statistics will probably be the driving force. Watch out, though for any surprises from the ECB, and possibly Canada and Australia, all of whom have rate set meetings.

Mon May 25

With exchanges closed, futures markets in equities and Oil took their cue from the continuing end of the lockdown, and rose throughout the day. With London also closed there was very forex volatility and the dollar was flat, as was Gold. Bond markets are were closed, although bond futures were slightly up.

Tuesday May 26

Having effectively gapped up over the long weekend, the initial cash rallies faded, and markets were flat on the day. Chinese markets recovered on potential new stimulus from the PBoC, and there was a recovery in Hong Kong after the sharp politically-related falls last week. The dollar was generally down, but although JPY was up, the other haven assets Gold and bonds were not, and Oil continued to rally. 

Wednesday May 27

The US declaration that they no longer considered Hong Kong to be independent of China (and therefore sanctions and tariffs were applicable) was not, and caused a sharp fall after the US open, although markets recovered later with SPX closing 1.5% up. The riskier NDX was only 0.55% up, showing the mixed message.

The Eurozone pandemic plan was well received, and EUR was 0.32% in contrast to Brexit-troubled GBP down 0.56%. USD was generally down, with only JPY weaker. Bonds and Gold had a roller-coaster day, but ended roughly flat. Oil was sharply down. All in all, a mixed messages day where natural correlations failed.

Thursday May 28

Markets were down today as China enacted the Hong King security bill, but only at the end, leaving European indices in the green. The US GDP print was bad, at -5%, but no worse than expected. Again USD was down across the board. Gold and JPY were up, but bonds were slightly down. Gold and Oil rose on the weaker dollar.

Friday May 29

Markets fell all day on Friday, waiting to see if President Trump would restart the trade war. He held a press conference late in the day, and although he said he would eliminate special treatment for Hong Kong, crucially, he did not say he would pull out of the Phase 1 trade agreement. Markets shot up, to close up, on the day, especially for tech stocks. The dollar was still down, but JPY retreated sharply after the Trump announcement. Oil was up in line with equities, and so surprisingly were Gold and Bonds.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The biggest riser this week was NKY, up a very strong 7.3%. AUDJPY was the strongest pair up 2.16%. Cryptos were up slightly, and once again FANGS were variable, generally underperforming NDX

My call to sell EURJPY was my worst for weeks, the pair rose by 2.02%, wiping out nearly a third of accumulated profit. 17 weeks, 7 wins and a profit of 4.43%. This week I am selling EURAUD.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day. Recoveries in line were seen in most FANGs, but not NFLX, which has not really fallen like the others.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• New month
• NFP Week
• ECB/Aus/Canada rate decisions
• US-China tension

Monday June 1

New months sometime herald changes in sentiment. Today’s data is pretty much all manufacturing PMIs. All are expecting slight rebounds.

23:00 AUD Aus Commonwealth Bank Manuf PMI (Sunday)

01:00 AUD Aus TD Securities Inflation (YoY)(May)

01:45 CNY China Caixin Manuf PMI( May) (e49.6 p49.4)

07:55 EUR Germany Markit Manuf PMI(May)

08:30 GBP UK Markit Manuf PMI(May)

13:30 CAD Canada Markit Manuf PMI(May)

13:45 USD US Markit Manuf PMI(May)

14:00 USD ISM Manuf PMI(May) (42.5 p41.5)

Tuesday June 2

No European or US news today. Watch out for Hong Kong headlines, and also Brexit matters ahead of the Jun 18 EU Summit.

01:00 AUD Aus HIA New Home Sales (MoM)(Apr)

04:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)

14:30 NZD NZ GDT Milk Index (time approx.)

Wednesday June 3

The jobs prints from Germany and US (ADP) are the main events today, together of course with the Canadian rate decision.

01:10 AUD RBA Bullock speech

01:30 AUD Aus Q1 GDP (QoQ e-0.3% p0.5%)

01:45 CNY China Caixin Services PMI (May)

07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate/Change (Rate e200k p373k)

07:55 EUR Germany Markit PMI Composite( May)

08:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI (May)

09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Apr) (e8.2% p7.4%)

12:15 USD US ADP Employment Change(May) (e-9.5M p-20.2M)

13:45 USD US Markit Composite/Services PMIs

14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) (e43.0 p41.8)

14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)

14:30 WTI EIA Oil Stocks

Thursday June 4

The first ECB after the €750 billion COVID-19 support package should be interesting. Traders will be watching for further stimulus.

01:30 AUD Aus Imports/Exports/TB(Apr)

09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY)(Apr)

11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision/Statement (e0% hold)

12:30 USD US Initial Jobless Claims (May 29) (p2.6M)

12:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Presser

12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade(Apr)

18:00 CAD BoC's Gravelle speech

Friday June 5

The NFP estimate is enormous, but still half the figure from last month. Anything positive may well be seized on by bulls.

06:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)(Apr)

12:30 USD US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e-10M p-20.5M)

12:30 CAD Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e-4M, p-2M)

15:00 CAD Canada Ivey PMI

Week to May 22nd

Opening surge on vaccine hopes, Ranging all week, US-China tensions

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL EURJPY

The week started with a strong gap up ad surge on hopes of a potential COVID-19 vaccine from MRNA (whose stock gapped up 30%), and positive comments from Fed Chair Powell but failed to advance much further as poor data (including another new 2.5m Jobless Claims) and rising US-China tensions tempered enthusiasm.  However, Monday’s gains were not lost, and Gold and the yen fell, showing some degree of positive sentiment.

Monday is Memorial Day, and also a holiday in the UK shortening the final week of May which has been more flat than bearish this year. Earnings season is over,  and there isn’t much news other than another preliminary read of US GDP (QoQ est -5%). Look out for any further war of words between the US and China, and of course any COVID-19 second wave effect as many people exit lockdown.

Mon May 18

Markets gapped up hugely over the weekend on new of a potential COVID-19 vaccine from MRNA (whose stock gapped up 30%), and carried on rising all day after Fed Chair Powell told CBS 60 Minutes “there’s a lot more we can do to help the economy”. SPX closed at a two-month high. Oil rose sharply in line with equities. The haven trio bonds, gold and JPY were sharply down, the latter even against an otherwise falling dollar, following the dovish Fed remarks. A classic risk-on day. 

Tuesday May 19

Initially, markets held Monday’s gains as TreasSec Mnuchin confirmed the governments commitments to COVID-19 bailouts. However we had turnaround Tuesday into the US close, as some profit was taken. (Non-US indices were still up, as they close earlier). MRNA stock had been falling since the gap up. Gold and Bonds also reversed back up, although JPY continued to fall, again the only currency to do so, which can also be put down to forex being mainly traded in London hours.

Wednesday May 20

Markets were back up again today, although only matching Tuesday’s high, following positive Fed minutes indicating further support for the economy, which of course means printing more money, and the dollar was down again everywhere except GBP, following the UK inflation miss at 0600. The equity push was led by FB and AMZN which made new all-time highs. Oil was up in line. Oddly Gold and bonds continued upwards, the latter possibly on the new US 20-year bond auction

Thursday May 21

Pessimism started in Asia, with HSI down 3.4% on news of a new Chinese ‘national security’ law in Hong Kong, aimed at quelling protest, and Donald Trump claimed China was behind a disinformation and propaganda attack on the US. This was followed by another depressing Initial Jobless Claims report of 2.4 million, just one of many bad reports, for example New Home Sales hit a 10-year low. Markets were down everywhere. Oil ignored all this, and was up following the EIA stock report beat.

The dollar broke its three-day losing snap, and rose against all currencies (although it was practically flat against JPY). Bonds were flat as well, although Gold, reacting to the dollar reversal, was down 1.46%.

Friday May 22

US and European markets initially dipped on Friday but ended the day roughly flat going into the long weekend. By contrast the HSI was down 5.6%, its worst day in five years on China’s new laws. SecState Pompeo called the plans a “death knell” for autonomy in the territory, and this was reflected in Gold and bonds, both up. Oil also pulled back after gaining all week. USD was again up across the board, except for JPY which was flat, in line with the earlier dips.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

Indices had a strong week, although all the beginning, and the biggest riser was DAX. NZDJPY was the strongest performer up 3.31%. Crypto had a fairly flat week, and FANGs were rather variable swinging from a 5.48% loss on NFLX to a 11.4% gain on FB.

My choice last week of NZDCAD paid off, up 2.04%. 16 weeks, 7 wins, net profit 6.45%. I am still bearish about equity markets, so I will sell EURJPY this week, also considering the new EU pandemic plan, which will be expensive. (My other choice was to sell EURUSD, but you can never tell with USD when markets fall).

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day. Recoveries in line were seen in most FANGs, but not NFLX, which has not really fallen like the others.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Memorial Day 4-day week
• US and Canada GDP
• Expect more China tension
• End of month

Monday May 25

Markets are closed today in the US and the UK, so forex will be calm as well as equities, unless of course something happens in Asia. Ramadan ended this weekend, so there may be increased activity from Islamic countries. There are rate decisions in Romania and Israel.

06:00 EUR Germany Q1 Final GDP

08:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Sentiment

17:30 CAD BoC Governor Poloz speech

22:45 NZD NZ Imports/Exports/TB

Tuesday May 26

A quiet day on news, so COVID-19 and China will drive the markets. There is a rate decision in Hungary. Markets are closed in Indonesia.

06:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey

12:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index

13:00 USD US Housing/Home Price Indices

14:00 USD US New Home Sales/Consumer Confidence

14:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index

21:00 NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report

Wednesday May 27

The EU presents a continent-wide pandemic recovery plan today. Remember that most of Europe is borderless. The debate will be, as ever, whether richer countries should support poorer ones.

Here is a useful chart from Reuters showing the effect of COVID-19 policies on EURUSD, both from the Fed and ECB.

There is little scheduled news.

08:00 EUR EU Financial Stability Review

14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Thursday May 28

Today is the heaviest news day, with the 1230 batch of US data, the Jobless Claims being the most important. There are rate decisions in South Korea and Poland.

12:00 EUR Germany Prelim CPI (YoY e0.6% p0.8%)

12:30 USD US ND Capital Goods (p-0.8%)

12:30 USD US Prelim PCE QoQ

12:30 USD US Initial Jobless Claims (May 22) (e2.0M p2.4M)

12:30 USD US Q1 Prelim GDP (Annualised e-5.0% p-4.8%)

12:30 CAD Canada Current Account

14:00 USD US Pending Home Sales

15:00 USD US EIA Oil Stocks

23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (Core YoY e0.1% p-0.1%)

23:30 JPY Japan Jobs/Unemp

23:50 JPY Japan Industrial Production (p-5.2%)

Friday May 29

The last trading day of the month may bring volatility, especially as “Sell in May” does not appear to have happened this year. There are rate decisions in Colombia and Chile.

06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales

09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI (Core YoY e0.9% p0.9%)

12:30 USD US Prelim PCE (MoM and YoY)/Personal Income

12:30 CAD Canada Q1 Final GDP (Annualised p0.3%)

13:45 USD Chicago PMI

14:00 USD Michigan CSI

Week to Jan 3rd

New Year Week, China Good News, Iran Assassination

Mon Dec 30

After a strong rally for weeks, markets took a breather today, possibly banking year-end profits, as there was no specific news to cause the 0.70% pullback. The move was reflected in Gold and Bonds and JPY, all of which were up. The move was not as strong in other currencies, but all gained against the dollar. Oil was down in line with equity mood. With many markets closed thin trading may have exacerbated the moves.

Tuesday December 31

It was a quiet ending to the day, month, year and decade, with stocks quiet at first, and then making a strong rally into the close to erase yesterday’s losses and then some. Only FTSE failed to go green, following a strong 1.14% rally in GBP. The dollar continued to pull back and Gold and all major currencies advanced. Bonds were down in line with the equity move, but Oil fell again. This short day was all about positioning for end-of-year reporting, rather than any actual news moves.

Wednesday January 01

Markets were closed everywhere, although forex trades, which are not done on exchanges, continued , although as you would expect, volume and therefore volatility was very thin. A move up of 0.22% in CAD was the most any major made.

Thursday January 02

The China Phase 1 deal was augmented today by positive comments from China about it, and further negotiations made during the trading session. Coupled with some New Year positioning, carrying on the ramp on Tuesday afternoon meant all indices were up. Notably however, Gold, JPY and Bonds were also up, an indicator of possible things to come. The move in JPY was only 0.03% on another nearly flat forex day, where only CAD moved more than 0.1%. Oil was also down in a sign that the rally was fragile and done on low volume. It should be noted that four out of five manufacturing PMI reports today missed, only Germany beat estimates.

Friday January 03

The overnight US targeted strike on a top Iranian commander sent Asian and then European and US markets into a tailspin. As you might expect with anything Middle Eastern, oil soared in price, as did Gold, JPY and bonds. Otherwise the dollar was down across the board. A strong risk-off day, as you would expect.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The biggest index move on this quiet week was DAX, down 0.88%, and the strongest currency move was NZDJPY, down 1.77%. ETH made up some of the ground from last week, whereas BTC once again was flat. FANGs slightly outperformed NDX, in particular AAPL, which briefly touched $300 for the first time.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Non-Farm Payrolls
• Services PMIs
• Various CB speakers
• First full week of new decade

Monday January 6

Back to work for many traders, and volumes should increase with plenty of data this week. Last week was Manufacturing PMIs which were generally poor, and this week it is Services. Unusually, ECB Lane and BoC Wilkins speak over the weekend, but markets will generally be guided by the next step in the latest US-Iran bellicosity.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Services PMI (Dec)

07:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)

08:55 EUR Germany Markit PMI Composite (Dec)

09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit PMI Composite (Dec)

09:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI (Dec)

14:45 USD US Markit Services PMI (Dec)

14:45 USD US Markit PMI Composite (Dec)

Tuesday January 7

The ISM Services PMI is important today, following the miss in the Manufacturing print last week. Otherwise Eurozone inflation is the key release. 

10:00 EUR Eurozone Prelim CPI (Core YoY e1.3% p1.3%)

13:30 USD US Trade Balance (Nov)

13:30 CAD Canada International Merchandise Trade (Nov)

15:00 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) (e54.5 p53.9)

15:00 CAD Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index

15:30 NZD NZ GDT Milk Index (time approx)

Wednesday January 8

A quiet day on the news front as markets get back to normal. The ADP ‘preview’ of Friday’s jobs report has a similar estimate. There are rate decisions on PLN and RON.

07:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (Nov)

10:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate (Dec)

10:30 EUR Germany 10Y Bond Auction (time approx)

13:15 USD US ADP Employment Change (Dec) (e150k p67k)

Thursday January 9

Chinese inflation will definitely set the tone on this busy day, and we have our first Fed speakers of 2020. There is a rate decision on ILS

00:30 AUD Aus Imports/Exports/TB

01:30 CNY China CPI (p4.5%)

07:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance s.a. (Nov)

07:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Nov)

10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Nov)

13:00 USD Fed Clarida speech

13:15 CAD Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Dec)

13:30 USD US Jobless Claims

16:30 USD Fed Williams speech

19:00 CAD BoC Governor Poloz speech

19:10 EUR German Buba President Weidmann speech

Friday January 10

The first jobs print of 2020, and the estimate is climbing back to the 180-200k mean. Canada reports simultaneously so the scope for a big USDCAD move is there, especially if it first moved strongly on Thursday’s BoC speech.

00:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Nov)

13:30 USD US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e160k p266k)

13:30 CAD Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e20k p-71.2k)

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits, TradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.

Week to Nov 29th

Thanksgiving 3.5 day week, China move sparks three-day rally, Election whipsaw GBP

Mon Nov 25

The Friday recovery continued into Monday, helped by a booming HSI index after Beijing strengthened intellectual property rights in China (also a key point in the trade talks). Equities rallied everywhere. Sterling was also up on a new poll which gave the incumbent Conservative party a stronger lead. Markets don’t like PM Johnson’s Brexit, but they dislike left-winger Corbyn’s agenda a lot more. Otherwise USD was up elsewhere against currencies and Gold. Only NZD outperformed (slightly). Oil was up in line with equities. Yields however were down despite the stronger USD and SPX.

Tuesday November 26

President Trump again said both sides are close on the deal today, and together with some good retail earnings and the Home Prices beat, markets carried on upwards (except DAX, which was flat, despite the German confidence survey beat). The dollar had a Turnaround Tuesday and pulled back generally against currencies and Gold. However GBP also turned round as yet another poll showed the Labour Party had improved, and JPY was of course down, along with Gold and Bonds (and Oil was up) in line with the risk-on mood.

Wednesday November 27

Beats on the GDP, Durable/Capital Goods and Jobless Claims at 1330 gave the market a third straight day of gains. The reports also pushed the dollar up against all currencies and Gold, except sterling, which was back up sharply on yet another poll. Oil fell slightly as did Bonds.

Thursday, November 28*

US Markets were closed today for Thanksgiving. Other markets (and US futures) took a small breather today and pulled back slightly, led by DAX which came off after the German CPI miss at 1300. The dollar was similar quiet, generally flat across the board, with only JPY moving more than 0.1%. Oil and Gold were also flat, and the bond market was closed.

Friday, November 29

US Markets were only open for a half-day and again trading was quiet although the general trend was down, overshadowed by the new Trump Hong Kong monitoring bill. It was a bit livelier in Europe with DAX initially falling, then climbing sharply on the German Unemployment (0855) and European inflation (1000) beats, only to collapse again in the US session, along with FTSE which was weakened by more GBP strength, as markets became confident about a Conservative victory on Dec 12. Oil was sharply down at the end in line with the markets, but possibly end-of-month rebalancing.

In currencies, the chart above appears to show a sudden (probably end of month) spike down for the dollar at the end of the day, but this is within the context of very small moves. Again only JPY managed more than 0.1%. Notably, EURUSD had the flattest week ever since its inception in 1999, moving only 0.38% in the whole week.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
All indices were up this week, with risk-on NDX winning. Last week’s best short was this week’s best long, GBPJPY put on 1.50%. Cryptos recovered slightly after last week’s big losses, and FANG shares outperformed NDX as they do in risk-on markets. 

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Non-Farm Payrolls
• Aus and Canada rate decisions
• Lots of PMI data
• New month

Monday December 2

The new month, and the Santa Rally season opens with no less than six manufacturing PMIs, the US ISM one being the most likely to move markets.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Manuf PMI (Nov) (e51.4 p51.7)

08:55 EUR Germany Markit Manuf PMI (Nov)

09:30 GBP UK Markit Manuf PMI (Nov)

14:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde speech

14:30 CAD Canada Markit Manuf PMI (Nov)

14:45 USD US Markit Manuf PMI (Nov)

15:00 USD US ISM Manuf PMI (e49.4 p48.3)

Tuesday December 3

No significant news today in the US or Europe, so unless we get a breakthrough in the trade talks, expect little change to the trend. The consensus on the RBA is that rhetoric will remain dovish, so risks are to the upside on AUD which has been falling for weeks.

03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision/Statement (0.75% hold)

14:30 NZD NZ GDT Milk Index

17:30 EUR ECB De Guindos speech

Wednesday December 4

Today is the turn of Services/Composite PMIs, with six reports. The ‘sneak preview’ ADP jobs report estimate is only 138k, considerably lower than the NFP estimate, which is unusual. Like AUD, the loonie has also been falling since the beginning of November, and anything hawkish from the BoC may result in a move to the upside. There is also a rate decision in Poland today.

00:30 AUD Australia 19Q3 Final GDP (QOQ e0.5% p0.5%)

01:45 CNY China Caixin Services PMI (Nov)

08:55 EUR Germany Markit Composite PMI (Nov)

09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Nov)

09:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI (Nov)

13:15 USD US ADP Employment Change (Nov)

14:45 USD US Markit Services/Composite PMI (Nov)

15:00 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (e54.5 p54.7)

15:00 USD Fed Quarles speech

15:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e1.75% hold)

16:15 CAD BoC Press Conference

Thursday December 5

Attention turns to the Oil market today with the OPEC meeting. An extension of existing production cuts is expected, however some commentators are expecting more, especially in light of the Saudi Aramco float, which has underwhelmed so far. Markets are closed in Spain for Constitution Day.

00:30 AUD Aus Imports/Exports/Trade Balance

00:30 AUD Aus Retail Sales

07:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders

10:00 WTI OPEC Meeting

10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

10:00 EUR Eurozone 19Q3 GDP (YoY e1.2% p1.2%)

13:00 CAD BoC Lane Speech

13:30 USD US Trade Balance (Oct)

13:30 USD US Jobless Claims

13:30 CAD Canada International Merchandise Trade

15:00 USD Fed Quarles speech

15:00 CAD Canada Ivey PMI

Friday December 6

The November jobs report will, as always been keenly watched. This month the Canadian report is simultaneous so expect USDCAD volatility, especially if CAD has moved sharply after the rate decision on Wednesday.

05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index (Oct) Prel

07:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production

09:00 WTI OPEC Meeting

13:30 USD US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e183k p128k)

13:30 CAD Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e15.9k p-1.8k)

15:00 USD US Michigan CSI (e96.5 p96.8)

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