Friday, 28 February 2020

London Trader Show

Ed Matts and David Atherton are both presenting on Friday 28th at the London Trader Show in Hammersmith. There is still time to get a free ticket at LondonTraderShow.com, quoting the code MAXI20.

Here are the slides from the presentations



We hope to see you there.


Saturday, 22 February 2020

Week to Feb 21st


Four-day OpEx week, CV fears still present, Gold rises all week
MY CALL FOR THIS WEEK : SELL CADJPY

This Friday, 28 Feb, I will be speaking at 9.30am at the London Trader Show. You can get a free ticket by using the coupon code MATRIXTRADE.

In a shortened OpEx week, in which Apple issued a profit warning because of coronavirus, markets swung wildly on ‘good’ and ‘bad’ reports on the epidemic, rather reminiscent of phases of the trade war. The overall mood was clearly risk-off as haven assets rose all week, and even mighty USD capitulated on Friday, although this was largely due to strong PMIs lifting the euro from its support base.

Next week is expected to be more of the same, with little important news except GDP prints, as February and earnings season draws to a close.


Mon Feb 17
US markets were closed today. US futures and European indices were fairly flat, as often happens on US holidays. Also flat were Gold, Oil and Bond futures. DXY rose slightly, mainly due to a fall in ever-volatile GBP, other currencies also being flat. Japan’s GDP miss saw a small fall in JPY after a big miss in the preliminary Q4 GDP print.


Tuesday February 18
Indices were down today on a profit warning from AAPL lowering their guidance because of coronavirus (CV). Gold was up in line. It was however, a clean sweep day for USD, which rose against all currencies. The big misses in the German Economic Sentiment readings at 10:00 caused sharp drop in EUR. GBP rallied on a drop in the Claimant Count at 0930 and a positive tweet from the new Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) shortly afterwards. JPY fell on a big miss on Machinery orders. Oil and bonds were flat on the day.


Wednesday February 19
China’s National Health Commission reported a slowdown in CV cases today, and that was enough to push markets back up, with the FOMC minutes taking SPX, NDX and DAX to new all-time highs, with AAPL adding 1.4% to recover Tuesday’s losses. The dollar was up overall, but like Monday, large due to a GBP fade. EUR, CAD and Gold were up, other currencies down. JPY was sharply down, over 1.5 yen on the day, to make a 9-month high. Oil and yields were up in line with the equity move.


Thursday February 20
More CV negative sentiment returned today, with markets falling hard on the US open, pulling back from the all-time highs. Gold was up in line. However, it was a strong day for the dollar following the Fed minutes, with all currencies down. Bonds were up in line with the equity move, however Oil continued to rise.


Friday February 21
The negative CV mood returned continued today, and this time the dollar finally capitulated. Indices were down across the board, and gold, bonds and yen were up in line. The dollar receded against all currencies, and after the German PMI Manufacturing beat, the euro surged notably, reversing four days of decline to close positively for the week. Oil bucked the trend again, and fell on the day.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
The top forex trade this week was to buy CADJPY, which was up 1.83%, our pick EURNZD did well up 1.56%, so we still have a 100% success rate, and 4.16% up after picking pairs for three weeks. This week’s call is to sell the week’s strongest mover CADJPY. I try to pick crosses as they are not affected by dollar moves. All indices fell this week, with risky NDX falling the most. Cryptos also fell after several good weeks, as did FANGs with AAPL faring the worst after their profit warning.


Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • Quiet news week
  • German, Canadian and US GDP
  • HD closes DJIA earnings
  • End of the month

Monday February 24
Little news today, as we start the final week of February. It will be interesting to see if the German business confidence matches last weeks PMIs. Fed Mester (hawk, voter) speaks today. There is a rate decision in Israel. Markets are closed today and tomorrow in Brazil for Carnival.

21:45 NZD NZ Retail Sales (Sun)
02:30 CNY China Retail Sales/Ind Production (time approx.)
09:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate/Expectations
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index


Tuesday February 25
The most important news today is the German GDP. The retail phase of earnings season continues with HD and M reporting before the bell. There is an important EU/UK meeting to discuss the Brexit framework. There is a rate decision in Hungary.

07:00 EUR Germany 19Q4 final GDP (QoQ e0.0% p0.0%)
14:00 USD US Housing/Home Price Indices
15:00 USD US Consumer Confidence
17:45 CAD BoC Lane speech
20:00 USD Fed Clarida speech


Wednesday February 26
Another quiet day with little news. ECB President Lagarde speaks in Germany.

15:00 USD US New Home Sales
21:45 NZD NZ Imports/Exports/TB


Thursday February 27
Clearly the biggest day of the week for economic releases, the most important being the Durable Goods and inelegantly named Non-Defence Capital Goods ex Aircraft released at the same time as the second preliminary reading of US GDP at 1330. Fed Evans speaks at 1630. There is a rate decision in Hungary.

01:30 JPY BoJ Kataoka speech
10:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate (Feb)
13:30 USD US Durable/Capital Goods (Cap Goods MoM e-0.1% p-0.8%)
13:30 USD US 19Q4 Prelim GDP (YoY e2.1% p2.1%)
13:30 USD US PCE QoQ
13:30 USD US Jobless Claims
13:30 CAD Canada Current Account (Q4)
15:00 USD US Pending Home Sales
21:45 NZD NZ Total Filled Jobs
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (Core YoY e0.6% p0.7%)
23:30 JPY Japan Jobs/Unemployment
23:50 JPY Retail Trade


Friday February 28
The last day of the week and month may bring additional rotation volatility. Fed Bullard (dovish, non-voter) speaks today. All eyes will be on the polling for Super Tuesday on Mar 3rd.

08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate/Change
10:00 EUR ECB Weidmann speech
13:00 EUR Germany CPI (YoY e1.5% p1.6%)
13:30 USD US PCE MoM and YoY
13:30 CAD Canada 19Q4 GDP (QoQ e0.2% p1.3%)
14:45 USD Chicago PMI
15:00 USD Michigan CSI


This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.



Saturday, 15 February 2020

Week to Feb 14th


New all-time highs, EURGBP close lowest for 43 month, UK Chancellor resigns
MY CALL FOR THIS WEEK : BUY EURNZD

Markets shrugged off the coronavirus to make four new all-time highs, only faltering on Thursday as the death toll exceeded that of SARS, and a surprise replacement of the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer by an junior minister loyal to Johnson’s Trump-like spend, cut taxes, raise debt policy caused a sharp uptick in sterling, and NZD similar benefited by not following the global trend to cut rates, despite an overall strong dollar as Fed Chair Powell was less dovish than expected, reaffirming the data-driven approach to rate decisions.

The foreshortened coming week has no strong theme, sees British and Canadian inflation prints, and Wal-Mart leads the ‘retail phase’ of earnings season, although there is no key focus event, meaning that coronavirus sentiment is still the principal risk to the downside in a market up nearly 5% in two weeks.


Mon Feb 10
Last week’s rally continued all markets up today, particular in tech, with AMZN up 2.63%, and TSLA adding 3.1%, with no particular news, but crucially, no further coronavirus bad news. The dollar was similarly up overall, except against GBP and AUD which outperformed, both reversing from last week’s continual decline.

Gold and Oil were down in line with the stronger dollar. Yields were surprisingly slightly down.


Tuesday February 11
There was no stopping indices today, which again posted all-time highs, in the absence of US economic news. DXY had a Turnaround Tuesday after Fed Powell stressed that QE was back on the table, with currencies up, except the yen, which along with Gold and bonds pulled back in the risk-on environment, and Oil was also up in line. The only notable event today was a clear front-running of the UK GDP strong beat. The build-up in price prior to the event, lasting about 20 minutes and accelerating strongly suggest an information leak. This has happened before, and only occurs in the UK.



Wednesday February 12
A third positive day after reports that the number of new coronavirus cases had declined, and the dovish rhetoric continued from Fed Chair Powell on the second day of his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. Markets were up across the board, but the situation was less clear on the dollar, with commodity currencies CAD and AUD firmly up as gold halted its decline and posted a flat day, as did GBP. EUR continued to fall meaning DXY was up on the day. Oil finally moved off its $50 floor and added 3% on the day.


Thursday February 13
A report that the coronavirus death toll had (symbolically) now exceeded that of SARS. Maverick Fed nominee Judy Shelton ran into scepticism in her Senate hearing, and is a long way from being selected. Despite the US inflation beat at 1330, markets took a breather and pulled back early, although they recovered later, with SPX and DAX nearly flat. NKY and FTSE were well down on currency strength, JPY rising along with Gold and bonds, and Oil falling, all in line with equities. GBP rallied sharply on news that that Chancellor (Finance Minister) Javid had resigned and been replaced by a junior minister more loyal to PM Johnson’s populist spending policies. Commodity currencies AUD and CAD were flat, but the further decline of EUR, which closed at a 33-month low meant a green day for DXY. EURGBP is at a 43-month low.


Friday February 14
The rally continued to falter today, after the Retail Sales miss at 1330. SPX had made new highs in futures, but fell back down in the cash session, nevertheless closing up slightly on the day, as did DAX. Once again NKY and FTSE were well down on currency sensitivity. Earnings this week were fairly good, but the dominant factor is the coronavirus sentiment. The haven trio were comfortably up, but otherwise currencies were subdued, with EUR holding a bottom around 1.0840, and none moving more than 0.15% against USD. Oil had another spurt upwards closing above $52.



WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
This was still a risk-on week, so unsurprisingly NDX gave the best performance. The biggest currency mover was EURGBP down 2.3%. Our pick of the week buy CADJPY was only up 0.52%, but still up, the second accurate call (out of two, 100% so far). This week’s call is to buy EURNZD. ETH had a second parabolic week, adding 28.2% after 24.2% last week, an amazing 76.3% in three weeks, against a relatively pedestrian Bitcoin. FANGs had a fairly consistent week, all roughly following NDX.




Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • President’s Day 4-day OpEx week
  • UK, Canada and Eurozone inflation
  • WMT starts retail earnings
  • Large Fed roster


The foreshortened coming week has no strong theme, sees British, Eurozone and Canadian inflation prints, and Wal-Mart leads the ‘retail phase’ of earnings season, although there is no key focus event, meaning that coronavirus sentiment is still the principal risk to the downside in a market up nearly 5% in two weeks.


Monday February 17
Markets are closed in the US for Presidents Day, and in Canada for Family Day, and there is no significant news today, so markets should run on technicals.

23:50 JPY Japan 19Q4 Prelim GDP (QoQ e-0.9% p0.4%) (Sun)
11:00 EUR ECB Lane speech


Tuesday February 18
The key German sentiment report today should give us some idea about the effect of coronavirus on business confidence. WMT report before the bell, leading us into the retail part of earnings season. Retailers tend to report a couple of weeks after the other sectors.

00:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
09:30 GBP UnEmp/AHE (UnEmp e3.8% p3.8%)
10:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (e20.4 p26.7)
14:30 NZD NZ GDT Milk Index
23:50 JPY Japan Imports/Exports/TB


Wednesday February 19
Two inflation prints today, but little US news. However there are no less than five Fed speakers today,  Bostic, Barkin, Kashkari, Kaplan and Mester. Here is the useful hawk/dove chart courtesy of ITC Markets. There is a rate decision in Turkey.
09:30 GBP UK CPI
13:30 USD US Core PPI
13:30 CAD Canada CPI
19:00 USD FOMC Minutes


Thursday February 20
Another German confidence reports today, this time consumers, and it will be interesting to contrast it with Tuesday’s business confidence level. Fed Barkin speaks again today. As well as China, there are rate decisions in Indonesia and Egypt. Markets are closed in India for Maha Shivrati.

00:30 AUD Emp/UnEmp (Emp e31.0k p28.9k)
01:30 CNY PBoC Rate Decision/Statement (e4.05% p4.15%)
07:00 EUR Germany PPI/Gfk Consumer Confidence
09:30 GBP UK Retail Sales
10:30 EUR ECB De Guindos speech
12:30 EUR ECB MPC Minutes
13:30 USD Philly Fed Manuf Survey
13:30 USD US Jobless Claims
23:30 JPY Japan National CPI


Friday February 21
A rash of PMIs, and five Fed speakers again today, with vice-chair Clarida and board member Lael Brainard, along with a second showing of Bostic, Kaplan and Mester. Today is monthly option expiration date, so expect some heightened volatility. Markets will also be looking at polling for the Nevada Democratic caucus the next day. Nevada is much more diverse than Iowa or NH, and polls still show a Sanders win, with Joe Biden comfortably ahead of Pete Buttigieg.

08:30 EUR Germany Markit PMIs (Manuf e44.8 p45.3)
09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit PMIs (Composite e51.0 p51.3)
09:30 GBP UK PSBR
09:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI (e53.4 p53.9)
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI
12:00 EUR ECB Lane speech
13:30 CAD Canada Retail Sales (MoM e0.0% p0.9%)
14:45 USD US Markit PMIs
15:00 USD US Existing Home Sales
15:15 USD Fed Brainard speech
18:30 USD Fed Brainard speech


This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.



Sunday, 9 February 2020

Week to Feb 7th



Iowa Caucus surprise, Impeachment Acquittal, Virus fears subside
MY CALL FOR NEXT WEEK : BUY CADJPY


In a week where coronavirus fears subsided, former frontrunner Biden came fourth in the Iowa Caucus, and President Trump’s impeachment ended in an immediate acquittal, both equities and the dollar strongly rebounded upwards, the former to new all-time highs. Only a blowout NFP, reducing the possibility of rate cuts, and a late statement by the Fed on the coronavirus capped the enthusiasm slightly.

Next week sees Fed Chair Powell give his semi-annual ‘Humphrey-Hawkins’ testimony to the House and Senate, and we will be publishing our usual fractal. Also on the agenda is US inflation and retail sales, and a rate decision in New Zealand.


Mon Feb 3
In the absence of any further escalation of the coronavirus, the surprise beat in the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 1500 pushed the market up sharply, reversing some of Friday’s sell-off. TSLA, for no known reason jumped 20%, which was attributed to short-covering. World indices followed. USD also reversed from Friday’s selloff, and all currencies and Gold were down. Bonds were also down in line with the risk-on mood. Oil however pulled back sharply.


Tuesday February 4
News that the PBoC is loosening the Chinese economy, by cutting bank reserves requirements, and ‘fear fatigue’ send markets soaring with SPX up 1.5% and NDX up 2.1%. Airlines, which had been hit hard, rose even further, as did risk darling AAPL, as you can see in the table. The effect was also seen in Europe and Japan. Again the dollar rallied across the board, except for AUD. The yen, gold and bonds were down, in line with equities. However, oil fell again. closing below the psychologically $50 level.

Notably, TSLA rose a further 13%, and at one point hit $968 (24.23% up). This amazing performance, following ten green weeks, when the stock was $329, has been put down to short covering. President Trump delivered an upbeat State of the Union address to Congress.


Wednesday February 5
Another huge day saw DJIA up 1.68% and SPX up 1.13%, erasing the coronavirus losses completely. The mood was best expressed by NDX didn’t fare as well, only up 0.43% as the TSLA bubble burst, falling 17.2%. This was largely momentum, started in Europe with PMI beats, and continued at 1500 with a beat on the ISM Services PMI. Like stocks, the dollar rallied for a third day, although gold outperformed, as did its proxy AUD again, as the currency is strongly linked to coronavirus, and is still 5% down this year. Oil also turned up from the $50 psychological and technical support. Bonds continued to fall in line.

After the market had closed, the Senate acquitted President Trump in his impeachment, as universally expected, after they had voted down the process of calling witnesses. Some commentators say this had an effect of prolonging the rally for another day.


Thursday February 6
After the delayed Iowa Caucus results gave a narrow victory to outsider Pete Buttigieg (who is interpreted as unlikely to beat Trump), a fourth green day saw the rally top out at new all-time highs. The fact that Sanders came second and former favorite Joe Biden trailed in fourth place did not seem to worry markets.

It is notable this week how closely correlated Europe and Japan are. New highs were reached but intraday highs were made early. Oil rose in line. Another clean sweep for the dollar, with all currencies down. However both Gold and bonds reversed and rose, another sign of the rally ending.


Friday February 7
After four solid days in the same direction, today’s NFP, a blowout 225k (vs 156k estimate), but in line with the ADP print, resulted in a pullback. This could be because of the “good is bad” factor, a good number reduced the change of rate cuts, and certainly this was reflected in USD which continued to rise, although not against JPY which rose along with bonds and Gold. Oil was also down in line. However, the CME Fedwatch cut probability did not move, as you can see from the FFR Futures chart.

The other factor was a warning from the Fed that coronavirus would have an effect on the US economy. This of course had been the reason for the drop last week, but it had not been formally stated before. The Canadian NFP also beat, so there was little volatility in USDCAD.



WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
Partly due to the decline in EUR, DAX was the best performing index in a green week everywhere. My first ever tip, from last week, selling GBPAUD was not only accurate, but at 2.08%, the best forex trade of the week. The tip this week is to buy CADJPY. Cryptos were also up showing that they are not necessarily a risk-off asset, and FANGs outperformed the NDX index, with NFLX the best performer.




Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • Humphrey-Hawkins week
  • New Fed nominees
  • US, China, Germany inflation
  • Kiwi Rate Decision

Monday February 10
No US news today, as we start a week dominated by CB speakers. Markets are closed in Japan for National Foundation Day.
01:30 CNY China CPI (e4.9% p4.5%)
13:15 USD Fed Bowman speech
13:15 CAD Canada Housing Starts
20:15 USD Fed Harker speech


Tuesday February 11
Not much news today, but lots of CB speakers, the main one of course being Chair Powell’s semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. Today is the New Hampshire Democratic primary where Bernie Sanders is expected to win comfortably. Markets will be more focused on whether Joe Biden once again puts in a poor performance, and then start to do the math on a Sanders/Trump election.

09:30 GBP UK Manuf/Industrial Production
09:30 GBP UK 19Q4 Prelim GDP (e0.0% p0.4%)
10:00 EUR EC Economic Growth Forecasts
15:00 USD Fed Chair Powell House H-H Testimony
15:35 GBP BoE Gov Carney speech
17:00 GBP BoE Haskel speech
17:15 USD Fed Quarles speech
19:15 USD Fed Kashkari speech


Wednesday February 12
In Europe we have the UK government's Autumn Forecast statement, a German Bund auction, and as well as New Zealand, a rate decision in Sweden. SEK is 4.2% of the DXY basket. NDX heavyweight CSCO reports after the bell.

01:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision/Statement (e1.0% hold)
02:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
13:30 USD Fed Harker speech
15:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Senate H-H Testimony
19:00 USD US Monthly Budget Statement
19:10 NZD RBNZ Governor Orr speech


Thursday February 13
The Senate holds hearings for new Fed nominees Shelton and Waller today. Judy Shelton is interesting, she is a rate hawk, an advocate of returning to the pre-1971 gold standard, and does not believe in Fed political independence. Trump will like the last view if not the first. Waller is a close associate of James Bullard at the St Louis Fed, and shares his dovish views. There is a rate decision today in Mexico. 

00:15 CAD BoC Gov Poloz speech
00:15 AUD RBA Gov Lowe speech
07:00 EUR Germany CPI (YoY e1.6% p1.6%)
13:30 USD US CPI (Core YoY e2.2% p2.3%)
13:30 USD US Jobless Claims
21:30 NZD Business NZ PMI


Friday February 14
Important GDP prints in Europe precede US Retail Sales. Today is the deadline for UK Labour Party leadership candidates to run. Lawyer Keir Starmer is the runaway lead candidate.

02:00 CNY China NBS Press Conference
02:00 CNY China Industrial Production/Retail Sales
07:00 EUR Germany 19Q1 Prelim GDP (QoQ e0.1% p0.1%)
10:00 EUR Eurozone 19Q1 Prelim GDP (QoQ e0.1% p0.1%)
13:30 USD US Retail Sales (MoM e0.4% p0.5%)
14:15 USD US Industrial Production
15:00 USD Michigan Prelim CSI (e99.7 p99.8)




This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.




Sunday, 2 February 2020

Week to Jan 31st


Coronavirus dominates, Good tech earnings, GBP rally
MY CALL FOR NEXT WEEK : SELL GBPAUD 
Mon Jan 27
The coronavirus death toll rose over the weekend, and with China closed, European and US markets fell hard, with SPX and DJIA down 1.57% and risk-sensitive NDX down 1.57%. It was the first day in 74 that SPX fell over 1%, and the worst day of 2020. Airline shares fell particularly hard, as did Oil. The dollar fell in line, and of course Gold, Bonds and JPY were up.


Tuesday January 28
All indices were back up today, largely recovering from Monday’s drop after a beat on the Durable Goods print at 1330 and Home Price Indices 30 minutes later, and driven by tech shares, particularly AAPL in anticipation of earnings. The dollar picture was mixed with relatively small movement. Most pairs were flat, with only GBP slightly down. However, a rise in JPY along with Bonds showed the lingering worry about the virus. Gold however was firmly down and Oil was up in line with indices.


Wednesday January 29
AAPL did not disappoint and their shares rose further, although this only kept markets overall flat, with DJIA down a few points and NDX a little up, reflecting the relative weight of AAPL. There was little reaction to the Fed rate hold, but in general the market behaved like a risk-off day, with USD up against risk foreign currencies, but JPY up more, along with Gold and Bonds, and Oil was down.


Thursday January 30
Markets fell again today in early trading, leaving DAX and FTSE down, but a late rally after (despite declaring a global emergency), the WHO reported around 1930 that China had the coronavirus under control. This cause a sharp rally into the close and US markets ended up green. NKY futures were also up. This happens a lot, when there is a change in sentiment after 1630, DAX and FTSE futures tend to react, but there is not enough volume to move them to the same degree as SPX, however NKY futures (driven also by the JPY price) often does move as much as the US indices.

Currency and commodity market reaction largely followed equity risk mood. Gold, JPY and Bonds had been rising all day and then fell into the close. The former was comfortably down, the latter two flat, as was Oil which had followed the reverse profile. Otherwise it was generally an up day for USD, although DXY itself was down due to a sharp 1c rise in cable after the BoE hawkish hold (with only 2 members voting for a cut instead of 3 estimated).


Friday January 31
Today China confirmed there have been nearly 10,000 coronavirus cases with 210 dead. The Thursday rally collapsed very quickly, and DJIA plummeted over 2%, with similar sharp drops globally. Airlines fell further. The exception was AMZN up 7.4% after blowout earnings. In currencies, AUD and NZD fell as they have been doing all week (virus related), but otherwise it was a big down day for USD across the board and of course the haven trio were well up. Oil was also down in line.



WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
All indices were down but GBP strength following the hawkish BoE meant FTSE was the biggest faller, and similarly GBPNZD was the top riser, up 3.2%, the first week in 2020 we have seen a 3% major forex move. Given that GBP and AUD are overextended, I think selling GBPAUD would be a good call next week.




Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • New month
  • Non-Farm Payrolls
  • Iowa Caucus
  • AUD rate decision

Monday February 3
A new month, and traditionally the third weakest month in the markets. All eyes will be on coronavirus updates. The last of the FANGs GOOGL reports after the bell. ECB speakers today are De Guindos at 0815, and Weidmann at 1815, and Fed Bostic (non-voter) is on later in the day. There are rate decisions on TRY and MXN, the first of many exotics this week.
01:45 CNY China Caixin Manuf PMI (e51.3 p51.5)
08:55 EUR Germany Markit Manuf PMI
09:30 GBP UK Markit Manuf PMI
14:30 CAD Canada Markit Manuf PMI
14:45 USD US Markit Manuf PMI (e48.5 p47.2)
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (e48.5 p47.2)


Tuesday February 4
The big event of the day is the Australian rate decision. Also, today we will know the result of the Iowa Caucus. Biden (market-friendly) and Sanders (definitely not) are neck-and-neck so a noticeable lead by either may well move markets. Rising star DIS reports after the bell.
03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.75% hold)
15:00 USD US Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec)
15:00 NZD NZ GDT Milk Index 
21:45 NZD NZ Emp Change/UnEmp (QoQ Emp e0.3% p0.2%)


Wednesday February 5
A large raft of PMI releases today, and the ADP ‘preview’ of jobs ahead of NFP on Friday. There are rate decisions on PLN, INR and BRL. Markets and closed in New Zealand and Mexico.

01:30 AUD RBA Governor Lowe speech
01:45 CNY China Caixin Services PMI
08:55 EUR Germany Markit Composite PMI
09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit Composite PMI
09:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales
13:15 USD US ADP Employment Change
13:30 USD US Imports/Exports/Trade Balance
13:30 CAD Canada Trade Balance
14:45 USD US Markit Services/Composite PMI
15:00 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (e55.1 p55.0)
17:30 CAD BoC Wilkins speech
20:10 USD Fed Brainard speech


Thursday February 6
A quiet day on news. There is a rate decision on CZK.
00:30 AUD Aus I/E/Trade Balance
00:30 AUD Aus Retail Sales
07:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders
10:00 EUR EC Economic Growth Forecasts
13:30 USD US Jobless Claims
22:30 AUD RBA Governor Lowe speech


Friday February 7
NFP is the biggest day of the week, with a higher estimate than last month, but still below the long-term 190k level. There are rate decisions on RUB and RON.

00:30 AUD RBA MPC Statement
07:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance/Industrial Production
07:00 CNY China I/E/Trade Balance
13:30 USD US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e156k p145k)
13:30 CAD Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP p35.2k)
15:00 CAD Canada Ivey PMI


This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.