New multi-year highs for USDJPY and yields. Tech recovers.
MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL AUDJPY
LAST WEEK
With a stalemate in Ukraine, this week’s moves were much more muted, although US indices made post-invasion highs, although DAX did not, despite the EU PMI beats, although European consumer confidence dropped by the second largest amount on record. The dollar (DXY) had an inside week, as did the euro and Gold. The yen continued to fall with USDJPY making highs not seen since Dec 2015. AUDJPY hit highs last seen in August 2015, and both AUD and NZD made new 2021 highs against the dollar. Yields broke 2.4%, a new three year high, after Fed Powell's remarks preparing markets for 50bp increases. Oil continued to consolidate after the high two weeks ago, still managed to post an 8% weekly gain, such is the current volatility.
WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
The biggest index mover was oversold NKY, up 4.93%. The top forex mover was again AUDJPY up 3.59%. The pair has risen 6.93% in two weeks. Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied again although less than last week. Tech outperformed again with all FANGs except NFLX up in line.
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Last week's EURCAD long position lost 1.48%, which means I am ahead 4.08% this year, with 6/11 (54.5%) wins. This week I am banking on AUDJPY reversing and shorting it.
Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.
NEXT WEEK
A new month and quarter, so the main event is NFP on Friday. Give the Ukrainian stalemate, this event may have more significance than last month. Fed Williams speaks this week, and traders will be alert to rate hike clues before earnings takes over next week. Germany and the Eurozone report inflation this week, both estimating a small increase. We also have US GDP (equal to inflation so zero real growth), and also UK GDP (well below inflation).
CALENDAR (all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)
Monday March 28
11:00 BoE Governor Bailey speech
23:30 Japan Jobs/UnEmp
Tuesday March 29
00:30 Aus Retail Sales
06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence
13:00 Fed Williams speech
13:00 Housing/Home Price Indices
23:50 Japan Retail Sales
Wednesday March 30
08:10 BoE Broadbent speech
09:00 Eurozone Business Climate/Consumer Confidence
12:00 Germany CPI (e5.4% p5.5%)
12:15 US ADP (e400k p475k)
12:30 US PCE QoQ
12:30 US Q4 GDP (YoY e7.1% p7.0%)
23:50 Japan Ind Production
Thursday March 31
00:30 Aus Building Permits
01:00 China PMIs (Mfr e49.8 p50.2)
06:00 UK Q4 GDP (QoQ e1.0% p1.0%)
06:00 Germany Retail Sales (e2.4% p10.3%)
07:55 Germany Unemployment
08:00 OPEC Meeting
09:00 Eurozone Unemployment
12:30 US PCE MoM & YoY
12:30 US Jobless Claims
12:30 US Personal Income/Spending
12:30 Canada GDP
13:00 Fed Williams speech
13:45 Chicago PMI
21:30 Aus AiG Mfg Index
23:50 Japan Tankan Mfr Indices
Friday April 1
01:45 China Caixin Mfr PMI
07:55 Germany Markit Mfr PMI
08:30 UK Markit Mfr PMI
09:00 Eurozone CPI (Core 2.8% p2.7%)
12:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e450k p678k)
13:30 Canada Markit Mfr PMI
13:45 US Markit Mfr PMI
14:00 US ISM PMI (e58.5 p58.6)