Saturday 7 August 2021

Week to Aug 6th

New ATHs, Dollar and yields rise and Gold slumps on strong NFP


Yet another week of the major indices just about ekeing out a new ATH, but not advancing over 1%. Most of the action was on Friday after a strong 943k NFP beat, where DJI and SPX hit new highs and NDX retreated.  Notably NDX was stronger over the week, with the NDX/DJI ratio making a six-month high. The NFP caused a strong spike in USD (although DXY still made an inside week). All currencies except NZD were down on the week, and Gold was particularly weak, dropping 2.5% to a five week low after the release, on combination of the dollar spike and risk on sentiment. Oil continued to retreat from the $75 long-term resistance. US 10-year yields were up on the week.


The biggest mover this week was NKY, up 1.97%. The top forex mover was EURNZD up 1.39%. ETH continued sharply upwards, although BTC was flat. FANGs were actually flatter than NDX for once.

My AUDJPY made 0.61% taking my year to date profit to 5.52% and 22/30 wins. This week I am buying GBPCAD.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

Next week is light, with only one major release, the US inflation figure on Wednesday. The estimate at 0.4% is less than half of that last month, which lowers the YoY total by 0.1% to 5.3%. The core figures are slightly lower, but still well above the Fed 2% estimate. China and Germany also report inflation, but other than UK GDP there is little else of interest. The week is also quiet on earnings with DIS the only major company reporting, although notably meme stock AMC reports Monday.


Monday August 9

01:30 China CPI (YoY e0.8% p1.1%)
06:00 Germany Trade Balance (e3.1% p3.1%)
23:50 Japan Current Account

Tuesday August 10
09:00 Germany ZEW Sentiment Indicators
12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity/Labor Costs

Wednesday August 11
00:30 Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence
06:00 Germany CPI (e3.1% p3.1%)
10:00 DE10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)
12:30 US CPI (MoM e0.4% p0.9%)
18:00 US Monthly Budget Statement

Thursday August 12
01:00 Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations
06:00 UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production
06:00 UK Prelim Q2 GDP (e4.8% p-1.6%)
07:00 NIESR GDP Estimate (time approx.)
09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production
12:30 US Core PPI
12:30 US Jobless Claims

Friday August 13
14:00 Michigan CSI (e81.3 p81.2)

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