Sunday 15 August 2021

Week to Aug 13th

Tenth week of SPX ATHs, Dollar down on inflation and consumer sentiment


Equity markets rose smoothly all week on a succession of good news. On Tuesday the Senate passed the $1Trn infrastructure bill, a rare bipartisan success with 17 GOP members supporting the President. Markets were given a further lift (and the dollar depressed) by another strong, although not too strong inflation print, and the dollar fell further on the Michigan CSI miss on Friday, taking yields down with it. SPX posted its tenth weekly all-time high, and DJI its third. Gold and currencies rose on the weaker dollar. Oil had a fairly flat week.


The biggest mover this week was DAX, up 1.37%. The top forex mover was GBPJPY down 0.59%. Crypto had another strong week. FANGs were very varied.

My GBPCAD long lost 0.38% taking my year to date profit to 5.14% and 22/31 wins. This week I am selling AUDNZD.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

Next week’s calendar is quite busy, although the focus is not on the US. The key prints are CPI for the UK, Eurozone and Canada, and their corollary Retail Sales for the US, China and Canada, as inflation is currently the macro metric in focus. The FOMC minutes from the July 28 meeting will be scrutinised for precise wording. Earnings season moves into the retailer phase, with WMT reporting first as usual on Tuesday. Finally, it is OpEx week, with monthly options expiring on Friday.


Monday August 16

23:50 Japan Q2 Prelim GDP (Sun) (e0.2% p-1.0%)

02:00 China Retail Sales (e11.5% p12.1%)

04:30 Japan Industrial Production

Tuesday August 17

01:30 RBA Meeting Minutes

06:00 UK Claimant Count/AHE/UnEmp (UnEmp e4.7% p4.8%)

09:00 Eurozone Q2 Prelim GDP (YoY e13.7% p13.7%)

12:30 US Retail Sales (Control Group Jul e0.4% p1.1%)

23:50 Japan Imports/Exports/TB

Wednesday August 18

00:30 Aus Westpac Leading Index

01:30 Aus Wage Price Index

06:00 UK CPI (e2.2% p2.5%)

09:00 Eurozone CPI

12:30 US Building Permits/Housing Starts

12:30 Canada BoC CPI (p2.7%)

18:00 FOMC Minutes

Thursday August 19

01:30 Aus Jobs/UnEmp (Jobs p29.1k)

12:30 Philly Mfr Survey

12:30 US Jobless Claims

23:05 RBA Kent speech

23:30 Japan National CPI

Friday August 20

01:30 PBoC Rate Decision/Statement (e3.85% hold)

06:00 UK Retail Sales

06:00 Germany PPI

12:30 Canada Retail Sales (e-3.0% p-2.1%)

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