Sunday 28 April 2019

Week to April 26th

Another strong earnings week, SPX, USD and Oil at new highs

Mon Apr 22
The big news over the weekend was the end of US sanctions waivers for Iranian Oil which pushed the black stuff up 2.6% (Brent up 3%) along with FTSE and DAX futures. US equity markets, which were open, ended flat. With London closed there was very little action in forex, and no direction. DXY was flat overall. Yields moved up slightly.

Tuesday April 23
Strong earnings from TWTR and KO gave makers a strong boost today, and took SPX  up 0.9% to a new all-time high, the first since Sep 20. Non-US indices followed, although the effect was more muted in DAX. The dollar also had a good day after the positive housing data, and DXY added 0.32%, Gold was down in line with the dollar move, although unusually, JPY and bonds (inverse to yields) were slightly up.

Wednesday April 24
The SPX ATH having been reached, today’s earnings releases had less effect than expected. BA only matched EPS, missed on Revenue, paused their buybacks, and delayed guidance due to the 737 MAX problems, yet the shares hardly moved. It was a similar story with V, who beat estimates, yet ended the day flat. SPX ended the day 0.2% down.

The picture was quite different elsewhere in the word. NKY fell sharply in the cash session, and recovered only slightly. FTSE also fell throughout the day, however DAX was stronger, up 0.6% on sharp rises in SAP.DE and WDI.DE.

The dollar had another strong day, with DXY up 0.48% across the board to a new two-year high. CAD fell after the dovish BoC statement at 1500. EUR was already down after the German IFO sentiment misses at 0800, and AUD fell on the CPI miss at 0030. Once again, the risk indicators were mixed. Despite a sudden move down in JPY around 1600, Gold steadily climbed, and yields fell again, by 5bp today.

Thursday April 25
Strong post-bell earnings on Wednesday for FB and MSFT pushed the latter to an all-time high, however the flat SPX top continued. MMM fell 13% on poor earnings, meaning DJIA was down 0.4%. World indices were similarly off slightly.

DXY took a breather today, and was up only 0.09% (yet another two-year high), and that was only because of an unusually strong move up (about 80 pips) in JPY after the BoJ statement at 0600. Other currencies were fairly flat, although Gold was up again. Yields advanced 1bp. After two flat days, Oil gave up a dollar.

Friday April 26
Strong AMZN earnings but a miss from INTC meant NDX gapped down and then rallied to close flat. SPX was better, up 0.5% to make another new high after the GDP (1230) and MCSI (1400) beats (NDX made new highs last week). NKY and DAX followed, but FTSE stumbled as GBP turned up after falling all week.

The dollar gave up 0.1% today, across the board, with all currencies advancing (except JPY which was flat). Gold and bonds were up in line. This was due to the PCE miss at the same time as GDP. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. GDP does not really move the dollar, as growth is not part of the Fed mandate. Oil gave up all its recent gains, sliding 3.46% on worries about over-supply. 

NDX was the winner this week, outperforming DJIA by some margin, and AUDJPY was the weakest pair, falling 1.92%. FB beat the other FANGs after earnings. In crypto, BTC hardly moved but ETH had a bad week giving up 11.75%.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)
  • NFP and Fed Rate in same week
  • GDP and inflation in Europe
  • Chinese Manufacturing PMI
  • AAPL and GOOGL report

Monday April 29
MCD and GOOGL report today. Markets in Japan are closed until May 7 as the Heisei era gives way to Reiwa as the new Emperor accedes to the throne. They are also closed in Greece and some Eastern European countries for Orthodox Easter Monday, and also in Egypt and Vietnam.

09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate
12:00 MCD Earnings
12:30 USD US PCE/Personal Spending
21:00 GOOGL Earnings
23:01 GBP UK GfK Consumer Confidence

Tuesday April 30
EUR could be affected early today with the first reading of Eurozone GDP followed by the German inflation print. GE report before the bell, along with minor DJIA components PFE and MRK, but there will be more interest in AAPL who report 30 minutes after the close. There may be some month-end volatility. There is a rate decision on HUF (0.9% hold expected). Markets remain closed in Ukraine

01:00 CNY China NBS PMIs
06:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate/Change
09:00 EUR Eurozone 19Q1 GDP prelim (YoY est 1.1% unch.)
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
10:30 GE Earnings
12:00 EUR Germany CPI prelim. (e 1.6% p 1.4%)
12:30 CAD Canada GDP (MoM
13:00 USD US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
13:45 USD Chicago PMI
14:00 USD US Consumer Confidence/Pending Home Sales
14:00 CAD BoC Governor Poloz speaks
20:30 WTI API Oil Stock
20:30 AAPL Earnings
22:30 AUD Aus AiG Performance of Mfg Index
22:45 NZD NZ Emp Change/UnEmp (e 1.0% p 0.1%)

Wednesday May 01
A new month, and we are straight into the Fed rate decision meeting, with the CME Fedwatch tool showing a 97.5% chance of a hold, and 2.5% for a cut. Note the prediction for a cut in June is as high as 20%. A distinct change from last year. No majors on earnings today, but several NDX components (PEP, QCOM and KHC) report. Markets are closed in China, South Africa, and most of Europe and Latin America for International Labour Day. The US/Canada, UK, and Australia/New Zealand are open. 

08:30 GBP UK Markit Manufacturing PMI
12:15 USD US ADP Employment Change
13:30 CAD Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI
13:45 USD US Markit Manufacturing PMI
14:00 USD US ISM Manufacturing PMI (e 55.0 p 55.3)
14:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock
18:00 USD Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e 2.5% hold)
20:15 CAD BoC Governor Poloz speaks
22:45 NZD NZ Building Permits

Thursday May 02
Attention turns to the UK today with the BoE but no surprises are anticipated. The Chinese Manufacturing PMI is important, as it only recently turned back positive (over 50), and traders will be disappointed if the momentum does not continue. As well as GBP, there is rate decision on CZK (1.75% hold expected)

01:30 AUD Aus HIA New Home Sales (time approx.)
01:45 CNY China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (e 50.9 p 50.8)
06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales
07:55 EUR Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI
08:30 GBP UK Markit Construction PMI
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision/Statement (e 0.75% hold) 
11:30 GBP BoE Governor Carney speaks
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims/Productivity/Labor Costs
14:00 USD US Factory Orders (MoM)

Friday May 03
Another month, another NFP, with the usual estimate level, and of course the most important event of the day. The only significant earnings are BABA before the bell. BABA of course is not part of NDX. Markets are closed in Poland for Constitution Day.

01:30 AUD Aus Building Permits (MoM)
07:30 CHF Swiss CPI
08:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI prelim. (e 1.6% p 1.4%)
12:30 USD US NFP/Unemp/AHE (e 180k p 190k)
13:45 USD US Markit Services/Composite PMI
14:00 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (e 57.2 p 56.1)
17:00 WTI Baker Hughes Rig Count

This report is published every week as an email by - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here

Saturday 20 April 2019

Week to Apr 19th

Mixed first week of Earnings Season, Healthcare and European manufacturing stumbles

Mon Apr 15
The euphoria following Friday’s JPM beat was tamed today with a revenue miss by GS. US markets dipped but recovered to end the day flat. The situation was better elsewhere with NKY and the European indices making small advances. USD advanced only very slightly (DXY +0.09%) mainly due to a CAD fade after the weak BoC Business Survey. Other currencies were largely flat, as were yields. Gold and Oil slipped slightly in line with the dollar.

Tuesday April 16
The pre-bell earnings were better today, with comfortable beats from heavyweights BAC, JNJ and UNH, although the latter immediately fell again, on concern about the Democrat plan (if elected in 2020) for universal healthcare. The overall effect on SPX, after an initial rally was another flat day, whilst once again non-US indices advanced.

USD continued to gently fade up (DXY+0.13%), as EUR and GBP faded after mixed German sentiment (0900) and the UK claimant count miss (0830). AUD fell sharply on the dovish RBA minutes (0130), but caught a bid as the US awoke, and recovered equally fast. CAD was up, as was Oil after the API stock report beat at 2030.

The surprise mover was Gold, dropping 0.9% to a new 2019 low, after reports that some ECB policymakers are pessimistic about economic projections, reducing the need for safe-haven bullion. Similarly, US yields were substantially up 6bp (bonds are also a safe haven).

Wednesday April 17
Despite early hopes from the Chinese GDP beat at 0200, the UNH rout spooked the markets today as the stock broke through April and Feb 18 support to an 18-month low dragging DJIA down, and pushing XLV into the red for 2019. This is despite NDX briefly (for 5 minutes at the open!) made a new ATH. NKY and FTSE followed suit (the latter into the next day), but DAX was immune to all this and carried on rising.

Another quiet day for the dollar (DXY +0.06%) saw a small recovery in EUR balanced by move down in JPY. CAD briefly spiked up on the CPI beat at 1230, but quickly gave this up and also ended down. Gold continued to make new lows, and Oil gave up some of Tuesdays gains despite the EIA beat at 1430. Yields were flat on the day.

Thursday April 18
A strong beat on US Retail Sales at 1230, gave the OpEx day before the Easter break a boost and after stuttering early, markets US rose to recover some of Wednesday’s losses. Other world markets followed suit.  In forex, EUR fell hard after the crucial German (0830) and Eurozone (0900) Manufacturing PMIs both missed, the single currency losing 0.54% in two spikes down. Most currencies (and Gold) also fell, giving DXY (+0.43%) its best day of the week. Surprisingly, yields fell again to return to Tuesday’s lows.

Friday April 19
World equity and bond markets were closed for Good Friday. Forex was traded but was extremely muted, with a very slight dollar softening (except for CAD, which was down).

Indices were fairly flat again this week, with DAX the best performer up 1.85%. The weakest forex pair week was NZDJPY down 1.24%. NFLX was the top FANG after its losses last week, and cryptos rallied again, but more modestly than they have done in the past.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • Rate decisions in Japan and China
  • Large weight of Dow and NDX reporting
  • Preliminary US GDP and PCE for Q1
  • Another four-day (or less) week in Europe

Monday April 22
A quiet day on news. Markets are closed in Europe and Australia/New Zealand for Easter Monday.

12:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index 
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)

Tuesday April 23
Before the bell we have volatile TWTR and three DJIA defensives KO, PG, and UTX, the latter comprising 7.4% of the index, but little in scheduled news. Markets are closed in Turkey.

13:00 USD Housing Price Index (MoM)
14:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM)
20:30 WTI API Oil Stock

Wednesday April 24
Before the bell, we have earnings from BA, CAT and V, adding up to 17.5% of DJIA, the largest concentration this season, whereas afterwards 16% of NDX reports in the form of FB, TSLA and MSFT. The main scheduled event is the Canadian rate decision, or more specifically, the statement.

00:30 AUD Australia CPI (RBA Mean QoQ est 0.4% lunch.)
04:30 JPY Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM)
05:00 JPY Japan Leading Economic Index
08:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Sentiment
08:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Bulletin
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision (1.75% hold e)
14:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock

Thursday April 25
Only one DJIA stock, MMM (5.9% weight) reports before the bell. The action is at the end of the day with giants AMZN and INTC, which with SBUX make up 14% of NDX. It’s odd that SBUX is in the ‘Tech’ 100, but so is inter alia PEP, WBA, and KHC. There are rate decisions on TRY, IDR and UAH. Markets are closed in Australia/New Zealand for ANZAC Day, and also in Portugal and Italy.

02:00 JPY BoJ Rate Decision (-0.1% hold e)
06:00 JPY BoJ Presser
06:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims
12:30 USD Durable/Capital Goods (CG e 0.1% p -0.1%)
22:45 NZD NZ Imp/Exp/TB
23:30 JPY Japan Jobs-Applicants/Unemployment
23:50 JPY Tokyo CPI (e 1.1% unch.)
23:50 JPY Japan Ind. Production/Retail Trade

Friday April 26
The preliminary GDP and PCE reports for Q1 are clearly the most important release today. Oil giants XOM and CVX report before the bell. There are rate decisions on RUB, SGD and COP. Markets are closed in Romania.

12:30 USD US GDP/PCE 19Q1 Prelim. (GDP YoY e 1.8% p 2.2%)
14:00 USD US Michigan CSI
17:00 WTI Baker Hughes Rig Count

This week I was involved the preparation of a video for my colleague Ed Matts forthcoming webinar next Thursday. You can see it here and sign up for the presentation here.

This report is published every week as an email by - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here

Sunday 14 April 2019

Week to Apr 12th

EU grant further Brexit delay, No ECB or Fed surprises, Strong start to earnings season

Mon Apr 08
Last week’s equity rally ran out of steam, and in the absence of important news, equity markets drifted. DAX was slightly down, other markets slightly up. The dollar was firmly down (DXY -0.31%) after two weeks of gains, and all currencies (and Gold) were up with a particularly strong showing from CAD, tracking Oil, which was up nearly 2% on concerns about Libyan politics and conflict.

It is pleasing to see the CAD/Oil link work so well, the loonie tracked black gold pretty much all this week, as seen in the chart below. Yields advanced slightly.
Tuesday April 09
A gloomy growth forecast from the IMF, and a Trump tweet threatening EU tariffs spooked markets, which pulled back today. The DAX move was particularly sharp on the tweet, as you would expect as 20% of the German index is autos, one of Trump’s well-known targets.

The dollar had a flat day, with a slight move up in JPY (and Gold) being matched fades in CAD (as Oil gave up some of Monday’s gains) and GBP (the usual reason). EUR and AUD were flat. Yields were down due to stock-bond rotation.

Wednesday April 10
Today was packed with events, but they had little effect on the market. The ECB and Fed offered nothing new, merely repeating their dovish rhetoric from previous months, and the mixed US CPI at 1230 (MoM beat 0.4% vs 0.3%, Core miss, MoM 0.1% vs 0.2%, YoY 2.0% vs 2.1%) was disregarded. Even the hefty EIA miss (7.03M v 2.29M) at 1430 had little effect on Oil which followed equities up, recovering some (Europe/Japan) or all (US) of Tuesday’s losses.

DXY slipped slightly (-0.11%) largely due to a GBP recovery after the GDP beat at 0830. EUR did crash 40 pips when ECB Draghi spoke at 1230, but this was recovered in four hours. Of course this may have been caused by the simultaneous CPI print (as CAD made a similar move, as did yields, which stayed down). Despite the equity recovery, Gold and JPY continued to advance, as counterintuitively did AUD.

Thursday April 11
Equities stalled today, with most markets flat. DAX and FTSE dumped at the European open, probably in disappointment at the Brexit 6-month (and not 12-month extension) but quickly recovered. The dollar was slightly up (DXY +0.26%) but evenly (all currencies down) up after positive comments on the US/China situation from TreasSec Mnuchin.

Despite flat indices, there were mixed messages from the usual indicators. JPY and Gold gave clear risk-on signals. The yen was the weakest currency today, and Gold fell 1.39%, its worst day this month. However, yields rose 3bp, and Oil gave up 2% from Wednesday’s high.

Friday April 12
The long awaiting earnings season opened with a bang with banking giant JPM beating estimates and filing the highest ever first quarter profit for a US bank. It added 4.6% on the day. WFC also beat on EPS but missed on revenue and its stock fell 2.6%. DIS gapped up 10% on news of their new streaming service. SPX is now only 0.81% off its all-time high, and NDX is only 0.45% away, a remarkable recovery from the December lows. A sharp rise in yields signalled further bond-stock rotation, and Oil followed stocks although giving up those gains into the close.

Other world indices followed suit with the exception of FTSE which collapse on a very strong GBP rally, although this faded after European equities closed. Overall DXY continued its downward trending for the week with all currencies up, except of course JPY (and Gold).

Equity markets were directionless for much of the week, only rallying on Friday. NDX was the best performer. In forex, USD finally had a pullback week, with DXY shedding 0.53%. The best performer was, unusually, AUDJPY up 1.21%.  FANGs were fairly flat, except for NFLX, which pulled back on the DIS streaming channel announcement. DIS was up 13% on the week, its best for 10 years. Cryptos went back to sleep after a couple of wild weeks.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

Monday April 15
The four-day pre-Easter week opens with little scheduled news, so attention will be on the next two banks, GS and C who report before the bell. GS is 5.26% of DJIA. Fed Evans (2019 voter, centrist) speaks at 1700, and BoE Haskel (centrist) is on an hour earlier. It is Tax Day in the US, so expect additional volatility. Markets are closed in Vietnam, Thailand and Sri Lanka.

14:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey
16:00 GBP BoE Haskel speech

Tuesday April 16
A big day on earnings with BAC, and JNJ and UNH (together 9.62% of DJIA) reporting before the bell, and tech giants IBM and NFLX reporting after the close. Fed Rosengren (hawk, 2019 voter) speaks at 0000. Markets are closed for a second day in Thailand for the Songkran Festival.

00:00 USD Fed Rosengren speech
01:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
02:00 CNY China NBS Press Conference
08:30 GBP AHE/Unemployment/Claimant Count Change (AHE e 3.4% uc)
09:00 EUR ZEW Sentiment Surveys (Econ Sentiment e -11 p -3.6)
12:00 NZD GDT Milk Index (time approx.
13:15 USD US Industrial Production (MoM)
20:30 WTI API Oil Stock
22:45 NZD NZ CPI (e 1.8% uc)
23:50 JPY Japan Imports/Exports/TB

Wednesday April 17
The earnings reports continue today, with banker MS before the open, and AA after the close. UK inflation will be watched closely, now the immediacy of Brexit is muted. Fed Bullard (dove, 2019 voter) speaks on the economic outlook. Markets are closed in India and for a half-day in Norway. There is a rate decision on HKD, and a general election in Indonesia (incumbents leading in polls).

02:00 CNY China Retail Sales/Industrial Production
02:00 CNY China NBS Press Conference
02:00 CNY China Q1/19 GDP (YoY e 6.3% p 6.1%)
04:30 JPY Japan Industrial Production (YoY)
08:30 GBP UK CPI/RPI/PPI (Core CPI YoY e 1.8% uc)
09:00 EUR EZ CPI (Core YoY est 0.8% unch.)
12:30 USD TB (Feb)
12:30 CAD Canada CPI (BoC Core p 1.5%)
14:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock
18:00 USD Fed's Beige Book

Thursday April 18
Today is option expiration date for April and the week as tomorrow is a holiday. DJIA components TRV (before the market) and AXP (after) report today. Markets are closed in the Nordic Countries (except Finland), The Philippines, and most of Latin America for Maundy Thursday. There is a rate decision on KRW.

01:30 AUD Australia NFP/UE (e 12k/5% p 4.6k/4.9%)
06:00 EUR Germany PPI MoM (Mar)
07:30 EUR Germany Markit PMIs (Mfr e 45, p 44.1)
08:00 EUR EZ Markit PMIs (Composite e 51.8 p 51.6)
08:30 GBP UK Retail Sales
12:30 USD US Retail Sales (Mar Control Group e 0.4% p -0.2%)
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims
12:30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey
12:30 CAD Canada Retail Sales (p -0.3%)
23:30 JPY Japan National CPI

Friday April 19
The USTC is expected to release its report on the USMCA (NAFTA 2). There may also be a report this week (scheduled mid-April) on China currency manipulation. Markets in the US and Europe are closed today for Good Friday. Asia remains open. Note that Europe and Australasia are also closed on Monday. There are no earnings reports of note, and only one news item. Futures trading and forex remain open.

12:30 USD US Building Permits/Housing Starts
17:00 WTI Baker Hughes Rig Count

This report is published every week as an email by - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here

Sunday 7 April 2019

Week to Apr 5th

Equities rally on China hopes, Flat dollar despite wild GBP, Best crypto week for over a year

Mon Apr 01
The first day of the week, the month and the quarter opened strongly after the China Manufacturing PMI beat at 0145. We pointed out the significance of this last week. The figure came in at 50.8 vs 49.9 est, only 0.9 beat, but critically crossing the 50 point, the line between contraction and expansion. The important US ISM similar release beat at 1400, giving a sharp uptick to USDJPY. (the same release for Germany at 0700 - 44.1 vs 44.7 est - showed that last month’s print of 47.6 was not an outlier, as some commentators had thought.

The net result was a strong risk-on run for equities across the board, and an advance of 0.13% for DXY. EUR, JPY, Gold and 10-year Bonds (inverse to yields) dropped suddenly after the ISM print. Against this, CAD perked up after hawkish (well less dovish than expected) remarks from the BoC at 1755. AUD, without news, was flat. The dollar advance would have been greater expect for cable, up 1% on ‘soft’ Brexit hopes.

Tuesday April 02
As we predicted last week, the RBA did indeed join the chorus of doves at 0330, and the day started with a sharp fall in AUD. GBP had collapsed overnight, but climbed back to end the day flat on reports of bipartisan (ie May and opposition leader Corbyn) Brexit talks. CAD faded the Poloz gains. As AUD is not part of DXY, and the other majors had a quiet day, the DXY basket closed virtually flat (-0.03%), as did yields. Gold was slightly up. Equities had another good day, but mostly outside the US. NDX managed to add 0.3% but SPX was flat.

What was interesting is that after months in the doldrums, BTC spiked up 20% up in an hour from 0430, with, obviously, over 100x normal volume (and held onto these gains). This was accompanied by a similar move in ETH, but that took two days to complete. Naturally rumours abounded an Asian ‘whale’ in this unregulated world.

Wednesday April 03
Reports in the FT that the US and China were close to finalising their trade deal, plus a raft of PMI Services beats, resulted in a third day of equity gains, particularly in DAX. Only the US wobbled slightly after their ISM Non-Manufacturing print missed at 1400, trimming an SPX 0.6% advance to 0.2% at the close. After two green days Oil was down slightly after the substantial EIA stock miss (+7.2M vs -0.4M, more is worse) at 1430.

DXY shed 0.22% today, on the contrasting US and other PMIs, and possibly the ADP jobs miss at 1215. Gold was down, and yields and AUD were up in line with risk-on equities. JPY and CAD were probably pulled in two directions, risk on vs dollar weakness and Oil respectively. Both currencies were flat. EUR and GBP were both up.

Thursday April 04
Another up day from equities as Trump confirmed the China progress, although the pace was slowing. FTSE gapped down 0.4% to reflect overnight GBP strength but managed to recover this to end flat. The dollar recovered to close where it ended on Tuesday, evenly across all currencies. Oil faded slightly in line with the dollar. Gold was unusual, spiking down 0.5% through six hours to touch it Mar 7 low before recovering. Yields were flat on the day.

Friday April 05
Without a lead from China, which was closed, markets breathed a sigh of relief on the NFP beat at 1230, showing that last month was an outlier, and all were up, although the DAX gain was marginal. The SPX ran nicely to a pattern we have pointed out before, where after an instant spike, the price fades until the cash open, and then the size of that spike is repeated, as shown in the chart here. The trade is to buy SPX at the open, with a stop below the pre-NFP price, and a target of the ramp repeated. Oil was up 1.5% in line with the mood.

DXY was only very slightly up (+0.07%), EUR made small gains to offset the fall in GBP (Brexit) and CAD (Canadian NFP miss). After a strong week, yields fell 4bp after Trump called for the Fed to reintroduce QE.

The US major markets are now very close to previous all-time highs. SPX and DJIA are 1.68% away, NDX is even nearer at 1.39%, although notably RUT, DAX, NKY are around 10% off. It will be interesting to see if the SPX record close of 2930 is beaten next week.

Another strong week for DAX makes it the top index mover again. In forex, the best trade would have been AUDJPY, up 0.90%. FANGs all beat their parent NDX index, with a particularly strong showing from FB, and the Tuesday crypto spike held, to give BTC and ETH their best week for over a year.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT, not BST)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)
  • EU consider further Brexit delay
  • US, China and German inflation
  • ECB rate decision and statement
  • Earning season starts on Friday

Monday April 08
After last weeks big calendar and start to the week and quarter, we are back to the usual quiet Monday today. Watch out for any weekend news, particularly on Brexit or Trump tweets. There are rate decisions on ILS and LKR. Markets are closed in Thailand.

06:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance
14:00 USD US Factory Orders (MoM)

Tuesday April 09
Another quiet day, with no releases in the European and US cash sessions, except the JOLTS jobs openings at 1400. Fed Vice Chair Clarida, (voter, obviously) centrist by definition, but thought to be leaning dovishly at the moment. Markets are closed in the Philippines and in Israel where there is an election, where the incumbent Likud government may not win. There is a rate decision on RSD.

01:30 AUD Aus Home Loans
05:45 CHF Switzerland Unemployment Rate
20:30 WTI API Oil Stock
22:45 USD Fed Clarida speech
23:01 GBP UK BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales
23:50 JPY Japan Machinery Orders

Wednesday April 10
Easily the busiest day of the week, the EU summit is almost certain to grant UK PM May a long extension to Brexit, rather than the short one she has asked for, figuring that the longer the extension, the softer the eventual Brexit, which is the EU’s stated preference. With Bund yields still negative, the ECB statement should prove interesting. Further TLTRO details may be unveiled, and if not, may be asked about in the presser.

US CPI is expected to be unchanged, which validates the Fed’s current no hike policy. The risk is to the upside, ie a beat may make traders think again. Although not a rate set meeting, the FOMC March minutes today put some flesh on the bones of the dovish reversal seem recently.

00:30 AUD Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence
02:30 AUD RBA's Debelle speech
06:15 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda speech
08:30 GBP UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production
08:30 GBP UK GDP (MoM Feb)
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision/Statement (est 0% hold)
12:30 USD US CPI (Core YoY est 2.1% prev 2.1%)
12:30 EUR ECB Presser
15:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock
15:50 USD Fed Quarles speech
18:00 USD FOMC Minutes

Thursday April 11
Voting in the Indian election starts today. The world’s largest electorate will take six weeks to vote, with the counting starting on May 23. Exit polls are notoriously unreliable, but nevertheless, any significant move from the BJP to the Congress party may have an effect on markets. Chinese and German inflation are the key prints on the day.

00:00 AUD Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations
01:30 CNY China CPI (est 2.3% prev 1.5%)
02:30 AUD RBA's Debelle speech
06:00 EUR Germany CPI (est 1.4% prev 1.5%)
12:30 USD US PPI
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Fed Clarida 2nd speech
20:00 USD Fed Bowman speech
22:30 NZD Business NZ PMI
22:45 NZD NZ Electronic Card Retail Sales 

Friday April 12
The Q1/2019 Earnings Season starts today with the usual first reporter JPM, and fellow bank WFC, before the bell. The dovish Fed is bad for banks, and traders will be watching forward estimates closely. The IMF begin a three-day meeting in Washington DC. Today is the next Brexit 'deadline' although it is likely another extension will have been granted before then. Markets have a half-day in Sri Lanka. There are elections in Finland on Sunday.

02:00 CNY China Imports/Exports/Trade Balance
02:15 CNY China FDI
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (est 98.0 prev 98.4)
17:00 WTI Baker Hughes Rig Count

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