Week to Dec 27th

Christmas Week, Santa Rally continues, Dollar weakens

Mon Dec 23

The Santa Rally continued today and indices were generally up, despite the Capital Goods miss at 1330. In forex, gold and most currencies were up against USD, the exception being GBP which continued last week’s fade as traders remember than a fast Brexit is not necessarily a good Brexit. Oil and yields were up in line with the equity mood.

Tuesday December 24

The half-day before Christmas had no news, and the sentiment in indices and Oil continued. Forex hardly moved at all, the largest shift being a 0.14% slip in CAD. However there was a little trimming of risk with Gold adding $15 and a pullback in yields.

Wednesday December 25

All major world markets except Japan are closed for Christmas Day. NKY rose slightly and JPY fell.

Thursday December 26

Another indices rally as the US reopened, although Europe was closed for Boxing Day. In thin trading, there was a notable move up in Gold and Oil, and their proxy commodity currencies AUD and CAD. Yields slipped slightly.

Friday December 27

Another very light day due to the holidays. Markets rallied again at first today but then took a breather and pulled back to close roughly flat. Gold and Oil also paused their rallies. There was a notable move down in USD, with DXY fading over 0.5%, although this cannot be attributed to any news, more likely the move was amplified by the reduced volume. Yields fell again, this time in line with the equity pause.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The best index, as is often the case in risk-on times was NDX, and the best forex pair was NZDJPY. Cryptos were flat despite not being tied to exchange holidays. It was AAPL and AMZN’s turn to shine this week from the FANG set.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• New Year Week
• Thin Trading again
• Triggers for sentiment switch
• Key US PMI

Monday December 30

Markets are closed today in Australia and Russia, and Germany closes early. Thin trading means the news may generate outsized moves.

07:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales

14:45 USD Chicago PMI

15:00 USD US Pending Home Sales

Tuesday December 31

Markets are closed in Australia, Russia, Japan and Germany, and Switzerland and Spain have a half-day.

The final day of the month, quarter and year together with the thin trading, and the traditional seasonal sentiment may produce outsized volatility.

01:00 CNY China Caixin Manuf PMI (e51.7 p51.8)

14:00 USD US Housing/Home Price Indices

15:00 USD US Consumer Confidence

Wednesday January 01

Markets are closed everywhere today for the New Year holiday. Even Japan. The Aussie PMI is of course issued on Jan 2, local time.

22:00 AUD Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI

Thursday January 02

A new calendar year (and quarter) which may presage a change in sentiment. Sensitive data today in the form a raft of manufacturing PMIs which have been under pressure recently, and the Fed minutes of their last meeting.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Manuf PMI

08:55 EUR Germany Markit Manuf PMI

09:30 GBP UK Markit Manuf PMI

13:30 USD US Jobless Claims

14:30 CAD Canada Markit Manuf PMI

14:45 USD US Markit Manuf PMI

19:00 USD FOMC Minutes

Friday January 03

Note that despite this being the first Friday of the month, Non-Farm Payrolls are actually next week (10th). Today’s news is the most important of the week, particularly the ISM PMI. A return above 50 would be very bullish for markets.

08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate/Change

13:00 EUR Germany Prelim YoY CPI (p1.2%)

15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (e49 p48.1)

18:15 CAD BoC Wilkins speech

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits, TradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.

Week to Dec 20th

Phase 1 China Deal, Santa Rally begins, GBP fades election spike

Mon Dec 16

The Friday ‘Phase 1’ trade deal inevitably gave a boost to indices, with FTSE outperforming, to join the FTSE250 after the euphoria of GBP last week came off. In currencies it was a mixed picture. Despite the poor German and Eurozone PMIs, EUR still rose, as did CAD following Oil. Gold was slightly up, and bonds were down in line with the equity move.

Tuesday December 17

A much flatter day on equities saw a slight rise in the US and Japan, but FTSE and particularly DAX fading as UK election euphoria cooled. In currencies, DXY was up mainly because GBP largely gave up its post election gains, falling 1.13% in addition to Monday’s 0.48% drop. Otherwise it was mixed with haven trio Gold, JPY and bonds slightly up, as was EUR and CAD following Oil, which had a good day.

Wednesday December 18

DAX continued to fall today, on concerns about the fallout for Europe on an accelerated Brexit, promised by UK PM Johnson, although other indices managed very slight advances. FTSE itself was slightly up as GBP continued to fall for the same reason, as did EUR. Nevertheless commodity currencies followed Oil up and haven trio Gold, Bonds and JPY were down, showing the market was still seasonally bullish.

Thursday, December 19

A mixed picture today as different forces moved indices. The US indices were quiet in futures, and then all rallied to new all-time highs in the cash sessions. DAX fell 80pts to hit a bottom before picking up US momentum to close flat, and FTSE climbed gently but only really in response to a further fade in sterling. The dollar had a flat day overall, with EUR hardly moving, but a 40 pip recovery in JPY after a series of misses in US data balancing the GBP slide. Oil followed stocks, but CAD was flat, as were yields. Gold surprisingly rallied all day, following the data misses but not the equity positive momentum.

Friday, December 20

The last day before the Christmas week coincided with quadruple witching day (the day, week, month and significantly, the quarter which is the expiration of index futures contracts). US indices rose sharply when the session opened, following earlier spikes up in the NKY and DAX opens, helped by GDP figures at 1330 and the Michigan CSI beat at 1500. Only FTSE was muted, affected by a further decline in GBP on the UK government’s decision to leave the EU on 31 Dec 2020, whether any agreement is in place or not. DXY followed SPX in a clear up day, pushing Gold and all currencies except AUD down. Oil moved sharply down, but this was a function of OpEx backwardation, the February contract having been traded about 60c lower. Yields were flat on the day.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

A complete reversal of last week’s sterling euphoria meant shorting GBPAUD would have been the best trade. The falling pound inevitably pushed FTSE to pole position on index performance. Although BTC was flat, ETH moved down sharply, and a creditable performance from FB was outshone by a double-digit advance in NFLX.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

Monday December 23

This is the Christmas week, the quietest week of the year. Only today are there any meaningful released. Australian markets are closed.

04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (Oct)

05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index (Oct)

13:30 USD US ND Capital Goods (MoM e-0.3% p1.1%)

13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Nov)

13:30 CAD Canada GDP MoM

15:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM)

23:50 JPY BoJ MPC Minutes

Tuesday December 24

Many markets are closed for a half-day including the US, and some, such as Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Portugal are closed all day. There are no important news releases.

Wednesday December 25

All major world markets except Japan are closed for Christmas Day.

Thursday December 26

Many markets, although not the US, are closed for Boxing Day. News is again light. The ‘core’ Santa Rally in US stocks is supposed to start today. There is a rate decision on EGP.

00:00 JPY BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech

13:30 USD Jobless Claims

23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI YoY (e0.6% p0.6%)

Friday December 27

Still light, with many traders taking the full week as holiday.

09:00 EUR Economic Bulletin

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits, TradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.

Week to Dec 13th

UK Conservative landslide, UK assets sharply up, Phase 1 China deal announced

Mon Dec 09

Concerns about the Dec 15 tariffs, and an inevitable pullback from Friday’s NFP ramp meant indices were down today, with haven assets bonds, JPY and Gold up, although the latter’s move was slight. The dollar was down in line with the risk-off mood, and all currencies were up except for the antipodean duo. Oil was flat on the day.

Tuesday December 10

A sudden decline (to 3120 support, the pre-NFP level) at the US open on trade concerns was alleviated by a WSJ report around 1530 that the Dec 15 tariffs could be delayed irrespective of the Phase 1 deal being completed. Nevertheless indices were slightly down on the day, although only DAX and FTSE were materially down, on currency strength. GBP fell sharply at the very end of the day after indices had closed, on yet another election poll.

DXY was down again, although this was mainly on Euro strength. CAD managed a slight advance, but other currencies slid. Gold tracked the equity dip, and finished up, in line with equities. However bonds and JPY were down reflecting the recovery.

Wednesday December 11

Today the Fed left rates unchanged as expected, The statement was interpreted by traders as dovish, and SPX rose, and the dollar fell after the release. All currencies rose against the dollar, with the move much more muted against JPY as you would expect. Gold and bonds were up, reflecting the weaker dollar rather than the equity position. Oil was down sharply on the EIA miss at 1530, although it recovered somewhat by the close.

Thursday December 12

A big day, with two events that moved markets. Carefully timed just after the opening bell, President Trump tweeted that a “BIG DEAL” [on China] was very close. The reaction was immediate and classic, Indices all shot up, and the haven trio collapsed. Oil and the dollar also rose in line, and the session ended with the dollar up across the board except for AUD.

However, the unexpectedly strong result for the British incumbent Conservative party, after many years of small majorities/hung parliaments, GBP shot up 3% (4c) in a matter of minutes, and EUR rallied 0.61% in sympathy. This had the effect of DXY moving from +0.44% to -0.52% in short order. There was also a boost to indices but this appeared the next day.

Friday December 13

The UK feel-good rally carried through the European session, but pulled back when the US opened, New York being more concerned about nothing concrete appearing to back up Trump’s tweet. Confirmation came finally towards the end of the session, confirming that a Phase 1 deal with China had been agreed, which caused an end-of-day boost and the US indices closed flat, a example of the highly logical but rare ‘buy the rumor, fade, then recover to the rumour level on the news’. European indices did better and closed up on the UK result.

Inevitably a 3% move creates an overbought situation, and GBP gave back about a third of its election euphoria gains, and EUR all of the, meaning a strong day for DXY across the board. The early failure of US indices meant JPY, Gold and Bonds were all positive on the day. Oil was up after choppy moves during the day.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

A strong week depressed JPY and so NKY was the strongest index, although FTSE expressed in USD would have risen 3.09%. Unsurprisingly therefore GBPJPY was the strongest pair, adding 2.21%. Bitcoin and Ether slept for a second week, and there was some notable reversion to value mean, as high PE FANGs fell, and moderate ones rose.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Phase 1 China Deal
• Six major/minor rate decisions
• Six inflation or proxy reports
• Lots of GDP and PMI as well

Monday December 16

There was little reaction on Friday to the Phase 1 China deal announcement, and delay in the December tariffs, so there may be a boost today. On the other hand, there is also the next stage of impeachment. Meantime today is PMI day, the key one being whether Germany has indeed turned a corner.

02:00 CNY NBS Press Conference

02:00 CNY Industrial Production/Retail Sales

08:30 EUR Germany Markit Manuf PMI (e44.5 p44.1)

09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (e50.9 p50.6)

09:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI (e49.6 p49.3)

14:45 USD US Markit PMIs

17:00 GBP UK Bank Stress Test Results

Tuesday December 17

Next to look for in the indeterminate calendar is the USMCA, which may be ratified in the House this week, but Senate confirmation will not come until January.

Fed Kaplan, Rosengren and Williams speak today.  There is a rate decision on HUF.

00:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

09:30 GBP UK Claimant Count/UnEmp/AHE (UnEmp e3.9% p 3.8%)

13:30 USD US Housing Starts/Building Permits

14:15 USD US Industrial Production

14:30 NZD GDT Milk Index (time approx)

17:30 USD Fed Rosengren speech

23:50 JPY Japan Imports/Exports/Trade Balance

Wednesday December 18

If Monday was PMIs, today is inflation with three CPIs and German PPI. Fed Brainard and Evans speak today. There are rate decisions on CZK and THB.

07:00 EUR Germany PPI

08:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde speech

09:00 EUR Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators

09:30 GBP UK CPI (YoY e1.5% p1.5%)

10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI

10:15 USD Fed Brainard speech

13:30 CAD Canada CPI (Core YoY e1.9% p1.9%)

21:45 NZD NZ 19Q3 Final GDP (QoQ e0.4% p0.5%)

Thursday, December 19

And today is rate decisions. As well as majors JPY and GBP, there are also decisions on minors SEK, NOK and MXN, and elsewhere IDR and TWD. Holds are expected on all. The Jan 20 Oil contract CLF20 expires today.

00:30 AUD Aus Jobs/UnEmp (Jobs e14k p-19k)

03:00 JPY BoJ Rate Decision/Statement (e-0.1% hold)

06:00 JPY BoJ Press Conference

09:30 GBP UK Retail Sales

12:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision/Statement (e0.75% hold)

13:30 USD Philly Fed Manuf Survey

13:30 USD US Jobless Claims

15:00 USD US Existing Home Sales

23:30 JPY Japan National CPI

Friday, December 20

The final day before Christmas week, when many traders finish, and perhaps want to position themselves for the ‘core’ Santa Rally (the Christmas-New Year gap) is also OpEx day, so expect heightened volatility. There is also a rate decision on COP.

01:30 CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision (e4.15% hold)

07:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jan)

09:30 GBP UK 19Q3 Final GDP (QoQ e0.3% p0.3%)

11:00 GBP BoE Haskel speech

13:30 USD US PCE (QoQ)

13:30 USD US 19Q3 Final GDP (QoQ e2.1% p2.1%)

13:30 CAD Canada Retail Sales (MoM e0.1% p-0.1%)

15:00 USD US Core PCE (MoM and YoY)

15:00 USD US Michigan CSI

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits, TradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.

Week to Dec 6th

Tariffs vs data - V-shaped week,  Blowout NFP,  Sterling rallies on election hopes

Mon Dec 2

He did it again today. President Trump reimposed tariffs on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina, probably in reaction to their weakening currencies, which together with the important ISM PMI miss art 1500 sent SPX down 0.8%, its worst day in six weeks. Other indices followed suit. In liner, the dollar was down against Gold and all currencies except CAD, after Canada’s PMI also missed. Yields were surprisingly slightly up, as was Oil, although the latter was to be expected after Friday’s sharp fall.

Tuesday December 3

Markets tumbled further today on President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on France, in retaliation for their digital services ‘Google’ tax, and more worryingly that a China trade deal might not be concluded until the end of 2020. Only DAX, which had fallen more sharply on Monday, made a slight recovery. The reaction in Gold Up (1%)and Bonds (yields down 15bp) came today, both sharply up, the former by over 1%. Oil had a flat day. AUD rallied further after the RBA hold.

Wednesday December 4

Despite the South American and France actions, reports that Washington and Beijing are closer to agreeing Phase 1 tariff reduction lifted markets. Also PMI beats in China and Europe helped other markets, and all indices were up. The dollar had a third down day against other currencies, with the exception of Gold and JPY, which were down in line with the equity move. Oil was up sharply, rising 4% on the EIA stock beat, which helped CAD, also strongly up (0.75%) following a hawkish BoC report with their rate hold. Yields recovered somewhat after Tuesday’s 15bp drop.

Thursday December 5

After the wild moves in earlier days, markets were much quieter today, with the US nearly flat. A fourth day of dollar decline, and therefore EUR and GBP strength weighed on DAX and FTSE, which were both red, after German Factory Orders (0700) and Eurozone Retail Sales (1000) both missed. Gold and Oil were flat, and yields were up, but still not back at Monday’s level.

Friday December 6

The NFP blowout of 266k vs 183k, especially after the ADP miss at 67k on Wednesday, coupled with a rare beat on AHE (3.1% vs 3.0%) was welcomed by markets which shot up. There was not even any pullback between the print and the opening bell, in fact only a little profit-taking at the end.

It was the same story in other markets, and finally we had a green day in USD. Gold fell sharply reversing its Tuesday move. Yields shot up in line with the dollar and bond-stock rotation. As we signalled last week, the sharp positive move in CAD on Wednesday was almost exactly cancelled after the Canadian jobs report missed. The only oddity was JPY, which after a brief spike down on the NFP print, climbed again and ended the day up.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

A V-shaped week produced a surprisingly muted weekly performance with only FTSE moving more than 1%. It was down 1.45% on GBP strength, the second best performing currency. The top mover was NZDUSD up 2.22%. Cryptos went back to sleep, and FANGs were a mixed bag, with AMZN’s drop and GOOGL’s rise being the biggest moves.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• US and EU rate decisions
• UK General Election
• US and China inflation
• Tariff deadline

Monday December 9

Over the weekend Chinese trade balance figures are published, and of course we enter yet another week waiting for US-China trade progress, in particular to delay the next set of tariffs due on December 15th. Remember of course CNBC Jim Cramer’s comment that as long as the market stays up, there is less pressure on Trump to conclude the deal.

23:50 JPY Japan 19Q3 Final GDP (e0.2% p0.1%)

07:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance

22:05 AUD RBA Governor Lowe speech

Tuesday December 10

The Chinese inflation print is the big news today. Also at some point this week President Trump is expected to sign a Phase 1 (excluding autos) deal with Japan. Also two members of the WTO appellate panel retire today, meaning decisions will remain in limbo until new appointments.

00:30 AUD Aus Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook

01:30 CNY China CPI (YoY e4.2% p3.8%)

02:45 AUD RBA Bullock speech

09:30 GBP UK Manuf/Industrial Production

09:30 GBP UK GBP MoM

10:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (e0.0 p-2.1)

13:30 USD US Non-farm Productivity/Unit Labor Costs

23:30 AUD Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence

Wednesday December 11

A big day today, the last rate decision of the year, which is universally (99.3% probability) expected to be a rate hold. There is the important CPI print before the open, and a rate decision on BRL.

13:30 USD US CPI (Core YoY e2.3% p0.2%)

19:00 USD US Monthly Budget Statement

19:00 USD Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e1.75% hold)

19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference

Thursday December 12

The first rate decision meeting under new President Lagarde is due today, as well as other European news with German inflation and a Swiss rate decision. There are also rate decisions on PHP, TRY and PEN.

00:00 AUD Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations (Dec)

00:30 AUD RBA Bulletin

07:00 EUR Germany CPI YoY (e1.2% p1.2%)

08:30 CHF SNB Rate Decision/Statement (e-0.75% hold)

10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production

12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision/Statement (e0.0% hold)

13:30 EUR ECB Lagarde Presser

13:30 USD US PPI

13:30 USD US Jobless Claims

17:45 CAD BoC Governor Poloz speech

21:30 NZD Business NZ PMI

22:00 GBP UK Election exit polls

22:00 NZD NZ Westpac Consumer Survey

23:50 JPY Japan Tankan Manufacturing Index/Outlook

Friday December 13

A quiet day today, where markets will still be reacting to the US and European rate decision statements. There is a rate decision on RUB.

04:30 JPY Japan Industrial Production

13:30 USD US Retail Sales (Control Group Mom e0.4% p0.3%)

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits, TradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.

Week to Nov 29th

Thanksgiving 3.5 day week, China move sparks three-day rally, Election whipsaw GBP

Mon Nov 25

The Friday recovery continued into Monday, helped by a booming HSI index after Beijing strengthened intellectual property rights in China (also a key point in the trade talks). Equities rallied everywhere. Sterling was also up on a new poll which gave the incumbent Conservative party a stronger lead. Markets don’t like PM Johnson’s Brexit, but they dislike left-winger Corbyn’s agenda a lot more. Otherwise USD was up elsewhere against currencies and Gold. Only NZD outperformed (slightly). Oil was up in line with equities. Yields however were down despite the stronger USD and SPX.

Tuesday November 26

President Trump again said both sides are close on the deal today, and together with some good retail earnings and the Home Prices beat, markets carried on upwards (except DAX, which was flat, despite the German confidence survey beat). The dollar had a Turnaround Tuesday and pulled back generally against currencies and Gold. However GBP also turned round as yet another poll showed the Labour Party had improved, and JPY was of course down, along with Gold and Bonds (and Oil was up) in line with the risk-on mood.

Wednesday November 27

Beats on the GDP, Durable/Capital Goods and Jobless Claims at 1330 gave the market a third straight day of gains. The reports also pushed the dollar up against all currencies and Gold, except sterling, which was back up sharply on yet another poll. Oil fell slightly as did Bonds.

Thursday, November 28*

US Markets were closed today for Thanksgiving. Other markets (and US futures) took a small breather today and pulled back slightly, led by DAX which came off after the German CPI miss at 1300. The dollar was similar quiet, generally flat across the board, with only JPY moving more than 0.1%. Oil and Gold were also flat, and the bond market was closed.

Friday, November 29

US Markets were only open for a half-day and again trading was quiet although the general trend was down, overshadowed by the new Trump Hong Kong monitoring bill. It was a bit livelier in Europe with DAX initially falling, then climbing sharply on the German Unemployment (0855) and European inflation (1000) beats, only to collapse again in the US session, along with FTSE which was weakened by more GBP strength, as markets became confident about a Conservative victory on Dec 12. Oil was sharply down at the end in line with the markets, but possibly end-of-month rebalancing.

In currencies, the chart above appears to show a sudden (probably end of month) spike down for the dollar at the end of the day, but this is within the context of very small moves. Again only JPY managed more than 0.1%. Notably, EURUSD had the flattest week ever since its inception in 1999, moving only 0.38% in the whole week.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
All indices were up this week, with risk-on NDX winning. Last week’s best short was this week’s best long, GBPJPY put on 1.50%. Cryptos recovered slightly after last week’s big losses, and FANG shares outperformed NDX as they do in risk-on markets. 

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Non-Farm Payrolls
• Aus and Canada rate decisions
• Lots of PMI data
• New month

Monday December 2

The new month, and the Santa Rally season opens with no less than six manufacturing PMIs, the US ISM one being the most likely to move markets.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Manuf PMI (Nov) (e51.4 p51.7)

08:55 EUR Germany Markit Manuf PMI (Nov)

09:30 GBP UK Markit Manuf PMI (Nov)

14:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde speech

14:30 CAD Canada Markit Manuf PMI (Nov)

14:45 USD US Markit Manuf PMI (Nov)

15:00 USD US ISM Manuf PMI (e49.4 p48.3)

Tuesday December 3

No significant news today in the US or Europe, so unless we get a breakthrough in the trade talks, expect little change to the trend. The consensus on the RBA is that rhetoric will remain dovish, so risks are to the upside on AUD which has been falling for weeks.

03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision/Statement (0.75% hold)

14:30 NZD NZ GDT Milk Index

17:30 EUR ECB De Guindos speech

Wednesday December 4

Today is the turn of Services/Composite PMIs, with six reports. The ‘sneak preview’ ADP jobs report estimate is only 138k, considerably lower than the NFP estimate, which is unusual. Like AUD, the loonie has also been falling since the beginning of November, and anything hawkish from the BoC may result in a move to the upside. There is also a rate decision in Poland today.

00:30 AUD Australia 19Q3 Final GDP (QOQ e0.5% p0.5%)

01:45 CNY China Caixin Services PMI (Nov)

08:55 EUR Germany Markit Composite PMI (Nov)

09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Nov)

09:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI (Nov)

13:15 USD US ADP Employment Change (Nov)

14:45 USD US Markit Services/Composite PMI (Nov)

15:00 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (e54.5 p54.7)

15:00 USD Fed Quarles speech

15:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e1.75% hold)

16:15 CAD BoC Press Conference

Thursday December 5

Attention turns to the Oil market today with the OPEC meeting. An extension of existing production cuts is expected, however some commentators are expecting more, especially in light of the Saudi Aramco float, which has underwhelmed so far. Markets are closed in Spain for Constitution Day.

00:30 AUD Aus Imports/Exports/Trade Balance

00:30 AUD Aus Retail Sales

07:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders

10:00 WTI OPEC Meeting

10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

10:00 EUR Eurozone 19Q3 GDP (YoY e1.2% p1.2%)

13:00 CAD BoC Lane Speech

13:30 USD US Trade Balance (Oct)

13:30 USD US Jobless Claims

13:30 CAD Canada International Merchandise Trade

15:00 USD Fed Quarles speech

15:00 CAD Canada Ivey PMI

Friday December 6

The November jobs report will, as always been keenly watched. This month the Canadian report is simultaneous so expect USDCAD volatility, especially if CAD has moved sharply after the rate decision on Wednesday.

05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index (Oct) Prel

07:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production

09:00 WTI OPEC Meeting

13:30 USD US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e183k p128k)

13:30 CAD Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e15.9k p-1.8k)

15:00 USD US Michigan CSI (e96.5 p96.8)

his report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits, TradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.

Week to Nov 22nd

Trade war flare-up, New all-time highs briefly, Sterling election fears

Mon Nov 18

In the absence of news today, equities drifted. SPX closed flat. Other indices were slightly up except DAX. The dollar fell against most currencies and Gold, but only GBP showed any serious move up, on election hopes. Only AUD and NZD were down. Oil and yields also fell.

Tuesday November 19

Poor earnings from HD set the tone for a disappointing day. After briefly touching a new ATH, SPX (and NKY) fell. So did NDX but it still managed to close green. The stronger dollar helped European indices to post nugatory gains. It was also Turnaround Tuesday for DXY, although this was only from GBP and CAD pulling back. EUR was flat, and JPY actually rose, along with Gold and Bonds, (and Oil fell), all in line with the equity pullback. AUD and NZD once again were contrary, both rising sharply after the hawkish RBA minutes and the GDT milk beat.

Wednesday November 20

The US passed a bill today to  annually re-examine Hong Kong’s special status, infuriating Beijing. President Trump also threatened to increase China tariffs if the US is unable make a deal. Naturally the markets didn’t like it, but interestingly, when they were expecting positive news, they got a negative, yet after an initial spike down, There was however, some relief from the Fed minutes (SPX only came off down 0.38% on the day. NDX fared a little worse at -0.62%. Foreign indices also fell. The dollar was up generally (except with EUR which held its own to remain flat). Oil was up after the EIA beat, and Gold was flat. Yields were down in line with the equity pullback.

Thursday November 21

The sentiment from Wednesday continued today at first although there was some recovery into the close. The Philly Fed Manufacturing survey beat was tempered by misses in Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales. The dollar was virtually flat, with small CAD advance, following Oil, and pullbacks elsewhere (including Gold). Yields were slightly down.

Friday November 22

Indices were directionless until all three US Market PMIs beat at 1445, as did the Michigan Sentiment print 15 minutes later. Non-US indices followed suit, although less markedly. The dollar was much stronger and broke out of the range it had been holding all week, mainly due to sharp moves down in EUR (after their Markit PMIs miss) and GBP (as polls show PM Johnson’s election lead narrowing). Other currencies and Gold were only slightly down, as was Oil and yields.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
Biggest index mover in this quieter week was NKY, down 0.82%. Currencies were also muted, with a GBPJPY short the best trade. Cryptos started moving again, to the downside, with big losses in both BTC and ETH. FANGS were very mixed, with a notable strong performance from NFLX.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Thanksgiving 3.5 day week
• Trade war still rumbles on
• US and Canada GDP
• Final Powell speech before blackout

Monday November 25

China has apparently invited US officials to Beijing again, but it seems the US is looking for further concessions first. All this could generate market-moving trade news at any point, and of course, a Presidential tweet or two. There is a rate decision on ILS (15bp cut expected).

09:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Sentiment

12:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index

23:50 AUD RBA Debelle speech

Tuesday November 26

Chair Powell’s speech at 7pm EDT in RI is the last before the blackout prior to the Dec 11 FOMC rate decision. A few smaller retailers report earnings today.

00:00 USD Fed Chair Powell speech

07:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Dec)

09:05 AUD RBA Governor Lowe speech

14:00 USD US Home Price Indices

15:00 USD US Consumer Confidence

18:00 USD Fed Brainard speech

20:00 NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report

21:45 NZD NZ Imports/Exports/Trade Balance

Wednesday November 27

A whole raft of economic releases at 1330 before the final full day of this week should make for busy trading and volatility.

13:30 USD US PCE/Personal Income

13:30 USD US Prelim 19Q3 GDP (e1.9% p1.9%)

13:30 USD US Jobless Claims (Nov 22)

13:30 USD US ND Capital Goods (e-0.2% p-0.6%)

15:00 USD US Pending Home Sales

19:00 USD Fed Beige Book

23:50 JPY Japan Retail Sales

Thursday, November 28

US Markets are closed today for Thanksgiving. All other world markets are open, as of course are US futures. German CPI is the main print of the day.

10:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate

13:00 EUR Germany Prelim CPI YoY (e1.3% p0.9%)

13:30 CAD Canada Current Account (Q3)

22:00 NZD ANZ - Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI YoY (e0.6% p0.5%)

23:30 JPY Japan Jobs/Unemployment

Friday, November 29

US markets are only open for a half-day today (until 1pm EDT 6pm GMT). Note the very bullish estimate for the final Canadian Q3 GDP print. There is a rate decision on KRW. Markets are closed all day in Romania (not Scotland!) today for St Andrews day.

08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate/Change

10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI YoY (Core e1.2% p1.1%)

10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate

13:30 CAD Canada Final 19Q3 GDP (e5.4% p3.7%)

14:45 USD Chicago PMI

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits, TradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.

Week to Nov 15th

RBNZ surprise hold, Powell rules out more cuts for now, Trade war ups and downs

Mon Nov 11

US markets were closed for Veteran’s Day, but US futures fell in sympathy with China and Hong Kong after another weekend of protests, which are now reported as seriously affecting HK business. Also depressing the market were President Trump’s weekend comments pouring cold water on early tariff removal rumors, and the effect of retail money coming out of Asian and other markets to spend on Singles Day in China. In currencies, USD was down against most currencies, although AUD was down and CAD finished flat. Gold and JPY were down, the first quite sharply, suggesting the weekend concerns were short lived. Oil rose and yields fell in line with equities (ie bonds were up)

Tuesday November 12

Turnaround Tuesday saw equities rally today as the US returned and the weekend was forgotten. Surprisingly Gold, JPY and bonds were also up. Otherwise it was a clean sweep for USD, up across the board against currencies. Oil was up in line with equities. An interesting feature of today was that DJIA closed absolutely flat, at 27691, the same figure as Monday. This has not happened for over five years.

Wednesday November 13

Today, President Trump threatened to raise China tariffs if no truce was reached, and the market took that badly, and pulled back, although it made some recovery after the European close, and NDX even finished green. It was a very flat day in currencies, the notable exception being NZD which was up 1.24% on a surprise hold from the RBNZ (a 25bp cut had been expected).

Thursday November 14

In Chair Powells second day of testimony, he indicated that the 75bp cuts this year were enough for now, and this was enough to depress markets slightly in the US and a bit more severely elsewhere as DXY fell on the testimony not being hawkish enough. DAX, FTSE etc fall when their denominated currency rises. Most currencies and Gold rose. Only the antipodean pair faded, AUD on the severe jobs miss (-91k vs +15k) and NZD pulling back after the sharp Wednesday rise. Oil and yields were down in line with equities.

Friday November 15

On Thursday night White House adviser Kudrow said about the China deal that “we are coming down to the short strokes” and today CommerceSec Ross confirmed that the China “Phase One” deal would be made “in all likelihood”. US markets broke out of the weekly range and soared to new highs. The effect was seen in NKY but not in the European indices, but this was largely due to a further leg down in USD after the poor Retail Sales figures. Gold and JPY were of course down, but all other currencies rose, as did Oil in line with the risk-on day.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The top index this week was the DJIA up 1.17% to break the psychological 28000. The top forex trade would have been, unusually, shorting AUDNZD, yielding 1.91%. Another quiet week on cryptos, and FANGs generally outperformed the NDX as a whole, as often happens in strongly risk-on periods.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

Monday November 18

Sometime this week, the final USMCA (NAFTA 2) bill could be ratified. Fed Mester (hawk, non-voter) speaks today. There are no significant economic releases

09:00 EUR ECB De Guindos speech

13:05 EUR ECB Lane speech

22:05 AUD RBA Kent speech

Tuesday November 19

The House Intelligence Committee impeachment hearings continue today, but our opinion is that this will not affect markets, as everyone knows a House indictment will result in a Senate acquittal. Fed Williams (voter) speaks today. The final DJIA component HD reports before the bell, as do department store KSS. There is a rate decision on HUF (hold expected)

00:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

13:30 USD US Building Permits/Housing Starts

14:30 NZD NZ GDT Milk Index

18:15 CAD BoC Wilkins speech

23:50 JPY Japan Imports/Exports/TB

Wednesday November 20

The minutes of the 30 October rate cut meeting may well show that 75bp is 'enough' which would be bearish for stocks and bullish for USD, although this is probably priced in from Chair Powell’s testimony last week.

HD competitor LOW reports before the bell, as does general retailer TGT. ECB Lane speaks again today at 1700. Markets are closed in Brazil and Mexico.

01:30 CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision (e4.2% hold)

07:00 EUR Germany PPI

13:30 CAD Canada CPI (BoC Core YoY e1.9% unchanged)

19:00 USD FOMC Minutes

Thursday November 21

Fed Mester and ECB De Guindos speak again today, as does Fed Kashkari (dove, non-voter) and ECB Mersch. There are rate decisions on ZAR and IDR (holds expected)

09:30 GBP UK PSBR

12:30 EUR ECB MPC Minutes

13:30 USD Philly Fed Manuf Survey

13:30 USD US Jobless Claims

15:00 USD Existing Home Sales

23:30 JPY Japan National CPI

Friday November 22

Christine Lagarde gives her first important speech today, the keynote to the Frankfurt European Banking Congress. She has spoken before, but this venue will expect some insight into her thoughts on the euro. Markets are closed in Japan for their Thanksgiving.

07:00 EUR Germany 19Q3 final GDP

08:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde speech

08:30 EUR Germany Markit PMIs (Manuf e43.0 p42.1)

09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit PMIs (Composite e50.9 p50.6)

13:00 EUR ECB Weidmann speech

13:30 CAD Canada Retail Sales MoM Sep (e0.0% p-0.1%)

14:45 USD US Markit PMIs

15:00 USD Michigan CSI

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits, TradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.