Sunday 29 December 2019

Week to Dec 27th


Christmas Week, Santa Rally continues, Dollar weakens

Mon Dec 23
The Santa Rally continued today and indices were generally up, despite the Capital Goods miss at 1330. In forex, gold and most currencies were up against USD, the exception being GBP which continued last week’s fade as traders remember than a fast Brexit is not necessarily a good Brexit. Oil and yields were up in line with the equity mood.


Tuesday December 24
The half-day before Christmas had no news, and the sentiment in indices and Oil continued. Forex hardly moved at all, the largest shift being a 0.14% slip in CAD. However there was a little trimming of risk with Gold adding $15 and a pullback in yields.


Wednesday December 25
All major world markets except Japan are closed for Christmas Day. NKY rose slightly and JPY fell.


Thursday December 26
Another indices rally as the US reopened, although Europe was closed for Boxing Day. In thin trading, there was a notable move up in Gold and Oil, and their proxy commodity currencies AUD and CAD. Yields slipped slightly.


Friday December 27
Another very light day due to the holidays. Markets rallied again at first today but then took a breather and pulled back to close roughly flat. Gold and Oil also paused their rallies. There was a notable move down in USD, with DXY fading over 0.5%, although this cannot be attributed to any news, more likely the move was amplified by the reduced volume. Yields fell again, this time in line with the equity pause.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
The best index, as is often the case in risk-on times was NDX, and the best forex pair was NZDJPY. Cryptos were flat despite not being tied to exchange holidays. It was AAPL and AMZN’s turn to shine this week from the FANG set.





Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • New Year Week
  • Thin Trading again
  • Triggers for sentiment switch
  • Key US PMI

Monday December 30
Markets are closed today in Australia and Russia, and Germany closes early. Thin trading means the news may generate outsized moves.

07:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales
14:45 USD Chicago PMI
15:00 USD US Pending Home Sales


Tuesday December 31
Markets are closed in Australia, Russia, Japan and Germany, and Switzerland and Spain have a half-day.
The final day of the month, quarter and year together with the thin trading, and the traditional seasonal sentiment may produce outsized volatility.

01:00 CNY China Caixin Manuf PMI (e51.7 p51.8)
14:00 USD US Housing/Home Price Indices
15:00 USD US Consumer Confidence


Wednesday January 01
Markets are closed everywhere today for the New Year holiday. Even Japan. The Aussie PMI is of course issued on Jan 2, local time.

22:00 AUD Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI


Thursday January 02
A new calendar year (and quarter) which may presage a change in sentiment. Sensitive data today in the form a raft of manufacturing PMIs which have been under pressure recently, and the Fed minutes of their last meeting.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Manuf PMI
08:55 EUR Germany Markit Manuf PMI
09:30 GBP UK Markit Manuf PMI
13:30 USD US Jobless Claims
14:30 CAD Canada Markit Manuf PMI
14:45 USD US Markit Manuf PMI
19:00 USD FOMC Minutes


Friday January 03
Note that despite this being the first Friday of the month, Non-Farm Payrolls are actually next week (10th). Today’s news is the most important of the week, particularly the ISM PMI. A return above 50 would be very bullish for markets.

08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate/Change
13:00 EUR Germany Prelim YoY CPI (p1.2%)
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (e49 p48.1)
18:15 CAD BoC Wilkins speech


This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.







Sunday 22 December 2019

Week to Dec 20th


Phase 1 China Deal, Santa Rally begins, GBP fades election spike

Mon Dec 16
The Friday ‘Phase 1’ trade deal inevitably gave a boost to indices, with FTSE outperforming, to join the FTSE250 after the euphoria of GBP last week came off. In currencies it was a mixed picture. Despite the poor German and Eurozone PMIs, EUR still rose, as did CAD following Oil. Gold was slightly up, and bonds were down in line with the equity move.


Tuesday December 17
A much flatter day on equities saw a slight rise in the US and Japan, but FTSE and particularly DAX fading as UK election euphoria cooled. In currencies, DXY was up mainly because GBP largely gave up its post election gains, falling 1.13% in addition to Monday’s 0.48% drop. Otherwise it was mixed with haven trio Gold, JPY and bonds slightly up, as was EUR and CAD following Oil, which had a good day.


Wednesday December 18
DAX continued to fall today, on concerns about the fallout for Europe on an accelerated Brexit, promised by UK PM Johnson, although other indices managed very slight advances. FTSE itself was slightly up as GBP continued to fall for the same reason, as did EUR. Nevertheless commodity currencies followed Oil up and haven trio Gold, Bonds and JPY were down, showing the market was still seasonally bullish.


Thursday, December 19
A mixed picture today as different forces moved indices. The US indices were quiet in futures, and then all rallied to new all-time highs in the cash sessions. DAX fell 80pts to hit a bottom before picking up US momentum to close flat, and FTSE climbed gently but only really in response to a further fade in sterling. The dollar had a flat day overall, with EUR hardly moving, but a 40 pip recovery in JPY after a series of misses in US data balancing the GBP slide. Oil followed stocks, but CAD was flat, as were yields. Gold surprisingly rallied all day, following the data misses but not the equity positive momentum.


Friday, December 20
The last day before the Christmas week coincided with quadruple witching day (the day, week, month and significantly, the quarter which is the expiration of index futures contracts). US indices rose sharply when the session opened, following earlier spikes up in the NKY and DAX opens, helped by GDP figures at 1330 and the Michigan CSI beat at 1500. Only FTSE was muted, affected by a further decline in GBP on the UK government’s decision to leave the EU on 31 Dec 2020, whether any agreement is in place or not. DXY followed SPX in a clear up day, pushing Gold and all currencies except AUD down. Oil moved sharply down, but this was a function of OpEx backwardation, the February contract having been traded about 60c lower. Yields were flat on the day.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
A complete reversal of last week’s sterling euphoria meant shorting GBPAUD would have been the best trade. The falling pound inevitably pushed FTSE to pole position on index performance. Although BTC was flat, ETH moved down sharply, and a creditable performance from FB was outshone by a double-digit advance in NFLX.



Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)


Monday December 23
This is the Christmas week, the quietest week of the year. Only today are there any meaningful released. Australian markets are closed.

04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (Oct)
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index (Oct)
13:30 USD US ND Capital Goods (MoM e-0.3% p1.1%)
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Nov)
13:30 CAD Canada GDP MoM
15:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM)
23:50 JPY BoJ MPC Minutes


Tuesday December 24
Many markets are closed for a half-day including the US, and some, such as Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Portugal are closed all day. There are no important news releases.


Wednesday December 25
All major world markets except Japan are closed for Christmas Day.


Thursday December 26
Many markets, although not the US, are closed for Boxing Day. News is again light. The ‘core’ Santa Rally in US stocks is supposed to start today. There is a rate decision on EGP.

00:00 JPY BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
13:30 USD Jobless Claims
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI YoY (e0.6% p0.6%)


Friday December 27
Still light, with many traders taking the full week as holiday.

09:00 EUR Economic Bulletin


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Sunday 15 December 2019

Week to Dec 13th


UK Conservative landslide, UK assets sharply up, Phase 1 China deal announced

Mon Dec 09

Concerns about the Dec 15 tariffs, and an inevitable pullback from Friday’s NFP ramp meant indices were down today, with haven assets bonds, JPY and Gold up, although the latter’s move was slight. The dollar was down in line with the risk-off mood, and all currencies were up except for the antipodean duo. Oil was flat on the day.


Tuesday December 10
A sudden decline (to 3120 support, the pre-NFP level) at the US open on trade concerns was alleviated by a WSJ report around 1530 that the Dec 15 tariffs could be delayed irrespective of the Phase 1 deal being completed. Nevertheless indices were slightly down on the day, although only DAX and FTSE were materially down, on currency strength. GBP fell sharply at the very end of the day after indices had closed, on yet another election poll.

DXY was down again, although this was mainly on Euro strength. CAD managed a slight advance, but other currencies slid. Gold tracked the equity dip, and finished up, in line with equities. However bonds and JPY were down reflecting the recovery.

Wednesday December 11
Today the Fed left rates unchanged as expected, The statement was interpreted by traders as dovish, and SPX rose, and the dollar fell after the release. All currencies rose against the dollar, with the move much more muted against JPY as you would expect. Gold and bonds were up, reflecting the weaker dollar rather than the equity position. Oil was down sharply on the EIA miss at 1530, although it recovered somewhat by the close.

Thursday December 12
A big day, with two events that moved markets. Carefully timed just after the opening bell, President Trump tweeted that a “BIG DEAL” [on China] was very close. The reaction was immediate and classic, Indices all shot up, and the haven trio collapsed. Oil and the dollar also rose in line, and the session ended with the dollar up across the board except for AUD.

However, the unexpectedly strong result for the British incumbent Conservative party, after many years of small majorities/hung parliaments, GBP shot up 3% (4c) in a matter of minutes, and EUR rallied 0.61% in sympathy. This had the effect of DXY moving from +0.44% to -0.52% in short order. There was also a boost to indices but this appeared the next day.

Friday December 13
The UK feel-good rally carried through the European session, but pulled back when the US opened, New York being more concerned about nothing concrete appearing to back up Trump’s tweet. Confirmation came finally towards the end of the session, confirming that a Phase 1 deal with China had been agreed, which caused an end-of-day boost and the US indices closed flat, a example of the highly logical but rare ‘buy the rumor, fade, then recover to the rumour level on the news’. European indices did better and closed up on the UK result.

Inevitably a 3% move creates an overbought situation, and GBP gave back about a third of its election euphoria gains, and EUR all of the, meaning a strong day for DXY across the board. The early failure of US indices meant JPY, Gold and Bonds were all positive on the day. Oil was up after choppy moves during the day.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
A strong week depressed JPY and so NKY was the strongest index, although FTSE expressed in USD would have risen 3.09%. Unsurprisingly therefore GBPJPY was the strongest pair, adding 2.21%. Bitcoin and Ether slept for a second week, and there was some notable reversion to value mean, as high PE FANGs fell, and moderate ones rose.





Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • Phase 1 China Deal
  • Six major/minor rate decisions
  • Six inflation or proxy reports
  • Lots of GDP and PMI as well

Monday December 16
There was little reaction on Friday to the Phase 1 China deal announcement, and delay in the December tariffs, so there may be a boost today. On the other hand, there is also the next stage of impeachment. Meantime today is PMI day, the key one being whether Germany has indeed turned a corner.

02:00 CNY NBS Press Conference
02:00 CNY Industrial Production/Retail Sales
08:30 EUR Germany Markit Manuf PMI (e44.5 p44.1)
09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (e50.9 p50.6)
09:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI (e49.6 p49.3)
14:45 USD US Markit PMIs
17:00 GBP UK Bank Stress Test Results


Tuesday December 17
Next to look for in the indeterminate calendar is the USMCA, which may be ratified in the House this week, but Senate confirmation will not come until January.
Fed Kaplan, Rosengren and Williams speak today.  There is a rate decision on HUF.

00:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
09:30 GBP UK Claimant Count/UnEmp/AHE (UnEmp e3.9% p 3.8%)
13:30 USD US Housing Starts/Building Permits
14:15 USD US Industrial Production
14:30 NZD GDT Milk Index (time approx)
17:30 USD Fed Rosengren speech
23:50 JPY Japan Imports/Exports/Trade Balance


Wednesday December 18
If Monday was PMIs, today is inflation with three CPIs and German PPI. Fed Brainard and Evans speak today. There are rate decisions on CZK and THB.

07:00 EUR Germany PPI
08:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde speech
09:00 EUR Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators
09:30 GBP UK CPI (YoY e1.5% p1.5%)
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI
10:15 USD Fed Brainard speech
13:30 CAD Canada CPI (Core YoY e1.9% p1.9%)
21:45 NZD NZ 19Q3 Final GDP (QoQ e0.4% p0.5%)


Thursday, December 19
And today is rate decisions. As well as majors JPY and GBP, there are also decisions on minors SEK, NOK and MXN, and elsewhere IDR and TWD. Holds are expected on all. The Jan 20 Oil contract CLF20 expires today.

00:30 AUD Aus Jobs/UnEmp (Jobs e14k p-19k)
03:00 JPY BoJ Rate Decision/Statement (e-0.1% hold)
06:00 JPY BoJ Press Conference
09:30 GBP UK Retail Sales
12:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision/Statement (e0.75% hold)
13:30 USD Philly Fed Manuf Survey
13:30 USD US Jobless Claims
15:00 USD US Existing Home Sales
23:30 JPY Japan National CPI


Friday, December 20
The final day before Christmas week, when many traders finish, and perhaps want to position themselves for the ‘core’ Santa Rally (the Christmas-New Year gap) is also OpEx day, so expect heightened volatility. There is also a rate decision on COP.

01:30 CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision (e4.15% hold)
07:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jan)
09:30 GBP UK 19Q3 Final GDP (QoQ e0.3% p0.3%)
11:00 GBP BoE Haskel speech
13:30 USD US PCE (QoQ)
13:30 USD US 19Q3 Final GDP (QoQ e2.1% p2.1%)
13:30 CAD Canada Retail Sales (MoM e0.1% p-0.1%)
15:00 USD US Core PCE (MoM and YoY)
15:00 USD US Michigan CSI


This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.



Saturday 7 December 2019

Week to Dec 6th



Tariffs vs data - V-shaped week,  Blowout NFP,  Sterling rallies on election hopes


Mon Dec 2
He did it again today. President Trump reimposed tariffs on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina, probably in reaction to their weakening currencies, which together with the important ISM PMI miss art 1500 sent SPX down 0.8%, its worst day in six weeks. Other indices followed suit. In liner, the dollar was down against Gold and all currencies except CAD, after Canada’s PMI also missed. Yields were surprisingly slightly up, as was Oil, although the latter was to be expected after Friday’s sharp fall.


Tuesday December 3
Markets tumbled further today on President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on France, in retaliation for their digital services ‘Google’ tax, and more worryingly that a China trade deal might not be concluded until the end of 2020. Only DAX, which had fallen more sharply on Monday, made a slight recovery. The reaction in Gold Up (1%)and Bonds (yields down 15bp) came today, both sharply up, the former by over 1%. Oil had a flat day. AUD rallied further after the RBA hold.


Wednesday December 4
Despite the South American and France actions, reports that Washington and Beijing are closer to agreeing Phase 1 tariff reduction lifted markets. Also PMI beats in China and Europe helped other markets, and all indices were up. The dollar had a third down day against other currencies, with the exception of Gold and JPY, which were down in line with the equity move. Oil was up sharply, rising 4% on the EIA stock beat, which helped CAD, also strongly up (0.75%) following a hawkish BoC report with their rate hold. Yields recovered somewhat after Tuesday’s 15bp drop.


Thursday December 5
After the wild moves in earlier days, markets were much quieter today, with the US nearly flat. A fourth day of dollar decline, and therefore EUR and GBP strength weighed on DAX and FTSE, which were both red, after German Factory Orders (0700) and Eurozone Retail Sales (1000) both missed. Gold and Oil were flat, and yields were up, but still not back at Monday’s level.


Friday December 6
The NFP blowout of 266k vs 183k, especially after the ADP miss at 67k on Wednesday, coupled with a rare beat on AHE (3.1% vs 3.0%) was welcomed by markets which shot up. There was not even any pullback between the print and the opening bell, in fact only a little profit-taking at the end.

It was the same story in other markets, and finally we had a green day in USD. Gold fell sharply reversing its Tuesday move. Yields shot up in line with the dollar and bond-stock rotation. As we signalled last week, the sharp positive move in CAD on Wednesday was almost exactly cancelled after the Canadian jobs report missed. The only oddity was JPY, which after a brief spike down on the NFP print, climbed again and ended the day up.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
A V-shaped week produced a surprisingly muted weekly performance with only FTSE moving more than 1%. It was down 1.45% on GBP strength, the second best performing currency. The top mover was NZDUSD up 2.22%. Cryptos went back to sleep, and FANGs were a mixed bag, with AMZN’s drop and GOOGL’s rise being the biggest moves.




Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • US and EU rate decisions
  • UK General Election
  • US and China inflation
  • Tariff deadline
Monday December 9
Over the weekend Chinese trade balance figures are published, and of course we enter yet another week waiting for US-China trade progress, in particular to delay the next set of tariffs due on December 15th. Remember of course CNBC Jim Cramer’s comment that as long as the market stays up, there is less pressure on Trump to conclude the deal.

23:50 JPY Japan 19Q3 Final GDP (e0.2% p0.1%)
07:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance
22:05 AUD RBA Governor Lowe speech


Tuesday December 10
The Chinese inflation print is the big news today. Also at some point this week President Trump is expected to sign a Phase 1 (excluding autos) deal with Japan. Also two members of the WTO appellate panel retire today, meaning decisions will remain in limbo until new appointments.

00:30 AUD Aus Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
01:30 CNY China CPI (YoY e4.2% p3.8%)
02:45 AUD RBA Bullock speech
09:30 GBP UK Manuf/Industrial Production
09:30 GBP UK GBP MoM
10:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (e0.0 p-2.1)
13:30 USD US Non-farm Productivity/Unit Labor Costs
23:30 AUD Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence

Wednesday December 11
A big day today, the last rate decision of the year, which is universally (99.3% probability) expected to be a rate hold. There is the important CPI print before the open, and a rate decision on BRL.

13:30 USD US CPI (Core YoY e2.3% p0.2%)
19:00 USD US Monthly Budget Statement
19:00 USD Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e1.75% hold)
19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference

Thursday December 12
The first rate decision meeting under new President Lagarde is due today, as well as other European news with German inflation and a Swiss rate decision. There are also rate decisions on PHP, TRY and PEN.
00:00 AUD Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations (Dec)
00:30 AUD RBA Bulletin
07:00 EUR Germany CPI YoY (e1.2% p1.2%)
08:30 CHF SNB Rate Decision/Statement (e-0.75% hold)
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision/Statement (e0.0% hold)
13:30 EUR ECB Lagarde Presser
13:30 USD US PPI
13:30 USD US Jobless Claims
17:45 CAD BoC Governor Poloz speech
21:30 NZD Business NZ PMI
22:00 GBP UK Election exit polls
22:00 NZD NZ Westpac Consumer Survey
23:50 JPY Japan Tankan Manufacturing Index/Outlook

Friday December 13
A quiet day today, where markets will still be reacting to the US and European rate decision statements. There is a rate decision on RUB.

04:30 JPY Japan Industrial Production
13:30 USD US Retail Sales (Control Group Mom e0.4% p0.3%)


This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.





Sunday 1 December 2019

Week to Nov 29th


Thanksgiving 3.5 day week, China move sparks three-day rally, Election whipsaw GBP

Mon Nov 25
The Friday recovery continued into Monday, helped by a booming HSI index after Beijing strengthened intellectual property rights in China (also a key point in the trade talks). Equities rallied everywhere. Sterling was also up on a new poll which gave the incumbent Conservative party a stronger lead. Markets don’t like PM Johnson’s Brexit, but they dislike left-winger Corbyn’s agenda a lot more. Otherwise USD was up elsewhere against currencies and Gold. Only NZD outperformed (slightly). Oil was up in line with equities. Yields however were down despite the stronger USD and SPX.


Tuesday November 26
President Trump again said both sides are close on the deal today, and together with some good retail earnings and the Home Prices beat, markets carried on upwards (except DAX, which was flat, despite the German confidence survey beat). The dollar had a Turnaround Tuesday and pulled back generally against currencies and Gold. However GBP also turned round as yet another poll showed the Labour Party had improved, and JPY was of course down, along with Gold and Bonds (and Oil was up) in line with the risk-on mood.


Wednesday November 27
Beats on the GDP, Durable/Capital Goods and Jobless Claims at 1330 gave the market a third straight day of gains. The reports also pushed the dollar up against all currencies and Gold, except sterling, which was back up sharply on yet another poll. Oil fell slightly as did Bonds.


Thursday, November 28*
US Markets were closed today for Thanksgiving. Other markets (and US futures) took a small breather today and pulled back slightly, led by DAX which came off after the German CPI miss at 1300. The dollar was similar quiet, generally flat across the board, with only JPY moving more than 0.1%. Oil and Gold were also flat, and the bond market was closed.


Friday, November 29
US Markets were only open for a half-day and again trading was quiet although the general trend was down, overshadowed by the new Trump Hong Kong monitoring bill. It was a bit livelier in Europe with DAX initially falling, then climbing sharply on the German Unemployment (0855) and European inflation (1000) beats, only to collapse again in the US session, along with FTSE which was weakened by more GBP strength, as markets became confident about a Conservative victory on Dec 12. Oil was sharply down at the end in line with the markets, but possibly end-of-month rebalancing.

In currencies, the chart above appears to show a sudden (probably end of month) spike down for the dollar at the end of the day, but this is within the context of very small moves. Again only JPY managed more than 0.1%. Notably, EURUSD had the flattest week ever since its inception in 1999, moving only 0.38% in the whole week.



WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
All indices were up this week, with risk-on NDX winning. Last week’s best short was this week’s best long, GBPJPY put on 1.50%. Cryptos recovered slightly after last week’s big losses, and FANG shares outperformed NDX as they do in risk-on markets. 



Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.


NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)
  • Non-Farm Payrolls
  • Aus and Canada rate decisions
  • Lots of PMI data
  • New month


Monday December 2
The new month, and the Santa Rally season opens with no less than six manufacturing PMIs, the US ISM one being the most likely to move markets.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Manuf PMI (Nov) (e51.4 p51.7)
08:55 EUR Germany Markit Manuf PMI (Nov)
09:30 GBP UK Markit Manuf PMI (Nov)
14:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde speech
14:30 CAD Canada Markit Manuf PMI (Nov)
14:45 USD US Markit Manuf PMI (Nov)
15:00 USD US ISM Manuf PMI (e49.4 p48.3)


Tuesday December 3
No significant news today in the US or Europe, so unless we get a breakthrough in the trade talks, expect little change to the trend. The consensus on the RBA is that rhetoric will remain dovish, so risks are to the upside on AUD which has been falling for weeks.

03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision/Statement (0.75% hold)
14:30 NZD NZ GDT Milk Index
17:30 EUR ECB De Guindos speech


Wednesday December 4
Today is the turn of Services/Composite PMIs, with six reports. The ‘sneak preview’ ADP jobs report estimate is only 138k, considerably lower than the NFP estimate, which is unusual. Like AUD, the loonie has also been falling since the beginning of November, and anything hawkish from the BoC may result in a move to the upside. There is also a rate decision in Poland today.

00:30 AUD Australia 19Q3 Final GDP (QOQ e0.5% p0.5%)
01:45 CNY China Caixin Services PMI (Nov)
08:55 EUR Germany Markit Composite PMI (Nov)
09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Nov)
09:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI (Nov)
13:15 USD US ADP Employment Change (Nov)
14:45 USD US Markit Services/Composite PMI (Nov)
15:00 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (e54.5 p54.7)
15:00 USD Fed Quarles speech
15:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e1.75% hold)
16:15 CAD BoC Press Conference


Thursday December 5
Attention turns to the Oil market today with the OPEC meeting. An extension of existing production cuts is expected, however some commentators are expecting more, especially in light of the Saudi Aramco float, which has underwhelmed so far. Markets are closed in Spain for Constitution Day.

00:30 AUD Aus Imports/Exports/Trade Balance
00:30 AUD Aus Retail Sales
07:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders
10:00 WTI OPEC Meeting
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
10:00 EUR Eurozone 19Q3 GDP (YoY e1.2% p1.2%)
13:00 CAD BoC Lane Speech
13:30 USD US Trade Balance (Oct)
13:30 USD US Jobless Claims
13:30 CAD Canada International Merchandise Trade
15:00 USD Fed Quarles speech
15:00 CAD Canada Ivey PMI


Friday December 6
The November jobs report will, as always been keenly watched. This month the Canadian report is simultaneous so expect USDCAD volatility, especially if CAD has moved sharply after the rate decision on Wednesday.

05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index (Oct) Prel
07:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production
09:00 WTI OPEC Meeting
13:30 USD US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e183k p128k)
13:30 CAD Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e15.9k p-1.8k)
15:00 USD US Michigan CSI (e96.5 p96.8)


his report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on TwitterFacebookStocktwitsTradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.