Sunday, 25 October 2020

Week to Oct 23rd

Earnings/CB speakers disregarded, Uncertainty consolidation with slight downside bias
MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL GBPJPY


Uncertainty about COVID, stimulus and the election meant another week of consolidation, with a bias to the downside. Nothing changed this week, with equity and Oil markets declining slightly (as we said they would last week, being near the top of the consolidation level). The dollar reversed last week’s move, as it did the week before.


Next week is the last full week before the election, and when any potential bombshell might be thrown in. However, due to COVID, postal voting has been greatly expanded and many Americans have already voted. It seems certain that the stimulus package will be decided after the election, in a zombie Congress that runs until year end.


  • Earnings have little effect
  • CB speakers also disregarded
  • Uncertainty consolidation continues
  • Slight downside bias




Mon Oct 19

The continuing rise in COVID cases, lack of progress on stimulus matters, and election uncertainty all led to a sharp fall in equity and Oil markets today. The dollar also fell (although mainly against GBP and EUR only). Yields inched up slightly, despite the equity and dollar moves. Gold was flat on the day. IBM missed on earnings (EPS $1.89 vs $2.58), and fell 4.5% after hours.



Tue Oct 20

Equity markets and Oil recovered slightly today, although without much enthusiasm as the same factors weighted. The dollar fell again, particularly against CAD, which followed the oil trend, again pushing Gold up. Bonds fell in line with the trend. NFLX missed on earnings ($1.74 vs $2.14 EPS) after the bell and fell 5% after hours.



Wednesday October 21

Some slight progress on stimulus talks was not enough for stocks and Oil, which slid further today. The dollar was down again, with Gold up in line. Bonds continued to ignore the rest of the market smoothly sliding all week. TSLA beat on revenue and EPS, and rose 4.55% AH (but lost it all on Thursday).



Thursday October 22

Equities again staged a recovery today, a little bit stronger this time cancelling Wednesday’s drop (but no more). Oil moved up in line, but not to the same extent. The issues moving the market remained the same. The dollar also reversed back up, again to Tuesday night’s level, and notably Gold fell sharply this time, suggesting a more risk-on mood. Yields climbed again, to 0.863%, the highest level since June, helping bank stocks which were up over 3%. KO beat on earnings, and rose 2.36% pre-market, but lost some of that during the day.



Friday October 23 

Thursday’s equity rally continued today, but with little enthusiasm as the indices whipsawed throughout the day, and notably Oil fell a dollar (2.2%). The dollar fell again (except against Brexit-troubled GBP, meaning FTSE was the best performer). Gold was pulled two ways, and ended more or less flat, in an inside week for the metal. Yields (inverse to bond prices) pulled back slightly from Thursday’s high. INTC missed on earnings ($1.02 vs $1.11). There was a severe reaction, the stock opened 10.3% lower on Friday.



WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

DAX was the biggest index faller at 2.04%, probably because EURUSD was the biggest mover up at 1.24%. Crypto moved sharply up with double-digit rises after months in the doldrums, possibly as a risk-off asset. FANGs were much more volatile than the underlying NDX, with a large move up by FB and down by NFLX.







Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)


  • Eurozone, Japan, Canada rate decisions
  • Four FAANG giants report simultaneously
  • Aus, Eurozone, Germany, Japan inflation
  • Last week before election



Monday October 26

Note European countries Daylight Savings Time ends, but does not change in North America until next week. Hence US markets will open earlier for Europeans, and later vice-versa. A hugely important week, the last full week before the election, but with a quiet start, and probably dominated by election news. Markets are closed in Hong Kong, New Zealand and Austria.


00:30 Aus Imports/Exports/TB

08:00 Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators

12:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

14:00 US New Home Sales

23:30 RBA's Bullock speech



Tuesday October 27 

The week’s action starts after the bell with NDX giants MSFT and AMD reporting, in this busy earnings week.


12:30 US Durable/ND Capital Goods (ND e0.5% p1.9%)

13:00 Housing/Home Price Indices

14:00 US Consumer Confidence



Wednesday October 28 

Dow heavyweights BA (pre-market) and V (after close) report today. The main news in the day is the Canadian rate decision and statement. There is also a rate decision in Brazil.  Markets are closed in Greece, Dubai, Turkey (half day) and Czechia.


00:30 RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ e0.3% p-0.1%)

14:00 BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)

15:15 BoC Press Conference

22:00 Fed's Kaplan speech

23:50 Japan Retail Sales



Thursday October 29 

The crescendo of earnings season comes after the bell today, with AAPL, AMZN, FB and GOOGL (35.4% of NDX) all reporting. And this in addition to Japanese and Eurozone rate decisions, and the first reading of US GDP for Q3, which will show the degree of bounce back in the economy. Markets are closed in many Islamic countries for Mawlid (Birthday of the Prophet)


03:00 BoJ Rate Decision/Statement (e-0.1% hold)

06:00 BoJ Press Conference

08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate/Change

10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence/Business Climate

12:30 US Jobless Claims(Oct 16)

12:30 US Prelim Q3 GDP (e30.8% p-31.4%)

12:45 ECB Rate Decision/Statement (e0.0% hold)

13:00 Germany CPI (YoY e-0.4% p-0.4%)

13:30 ECB President Lagarde Presser

14:00 US Pending Home Sales

23:30 Tokyo CPI

23:50 Japan Industrial Production

23:50 Japan Jobs/Unemployment



Friday October 30 

All the important news is from Europe today, with Eurozone inflation, GDP and unemployment simultaneously at 1000. This is the last day of the Europe/US time disconnect.


07:00 Germany Retail Sales (YoY e4.2% p3.7%)

07:00 Germany GDP

10:00 Eurozone CPI (Core YoY e0.5% p0.2%)

10:00 Eurozone GDP (e9.0% p-11.8%)

12:30 US PCE (MoM and YoY)

12:30 Canada GDP MoM

13:45 Chicago PMI

14:00 Michigan CSI

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