Sunday, 28 November 2021

Week to Nov 26th

Omicron scare means worst day of year on Black Friday for equities and Oil
MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY NZDJPY

LAST WEEK


After a quiet three days in the run-up to Thanksgiving, market, markets showed how extended they were by a strong collapse on Friday, the worst one day drop of 2021 for equities and Oil. Gold once again showed its unreliability as a safe haven. A flat week for copper showed how the NDX drop (more than DJI) may have been more to do with their relative overbought conditions than the COVID news. The dollar had a flat week, although JPY and bonds rallied on the equity drop. 



WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT


The biggest index mover was DAX, down 5.59%. The top forex mover was NZDJPY this week, down 3.37%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were down again, and FANGs reflected general NDX movement.




Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.



NEXT WEEK


As markets were still depressed on Friday, the COVID omicron variant is likely to depress markets as long it stays in the news. However, it is a new month and therefore NFP week. The mid-range estimate of 550k is close to the ADP figure which may change the mood, depending on course on further Omicron information. The week is heavy with Central Bank speeches including Fed Chair Powell's testimony to the Senate COVID committee on Tuesday.


Other than that, we have a raft of PMIs, including the most important ISM pair, German and European inflation, the latter's core still not exceeding 2%, and GDP from commodity pair Australian and Canada.



CALENDAR  (all times are GMT)


Monday November 29

23:50 Japan Retail Sales (Sun)

08:30 BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech

10:00 Eurozone Confidence Indicators

13:00 Germany CPI (e5.4% p4.6%)

13:30 Canada Current Account

15:00 US Pending Home Sales

19:00 BoC Governor Macklem speech

19:00 BoC Schembri speech

20:05 Fed Chair Powell speech

22:05 Fed Bowman speech

22:05 RBA Debelle speech

23:30 Japan Jobs/Unemployment

23:50 Japan Industrial Production


Tuesday November 30

00:30 Aus Building Permits (MoM)(Oct)

01:00 China PMIs (Mfr 49.6 p49.2)

08:55 Germany UnEmp Rate/Change

10:00 Eurozone CPI (Core YoY e1.9% p2.0%)

10:15 ECB Weidmann speech

13:30 Canada Q3 GDP (QoQ e2.5% p-1.1%)

14:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices

14:45 Chicago PMI

15:00 US Consumer Confidence

15:00 Fed Chair Powell testimony

18:00 Fed Clarida speech

21:30 Aus AiG Performance of Mfg Index


Wednesday December 1

00:30 Aus Q3 GDP (QoQ e-2.7% p0.7%)

01:45 China Caixin Mfr PMI

07:00 Germany Retail Sales (YoY e-2% p-0.9%)

08:55 Germany Markit Mfr PMI

09:30 UK Markit Mfr PMI

12:00 BoE Governor Bailey speech (time approx.)

13:15 US ADP (e525k p571k)

14:30 Canada Markit Mfr PMI

14:45 US Markit Mfr PMI

15:00 US ISM Mfr PMI (e61 p60.8)

19:00 Fed Beige Book


Thursday December 2

00:30 Aus Imports/Exports/TB (TB e11Bn,p12.2Bn)

10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate

13:30 US Jobless Claims

21:30 Aus AiG Performance of Construction

22:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank Svcs PMI


Friday December 3

01:45 China Caixin Services PMI

08:55 Germany Markit PMI Comp

09:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Comp

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY e1.5% p2.5%)

13:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e550k p531k)

13:30 Canada NFP/UnEmp (UnEmp p6.7%)

14:45 US Markit Svcs/Comp PMIs

15:00 US ISM Svcs PMI (e65.5 p66.7)