Sunday 26 July 2020

Week to Jul 26th

Second week of tech underperformance, Gold all-time high, Dollar 22-month low

In a week that saw some promise on the COVID vaccine front, and generally positive earnings, gains were capped by a rise in new Jobless Claims, and a further spat between China and US, who told the People’s Republic to close one of their US missions, claiming it was used for spying. COVID cases in the US are still rising, and this week, deaths started to rise again, which may have had a effect mid-week. Stocks had a lambda (inverted V) shaped week, and tech underperformance continued. The dollar slid all week, with DXY closing below 94.50 for the first time since Sep 2018, and possibly linked to this, Gold hit an all-time closing high, finishing above $1,900 for the first time.

Next week sees the Fed rate decision meeting, coming at a time of 22-month low for the dollar, and an all-time high for Gold, and of course earnings from tech giants AAPL, AMZN and GOOGL, coming when the tech/industrial ratio is at all-time highs, although faltering. We are also seeing a potential second wave of COVID deaths in the US. There is therefore potential for swings in sentiment, and thus bigger moves than we have seen so far this summer.
Mon Jul 20
PFE and BNTX reported further positive vaccine progress today, and the resistance to 3235 in SPX was broken today. Also there was a sharp reversal in the DJI/NDX ratio, with tech outperforming again, helped by a near-8% rally in AMZN after a broker upgrade. Oil and other indices followed, expect for FTSE which was slightly down after a strong GBP rally. The dollar was down across the board, except for JPY, which was up, along with bonds and Gold, showing, as we have said before, the fragility of this rally. IBM beat estimates after the bell and shares rose 6% AH.

Tuesday July 21
Stocks continued up today on news of EU agreement for a pandemic fund and Senate backing of another round of direct payments, but there was a turnaround again, with tech out of favour. The German-Italian bond spread closed to its lowest for four months today. Oil was up in line. Once again the dollar was down across the board, meaning that paradoxically the haven trio (Gold, JPY, Bonds) were all up. VIX was slightly higher as well. Once again FTSE was slightly down on strong GBP. This is not a sentiment thing, many FTSE companies are traded in the US, in dollars.

Wednesday July 22
A third day of gains, and a third day of tech underperformance, after another good day of earnings, and a rise in PFE on vaccine hopes, but with concerns about US-China relations, after the US closed the Houston Chinese Consulate after spying allegations.This caused a morning dip in SPX (and a brief dollar spike), which recovered later. Other indices were largely flat, with low volatility. Oil dipped after the strong rise on Tuesday. The dollar was down again, with only JPY falling further, in line with equities so far this week. Gold and bonds however, remained stubbornly up.

Thursday July 23
Todays Initial Jobless Claims went in the wrong direction today, and COVID cases and death had been rising all week. Equity markets pulled back across the board, and Oil was down in line. The dollar had a fourth day down, and once again the haven trio were all up. MSFT and TSLA beat estimates after the bell, but were still down on the day.

Friday July 24
The Chinese consulate closure, and disappointing forward guidance from INTC the night before (the stock was down over 16%) meant, despite the PMI beats, it was another down day on indices to complete this lambda (inverted-V) shaped week. Gold made a sixth straight day up and hit an all-time closing high of $1,900. DXY had a sixth down day, and closed 94.35, its lowest level since September 2018. Bonds finally reversed down after rising all week. Oil was flat on the day.

A general flat week on indices, with notable rotation out of tech into industrials. The biggest mover was FTSE, down 2.65% on a stronger pound. The biggest forex mover in this quite week was EURUSD, up 2%. Cryptos showed a little bit of life, particularly in ETH, and with the exception of AMZN, FANGS underperformed NDX. FANGS are nearly always more volatile than the underlying index, a consequence of their weight.

My own call, to sell GBPCAD failed. The pair gained 0.59%, making my running total 6.57% (25wks 11 wins). The strong dollar move makes things difficult to see again, but I will take a chance and buy CADJPY.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • Earnings season continues
  • AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN report
  • Fed Rate Decision
  • Final week of month

Monday July 27
As usual Monday is quiet, with only the Durable Goods and Non-Defence Capital Goods ex Aircraft print of importance, so once again we look to COVID news and China tensions to set the tone.

00:00 RBA Kent speech
08:00 Germany IFO – Business Climate/Assessment (Jul)
12:30 US Durable/Capital Goods (Cap e1.5% p1.6%)
22:45 NZ Total Filled Jobs (Jun)

Tuesday July 28
Earnings season continues today with DJIA components PFE, MCD and MMM before the bell, and AMD and V after the market closes. There is no significant macroeconomic news. Markets are closed in Thailand.

13:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
14:00 US Consumer Confidence

Wednesday July 29
The Fed rate decision today has a 0.25% hold 100% priced in according to the CME FedWatch tool, however the report remarks, press conference and dot-plot will be watched closely, especially as the dollar is at somewhat of a pivot point. Key earnings today before the bell are BA and GE, with FB reporting after the close.

01:30 RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ)(Q2) (e0.1% p0.5%))
14:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM)(Jun)
18:00 Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)
18:30 FOMC Press Conference
23:50 Japan Retail Sales

Thursday July 30
Earnings before the bell include DJIA component PG, but the most important point in the whole season comes after the bell tonight with AAPL, AMZN and GOOGL all reporting. The second quarter GDP is going to be very bad, but exactly how bad many also influence markets. Exchanges are closed today and tomorrow in Turkey, and many Islamic countries for Eid Al-Adha.

06:00 Germany 20Q2 Prelim GDP (QoQ e-11.2% p-2.3%)
07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate/Change s.a.(Jul)
08:00 Eurozone Economic Bulletin
09:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence/Business Climate/Unemployment Rate
12:00 Germany CPI (YoY e0.4% p0.8%)
12:30 US Prelim PCE (QoQ)
12:30 US 20Q2 Prelim GDP (Annualised -35% p-5%, QoQ e+1.2% p+1.6%))
12:30 US Jobless Claims (Jul 24)
23:30 Japan Jobs/Unemp
23:50 Japan Industrial Production

Friday July 31
The end of the week and month will probably be influenced by the previous evening’s big three tech earnings, and of course there may be general end-of-month volatility. A few more companies report before the bell: XOM CAT CVX and MRK. Markets are closed today in Switzerland.

01:00 China PMIs (Mfr e51.0 p50.9)
06:00 Germany Retail Sales (YoY)(Jun) (e1.4% p3.8%)
09:00 Eurozone Prelim CPI (Core e0.7% p0.8%)
09:00 Eurozone 20Q2 Prelim GDP (QoQ e-12.0% p-3.6%)
12:30 US Core PCE MoM and YoY
12:30 Canada 20Q2 Prelim GDP
13:45 Chicago PMI
14:00 Michigan CSI (Jul)

Sunday 19 July 2020

Week to Jul 17th

Earnings season opens, Shift out of tech, Gently declining dollar

This week saw positive news, both on the vaccine front, and in comments from Fed Governor Brainard (admittedly a known dove) suggest even further stimulus. However, the COVID cases keep rising, and the net result was a fairly flat week with SPX attempting and failing to break 3235 twice, and NDX down. The pullback in the tech/industrial ratio is the most noticeable feature of this week’s market, and it was accelerated by NFLX missing on earnings, against beats by JPM, C and GS, the latter very strongly. The ratio has recently overshot the 2000 bubble level, had to happen at some point, although there is no reason it cannot go higher, as the NDX/SPX PE differential is nowhere near 2000 levels, indeed if anything it has fallen.

The ECB said nothing news, and the dollar chart was extremely similar to last week, slow and slight classic waves to the downside, and bonds and Gold were in consolidation at their current elevated level. JPY also consolidated and posted a flat week, as did Oil.

Next week sees more of earnings season, with the main event being MSFT and TSLA reporting late on Wednesday. The fact that Canadian inflation and a PMI batch on Friday are the main events tells you how light the week is. Earnings and COVID news should therefore set the tone.

Mon Jul 13
After rallying earlier in the day on vaccine hopes from BNTX (up 20%) and DJIA stock PFE, markets sold off sharply in the US afternoon session, possibly on news of a new closedown in California, but also a rejection of the previous post-COVID high of 3235 from Jun 8th. Oil fell in line. Gold and bonds were up, but not JPY which was down, despite a general flat dollar (the JPY move was matched by a GBP fade).

Tuesday July 14
Indices rebounded with DJIA outperforming NDX, as JPM and C beat estimates. But banks themselves were not in favour, it was the archetypal industrial CAT that was the best mega-cap performer, up 4.83%. The dollar fell some more, down across the board, and yields and Oil were up in line, although Gold was up slightly.

Wednesday July 15
Markets were up again today after a strong earnings beat by GS, more positive vaccine news from MRNA (up 7% and 16% at one point), There was a call by Fed Brainard for more stimulus, although Lael Brainard is a known dove, this was still a positive mover. Once again there was strong divergence against tech, with NDX only up 0.11%. Oil was up in line. Gold and Bonds were flat, and the dollar once again fell across the board.

Thursday July 16
We had a reversal today after a sharp pullback in the China 300 index (4.75% its worst day since February), and a  miss in the Initial Jobless Claims figure, but also linked to the 3235 post-COVID high, which was reached on Jun 8, and again yesterday. Despite earnings beats from JNJ and BAC, SPX was down 0.34%, and for a fourth day NDX underperformed, down 0.70%. NFLX missed on earnings after the bell, was was down 10% in after-hours trading, although the stock is not heavily weighted on NDX, so the index move was modest.

And for a fourth day, yields and Oil were up in line, and Gold wasn’t! The dollar also bounced back up (evenly across all currencies), meaning for a fourth day, the yen did not move inversely to indices. This is interesting in a rare week where industrials outperform tech, perhaps those industrials can be seen as the safe haven.

Friday July 17
In the absence of significant earnings releases, the final day of the week was fairly flat, but again with SPX outperforming NDX. Both indices failed to advance even 1%, and DJIA posted a red candle. Haven assets were mixed, with JPY and Gold up, but bonds slipping slightly. The dollar gave up Thursday’s gains, and Oil was slightly down. A directionless day to end a fairly directionless week, as seen in the total flat Fed Funds Rate chart. The only major trend was the shift away from tech.

Europe outperformed this week, with DAX the strongest index. The top forex mover was EURGBP up 1.68%. Cryptos continued to stay flat, BTC now only moves like any currency, and FANGS noticeably underperformed, even more so than NDX as a whole. with NFLX and AMZN (the two with sky-high P/E ratios) hit the hardest.

A better week for my forex call. I managed to pick the best mover EURGBP, adding the 1.68% to my running total gives gains of 7.16% (24wks 11 wins). This week, the picture is not much clearer, but CAD looks the strongest and GBP the weakest, so I will sell GBPCAD.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • Second week of earnings
  • Emphasis on tech
  • Canada inflation
  • PMIs on Friday

Monday July 20
As is often the case, news is light today. Traditional DJIA bellwether IBM (although less so these days) reports after the bell. Markets are closed in Colombia.

23:50 BoJ MPC Minutes (Sun)
23:50 Japan Imports/Exports/TB
01:30 PBoC Interest Rate Decision (e3.85% hold)
06:00 Germany PPI
15:10 BoE Haldane speech
15:10 BoE Tenreyro speech
23:30 Japan National CPI

Tuesday July 21
Again, little scheduled news in this holiday season. DJIA heavyweight KO reports before the bell.

01:30 RBA Meeting Minutes
02:30 RBA Governor Lowe speech
08:30 UK PSBR
12:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun)
12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM May e21% p19.1%)

Wednesday July 22
A third day of uneventful news, means the key event comes after the bell, with NDX stalwart and 11.1% weight MSFT and recent market darling TSLA (now no 7 and 2.58% weight) reporting. TSLAs recent price moves have been quite amazing, rising 320% in four months.

00:30 Aus Westpac Leading Index (MoM)(Jun)
01:30 Australia Retail Sales
12:30 Canada CPI (BoC Core YoY e0.9% p0.7%)
13:00 US Housing Price Index (MoM)(May)
14:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM)(Jun)

Thursday July 23
Jobless Claims is the first important US macro print in this quiet week, and another large NDX component (no 8 by weight) INTC reports after the bell. Markets are closed in Japan for Marine Day.

01:30 Aus NAB Business Confidence
06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey(Aug)
11:00 BoE Haskel speech
12:30 US Jobless Claims
22:45 NZ Imports/Exports/TB (Jun)
23:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank Mfr PMI

Friday July 24
The Eurozone and German PMIs are expected to cross 50 today, the line between expansion and contraction. The US is already there of course. AXP reports before the bell. Markets are closed in Japan for Sports Day, which would have been the date of the Olympic opening.

06:00 UK Retail Sales
07:30 Germany Markit Mfr Prel PMI (e48.3 p45.2)
07:30 Germany Markit Composite Prel PMI (e50.3 p47.0)
07:30 Eurozone Markit Composite Prel PMI (e51.1 p48.5)
08:30 UK Markit Services Prel PMI (e51.0 p47.1)
13:45 US Markit PMIs
14:00 US New Home Sales

Saturday 11 July 2020

Week to July 10th

US COVID cases rising, NDX outperforms to ATH, Gold hits 9-year high


This week there was no doubt that new highs in COVID cases, greater than the April high, are hitting the US, and South America, and after a brief rally on Monday, the trend was flat, the exception being NDX which continued to rise, diverging substantially from other markets. It is as though a Fed wall of money has to go somewhere, and tech is the only candidate, as it has been for the last ten years.

The dollar has had a whipsaw V-shaped week, trending slightly down but  helped by an equally weak euro, and a positive Jobless Claims report. Gold made a new 9-year high, showing the fragility of the rally.

Next week is much busier on the data front. We have rate decisions from the ECB, BoJ and BoC, and plenty of other data. But more importantly, a crucial earnings season starts where we will see the full effect of COVID on a quarter. As always JPM and Citi lead the way on Tuesday, but with AA, UNH, NFLX and JNJ following, we will get a wider picture in several sectors.

Mon Jul 6
Starting in Asia with the CSI300 up 5.7%, markets rallied today, with tech leading, and lockdown favourites AMZN and NFLX making all-time highs, the former going above $3,000 for the first time. This was despite reports of coronavirus surging globally. The dollar continued its pattern from last week, falling further. Gold was up slightly, but bonds and Oil were fairly flat.

Tuesday July 7
The six day equity rally came to an end today, as US COVID cases continued to rise, with no further drug or vaccine news. SPX was down 1.08%, NDX slightly less so. USD was up across the board, but less so against JPY, and haven assets Gold and bonds were up. Oil was down in line.

Wednesday July 8
After fading earlier in the day, markets rallied into the US close (meaning Europe and Asia closed red), despite further increases in new US COVID-19 cases. Once again, NDX significantly outperformed, with AAPL, which is a heavyweight in all three indices hitting an all-time high. Oil was up in line. The dollar fell more sharply today, down across the board, and Gold was up in line, breaking the $1,800 barrier for the first time in nearly nine years, despite the green equity day. Bonds were slightly down in line.

Thursday July 9
A fourth turnaround day saw SPX and DJIA slip, as Florida reported the biggest single day jump in new cases since the start of the pandemic. However, the wall of money continued instead to buy NDX. An earnings miss by WBA and a 3.3% rally in AMZN meant a 2.21% variance in NDX and DJIA. NDX has now outperformed DJI by 36.28% since the beginning of the year. The dollar reversed back up today, against all currencies except JPY which was up along with bonds in line with the equity fade. Gold however retreated, possibly hitting short stops but held the $1,800 level. Oil was down in line.

Friday July 10
Yet another turn today, as markets shot up on another positive report about remdesivir (although GILD only rose 2%). German firm BNTX was up 7% on news that their vaccine candidate might be available in December. There was a small shift back out of tech, with airlines up, and DJIA beating NDX by 0.68%. Oil was up, and Gold and bonds were down in line, however a weak dollar prevented USDJPY from falling.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • Earnings Season opens
  • ECB, Canada, Japan Rate Decisions
  • Heavy macro week
  • Option expiration

Monday July 13

A quiet day before the earnings storm, with only BoE Governor Andrew Bailey by webinar on “LIBOR: Entering the Endgame”. There is a rate decision in Romania.

02:00 China FDI (time approx.)

15:30 BoE Governor Bailey speech

18:00 Monthly Budget Statement (Jun)

Tuesday July 14

Earnings season starts today, with as always JPM first out of the gate, swiftly followed by fellow banks C and WFC, and airline DAL, all before the opening bell. SNB Governor Jordan speaks today at 1330. Banks but not markets are closed in France for Bastille Day. There is a rate decision in Poland.

03:00 China Imports/Exports/TB (time approx.)

06:00 UK GDP (May p-20.4%)

06:00 Germany CPI (YoY e0.5% p0.8%)

08:00 ECB Bank Lending Survey

09:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul e60, p63.4))

12:30 US CPI (YoY Core e1.3% p1.2%)

Wednesday July 15

Earnings today come from Dow giants GS and UNH before the bell. There are also rate decisions in the Philippines and Colombia. Markets are closed in Turkey.

00:30 Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence (Jul)

01:00 Aus HIA New Home Sales (MoM)(May)

03:00 BoJ Rate Decision/Statement (e-0.1% hold)

06:00 UK CPI (YoY Jun e0.5% p0.5%)

06:00 BoJ Press Conference

08:00 BoE Tenreyro speech

10:00 Germany 10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)

13:15 US Industrial Production (MoM)(Jun)

14:00 BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)

15:00 BoC MPC Minutes

15:15 BoC Press Conference

18:00 Fed Beige Book

22:45 NZ CPI (YoY e2.1% p2.5%)

Thursday July 16

Earnings today before the bell are from BAC and JNJ, with the first of the FANGs NFLX reporting after the close. There are also rate decisions in South Korea and Indonesia.

01:00 Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jul)

01:30 Aus NAB Business Confidence (QoQ)(Q2)

01:30 Aus NFP/UnEmp (NFP e-100k p-228k)

02:00 China 20Q2 GDP (QoQ e-9.9% p-9.8%)

06:00 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (e4.7% p3.9%)

08:30 BoE Credit Conditions Survey(Q2)

11:45 ECB Rate Decision/Statement (e0% hold)

12:30 US Retail Sales (Control Group p11%)

12:30 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jul)

12:30 Initial Jobless Claims (p1314k)

12:30 ECB Lagarde Presser

22:30 Business NZ PMI(Jun)

Friday July 17

No significant earnings today, but it’s July option expiration, so expect additional volatility, particularly from the earnings report stocks. A special two-day EU leaders summit in Brussels (yes, physical!) starts. The topic is the EU COVID recovery package.

00:00 EU Leaders Special COVID Summit (continues Saturday)

09:00 Eurozone CPI

12:30 US Building Permits/Housing Starts

12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM May p19.1%)

14:00 Michigan CSI (e80 p78.1)

Saturday 4 July 2020

Week to July 3rd

New month, quarter, half year foreshortened for Independence Day, Risk-on all week

This week, markets ignored the clear second wave in US COVID-19 cases, and instead concentrated on the ADP and all-time record positive NFP, and perhaps some end of quarter and half-year rebalancing, and rose steadily during the four-day week, only pausing slightly in futures on Friday. Yields and Oil moves in line with markets, but haven assets JPY and Gold spent the week consolidating.

There is little news of note next week, and COVID cases, re-opening reversals, and vaccine news may dominate, in a market that seems to have lost a lot of its volatility.

  • New month, quarter, half year
  • Foreshortened for Independence Day
  • Risk-on all week
  • Fairly flat dollar

Mon Jun 29
Markets ignored COVID-19 and were cheered by news that certification flights for Boeing’s 737 Max began. BA itself rose 14.4% meaning DJIA outperformed SPX and NDX. World equity markets and Oil followed suit. The dollar had a down day, except for GBP and of course JPY, although the other haven assets (Gold and Bonds) were flat.

Tuesday June 30
With further advances today, DJIA closed its best quarter since 1987, and SPX since 1998 and NDX since 1999, all up more than 17% since Mar 31. However, all instruments other than Gold and NDX had inside months. Only FTSE turned red today after a sharp move up in GBP. The dollar was down with the exception of a flat euro, and of course JPY was down again, along with bonds. Gold bucked the trend and was up again, as did Oil, down 0.74% despite the equity rally.

Wednesday July 1
The new quarter started with mixed results today, with DJIA down 0.3% whereas SPX was up 0.5%, following an early sell-off which left European indices in the red. This was despite the latest vaccine hope drug (BNT162b1) trials added 3.2% to PFE, not enough to offset a similar drop in the heavier-weighted BA. European indices closed down. Oil managed a small advance. The haven trio were all up, suggesting risk-off mood generally, and this was against a sharply falling dollar. 

Thursday July 2
The final day of the trading week saw a fourth day of gains after the all-time record NFP report with 4.8 million new jobs, a substantial beat on the 3M estimate. All equity markets and Oil were up, particularly NDX. The dollar also rallied after early gains to close positive although the net gain was slight. However, the haven trio was more or less flat.

Friday July 3
US markets were closed today for observed Independence Day, although SPX futures came off slightly, as did world indices, and Oil. The dollar also fell slightly. Gold was flat, and bonds did not trade.

A rally in GBP saw FTSE (and NKY) end flat this week, where DAX and the US indices put in solid gains, in particular NDX, which was 5% up. The best performing pair was NZDJPY. Cryptos continued to stay flat, it is now six weeks since Bitcoin moved more than 5% in a week. A great week for FANGS which by an large even outperformed NDX.

My own instincts were never so bad. NZD was the best performer and I shorted it, losing 1.74%, nearly a quarter of my accumulated gain. 22 weeks, 10 wins, and a total of 6.09%. Forex movement isn’t clear again, so I will take a safe low-volatility pair and buy EURGBP.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • Quiet week
  • US COVID cases rising
  • RBA Rate Decision
  • Various PMIs
Monday July 6
Back to work after the 3-day weekend, and rhe services PMI today is estimated at 49.9, if it beats over 50, it will join the manufacturing sector in exhibiting post-COVID normality.  There is a rate decision in Israel. Markets are closed in Czechia and Lithuania.

01:00 Aus TD Securities Inflation
06:00 Germany Factory Orders
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY)(May)
13:45 US Markit Services/Composite PMIs (Jun)
14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) (e49.5 p45.4)
14:30 Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
22:00 NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ)(Q2)

Tuesday July 7
The Australian rate decision is today’s main news, with little significant in Europe and the US. Fed Bostic speaks at 1300. There is $46B US03 bond auction today. There is also a rate decision in Malaysia.

04:30 RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)
06:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)(May)
10:00 Germany 10-y Bond Auction (time approx.)
14:00 JOLTS Jobs Openings
14:30 NZ GDT Milk Index (time approx.)
15:00 Canada Ivey PMI
17:00 Fed Quarles speech
18:00 Fed Day and Barkin on a panel

Wednesday July 8
Focus is on Europe today, with two speeches by ECB VP Luis de Guindos. Fed Bostic also speaks again  at 1715. There is a $29B US10 auction today.

08:45 ECB De Guindos speech
09:00 EC Economic Growth Forecasts
14:00 ECB De Guindos speech

Thursday July 9
The thin news week continues, with only the Chinese inflation of note. Fed Bostic is on for a third time at 1700. Markets are closed in Brazil and Argentina.

01:30 China CPI (e2.5% p2.4%)
01:30 Aus Home Loans/Investment Lending for Homes (May)
06:00 Germany Trade Balance (May)
12:30 US Jobless Claims

Friday July 10
Canada’s jobs report comes a week after the US one this month, closing a quiet week before earnings season starts the following Tuesday, with as usual JPM, WFC and Citi out of the gate first on Tue 14th. Markets are closed in Argentina and Singapore.

12:30 US PPIProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Jun)
12:30 Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e675k p289.6k)