Week to Feb 18th

Ukraine uncertainty abounds. Gold makes 9-month high

MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY AUDNZD

LAST WEEK

Markets wobbled this week on Ukraine fears and but only ended up slightly down in inverted V-shaped pattern. USD made a V-shape but ultimately consolidated. The dollar consolidated and ended the week flat. After weeks of rising, 10-year yields pulled back in an inside week. Oil, affected by Ukraine tensions, was slightly more volatile and made a brief new high a few cents shy of $94 before pulling back. The only notable risk-off move was Gold which broke $1,900 for the first time since May 2021. The FOMC minutes did not reveal anything new, and there was no reaction from traders.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The biggest index mover was Ukraine-sensitive DAX, down 2.48%. The top forex mover was EURNZD down 1.07%. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell moderately, and FANG was fairly flat, except for beleaguer FB, down 6.1% and now at May 2020 lows, 46% off its September 2021 high.

Last week's EURGBP long position lost 0.48%, which means I am ahead 2.83% this year, with 3/6 (50%) wins. The trend is difficult to read this week, so I will fall back on my reserve AUDNZD, as a buy. It's won't make much, but it's safe.

 
Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK

Next week is a foreshortened four day week after Presidents Day on Monday when the markets are closed. There is little significant scheduled news, most important print is US GDP on Thu estimated at 7%, equal to the inflation figure which indicates no growth. With that, the primary focus will be on the tensions in Ukraine.


CALENDAR  (all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)

Monday February 21
22:00 Commonwealth Bank PMIs (Sun)
01:15 PBoC Rate Decision/Statement (e3.7% hold)
07:00 Germany PPI
08:30 Germany Markit PMIs (Mfr e59.4 p59.8)
09:00 Eurozone Markit PMIs (Comp e52.7 p53.8)
09:30 UK Markit Svcs PMI (e55.2 p54.1)

Tuesday February 22
09:00 Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators
10:45 BoE Ramsden speech
14:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices
14:45 US Markit PMIs
15:00 US Consumer Confidence

Wednesday February 23
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence
10:00 Eurozone HICP (CPI)

Thursday February 24
13:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
13:30 US PCE (QoQ)
13:30 US Q4 GDP (e7.0% p6.9%)
13:30 US Jobless Claims
15:00 US New Home Sales
23:30 Tokyo CPI

Friday February 25
07:00 Germany Q4 GDP
10:00 Eurozone Business Climate
10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence
13:30 US PCE (MoM & YoY)
13:30 US Durable/ND Capital Goods (DG e0.6% p-0.7%)
15:00 US Pending Home Sales
15:00 Michigan CSI