Week to Mar 11th

Gold and Oil hit and retreat from highs

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL GBPJPY

LAST WEEK

The war in Ukraine continues with no clear progress by either side, and this is keeping markets depressed, but hugely volatile. US markets fell but held the Feb 24th invasion low, however European markets, which dipped below last week recovered, with a particularly strong showing from oversold DAX. The main news item, US CPI, was in line with estimates, and had little effect on markets.

The dollar (DXY) hit a new two-year high, and all currencies were down. EUR rose into the ECB meeting, and then fell away despite a relatively hawkish stance from President Lagarde, paving the way for rate hikes. GBP was sharply down, making a 16-month low. Notably, and unusually JPY fell sharply all week, unlike its fellow safe haven Gold, which shot up to $2,070, within a whisker of its all-time high, before falling back sharply. Similarly, Oil spiked up to highs not seen since 2008, before pulling back sharply. 10-year yields followed the dollar and reversed last week's drop.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The biggest index mover was oversold DAX, up 4.07%. The top forex mover was USDJPY down 2.18%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were flat again. Tech underperformed generally as the rate hike looms. We are seeing notable divergence by the weaker FANGs NFLX and FB.

Last week's EURNZD long position made 0.66%, which means I am ahead 8.25% this year, with 6/9 (66.7%) wins. This week I am expecting the BoE will not raise rates and selling GBPJPY.

 

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK

Although Ukraine is still dominating the headlines, all eyes will be on the Fed on Wednesday for their anticipated first rate hike (25bp to 0.50%) since 2019. This is 97% likely (and priced in) according to the CME Fedwatch tool. Also notable is the BoE decision. They raised rates by 25bp last month, so a further hike is less likely. The US, China and Canada all report Retail Sales, expected to be sluggish. And finally, next week is the two week period we get every March where the US enters DST two weeks before Europe, meaning US markets open and close an hour earlier for Europeans.

CALENDAR  (all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)

Monday March 14

02:00 China FDI (time approx.)

Tuesday March 15

00:30 Aus House Price Index

00:30 RBA MPC Minutes

02:00 China Retail Sales (e2.8% p1.7%)

07:00 UK AHE/UnEmp (UnEmp e4.0% p4.1%)

10:00 Eurozone Ind Production

10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment

10:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment

12:30 US PPI

23:50 Japan Import/Exports/TB

Wednesday March 16

04:30 Japan Industrial Production

10:30 Germany 10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)

12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM e0.6% p3.8%)

12:30 Canada BoC CPI (Core e4.8% p4.3%)

18:00 Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e0.5% p0.25%)

18:30 FOMC Press Conference

Thursday March 17

00:30 Aus Jobs/UnEmp (UnEMp e4.1% p4.2%)

10:00 Eurozone CPI

12:00 BoE Rate Decision/Statement (e0.5% hold)

12:30 US Building Permits/Housing Starts

12:30 US Jobless Claims

12:30 Philly Fed Mfr Survey

23:30 Japan National CPI

Friday March 18

03:00 BoJ Rate Decision/Statement (0.1% hold)

06:00 BoJ Press Conference

10:00 Eurozone Labor Cost

12:30 Canada Retail Sales (e-2.1% p-1.8%)

Week to Feb 18th

Ukraine uncertainty abounds. Gold makes 9-month high

MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY AUDNZD

LAST WEEK

Markets wobbled this week on Ukraine fears and but only ended up slightly down in inverted V-shaped pattern. USD made a V-shape but ultimately consolidated. The dollar consolidated and ended the week flat. After weeks of rising, 10-year yields pulled back in an inside week. Oil, affected by Ukraine tensions, was slightly more volatile and made a brief new high a few cents shy of $94 before pulling back. The only notable risk-off move was Gold which broke $1,900 for the first time since May 2021. The FOMC minutes did not reveal anything new, and there was no reaction from traders.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The biggest index mover was Ukraine-sensitive DAX, down 2.48%. The top forex mover was EURNZD down 1.07%. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell moderately, and FANG was fairly flat, except for beleaguer FB, down 6.1% and now at May 2020 lows, 46% off its September 2021 high.

Last week's EURGBP long position lost 0.48%, which means I am ahead 2.83% this year, with 3/6 (50%) wins. The trend is difficult to read this week, so I will fall back on my reserve AUDNZD, as a buy. It's won't make much, but it's safe.

 
Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK

Next week is a foreshortened four day week after Presidents Day on Monday when the markets are closed. There is little significant scheduled news, most important print is US GDP on Thu estimated at 7%, equal to the inflation figure which indicates no growth. With that, the primary focus will be on the tensions in Ukraine.


CALENDAR  (all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)

Monday February 21
22:00 Commonwealth Bank PMIs (Sun)
01:15 PBoC Rate Decision/Statement (e3.7% hold)
07:00 Germany PPI
08:30 Germany Markit PMIs (Mfr e59.4 p59.8)
09:00 Eurozone Markit PMIs (Comp e52.7 p53.8)
09:30 UK Markit Svcs PMI (e55.2 p54.1)

Tuesday February 22
09:00 Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators
10:45 BoE Ramsden speech
14:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices
14:45 US Markit PMIs
15:00 US Consumer Confidence

Wednesday February 23
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence
10:00 Eurozone HICP (CPI)

Thursday February 24
13:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
13:30 US PCE (QoQ)
13:30 US Q4 GDP (e7.0% p6.9%)
13:30 US Jobless Claims
15:00 US New Home Sales
23:30 Tokyo CPI

Friday February 25
07:00 Germany Q4 GDP
10:00 Eurozone Business Climate
10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence
13:30 US PCE (MoM & YoY)
13:30 US Durable/ND Capital Goods (DG e0.6% p-0.7%)
15:00 US Pending Home Sales
15:00 Michigan CSI

Week to Nov 12th

Inflation higher than expected, Strong Gold rally 

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL EURGBP

 

THIS WEEK

This week’s inevitable slide in equity markets was reversed after Wednesday’s strong inflation overshoot (core 4.6% vs est 4.3%, previously 4%), which created a V-shaped week, and sent Gold to five-month highs which were sustained.. The dollar and yields also rallied, pushing Oil down. All this showed the market thought rate hikes would come sooner, although surprisingly the Fed Futures rate did not move.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The biggest mover for a third week was NDX, down 0.97%. The top forex mover was NZDUSD this week, down 0.96%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were fairly flat, and FANGs were fairly flat except NFLX which reverted to mean.

Last week’s GBPNZD long made 0.42%, taking my year to date profit to 6.19% and 30/44 wins. This week I am selling EURGBP.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK

Next week sees the retail phase of earnings, and as inflation is the hot topic, with retail sales and CPI from the UK and Canada, and more importantly US retail sales. Overall, the proximity to Thanksgiving and Black Friday is more likely to influence markets.

CALENDAR  (all times are GMT)

Monday November 15
23:50 Japan Q3 Prelim GDP (Sunday) (QoQ e-0.2% p0.5%)
04:30 Japan Ind Production
09:30 BoE Haskel speech

Tuesday November 16
00:30 RBA Meeting Minutes
02:30 RBA Governor Lowe speech
07:00 UK Claimant Count/AHE/UnEmp (UnEmp e4.5% unch.)
10:00 Eurozone GDP (e2.2% unch.)
13:30 US Retail Sales (MoM e0.7% unch.)
23:30 Aus Westpac Leading Index

Wednesday November 17
00:30 Aus Wage Price Index
07:00 UK CPI (p3.1%)
08:00 EU Financial Stability Review
13:30 US Building Permits/Housing Starts
13:30 Canada BoC CPI (p3.7%)
14:10 Fed Williams speech
17:40 Fed Waller speech
21:05 Fed Evans speech

Thursday November 18
10:00 Eurozone CPI
13:30 Philly Fed Mfr Survey
13:30 US Jobless Claims
14:30 Fed Williams speech
19:00 Fed Evans speech
23:30 Japan National CPI
23:50 Japan Imports/Exports/TB

Friday November 19
07:00 UK Retail Sales
07:00 Germany PPI
08:00 ECB President Lagarde speech
13:00 ECB Weidmann speech
13:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM e2.0% p2.1%)
15:45 Fed Waller speech
17:15 Fed Clarida speech

Week to Aug 20th

FOMC Minutes break SPX run, Dollar makes 9-month high

MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY CADJPY

LAST WEEK

The 10-week run of new highs in SPX ended this week, which fell sharply as the FOMC minutes confirmed that taper is on the agenda. The events in Afghanistan did not help, not did the US Retail Sales miss. The dollar hit a nine-month high (and currencies hit a corresponding low). Notably the yen’s move was more muted, and Gold actually managed a small advance.Oil fell for the third week as it returns to its medium-term mean.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The biggest mover this week was NKY, down 3.45%. The top forex mover was AUDJPY down 2.95%. Crypto was flat after recent strong gains. FANGs were again varied, with NFLX bucking the general trend.

My AUDNZD short made 0.27% taking my year to date profit to 5.41% and 23/32 wins. This week I am buying CADJPY.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

Next week is dominated by the annual Jackson Hole symposium, and of course the big question, when is taper time, and of course the trajectory of the taper. Inflation is over 2%, and the Initial Jobless figure finally started to fall last week, although it is still elevated, over five million pre-pandemic jobs are still missing, and COVID is still persistent in many states and other countries. Chair Powell speaks on Friday.

In other news, a raft of PMIs predict a slight pullback after months of growth. PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric reports on Thursday and Friday, but otherwise there is nothing major.

CALENDAR

High volatility items in bold

Monday August 23

00:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank PMIs

08:30 Germany Markit PMIs (Mfr e65 p65.9)

09:00 Eurozone Markit PMIs (Comp e60.1 p60.2)

09:30 UK Markit Mfr/Svcs PMI

13:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

14:45 US Markit PMIs

15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Tuesday August 24

07:00 Germany GDP

15:00 US New Home Sales

Wednesday August 25

00:55 RBA Ellis speech

06:00 Japan Leading Economic Index

09:00 Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators

13:30 Durable/ND Capital Goods (NDC e0.5% p0.7%)

Thursday August 26

07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence

12:30 ECB MPC Minutes

13:30 US Core PCE QoQ

13:30 US Jobless Claims

13:30 US Q2 Prelim GDP (e6.6% p6.5%)

Friday August 27

00:30 Tokyo CPI

02:30 Aus Retail Sales (p-1.8%)

13:30 US Core PCE MoM/YoY

15:00 Michigan CSI

15:00 Fed Chair Powell speech

Week to Aug 6th

New ATHs, Dollar and yields rise and Gold slumps on strong NFP

MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY GBPCAD

LAST WEEK

Yet another week of the major indices just about ekeing out a new ATH, but not advancing over 1%. Most of the action was on Friday after a strong 943k NFP beat, where DJI and SPX hit new highs and NDX retreated.  Notably NDX was stronger over the week, with the NDX/DJI ratio making a six-month high. The NFP caused a strong spike in USD (although DXY still made an inside week). All currencies except NZD were down on the week, and Gold was particularly weak, dropping 2.5% to a five week low after the release, on combination of the dollar spike and risk on sentiment. Oil continued to retreat from the $75 long-term resistance. US 10-year yields were up on the week.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The biggest mover this week was NKY, up 1.97%. The top forex mover was EURNZD up 1.39%. ETH continued sharply upwards, although BTC was flat. FANGs were actually flatter than NDX for once.

My AUDJPY made 0.61% taking my year to date profit to 5.52% and 22/30 wins. This week I am buying GBPCAD.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

Next week is light, with only one major release, the US inflation figure on Wednesday. The estimate at 0.4% is less than half of that last month, which lowers the YoY total by 0.1% to 5.3%. The core figures are slightly lower, but still well above the Fed 2% estimate. China and Germany also report inflation, but other than UK GDP there is little else of interest. The week is also quiet on earnings with DIS the only major company reporting, although notably meme stock AMC reports Monday.

CALENDAR

Monday August 9
01:30 China CPI (YoY e0.8% p1.1%)
06:00 Germany Trade Balance (e3.1% p3.1%)
23:50 Japan Current Account

Tuesday August 10
09:00 Germany ZEW Sentiment Indicators
12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity/Labor Costs

Wednesday August 11
00:30 Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence
06:00 Germany CPI (e3.1% p3.1%)
10:00 DE10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)
12:30 US CPI (MoM e0.4% p0.9%)
18:00 US Monthly Budget Statement

Thursday August 12
01:00 Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations
06:00 UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production
06:00 UK Prelim Q2 GDP (e4.8% p-1.6%)
07:00 NIESR GDP Estimate (time approx.)
09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production
12:30 US Core PPI
12:30 US Jobless Claims

Friday August 13
14:00 Michigan CSI (e81.3 p81.2)

Week to Aug 14th

Bond yields rise all week, SPX misses ATH, Gold Rally reverses

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL GBPCAD

We have been saying for weeks that the action at the moment is not in equities and so it was proven this week, with indices consolidating, with the exception of NKY which followed the move down in JPY, and perhaps was attractive as a growth market, as SPX came close to new highs, fully erasing the COVID crash. Indeed the historically weaker DJIA was the best performer. The main news was a reversal in bonds, with yields rising all week, but particularly on Tuesday when a 6bp spike caused a notable fade in Gold (-5.4%) and Bitcoin (-4.23%). As we have also said before, the effect cannot be seen so easily in DXY itself, as the problems affecting the dollar are affecting other currencies as well. 

Next week’s scheduled news is routine again, but the earnings pause is over, and the retail sector reports this week, starting with WMT on Tuesday. The FOMC minutes are published on Wednesday, and all eyes will be on yields and Gold to determine whether the reversals are confirmed. Also, the Democratic National Convention starts on Monday, the official start of the campaign. (The GOP are next week). Joe Biden’s speeches will clearly be scrutinised both in style and substance.

Mon Aug 10

Today saw good news in that the President signed an executive order expanding COVID relief, but China tensions rose as Beijing sanctions 11 US senators and officials. The net result was a weak rally, with the rotation out of tech into industrials that we have seen recently. DJIA was up 1.3% whereas NDX was down 0.49%. Oil was up slightly, in line. The haven trio (Gold, Bonds and JPY) dipped very slightly, although this may have been driven by an uptick in DXY (+0.23%) continuing Friday’s reversal. It was all weak, with GBP and CAD outperforming.

Tuesday August 11

Sentiment was positive to open today, on news of a possible Russian vaccine. However later skepticism, and announcement from the Senate that there had been no progress on the latest COVID package prevented SPX from making a new all-time high (it reached 3380, 0.38% away) as markets tumbled sharply into the close. Again we saw industrial outperformance with NDX falling 1.3% more than DJIA. Oil fell in line. European markets closed earlier and were therefore up

The earlier rally finally broke the inexorable rise in Gold which tumbled 5.7%, its worst day for 7 years (Silver fell 15%, its worst day since the 2008 crisis), as yields rose 6%. The dollar was only slightly up, but JPY was the strongest currency of the day. NZD was particularly weak as coronavirus was detected after several weeks of no new cases.

Wednesday August 12

The mood was reversed today after the US CPI strong beat (double the figures expected). In a clear risk-on day, helped by dip buyers, NDX outperformed, up 2.1%, and SPX exceeded the Feb 19 closing all-time high, and came within 5.63 points (0.17%) of the intraday high of the same day. Oil was up 2.48%, and only JPY was down against a notably weaker dollar. Despite risk-on, yields advanced again and Gold was up, a bounce from Tuesday’s sharp sub-$2000 fall.

Thursday August 13

News today was a beat on Jobless Claims, but another day of stimulus deadlock. Another day of NDX outperformance saw the tech index slightly up and SPX and DJIA slightly down (so no new high) on what was generally a flat day, although European indices fell, notably FTSE on GBP performance following Wednesday’s GDP beat. Oil slipped slightly, and the dollar was directionless, with AUD, NZD, and JPY down, but EUR, GBP and CAD up. Gold continued its bounce back and yields continued to climb. This week, these assets are being driven by a longer-term trend as the dollar flattens.

Friday August 14

Poor Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures triggered a sell-off in the European morning, although this recovered in the US session, to produce the oft-seen pattern of recovery after the European close. FTSE was down sharply on another GBP rally (which came off, when London closed!). So US markets were flat overall, and closed another consolidating weekk. All US and European indices had larger daily moves than their total for the week. The dollar faded again, this time across the board, as the yields rally stalled, and Bonds were flat on the day. Gold also came off slightly, as did Oil.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENTEuropean and US indices consolidated this week, but the picture was completely different on NKY which was our largest index mover, up 4.29%. The weakest currency was NZD and the strongest was CAD. Selling NZDCAD would have made 1.98%. Yet another week where ETH advanced but BTC was flatter than forex, and a very mixed performance from FANGs.

Selling NZDUSD for a second week paid off, making 1.05% and my running total 7.91% (28 weeks, 13 wins). I think GBP is probably overextended and CAD’s recent strength looks like it will go another week, so I will sell GBPCAD this week.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• DNC due to confirm Biden/Harris
• Retail earnings phase
• OpEx on Friday
• UK, EU and Canada inflation

Monday August 17 

The Democratic National Convention starts today, where Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be confirmed as candidates. Traders will be watching all week for signs of policy given that Biden is the front runner in the polls.

23:50 Japan Prelim Q2 GDP (e-7.6% p-0.6%) (Sun)

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY)(Jun)

Tuesday August 18 

Retail earnings season opens today with DJIA components WMT and HD reporting before the bell. Like yesterday, macro news is thin.

01:30 RBA Meeting Minutes

08:00 Fed Brainard speech

12:30 US Housing Starts/Building Permits

23:50 Japan Imports/Exports/TB

Wednesday August 19 

A raft of inflation data today, and earnings from many SPX component retailers. Tech giant NVDA reports after the bell. Also important are the FOMC minutes from the last meeting.

06:00 UK CPI (YoY Jul e0.7% p0.6%)

06:30 UK CPI MoM

09:00 Eurozone CPI

12:30 Canada BoC CPI

18:00 FOMC Minutes

Thursday August 20 

A lot of low-level economic releases today, with Jobless Claims being the most important. Chinese giant BABA reports before the bell.

06:00 Germany PPI

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey

10:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey – Orders

11:30 ECB MPC Minutes

12:30 US Jobless Claims

12:30 Philly Fed Mfr Survey (Aug)

16:00 BoC Beaudry speech

23:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank Prelim PMIs (Aug)

23:30 Japan National CPI

Friday August 21 

Today is August option expiration date, so additional volatility may be seen. European PMIs dominate the early day. Agricultural proxy DE reports before the bell.

06:00 UK Retail Sales

07:30 Germany Prelim Markit Mfr PMI (Aug e52.5 p51.0)

08:00 Eurozone Prelim Markit Composite PMI (Aug e54.7 p54.9))

08:30 UK Prelim Markit Svcs PMI (Aug e57.0 p56.5)

12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM Jun p24.5%)

13:45 US Markit Prelim PMIs (Aug)

14:00 US Existing Home Sales

14:00 Eurozone Prelim Consumer Confidence

Week to Aug 7th

Strong NFP after weak ADP, Dollar slides slows down, Gold over $2,000

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL NZDUSD

In a quiet vacation season week which saw Microsoft agree to buy TikTok, some progress on the next COVID-19 stimulus package and a strong NFP beat despite a poor ADP print, equities rose gently, with a new NDX high, the dollar decline slowed down, bonds consolidated, and the only notable move was to a new all-time for Gold.

Next week does not suggest any big moves either. Earnings season is still paused until the retail phase next week. We have inflation reports from China, Germany and the US, and jobs reports from the UK and Australia, but there is nothing on the calendar to suggest anything other than consolidation. SPX is only 1.26% from its all-time high (whereas DJIA is 7.78% away),and it may well get there. Of more interest is USD which is no longer oversold. Will it resume its journey down—the 10-year yield may give us the answer.

Mon Aug 3

Friday’s late rally continued into the new month after the important ISM Manuf PMI beat. The mood had been set earlier in Europe where the German PMI also beat and DAX outperformed the US indices. Microsoft’s TikTok deal helped NDX advance 1.47% to a new ATH. Oil moved up in line The dollar and Gold were both almost flat today, despite an early rally in the latter producing a new ATH of $1984.66.

Tuesday August 4

The House of Representatives reported “productive discussions” on the latest coronavirus stimulation package and market continued to rise. Yesterday NDX led, but today it was DJIA, although gains were more modest overall. Oil was up in line. Gold broke through the $2,000 barrier for the first time, and yields fell to a new low as the dollar fell again across the board. Bonds and Gold are reacting to the dollar much more than to the equity risk mood.

Wednesday August 5

A third day up for stocks, again led by DJIA which rose 1.4%, over double the move of SPX and NDX, helps by DIS, up 8.8% on earnings, and made a ‘Golden Cross’ as the 50-day moving average moved ahead of the 200-day. Oil rose in line. The dollar fell for a third day after, after the big miss on ADP jobs, pushing Gold up to a new high of $2,040. Yields were back up 4bp today, possibly reacting to equities, but more likely just part of a normal zigzag pattern down. The VIX was down to 23, its lowest level since the COVID crisis began

Thursday August 6

A fourth day of gains, this time the focus moving back to tech stocks, with NDX outperforming and breaking 11,000 for the first time. The rally was late, leaving European indices in the red, in particular FTSE reacting to the previous day’s GBP move up. Oil pulled back slightly after three days of gains. Gold continued its amazing run hitting a new high of $2,070. Yields pulled back despite a generally flat dollar.

Friday August 7

A strong beat on the NFP print (1.76M vs 1.36M) had surprisingly little effect, although SPX and DJIA managed small gains whereas NDX pulled back slightly as did Oil. The effect of the NFP was seen more in USD, which added 0.7% to DXY, reducing the week’s slide to under 1%. DXY is, notably, no longer oversold on a daily basis. Yields followed the stronger dollar up. Gold took a breather, only its second red day in the last 16, and pulled back $27, to close just under 3% up for the week.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

Smaller moves than we have seen recently, with DJIA at +3.8% the top index mover. A much flatter forex market than usual, with AUDNZD up 0.57% as the top mover. Bitcoin went back to sleep, whereas Ethereum keeps on climbing. FANGs were quite variable with only AMZN and FB outperforming.

My own call to sell NZDUSD wasn’t too bad. NZD was the weakest currency, and we made 0.32% making my running total 6.86% (27wks 12wins). I still think the dollar is going to reverse back up next week (It tried towards the end of the week) so I will repeat my position and sell NZDUSD again.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• US, China, Germany inflation
• UK & Australia Unemployment
• Earnings pause continues
• Low volatility expected

Monday August 10

Another quiet Monday with no US or European significant releases. Markets are closed in Japan, Singapore and South Africa.

01:30 China CPI (YoY e2.6% p2.5%)

21:00 NZ House Price Index

23:01 UK BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales

Tuesday August 11

The UK Unemployment and Claimant Count change is the only key news today. The UK furlough scheme, where people did not lose their jobs means the figure is much less severe than other countries.

08:30 UK Unemployment Rate (3M)(Jun) (e4.2% p3.9%)

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment(Aug)

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation/Economic Sentiment(Aug)

12:30 US PPI

Wednesday August 12

The main news today in this quiet week is the US inflation print. Markets are closed in Thailand.

02:00 RBNZ Rate Decision/Statement

03:00 RBNZ Press Conference

06:00 UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production

06:00 UK Prelim Q2 GDP (QoQ e-20.2% p-2.2%)

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production

10:00 Germany 10Y Bond Auction 

10:00 UK NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)(time approx.)

12:30 US Core CPI (YoY e1.2% p1.2%, MoM e0.2% p0.2%)

18:00 US Monthly Budget Statement (Jul)

Thursday August 13

Save any shocks in the US Jobless Claims, another quiet day for news. There are rate decisions in Mexico and Egypt.

01:30 Aus NFP/Unemp (NFP e40k p211k, Unemp e7.8% p7.4%)

06:00 Germany CPI (e0.0% p0.0%)

12:30 US Jobless Claims

22:30 Business NZ PMI(Jul)

Friday August 14

The quiet week closes with US and China Retail Sales. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is still well down. Markets are closed in Pakistan.

02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY e0.3% p-1.8%)

09:00 Eurozone Prelim Q2 GDP (QoQ e-12.1% p-12.1%)

12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM e1.7% p7.5%)

13:15 US Industrial Production (MoM)(Jul)

14:00 US Prelim Michigan CSI (e71.5 p72.5)