Week to Apr 5th

Equities rally on China hopes, Flat dollar despite wild GBP, Best crypto week for over a year

Mon Apr 01

The first day of the week, the month and the quarter opened strongly after the China Manufacturing PMI beat at 0145. We pointed out the significance of this last week. The figure came in at 50.8 vs 49.9 est, only 0.9 beat, but critically crossing the 50 point, the line between contraction and expansion. The important US ISM similar release beat at 1400, giving a sharp uptick to USDJPY. (the same release for Germany at 0700 - 44.1 vs 44.7 est - showed that last month’s print of 47.6 was not an outlier, as some commentators had thought.

The net result was a strong risk-on run for equities across the board, and an advance of 0.13% for DXY. EUR, JPY, Gold and 10-year Bonds (inverse to yields) dropped suddenly after the ISM print. Against this, CAD perked up after hawkish (well less dovish than expected) remarks from the BoC at 1755. AUD, without news, was flat. The dollar advance would have been greater expect for cable, up 1% on ‘soft’ Brexit hopes.

Tuesday April 02

As we predicted last week, the RBA did indeed join the chorus of doves at 0330, and the day started with a sharp fall in AUD. GBP had collapsed overnight, but climbed back to end the day flat on reports of bipartisan (ie May and opposition leader Corbyn) Brexit talks. CAD faded the Poloz gains. As AUD is not part of DXY, and the other majors had a quiet day, the DXY basket closed virtually flat (-0.03%), as did yields. Gold was slightly up. Equities had another good day, but mostly outside the US. NDX managed to add 0.3% but SPX was flat.

What was interesting is that after months in the doldrums, BTC spiked up 20% up in an hour from 0430, with, obviously, over 100x normal volume (and held onto these gains). This was accompanied by a similar move in ETH, but that took two days to complete. Naturally rumours abounded an Asian ‘whale’ in this unregulated world.

Wednesday April 03

Reports in the FT that the US and China were close to finalising their trade deal, plus a raft of PMI Services beats, resulted in a third day of equity gains, particularly in DAX. Only the US wobbled slightly after their ISM Non-Manufacturing print missed at 1400, trimming an SPX 0.6% advance to 0.2% at the close. After two green days Oil was down slightly after the substantial EIA stock miss (+7.2M vs -0.4M, more is worse) at 1430.

DXY shed 0.22% today, on the contrasting US and other PMIs, and possibly the ADP jobs miss at 1215. Gold was down, and yields and AUD were up in line with risk-on equities. JPY and CAD were probably pulled in two directions, risk on vs dollar weakness and Oil respectively. Both currencies were flat. EUR and GBP were both up.

Thursday April 04

Another up day from equities as Trump confirmed the China progress, although the pace was slowing. FTSE gapped down 0.4% to reflect overnight GBP strength but managed to recover this to end flat. The dollar recovered to close where it ended on Tuesday, evenly across all currencies. Oil faded slightly in line with the dollar. Gold was unusual, spiking down 0.5% through six hours to touch it Mar 7 low before recovering. Yields were flat on the day.

Friday April 05

Without a lead from China, which was closed, markets breathed a sigh of relief on the NFP beat at 1230, showing that last month was an outlier, and all were up, although the DAX gain was marginal. The SPX ran nicely to a pattern we have pointed out before, where after an instant spike, the price fades until the cash open, and then the size of that spike is repeated, as shown in the chart here. The trade is to buy SPX at the open, with a stop below the pre-NFP price, and a target of the ramp repeated. Oil was up 1.5% in line with the mood.

DXY was only very slightly up (+0.07%), EUR made small gains to offset the fall in GBP (Brexit) and CAD (Canadian NFP miss). After a strong week, yields fell 4bp after Trump called for the Fed to reintroduce QE.

The US major markets are now very close to previous all-time highs. SPX and DJIA are 1.68% away, NDX is even nearer at 1.39%, although notably RUT, DAX, NKY are around 10% off. It will be interesting to see if the SPX record close of 2930 is beaten next week.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

Another strong week for DAX makes it the top index mover again. In forex, the best trade would have been AUDJPY, up 0.90%. FANGs all beat their parent NDX index, with a particularly strong showing from FB, and the Tuesday crypto spike held, to give BTC and ETH their best week for over a year.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT, not BST)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• EU consider further Brexit delay
• US, China and German inflation
• ECB rate decision and statement
• Earning season starts on Friday

Monday April 08

After last weeks big calendar and start to the week and quarter, we are back to the usual quiet Monday today. Watch out for any weekend news, particularly on Brexit or Trump tweets. There are rate decisions on ILS and LKR. Markets are closed in Thailand.

06:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance

14:00 USD US Factory Orders (MoM)

Tuesday April 09

Another quiet day, with no releases in the European and US cash sessions, except the JOLTS jobs openings at 1400. Fed Vice Chair Clarida, (voter, obviously) centrist by definition, but thought to be leaning dovishly at the moment. Markets are closed in the Philippines and in Israel where there is an election, where the incumbent Likud government may not win. There is a rate decision on RSD.

01:30 AUD Aus Home Loans

05:45 CHF Switzerland Unemployment Rate

20:30 WTI API Oil Stock

22:45 USD Fed Clarida speech

23:01 GBP UK BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales

23:50 JPY Japan Machinery Orders

Wednesday April 10

Easily the busiest day of the week, the EU summit is almost certain to grant UK PM May a long extension to Brexit, rather than the short one she has asked for, figuring that the longer the extension, the softer the eventual Brexit, which is the EU’s stated preference. With Bund yields still negative, the ECB statement should prove interesting. Further TLTRO details may be unveiled, and if not, may be asked about in the presser.

US CPI is expected to be unchanged, which validates the Fed’s current no hike policy. The risk is to the upside, ie a beat may make traders think again. Although not a rate set meeting, the FOMC March minutes today put some flesh on the bones of the dovish reversal seem recently.

00:30 AUD Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence

02:30 AUD RBA's Debelle speech

06:15 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda speech

08:30 GBP UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production

08:30 GBP UK GDP (MoM Feb)

11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision/Statement (est 0% hold)

12:30 USD US CPI (Core YoY est 2.1% prev 2.1%)

12:30 EUR ECB Presser

15:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock

15:50 USD Fed Quarles speech

18:00 USD FOMC Minutes

Thursday April 11

Voting in the Indian election starts today. The world’s largest electorate will take six weeks to vote, with the counting starting on May 23. Exit polls are notoriously unreliable, but nevertheless, any significant move from the BJP to the Congress party may have an effect on markets. Chinese and German inflation are the key prints on the day.

00:00 AUD Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations

01:30 CNY China CPI (est 2.3% prev 1.5%)

02:30 AUD RBA's Debelle speech

06:00 EUR Germany CPI (est 1.4% prev 1.5%)

12:30 USD US PPI

12:30 USD US Jobless Claims

13:30 USD Fed Clarida 2nd speech

20:00 USD Fed Bowman speech

22:30 NZD Business NZ PMI

22:45 NZD NZ Electronic Card Retail Sales 

Friday April 12

The Q1/2019 Earnings Season starts today with the usual first reporter JPM, and fellow bank WFC, before the bell. The dovish Fed is bad for banks, and traders will be watching forward estimates closely. The IMF begin a three-day meeting in Washington DC. Today is the next Brexit 'deadline' although it is likely another extension will have been granted before then. Markets have a half-day in Sri Lanka. There are elections in Finland on Sunday.

02:00 CNY China Imports/Exports/Trade Balance

02:15 CNY China FDI

09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production

14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (est 98.0 prev 98.4)

17:00 WTI Baker Hughes Rig Count

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Week to Apr 20th

Monday April 16
The upward movement last week continued on Monday, pushing SPX back into positive territory for the year, as markets realised, like the April 7 2017 Syria strike, this was a one-off, and great care had been taken not to hit Russian assets. However the index only closed 0.8% higher, as financials lagged despite BAC beating earnings estimates. US Retail Sales at 1230 were at estimate, and so did not affect things.

A poor day for the dollar left NKY flat, and DAX and FTSE slightly down, the latter being also hurt by a 7% fall in Russian miner EVR. All currencies (and Gold) rose against the greenback. Oil was down slightly after last week’s stellar run. US 10-year Treasury yields were virtually flat (up 1bp). NFLX beat after the close and rose over 7% in the after-hours market.

Tuesday April 17

The NFLX result gave a kick to NDX today, which was up 2.75% at one point. DJIA was buoyed by the GS beat, and SPX was up 1.1% on the day, as were the non-US indices. DAX soared as EUR came off following a miss on the German ZEW sentiment report at 0900, the weakest for five years. The DAX component companies generally sell much more outside Germany than within it, so the DAX index is ‘more global’ than the Euro. Hence why you get the odd effect of bad news from Germany causing the German index to rise.

A similar effect happened with the FTSE, as after hitting a new post-Brexit high of 1.4376, GBP fell on the Average Earnings miss, which we flagged last week as important. NKY was also up in line with SPX, but Chinese stocks were further down after the mixed GDP report and more comments by Trump about CNY, and by inference Chinese trade in general. (He also attacked RUB but that was well down anyway). There was a knock-on effect on HKD, which hit the weaker end of its peg ($7.85).

Otherwise, the currency and commodity picture was mixed. AUD and Gold fell slightly, in line with EUR and GBP, but CAD, JPY and Oil were up slightly. Once again, bond were calmer, the 10-year yield was 1bp lower. Note the 2-year yield hit a 10-year high of 2.39%.

Wednesday April 18

Today was the turning point in what proved to be a lambda (inverted-V) shaped week for SPX, and particularly DJIA where the GS beat was followed with a IBM miss after the Tuesday bell. IBM is only 4.08% of DJIA but there is a sentimental factor which regards this 86-year old index member as a bellwether. It missed less than 1% (EPS $1.81 vs $1.83 estimate) yet the price fell over 8%. However a 3.1% surge in oil to a new four-year high (despite the EIA miss at 1430), helped energy stocks, and SPX and DJIA closed flat.

NKY rose sharply in the Asian session on positive North Korea news and remained fairly flat during the futures session. DAX declined slightly after the run up the previous day, and FTSE rallied following the fall in GBP after the 0830 UK inflation miss.

Currencies were mixed, with CAD joining GBP going south after the rate hold at 1400 and dovish BoC comments at 1515. EUR was flat, and AUD and Gold were noticeably up, as were yields which added 6bp to a four-week high of 2.87%.

Thursday April 19

Indices all fell today as geopolitical concerns continued, as well as Trump’s various troubles. Only FTSE managed to post a green candle after GBP fell sharply as BoE Governor Carney suggested there might not be a rate rise next month. HSI and CSI300 rallied as China trade war fears receded.

All other currencies and Gold fell against USD, AUD being the weakest, down 0.69%. Today was the day that EURCHF finally breached 1.20, the old peg figure used before Jan 15, 2015. The pair touched 1.2002 before easing back. Oil briefly touched a new four-year high before pulling back. Yields continued to ramp, up another 5bp.

Friday April 20

The US equity rout continued on Friday, with SPX giving up nearly all its gains for the week (see table below).  NKY and DAX followed suit, however FTSE bucked the trend as GBP continued to slide on the Carney comments. DXY had its best day this month, putting on 0.4%, as all currencies (and Gold) gave up ground. CAD faded 0.65% after the miss at 1230 on the inflation/retail sales print.

After attacking stocks (AMZN) and currencies (CNY, RUB) Trump now $IBMturned to commodities, and said oil was too high. How he proposes to change a global market is unclear. The price spiked down on the tweet but ended up flat on the day.

10-year yields carried on rising, to add a total of 13bp for the week. GE posted EPS of 16c vs 11c estimated, and the stock shot up 7.5% at one point, and closed 55c (3.93%) up on the day.

Please note all figures and percentages given for daily movement on indices cover the entire cash and futures period in that day.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The dollar rebounded this week, and most currencies reversed their gains of the previous week. The kiwi receded most, so selling NZDUSD would have been the best forex trade. Indices were much flatter, with only NKY managing to move more than 1% on a weaker yen. Oil held onto last week’s stellar gains but didn’t move much further. The crypto-currency recovery continued strongly following last week’s gains, with once again ETH performing even more strongly than BTC.

AUDUSD 0.7670 (-1.25%)

EURGBP 0.8764 (+1.17%)

EURUSD 1.2285 (-0.45%)

GBPUSD 1.4002 (-1.69%)

NZDUSD 0.7207 (-1.97%)

USDCAD 1.2753 (+1.17%)

USDJPY 107.64 (+0.27%)

DAX     12531 (+0.63%)

FTSE     7309 (+0.72%)

NIFTY   10564 (+0.79%)

NKY     22162 (+1.79%)

SPX    2671.1 (+0.60%)

GOLD  1335.86 (-0.67%)

OIL     68.02 (+0.98%)

BTCUSD   8843 (+12.09%)

ETHUSD 614.77 (+25.01%)

(Crypto prices are given as at 0000GMT Saturday, two hours after the other markets close.)

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

The final week of April (not quite, the month inconveniently ends the following Monday) continues into earnings season.

Monday April 23

The new SecState Pompeo faces an approval vote in the Senate (likely, but not a foregone conclusion). No Fed speakers today, but we have BoC Governor Poloz at 1930 (important after the dovish remarks last week), ECB Coeuré (hawkish) at 1400, and RBA Kent at 2200. Turkish markets are closed. GOOGL reports after the bell (earlier than originally scheduled), one of 61 companies reporting. England’s National Day St George’s Day is not a public holiday.

Tuesday April 24

The lead news item is Australian inflation. AUD’s recovery stalled last week, this should provide direction. ECB Villeroy speaks at 0930. DJIA components KO (1.23%) and CAT (4.31%) report before the bell. CAT is of course a big steel consumer. 116 companies in total report today.

Wednesday April 25

An extremely quiet day for economic releases, and although ECB Villeroy, Knot and Lane are speaking in France at 0800, monetary policy in unlikely  to be mentioned. Australia and New Zealand are closed for ANZAC Day, so all we are left with is earnings. Out of 291 companies reporting, the most notable are aluminum consumer and DJIA leader (9.53% of the index) BA, and steel consumer F, along with NYFANG 10% component Twitter before the bell, and recently troubled NDX giant (5.24%) FB after the close.

Thursday April 26

Earnings season peaks for this week with 403 companies reporting, including AMZN (moved forward from May 2), MSFT, BIDU and INTC, collectively 23.37% of NDX all reporting after the bell, along with US Steel (X), the tariff beneficiary. Before all that, we get the important ECB rate decision, and minutes/conference 45 minute later. Commentators are looking for any change in the taper policy. ECB Nouy speaks at 1520. The SEK (4.2% of DXY) rate decision is at 0730.

Friday April 27

Only 99 earnings reports today, most notably the two oil giants XOM and CVX (collectively 5.66% of DJIA). ExxonMobil is before the bell and Chevron afterwards. Japan is in focus during the Asian session with the rate decision following shortly after the Tokyo inflation report. Both UK and US report GDP today, the latter also reporting the probably more important PCE, an inflation proxy. Remember that employment and inflation is the Fed’s dual mandate, not growth itself. ECB speakers today are Mersch (twice 0545 and 0800) and Lautenschläger at 0645. The South African JSX is closed for Freedom Day.

CALENDAR (all times are GMT). High volatility items are in bold

Mon Apr 23

04:30 JPY Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM)

07:30 EUR Germany Markit PMIs

08:00 EUR Eurozone Markit PMIs

12:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index 

13:45 USD US Markit Composite/Services PMI

14:00 USD US Existing Home Sales (MoM)

22:00 AUD RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech

Tue Apr 24

01:30 AUD Australia CPI

05:00 JPY Japan Leading Economic Index

08:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate/Expectations

08:30 GBP UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

13:00 USD US Home Price Indices

14:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM)

20:30 WTI API Stock

Wed Apr 25

14:30 WTI EIA Stock

Thu Apr 26

07:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence

11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision

12:30 EUR ECB MPC statement/press conference

12:30 USD US Jobless Claims

12:30 USD US Durable Goods

22:45 NZD Trade Balance/Exports/Imports

23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI

23:30 JPY Japan Unemployment and Jobs/applicants

23:30 JPY Japan Overall Household Spending

23:50 JPY Japan Retail Sales

Fri Apr 27

00:00 EUR Eurogroup meeting (24h)

00:01 GBP UK Gfk Consumer Confidence

02:00 JPY BoJ Rate Decision

04:00 JPY BoJ Press Conference

08:00 EUR Germany Unemployment

08:30 GBP UK GDP

09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate

12:30 USD US GDP/PCE

17:00 WTI Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

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Week to Apr 13th

Monday April 09

After the sharp selloff on Friday, the equity markets initially behaved in a similar way to how they did three weeks ago with a strong rally. However, news about the FBI raid on Trump’s lawyer’s office caused most of these gains to evaporate, and SPX, DAX and FTSE only ended slightly up, and NKY was down. Oil rose in line and didn’t fade with the indices. The US dollar was down across the board, DXY giving up 0.3% fairly evenly against all currencies and Gold was down in line. All the volatility came in the early US day. US 10-year bond yields followed equities, as you would expect (flow of money from bonds to equities), and reached a high of 2.814% before receding to close up 1bp at 2.78%

Tuesday April 10

President Xi of China made a conciliatory speech at the Bo’ao Forum on Hainan Island, meaning the threat of a full-blown China-US trade war receded. Markets rallied, helped by the US PPI beat at 1230, and erased the previous days US losses, and even more than that in DAX, FTSE and especially NKY, helped by a weak risk-on JPY, which was the only currency to lose ground against USD, which had a second bad day, with DXY down 0.23%, all other currencies gaining, and Gold and Oil up in line. Bond yields were up a further 3bp, following Monday’s trend.

Wednesday April 11

The tension watched up regarding the Syrian user of chemical weapons with week, with bellicose rhetoric from President Trump, but market reaction varied. Gold, the classic war safe haven soared, touching $1,365, a two month high at one point. Oil rose as the war is in the Middle East, shrugging off the EIA Stock miss. The continuing weak dollar (USD was down for a third day) limited the SPX loss to  0.6% (DJIA 0.9% NDX 0.4% as FB recovered following Mark Zuckerberg’s largely successful Senate testimony). The US CPI print at 1230 was as expected, and did not cause much action. With DAX, the currency situation works the other way, and the German index fell 0.8%. FTSE, which is partially an oil proxy, was only down a mere 0.28%, helped by a 7.2% rise in supermarket retailer TSCO.L on strong earnings.

After an earlier rally, the dollar reversed after the FOMC minutes, and closed down against all currencies except GBP which was exactly flat (moved less than 1 pip in the 24 hour period).  10-year yields attempted to rally but ended 1bp lower.

Thursday April 12

The mood lightened today when Trump said the Syria attack may not be imminent. We now know in hindsight that it happened less than 48 hours later, when markets are closed, showing that Trump can match Putin for guile and subterfuge when required. Readers will remember that the Ukraine and Crimea moves by Putin were usually done at weekends. Markets took his remarks at face value, and it was clear risk-on for the first time this week. Gold, JPY and bonds (inverse to yields) all came off sharply, and all indices were up, particularly DAX as EUR moved firmly down, after the Eurozone Industrial Production miss at 0900, and dovish remarks in the ECB minutes, but also by events in the Russian markets.

Both the MICEX and RUB had been falling all week on the latest round of US sanctions and inevitably there had to be some contagion into Eurozone. Conversely the UK economy is less intertwined with Russia, and GBP was healthily up on the day, moving EURGBP to a nine-month low. It might also be that nothing has gone wrong with Brexit this week, and attention is distracted by Mrs May’s strong stance on both the Skripal poisoning and Syria.

As GBP is only 11.9% of DXY, the index managed to post its first green candle of the week, up 0.28%. AUD and CAD were roughly flat on the day. Oil continues its rally, posting new three year highs.

After languishing all month. Bitcoin showed a remarkable rally around 12:00, ramping $1,110 (15.85%) in 25 minutes. Commentators are variously ascribing this to a fatwa confirming that crypto investing is halal (permitted) for Muslims, the entry of George Soros into the market, money flow to avoid US sanctions by one or more Russian oligarchs, or loss crystallization for US Tax Day. There was virtually no pullback from initial spike and the effect was seen in other cryptocurrencies.

Friday April 13

We mentioned paraskevic triskaidekaphobia in last week’s report, and there was certainly Syrian war fear in the trading of US financials. JPM, C, and WFC all beat earnings estimates and opened higher, but then all fell sharply. In the case of JPM (3.19% of DJIA), the intraday drop was 4.28%, producing a textbook example of a bearish engulfing candle, suggesting further downside. The day ended with SPX down 0.3% and DJIA down 0.5%, assisted by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and JOLTS Job Openings misses at 1400. NKY was also down, but DAX and FTSE were less affected and ended the day flat. Oil was up again, closing its best week since Nov 2016.

USD was down slightly against all currencies except JPY again. Gold and bonds (inverse to yields) were up in line, confirming the three pointers of a risk-off day to end the week. By the way, the only other Friday 13th this year is in July.

Please note all figures and percentages given for daily movement on indices cover the entire cash and futures period in that day.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

As last week, DXY didn’t move much (down 0.33%) as it was supported by the weaker yen inline with the equity gains. Otherwise all currencies gained against USD, and the most volatile yen pair for the fourth week out of five was CADJPY putting on 1.77%. This pair is a good oil proxy, as Canada exports oil, and Japan imports it.

The biggest index mover was DAX, but the standout trade of the week was to buy Oil which posted five green candles for the week for the first time since January.

Crypto-currencies staged a huge reversal/recovery, and carried on rising after our Friday night cutoff point. We have to eat our words about reduced volatility last week after the stunning move upwards, particularly in ETH. Significantly, BTC has broken out of downtrend line, and it remains to be seem whether this breakout is false or real.

AUDUSD 0.7767 (+1.24%)

EURGBP 0.8663 (-0.57%)

EURUSD 1.2340 (+0.50%)

GBPUSD 1.4243 (+1.11%)

NZDUSD 0.7352 (+1.10%)

USDCAD 1.2606 (-1.36%)

USDJPY 107.35 (+0.41%)

DAX     12452 (+2.19%)

FTSE     7257 (+1.64%)

NIFTY   10481 (+1.45%)

NKY     21772 (+1.61%)

SPX    2655.1 (+1.98%)

GOLD  1344.88 (+0.90%)

OIL     67.36 (+8.82%)

BTCUSD   7889 (+20.42%)

ETHUSD 491.79 (+27.33%)

(Crypto prices are given as at 0000GMT Saturday, two hours after the other markets close.)

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

There is likely to be some fallout from the Syria strike at weekend, but inevitably, we can only offer pointers to scheduled events.

Monday April 16

Two Fed speakers on the roster today, Kaplan (centrist, non-voter) at 16:00 and Bostic (centrist, voter) at 17:15. BoJ Amamiya speaks at 08:10. The only economic release of note is US Retail Sales at 12:30. The earnings season kicks off properly with BAC before the US open and NFLX after the close. There is a rate decision in Israel, and markets are closed in Thailand.

Tuesday April 17

A bit more news today, the most important probably being the UK Average Earnings. A May GBP rate hike is largely priced in, so a miss here would almost certainly derail sterling’s stellar performance recently. The RBA Minutes are unlikely to surprise. Five Fed speakers today: Williams (hawkish, voter) at 13:15, Quarles (centrist, voter) testifying to the House at 14:00, Harker (centrist, non-voter) at 15:00, Evans (dovish, non-voter) at 17:10 and finally Bostic (centrist, voter) at 22:40. Japanese PM Abe is meeting Trump again at Mar-A-Lago. Golf, tariffs and Kim Jong Un are on the agenda. DJIA heavyweight GS (7.23% of the index, second only to BA) reports before the open, and index bellwether IBM report afterwards.

Wednesday April 18

Another key print in the run-up to the BoE May meeting is the UK inflation. This will certainly move GBP and needs to be viewed in conjunction with Tuesday’s worker earnings. The BoC are expected to hold rates at 1.25%, so their inflation target, also published in the minutes will be key. Two more Fed speakers Dudley (centrist, voter) at 19:00 at Quarles again (centrist, voter) after the bell at 20:15.

Tariff-protected AA report after the bell. They made a loss (EPS -$1.06, est +$1.06 not a typo) in the last quarter and dropped 22% in 17 days. They have nearly fully recovered since the beginning of April. Estimate is $0.50 EPS.

Thursday April 19

Australian ‘NFP’ predicts 31.5k new jobs, nearly double last month’s figure. This would equate to 425k in US terms, given the US has 13.5x the population. A miss, coupled with any surprise dovish RBA remarks could halt AUD’s current run upwards. Note the NAB Confidence data an hour before. 

Fedspeak continues unabated, with Quarles (centrist, voter) continuing his testimony, now with the Senate at 13:30, Brainard (was a dove, now more centrist and therefore more interesting, voter) at 12:00, and Mester (hawk, voter) at 2345. UK Retail Sales (inflation proxy) are less interesting than usual given the actual CPI data earlier in the week. The Canadian ADP jobs report today is of less use when, unlike the US, is not released in the same week as NFP.  Israel is closed for Independence Day.

Friday April 20

The main event of the day is the Canadian inflation print together with Retail Sales. Japan also reports inflation in the Asian session although this rarely moves markets. One Fed speaker today Evans (dovish, non-voter) at 13:40. Beleaguered giant GE reports after the bell. Its recent fall in price means it is now the lightest component of DJIA at 0.38%. It is the oldest component, continuously present for 110 years, but any further declines could result in it being ejected soon. Watch out of course for any further geo-political tensions as military one-off events tend to happen at weekends.

CALENDAR (all times are GMT). High volatility items are in bold

Mon Apr 16

12:30 USD US Retail Sales (MoM)

18:15 USD Fed Bostic speaks

Tue Apr 17

01:30 AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes

02:00 CNY China Retail Sales/Industrial Production

02:00 CNY China GDP

08:30 GBP UK Average Earnings/Unemployment

09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Current Situation/Economic Sentiment

12:30 USD US Building Permits/Housing Starts (MoM)

13:15 USD US Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization

14:00 NZD NZ GDT Milk Price Index (time approx.)

20:30 WTI API Stock

23:50 JPY Japan Imports/Export/Trade Balance

Wed Apr 18

00:00 EUR Eurogroup meeting

08:30 GBP UK CPI/RPI/PPII

09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI

14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision

14:30 WTI EIA Stock

15:15 CAD BoC Press Conference

18:00 USD Fed's Beige Book

22:45 NZD NZ CPI

Thu Apr 19

00:00 EUR EcoFin Meeting

00:30 AUD National Australia Bank Business Confidence

01:30 AUD Employment Change/Unemployment/Participation

08:30 GBP Retail Sales

12:30 USD US Jobless Claims

12:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey

23:30 JPY National CPI

Fri Apr 20

00:00 EUR IMF Meeting

11:30 EUR BuBa President Weidmann speaks

12:30 CAD Canada CPI/Retail Sales

17:00 WTI Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here.