Monday, 12 October 2015

EURJPY Pitchfork Trade

Another post from my course, this time on EURJPY. Most people are bullish, but I am more bullish with a pitchfork hypothesis. I am replying to a post from 5 days ago.

To add to this debate, with the benefit of 5 days more candles, after some careful pivot touching, I have a chart with three tops, three bottom, and three centre line touches. I think EURJPY is in an Andrews Pitchfork formation as follows

which leads to a target above 138.00, perhaps to the August 21st high of 139.00. Obviously, there is also conventional support/resistance to consider, Support can be taken as the last (spiked) high at 135.75 (red line), and resistance at 137.44 from Sep 17th. Of course if I really believe in the pitchfork, whose channel line stands, as I write at 136.27, then even 136.10 would be an adequate stop-loss.
I will play safe. I will enter trades as follows
2 contracts : entry 1.3657, stop loss 1.3575, take profit 1.3744 (safe), RR 82:87, say 1:1
1 contract   : entry 1.3657, stop loss 1.3610, take profit 1.3900 (risky), RR 47:243, say 5:1
The safe contract doesn't need a pitchfork hypothesis, it is simply rising to the next resistance. The risky contract does, which is why I have included the pitchfork line in the stop. This is very important, if I believe the pair will go to 1.39, I must logically believe in the higher stop.
If the safe contract completes correctly (profitably), I have made 82 x 2 = 164 pips, comfortably more than the 47 pips lost if the risky contract fails.

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