Sunday 26 May 2019

Week to May 24th

Google/Huawei trade war intensification, USD hits two-year high, UK PM May resigns

Mon May 20
The trade dispute decline carried on today, as Google announced the termination of Android operating system supply to Huawei. SPX was down 0.7% and NDX shedded double that. A similar story was seen in DAX, FTSE and NKY. Australian and Indian markets were up sharply, in both cases following the surprise Conservative election wins.

The dollar, however, was flat against most currencies and Gold, with only AUD making a sharp move up. Oil and Bonds (inverse to yields) were slightly down.

Tuesday May 21
A moderate Turnaround Tuesday on equities saw most indices recover their Monday losses, triggered by a a three-month reprieve for Huawei.

The dollar was up again, but only by 0.1%. Most currencies were sluggish, but GBP spiked sharply on news that PM May was offering a second Brexit referendum to MPs, if they would vote for her deal. It quickly retreated when it was clear they would not. Similarly AUD gave up all its election gains in short order after the RBA Minutes and Governor’s speech. Gold was down in line with equity reversal, and Oil and Bonds declined slightly again.

Wednesday May 22
Tuesday’s rally was short-lived and stocks continued their trade war inspired downward path again today, with all markets giving up ground. For once the effect was strongest in the US, with only slight moves down in Europe.

DXY added 0.1% against most currencies to briefly touch a two-year high of 98.37.  Brexit-troubled GBP was notably down, but balanced by an appreciation in safe haven JPY. Bonds were also up in line, although Gold was flat. Oil followed equities down after the EIA miss at 1430. The FOMC minutes offered no surprises and markets hardly moved at the 1900 release.

Thursday May 23
Maybe the failure of the Fed to give rate cut encouragement, or just technical downward momentum, but today saw a sharper fall in equities, with SPX down 1.2% and NDX 1.6%. The mood was the same in Europe and Japan, with all indices registering declines of over 1%. The further decline of the German Manufacturing PMI to a new low of 44.3 at 0730 did not help. A clear risk-off mood saw Bonds, Gold and JPY sharply up, with 10-year yields up 8.1bp on the day, and a near 5% drop in Oil.

There was a sharp turn up in EUR, after it briefly hit a two-year low, following the ECB MPC Minutes  are 1230, and disappointing US Market PMIs, but as the move was seen across most currencies, it was probably a reaction to the previous day’s DXY high. All currencies were up (GBP barely so), and DXY lost 0.24%.

Friday May 24
Friday saw the resignation of UK PM May, and both GBP and FTSE rose. Markets may hate Brexit, but they hate uncertainty more (although the strong UK Retail Sales beat at 0830 may have helped)

The key US print of the day, Durable Goods/Non-Defence Capital Goods at 1230 missed, but SPX also rose. But overall markets recovered less than half of Thursday’s fade so it was probably only a technical move into the long Memorial Day weekend. Oil’s move was similar.

The dollar continued to retreat from its high, with DXY down 0.25% and all currencies up, and a particularly strong AUD, which returned to Monday’s election high. Gold and yields were flat.

The standout equity performer was the Indian NIFTY after the surprise BJP (Modi) win. Otherwise the biggest mover would have been risk barometer NDX. For the fourth week in a row, GBPJPY was the biggest mover, although only down 0.74% this week. Cryptos continued their advance, with BTC closing about $8000 for the first time since July 2018. As last week, AAPL underperformed the other FANGs.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)
  • Four day week
  • Plenty of CB speakers
  • Currency manipulation report due
  • Canada in focus

Monday May 27
Markets in the US and UK are closed today, for Memorial Day and Spring Bank Holiday respectively. KHC report earnings. The results of the European Parliamentary Elections will be announced, with a large UK vote (largely seen as a ‘second Brexit referendum proxy’) expected to go to the Brexit Party, but by how much may affect markets. President Trump is in Japan today and tomorrow.

11:45 EUR ECB Lautenschläger speech (Sunday)
03:00 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda speech
05:00 JPY Japan Leading Economic Index

Tuesday May 28
The US Commerce department ‘currency manipulation’ study is due to be published today. There is a rate decision on HUF.

05:45 CHF Switzerland 19Q1 GDP
06:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate
13:00 USD US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)
14:00 USD US Consumer Confidence
20:00 NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report

Wednesday May 29
The BoC is expected to hold, although unlike the US, the risks are to the hawkish side, although Canadian data has been poor of late.

00:00 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda speech
01:00 NZD RBNZ Governor Orr speech
01:00 AUD Aus HIA New Home Sales (time approx)
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate/Change
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e1.75% hold)
22:45 NZD NZ Building Permits s.a. (MoM)

Thursday May 30
Markets are closed today in Germany and much of Europe (although not the UK) for Ascension Day. US VP Pence meets with Canadian PM Trudeau to discuss USMCA ratification in the Canadian parliament. There are rate decisions on KRW, TRY and COP.

01:30 AUD Aus Building Permits (MoM)
12:30 CAD Canada Current Account
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims
12:30 USD US 19Q1 GDP/PCE QoQ (prelim)(GDP e3.1% p3.2%)
14:00 USD US Pending Home Sales
15:00 WTI EIA Oil Stock
16:00 USD Fed Vice Chair Clarida speech
18:15 CAD BoC Wilkins speech
21:30 WTI API Oil Stock
23:01 GBP UK GfK Consumer Confidence
23:30 JPY Japan Jobs/Applicants, Unemployment
23:50 JPY Tokyo CPI (e1.2% p1.3%)
23:50 JPY Japan Industrial Production (YoY)
23:50 JPY Japan Retail Sales

Friday May 31
The final day of the month may see some rebalancing volatility. The Canadian GDP print is final, not preliminary. There is a rate decision on BGN.

01:00 CNY China NBS PMIs
06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales (MoM)
08:30 GBP UK Consumer Credit/Mortgage Approvals
12:00 EUR Germany CPI (e1.5% p2.1%)
12:30 USD Personal Spending/PCE YoY & MoM
12:30 CAD Canada GDP (QoQ e1.2% p0.4%)
13:45 USD Chicago PMI
14:00 USD Michigan CSI (e100.00 p102.4)

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Sunday 19 May 2019

Week to May 17th

Tariff collapse and recovery, Best Michigan CS for 15 years, Crypto rally continues

Mon May 13
Friday’s imposition of China tariffs, no trade war resolution in sight, and China’s tit-for-tat tariffs on $60Bn of goods really hit home today, with SPX giving up 2.4%, and the risk sensitive NDX down 3.4%, the worst day since January 3rd. At 2811.9, the index closed at 4.8% below the new high made two weeks ago. Other indices followed the US, as they usually do. The flat (DXY +0.03%) dollar as usual reflected risk-off, with JPY (and Gold and Bonds) up, and other currencies down. Oil had rallied in Asia/Europe, but was sharply sold off in the US, in line with the mood.

Tuesday May 14
Some reassuring tweets from the President halted the slide and we had a Turnaround Tuesday in equities, Oil, JPY, Gold and bonds. Trump said the deal would “all happen, and much faster than people think!”. The recovery was weak, clawing back less than half the Monday slide. DXY was firmer today, adding 0.17% with all currencies except CAD sliding, the latter helped by Oil.

Wednesday May 15
Today’s Presidential tweet was confirming a delay in European auto tariffs. As you would expect DAX, which had been sliding, soared, as did US indices. Similar effects were seen in NKY and FTSE. SPX had fallen 0.7% following the Retail Sales miss at 1230, and rose 1.5% after the tweet. The dollar was quiet, with only a 0.04% rise in DXY it nevertheless gained against every currency and Gold. Nevertheless bond markets were not convinced and yields were down again.

Thursday May 16
Another up day for SPX to make a three days streak, recovering Monday’s losses and going green for the week, considerably so in the case of DAX. USD continued to advance, with DXY posting a fourth day up by 0.28%. All currencies, Gold, and bonds (inverse to yields) fell, and Oil advanced, in line with the risk-on mood.

Friday May 17
After recovering the Monday losses on Thursday, stocks turned done after negative reports on the China talks. TSLA fell 7.6% on another fatal autopilot crash. There was a spike up on the best Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading (102.4 vs 97.2 est) for 15 years at 1400, but this faded towards the close, although the correlating drop in Gold held. USD had a fifth green day, with DXY adding 0.19%, up across the board, except for CAD which shot up on reports that the US was considering lifting USMCA tariffs.

The FTSE was the top-performing index this week almost exactly matching the pullback in GBP (ie expressed in dollars, it hardly moved). With the dollar up everywhere, cable rather than GBPJPY took the top spot for movement. Shorting the pair would have gained you 2.14%. Cryptos had an even stronger week than last week, with ETH posting its best week on 2019. FANGs were fairly quiet, except for AAPL which fell sharply.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • FOMC Minutes and Powell speech
  • UK inflation
  • German Manufacturing PMI
  • Final DJIA component HD reports

Monday May 20
Another quiet Monday on data. At some point, probably this week, the US will release its currency manipulation report. There is a rate decision on ILS. Markets are closed in Canada, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Sri Lanka.

23:50 JPY Japan GDP (QoQ e0.0% p0.5%)(Sunday)
06:00 EUR Germany PPI
12:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index 
16:30 GBP BoE Broadbent speech
17:05 USD Fed Clarida speech
23:00 USD Fed Chair Powell speech

Tuesday May 21
Most of the news is Antipodean today. DJIA component HD reports before the bell, which will keep the focus on retailers, who typically report later than other sectors. There is a rate decision on NGN. Markets are closed in Chile for Navy Day.

01:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
02:15 AUD RBA Governor Lowe speech
14:00 USD US Existing Home Sales (MoM)
14:00 NZD GDT Milk Index
16:00 USD Fed Rosengren speech
21:30 WTI API Oil Stock
22:45 NZD NZ Retail Sales (QoQ e0.0% p1.7%) 
23:50 JPY Japan Imports/Exports/TB

Wednesday May 22
The main news day of the week, with the Fed April minutes. Traders will be again looking for signs of cuts, or some softening. There is a rate decision on ISK. Markets are closed again in Malaysia.

01:30 JPY BoJ Harada speech
05:00 USD Fed Bullard speech
08:30 GBP UK CPI (Core YoY e2.2% p1.9%)
12:30 CAD Canada Retail Sales (MoM Mar e0.4% p0.8%)
14:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock
18:00 USD FOMC Minutes

Thursday May 23
The most important news today is whether German Manufacturing has turned a corner, as per the estimate, or slid further. The European Parliamentary elections start today, until Sunday. There is a rate decision on ZAR (6.75% hold expected), and EGP. Markets are closed in Jamaica.

06:00 EUR Germany GDP
07:30 EUR Germany Markit PMIs (Manuf e45 p44.4)
08:00 EUR Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators
08:00 EUR Eurozone Markit PMIs (Composite e51.8 p51.5)
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims
13:45 USD US Markit PMIs
14:00 USD US New Home Sales (MoM)
22:45 NZD NZ Imports/Exports/TB
23:30 JPY Japan National CPI

Friday May 24
US Durable Goods/Capital Goods are the main print of the day. There are elections in Belgium and Spain this weekend, and we go into a long Memorial Day weekend. (The UK is also closed on Monday. Markets are closed today in Bulgaria and Bermuda (did you know they had an exchange?)

04:30 JPY Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM)
08:30 GBP UK Retail Sales
12:30 USD Durable Goods/ND Capital Goods (NDCG Apr e0.1% p1.0%)

This report is published every week as an email by - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.

Sunday 12 May 2019

Week to May 10th

Trump tweet cast shadow on the week, Trade Talks still unresolve, AUD, NZD brief spikes only

Mon May 06
President Trump tweeted at weekend to confirm that he would be implementing China tariffs on Friday, and although this was the default condition, the confirmation caused SPX to gap down 1.5%, touching 2.2% by the middle of the Asian session, although this reversed when the US opened and the primary index closed down 0.5% on the day. It was a similar story with world indices. The dollar only moved very slightly (DXY -0.08%). Most currencies were up but the basket loss was trimmed by a GBP fade, as no progress appears to be being made on Brexit. Gold was down, surprisingly, and Oil was up 2%. Yields were roughly flat in line with the dollar.

Tuesday May 07
Equity markets slid further today on trade war fears, with SPX down 1.7% and the risk-sensitive NDX down 2%. DJIA posted its worst day since Jan 3. The risk-off assets (bonds, JPY and Gold) all rose, but with risk currencies falling, the net effect on DXY was a rare totally flat day. AUD spiked up 40 pips when the RBA did not cut rates, as a minority of commentators expected, but this was short-lived. Oil’s volatility continued, giving up most of Monday’s gains.

Wednesday May 08
There was some worry that Chinese vice-premier Liu may not even attend the latest talks after the Trump tweet, but it was confirmed they would go ahead tomorrow and Friday. Markets paused, and SPX ended flat, and NKY continued to slide. However, DAX and FTSE were up. We may have been seeing a rotation into (cheaper) European equities.

It was third flat day for the dollar (DXY+0.04%), again a GBP slide was covered by slight appreciation in EUR and JPY (EUR had not moved out of a 35 pip range since Monday). NZD plunged 1.2% in thin trading as the RBNZ cut rates, but quickly recovered to its opening level a few hours later. A later fade ended the Kiwi 0.4% down on the day. Both Gold and Bonds rallied then collapsed quickly to end the day lower, despite there being no obvious triggers. Oil was up slightly.

Thursday May 09
A fourth day of trade gloom was only slightly mitigated by President Trump saying he had received a “beautiful letter” from his counterpart in China, moving SPX from a low of 1.5% to ‘only’ 0.3% down at the close. Other indices followed suit. DXY finally made a noticeable move, down 0.17%, largely due to a sharp move in EURUSD which shot up 0.5% in 30 minutes as the US opened. There was no European news to prompt this, so it may have been a rotation into EUR similar to the equity rotation we mentioned yesterday. Most currencies (and Gold) were up, although AUD only managed to end flat. Oil was down in line with stocks.

Friday May 10
Despite the trade talks failing [to produce an agreement], positive remarks from US TreasSec Mnuchin and Vice-Premier Liu produced an end-of-week rally which put indices into positive territory, but still posting the worst week of 2019. USD paid little attention to the CPI miss at 1230, the only notable move was a big surge in CAD which added 100 pips (0.75%) on the Canadian NFP beat. DXY was down 0.1% on the day, with very slight appreciation across the board (including Gold and Oil). Yields were fairly flat.

All indices fell, with the NIFTY falling furthest. Last week the most volatile pair was GBPJPY up 2.41%, this week it’s down 2.38%. Yet another crypto rally, and notably Bitcoin added another 14% over the weekend. FANGs were all considerably further down than NDX as a whole.  

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)
  • German and Eurozone GDP
  • US Retail Sales but little else
  • Option expiration week
  • Several CB speakers

Monday May 13
A quiet start to the week with no significant European or US news. Markets are closed in Hong Kong. Fed Rosengren (hawk, voter) and Clarida (vice-chair) speak today. There is an election in the Philippines.

01:30 AUD Aus Investment Lending for Homes
02:15 CNY China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY)
05:00 JPY Japan Leading Economic Index
21:30 CAD BoC Lane Speech

Tuesday May 14
All the news is from Europe today, with another day of nothing from the US. Fed George (hawk, voter)speaks today.

06:00 EUR Germany CPI (e1.7% p2.1%)
08:30 GBP UK Unemployment/AHE (Core AHE e3.4% p3.4%)
09:00 EUR Eurozone & Germany ZEW Sentiment
20:30 WTI API Oil Stock

Wednesday May 15
After the simultaneous German and Eurozone GDP, we have US Retail Sales and Canadian inflation, both at 1230. Expected USDCAD volatility. Fed Barkin (hawkish, non-voter) speaks today. NDX heavyweight CSCO reports after the bell. There are rate decisions on RON and PLN.

00:30 AUD Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence
01:30 AUD Aus Wage Price Index (QoQ)
02:00 CNY China Retail Sales (YoY)
02:00 CNY China Industrial Production (YoY)
02:00 CNY China NBS Presser
06:00 EUR Germany 19Q1 GDP (prelim) (QoQ e0.3% p0.0%)
09:00 EUR Eurozone 19Q1 GDP (prelim) (QoQ e0.4% lunch.)
12:30 USD US Retail Sales Apr (Control Grp e0.4% p1.0%)
12:30 CAD Canada CPI (Core YoY e1.8% p1.6%)
13:15 USD US Industrial Production (MoM)
14:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock

Thursday May 16
The most important print of the day is the Australian jobs report. DJIA component WMT reports before the bell. There are rate decisions on IDR and MXN.

00:00 EUR Eurogroup Meeting (all day)
01:30 AUD Aus NFP/UnEmp (NFP e14k p25.7k)
02:45 AUD RBA Bullock speech
08:15 EUR BuBa President/ECB Weidmann speech
12:30 USD US Housing Starts/Building Permits (MoM)
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims
12:30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey
17:30 GBP BoE Haskel speech
21:30 NZD Business NZ PMI

Friday May 17
Today is monthly OpEx day, so expect additional volatility. The key release is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Markets are closed in Denmark and Norway. This weekend is the Australian Federal Election, and the results from India are due next week.

00:00 AUD Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI
14:00 USD Michigan CSI (prelim) e97.2 unch.

This report is published every week as an email by - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here

Sunday 5 May 2019

Week to May 3rd

Fed ‘no rate cut’, Strong NFP but weak AHE, AAPL up GOOGL down on earnings
Mon Apr 29
Markets were subdued today, although SPX made a new intraday high before closing at 2943. The best US Consumer Spending print (1230) since August 2009 was subdued by a miss on PCE, the inflation metric used by the Fed at the same time. DAX and FTSE were also slightly up but NKY futures (Japan was closed all week) were down. USD was flat (DXY -0.05%) with slight advances in most currencies being matched by a pullback in JPY and Gold. Oil and yields were slightly up. GOOGL missed on earnings after the bell and the stock dropped 5%.

Tuesday April 30
After a sharp pullback at the open, SPX rallied into the close to make a new all-time closing high of 2945.83. NDX was less fortunate as the GOOGL loss extended to 7.5% trimming 0.7% from the index. Similar patterns were seen on other markets, although FTSE only managed to end flat due to GBP strength. The AAPL beat at 2030 kept SPX futures rallying.

There was a definitely trend down in the dollar (DXY -0.20%), as EUR rose firmly on a string of strong data from Europe, German (0755) and Eurozone (0900) unemployment, European GDP (0900) and German inflation (1200) all beat estimates, whereas the US Home Price Indices (1300) and Chicago PMI (1345) missed. Other currencies (and Gold) advanced, especially GBP breaking back through $1.30 for the first time in three weeks. Only AUD was weighed by the China PMI miss (0100) and was flat on the day. Oil advanced slightly, and yields were flat after an earlier rally.

Wednesday May 01
The new month opened with PMI misses at 1345 and 1400, and markets began to fade. The Fed at 1900 did not mention rate cuts in the minutes and would not discuss them at the presser. Together with the PMIs, “Sell in May” sentiment, and of course all-time high resistance, SPX fell 0.8%, its worst day since March 22. Other world markets behaved similarly, although notably they had started falling earlier. The ADP jobs beat had little effect.

USD of course spiked up on the dismissal of cuts although it had already been falling all day. DXY ended up 0.1% up. GBP and JPY ended flat, but other currencies were slightly down. Yields were also flat, the Fed spike recovering earlier losses, as was Oil, after a wobble at the EIA miss at 1430.

Thursday May 02
We often remind you that the Fed effect continues into the next day, and so it was today, with DXY adding 0.22%, yields advancing again and SPX falling further. The German Manufacturing PMI at 0755 missed and slipped further to a new low of 44.4, although this was countered by the weaker EUR and DAX ended up on the day. FTSE and NKY rallied by were both dragged down by SPX in the US session.

All currencies and Gold moved down against the ’no rate cut’ dollar, although GBP’s move was more muted after a hawkish BoE. Oil gave up 3.4% in line with the two-day equity pullback.

Friday May 03
After two days of pullback, the blowout NFP at 1330 (263k vs 190k) changed the mood completely, and SPX added 1%, and risk-on NDX 1.6%. World equities joined in the party. The AHE print missed, and this is bad for USD (workers need wage inflation to afford higher interest rates), as did the ISM Services PMI at 1400. USD declined sharply, with DXY shedding 0.36%, and all currencies and Gold up, with a particularly strong showing from GBP, with cable adding 175 pips from 1100 onwards. Yields were down in line with the dollar, and Oil recovered some of Thursday’s collapse.

DAX was the winner this week, as US indices reacted to the Fed, and GBPJPY up 2.41% was the standout forex pair. Crypto rallied again, and the big FANG moves were on earnings, AAPL up and GOOGL down substantially.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)
  • Rate decisions in AUD and NZD
  • Trade Talks resume
  • US and China Trade Balances and inflation
  • Earnings season largely over
Monday May 06
Markets are closed in the UK, Ireland and Japan, and there is no US news, and earnings season is largely over. Expect a quiet Monday, with the China PMI setting the tone.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Services PMI
08:00 EUR Eurozone Markit PMI Composite
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY)
13:30 USD Fed Harker speech
17:45 CAD BoC Governor Poloz speech
22:30 AUD Aus AiG Performance of Construction Index

Tuesday May 07
After earlier Australian releases, the RBA official consensus is a hold, but some commentators are predicting a 25bp cut. Uncertainty predicts a material move in AUD. Another day with no US (or European) news of note.

01:30 AUD Aus Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
01:30 AUD Aus Imports/Exports/TB
04:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e 1.5% hold)
14:00 NZD NZ GDT Milk Index
14:00 CAD Canada Ivey PMIs
20:30 WTI API Oil Stock
23:01 GBP UK BRC Retail Sales
23:50 JPY BoJ MPC Minutes

Le jour de gloire est arrivé
Wednesday May 08
Amazingly, a third day without US major releases, so we turn to Asia. A 25bp cut in the NZD rate is priced in at 70%, so like Australia, uncertain enough to cause a move either way. Trade talks are back on the agenda, with Chinese vice-PM Liu visiting Washington. There are rate decisions on BRL (6.5% hold expected), and THB. South Africa holds a general election. Markets are closed in France for VE Day, oddly not celebrated in the UK. The only significant earnings release of the week is DIS, after the close. Guidance should include their new Disney Plus streaming service projections.

02:00 CNY Imports/Exports/TB
02:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision/Statement (e 1.50% p 1.75%)
03:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production
14:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock
20:05 DIS Earnings

Thursday May 09
The third major print from China this week is inflation, and may set the initial tone in the absence of European releases, although the US Trade Balance will be watched closely, being topical. There are rate decisions on NOK, CLP and PHP. Russian markets are closed for Victory Day.

01:30 CNY China CPI (YoY e 2.5% p 2.3%)
12:30 USD US PPI
12:30 USD US TB
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims
12:30 CAD Canada Imports/Export/TB
13:45 USD Fed Bostic speech
21:30 NZD NZ Business NZ PMI
22:45 NZD NZ Retail Sales
23:30 JPY Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY)

Friday May 10
Today is the most important news day this week, with the key US CPI release, estimated to improve despite last week’s PCE miss. Canada’s NFP comes a week later than the US this month. It would normally be a chance to see CAD reaction in isolation, but the US CPI print is simultaneous, so USDCAD could go either way. Plenty of Fed speakers today, with Bostic, Evans, Brainard and last but not least Chair Powell on the roster.

01:30 AUD Aus Home Loans
01:30 AUD RBA MPC Statement
06:00 EUR Germany TB
08:30 GBP UK 19Q1 Prelim GDP (QoQ e 0.2% p 0.2%)
08:30 GBP UK Manuf/Industrial Production
12:30 USD US CPI (Core YoY e 2.1% p 2.0%)
12:30 CAD Canada NFP/UnEmp/AHE/Participation (NFP est 1k p -7.2k)
13:05 USD Fed Bostic speech
17:00 WTI Baker Hughes Rig Count
18:00 USD US Monthly Budget Statement

This report is published every week as an email by - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here