Week to Jan 21st

NDX collapse on rate hike fears, Oil makes 6-year high

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL NZDUSD

THIS WEEK

US indices were battered this week, over continuing concerns about tightening, exacerbated by the GS miss and other lukewarm earnings into OpEx day. The NFLX miss on new subscribers gave the stock its worst week in a decade, down 25%, which in turn pushed NDX down 7.5%, its worst week since the March 20 COVID crash. Heavily weighted AMZN fell 12%, its worst week since December 2018. The decline was considerably less in Europe, with FTSE briefly touching a new 2022 high before joining the trend. The dollar had an inside week, whereas yields briefly touched a two-year high before retreating, and German yields moved above 0% for the first time since early 2019. Gold rallied to a 9-week high in line with the market mood, and Oil briefly made a new 6-year high before pulling back.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The biggest index mover was NDX, down 7.51%. The top forex mover was NZDJPY down 1.81%. Bitcoin and Ethereum also fell heavily, and FANG fell even more than NDX. Red all over the place.

Last week's NZDCAD long position lost 0.26%, which when added to last week’s 0.33%, means I am ahead 0.07%, with 1/2 (50%) wins. This week I'll try selling NZDUSD, expecting a Fed dollar boost.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK

The final week of January sees the Fed rate decision, where the bar for hawkishness is high. It is also a key week of earnings season with nearly 30% of NDX reporting (AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, INTC) as well as DJI heavyweights IBM, JNJ and MCD. Also there is a Canadian rate decision, US final A4 GDP ad Australian inflation. A packed week for a depressed market to process.

CALENDAR  (all times are GMT)

Monday January 24
22:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank PMIs (Sunday)
08:30 Germany Markit PMIs (Mfr e57.0 p57.4)
09:00 Eurozone Markit PMIs (Comp e52.6 p53.3)
09:30 UK Markit Mfr & Svcs PMIs
13:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
14:45 US Markit PMIs

Tuesday January 25
00:30 Australia CPI (Trimmed Mean QoQ e0.7% p0.7%)
09:00 Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators
14:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices
15:00 US Consumer Confidence
21:00 MSFT ER

Wednesday January 26
10:30 Germany 10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)
15:00 BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)
16:15 BoC Press Conference
19:00 Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)
19:30 FOMC Press Conference
21:00 TSLA ER

Thursday January 27
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence
13:30 US PCE (QoQ)
13:30 US Durable Goods (e-0.5% p2.6%)
13:30 US Q4 GDP (e5.6% p2.3%)
13:30 US Jobless Claims
15:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM)(Dec)
21:30 AAPL ER
23:30 Tokyo CPI

Friday January 28
09:00 Germany Q4 GDP (QoQ p1.7%)
10:00 Eurozone Business Climate/Consumer Confidence
13:30 US PCE (MoM and YoY)
15:00 Michigan CSI

Week to Jun 11th

Inflation Blowout, Dollar finally rises, SPX/NDX new highs
MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL NZDUSD

LAST WEEK

The US inflation print exceeded expectations to post a new 13-year high, and President Biden raised the issue of new tariffs on rare metals.

10-year bonds had their best week for a year. The dollar was also up, with Gold and currencies down, although overall the moves were not large.

DJI was down in line, although strong tech performance led SPX to new highs, and NDX was the strongest index, with the NDX/DJI ratio having its best week since March. The ECB offered nothing new and so EUR hardly moved.

Politics and Brexit came to the fore at the G7, with the US rebuking PM Johnson for not implementing the NI goods protocol.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

In this consolidating week, moves were modest, with only NDX moving more than 1%. The biggest forex mover was NZDUSD down 1.19%. BTC held steady whereas ETC fell sharply.  FANGS were generally in line with NDX except AMZN which outperformed.

My USDJPY buy was at least positive but I only made 0.10%, bringing the running total to 16/22 wins but still negative at -0.22%. I am confident the dollar is turning up, so this week I will sell NZDUSD.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK

Next week sees the first Fed meeting since two high inflation prints, and two strong NFPs, and the CME FedWatch tool is actually pricing in a 4% of a 25bp hike. This is extremely unlikely, but what is more likely is some hint of taper later in the year. Also we have inflation from the UK, Germany and Canada, where the trend is also upwards. There is a rate decision in Japan, and Friday is triple-witching day, where quarterly (including index futures), monthly and weekly options all expire.
 

• Fed Rate Decision and Statement
• Japan Rate Decision
• UK, Germany, Canada inflation
• OpEx on Friday

Monday June 14
04:30 Japan Ind Production (YoY)(Apr)
09:00 Eurozone Ind Production s.a. (MoM)(Apr)

Tuesday June 15
01:30 RBA Meeting Minutes
01:30 Aus House Price Index (QoQ)(Q1)
06:00 UK Claimant Count/AHE/UnEmp (UnEmp e4.7% p4.8%)
06:00 Germany CPI (e2.4% p2.4%)
12:30 US Retail Sales (Control Group e0.3% p-1.5%)
12:30 US PPI
23:50 Japan Imports/Exports/TB

Wednesday June 16
00:30 Aus Westpac Leading Index (MoM)(May)
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY e14% p17.7%)
06:00 UK CPI (YoY e1.8% p1.5%)
09:00 Eurozone Labor Cost(Q1)
10:30 DE10Y Auction (time approx.)
12:30 Canada Building Permits/Housing Starts
12:30 BoC Core CPI (e1.9% p2.3%)
18:00 Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)
18:30 FOMC Press Conference
 

Thursday June 17
00:00 RBA Governor Lowe speech
01:30 Aus Employment/UnEmp (Emp e30k p-30.6k)
09:00 Eurozone CPI
12:30 Philadelphia Fed Mfr Survey(Jun)
12:30 US Jobless Claims
23:30 Japan National CPI

Friday June 18
03:00 BoJ Rate Decision/Statement (e-0.1% hold)
06:00 BoJ Press Conference
06:00 UK Retail Sales
06:00 Germany PPI

Week to Aug 9th

Worst day of 2019 on Monday, Surprise NZD 50bp cut, GBP and FTSE both fade

Mon Aug 05

Today was the worst day of 2019 for indices, SPX was down 3% at the close, and carried on falling throughout the Tuesday Asian session, the largest 24 hour drop since the 5/6 Feb 2018 collapse. It touched a low in Asia of 5.43% down on Friday’s close. This was generally blamed on the Trump tariff tweet of last week coming immediately after the rate cut, although not helped by the bad miss on the US Non-Manuf PMI at 14:00 (53.7 vs 55.1). Services are supposed to be strong in the US (tech etc.)

DXY was similarly affected, down 0.71% at the close (the worst day since Jan 25 2019), and a low of 0.92% in the Asian session. EUR and JPY were around 1% up, but CAD and GBP hardly moved, and AUD fell 0.6% even against the weaker dollar. Gold was up in line with the dollar, Oil down in line with equities, and yields down in line with both.

Tuesday August 06

After such a large drop on Monday, indices rebounded about a quarter of the drop, as did DXY although only CAD was notably down, following Oil which continued to slide. EUR, GBP, AUD were more or less flat, and risk-off markers Gold, JPY and bond prices (inverse to yields) were up again. The AUD rate hold had no effect.

Wednesday August 07

A quieter day today as volatility receded, with SPX and DJIA more or less flat, but an advance for NDX and European indices. The dollar (and yields) were fairly flat as well with a slight advances in JPY balancing a pullback in Oil-linked CAD. Oil was at one point down 5.5%, but found June support around $51 and rebounded. 

The big news was the 50bp rate cut in New Zealand, when only 25bp was expected, which triggered an immediate 2.5% drop in the kiwi, and a sympathetic 1.5% fade in AUD. The Aussie recovered to close flat. The Antipodean currencies are not, of course, part of the DXY basket.

Thursday August 08

The recovering SPX and DJIA passed into last weekend’s gap territory. This is known as an ‘air pocket’, ie there is no resistance. The indices advanced evenly and closed the gap by the end of the day. Foreign indices followed suit. Some attributed this to the Chinese Trade Balance beat, although the move only really took off when the US cash session opened. Also today the PBoC allowed USDCNY to rise above 7.0, a significant roundpoint, marking an 11-year low for the renminbi.

A small aside, renminbi or “people’s currency” is the currency, yuan is the unit of account. Most other countries use the same word for both, the nearest example is sterling and pound in the UK. So you wouldn’t say ‘a thousand renminbi’, but you could say ‘the yuan is weak’.

Yet another dollar indecision day, with a slight move down (in yields as well) with the heavily DXY-weighted euro balancing moves up in JPY and CAD. AUD performed surprisingly well up 0.73%, possibly due to Gold pushing through the $1500 barrier for the first time in six years. 

Friday August 09

President Trump told reporters he was not ready to make a deal with China yet, and indices pulled back again today, although there was a partial recovery towards the US close. Of course, like all week, movement has been also a technical whipsaw following the enormous move on Monday. The dollar was well down (DXY -0.55%), and would have been more if GBP had not cratered again, as PM Johnson and allies rhetoric increases fears of a no-deal Brexit, and GBP keeps sliding towards 1.20 ‘Brexit floor’ and important psychological points, as it also tends to EURGBP parity. This ended the week with DXY down 1.09%, The yen was of course up, but despite all this, other risk indicators were contrarian: Gold was down, and yields and Oil were both up.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The Monday rout recovered to various degrees, but Brexit-troubled FTSE for once did not benefit from sterling weakness, and fell the most. Buying EURNZD would have been the best forex trade. BTC continued to rise, although not joined by ETH. FANGs are more volatile than NDX and therefore fell more, with NFLX the worst performer.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• All eyes still on China
• US and UK inflation
• More European GDP
• Retail earnings, retail sales

Monday August 12

There are several possible USTR announcements in the tariff saga this week, but there are no exact schedules. Markets are closed in India and Turkey. Scheduled news is light, as is often the case on Mondays. 

22:45 NZD NZ Electronic Card Retail Sales (Sunday)

18:00 USD US Monthly Budget Statement

22:00 AUD RBA Kent speech

Tuesday August 13

US and Germany inflation are the key prints today. Otherwise, we continue to listen for trade war remarks or tweets.

06:00 EUR Germany CPI (YoY e1.1% p1.1%)

08:30 GBP UK AHE (e3.7% p3.4%)/UnEmpl (e3.8% p3.8%)

09:00 EUR Germany/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Germany e-22.3 p-24.5)

12:30 USD US CPI (MoM Core e0.2% p0.3%)

Wednesday August 14

Eurozone and German GDP will inevitably weigh on EUR today, but UK inflation probably more so, given GBP recent volatility to the downside. NDX heavyweight CSCO reports after the bell.

00:30 AUD Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence

01:30 AUD Aus Wage Price Index (QoQ)

02:00 CNY China Retail Sales/Industrial Production

02:00 CNY China NBS Press Conference

06:00 EUR Germany 19Q2 Preliminary GDP (QoQ e-0.1% p0.4%)

07:30 AUD RBA Debelle speech

08:30 GBP UK CPI (YoY e2.0% p2.0%)

09:00 EUR Eurozone 19Q2 Preliminary GDP (e0.2% p0.2%) 

15:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock

23:00 AUD RBA Debelle speech

Thursday August 15

The day starts with DJIA component WMT earnings, and Bitcoin mining chip maker NVDA reports after the bell. There are rate decisions on NOK and MXN. Markets are closed in some European countries for Assumption Day (but not the UK and Germany), and also in India and South Korea.

01:30 AUD Aus NFP/UnEmp (NFP e26.8k p0.5k)

08:30 GBP UK Retail Sales

12:30 USD US Retail Sales (Control Group e0.3% p0.7%)

12:30 USD US Jobless Claims/Unit Labor Costs/Productivity

12:30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey

13:15 USD US Industrial Production (MoM)

22:30 NZD NZ Business PMI

Friday August 16

Today is monthly OpEx, so expect heightened volatility. The main event is the increasingly important semi-monthly Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

07:00 CNY China FDI

12:30 USD US Building Permits/Housing Starts

14:00 USD Michigan CSI (e97.7 p98.4)

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits, TradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here.

Week to May 10th

Trump tweet cast shadow on the week, Trade Talks still unresolve, AUD, NZD brief spikes only

Mon May 06

President Trump tweeted at weekend to confirm that he would be implementing China tariffs on Friday, and although this was the default condition, the confirmation caused SPX to gap down 1.5%, touching 2.2% by the middle of the Asian session, although this reversed when the US opened and the primary index closed down 0.5% on the day. It was a similar story with world indices. The dollar only moved very slightly (DXY -0.08%). Most currencies were up but the basket loss was trimmed by a GBP fade, as no progress appears to be being made on Brexit. Gold was down, surprisingly, and Oil was up 2%. Yields were roughly flat in line with the dollar.

Tuesday May 07

Equity markets slid further today on trade war fears, with SPX down 1.7% and the risk-sensitive NDX down 2%. DJIA posted its worst day since Jan 3. The risk-off assets (bonds, JPY and Gold) all rose, but with risk currencies falling, the net effect on DXY was a rare totally flat day. AUD spiked up 40 pips when the RBA did not cut rates, as a minority of commentators expected, but this was short-lived. Oil’s volatility continued, giving up most of Monday’s gains.

Wednesday May 08

There was some worry that Chinese vice-premier Liu may not even attend the latest talks after the Trump tweet, but it was confirmed they would go ahead tomorrow and Friday. Markets paused, and SPX ended flat, and NKY continued to slide. However, DAX and FTSE were up. We may have been seeing a rotation into (cheaper) European equities.

It was third flat day for the dollar (DXY+0.04%), again a GBP slide was covered by slight appreciation in EUR and JPY (EUR had not moved out of a 35 pip range since Monday). NZD plunged 1.2% in thin trading as the RBNZ cut rates, but quickly recovered to its opening level a few hours later. A later fade ended the Kiwi 0.4% down on the day. Both Gold and Bonds rallied then collapsed quickly to end the day lower, despite there being no obvious triggers. Oil was up slightly.

Thursday May 09

A fourth day of trade gloom was only slightly mitigated by President Trump saying he had received a “beautiful letter” from his counterpart in China, moving SPX from a low of 1.5% to ‘only’ 0.3% down at the close. Other indices followed suit. DXY finally made a noticeable move, down 0.17%, largely due to a sharp move in EURUSD which shot up 0.5% in 30 minutes as the US opened. There was no European news to prompt this, so it may have been a rotation into EUR similar to the equity rotation we mentioned yesterday. Most currencies (and Gold) were up, although AUD only managed to end flat. Oil was down in line with stocks.

Friday May 10

Despite the trade talks failing [to produce an agreement], positive remarks from US TreasSec Mnuchin and Vice-Premier Liu produced an end-of-week rally which put indices into positive territory, but still posting the worst week of 2019. USD paid little attention to the CPI miss at 1230, the only notable move was a big surge in CAD which added 100 pips (0.75%) on the Canadian NFP beat. DXY was down 0.1% on the day, with very slight appreciation across the board (including Gold and Oil). Yields were fairly flat.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

All indices fell, with the NIFTY falling furthest. Last week the most volatile pair was GBPJPY up 2.41%, this week it’s down 2.38%. Yet another crypto rally, and notably Bitcoin added another 14% over the weekend. FANGs were all considerably further down than NDX as a whole.  

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• German and Eurozone GDP
• US Retail Sales but little else
• Option expiration week
• Several CB speakers

Monday May 13

A quiet start to the week with no significant European or US news. Markets are closed in Hong Kong. Fed Rosengren (hawk, voter) and Clarida (vice-chair) speak today. There is an election in the Philippines.

01:30 AUD Aus Investment Lending for Homes

02:15 CNY China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY)

05:00 JPY Japan Leading Economic Index

21:30 CAD BoC Lane Speech

Tuesday May 14

All the news is from Europe today, with another day of nothing from the US. Fed George (hawk, voter)speaks today.

06:00 EUR Germany CPI (e1.7% p2.1%)

08:30 GBP UK Unemployment/AHE (Core AHE e3.4% p3.4%)

09:00 EUR Eurozone & Germany ZEW Sentiment

20:30 WTI API Oil Stock

Wednesday May 15

After the simultaneous German and Eurozone GDP, we have US Retail Sales and Canadian inflation, both at 1230. Expected USDCAD volatility. Fed Barkin (hawkish, non-voter) speaks today. NDX heavyweight CSCO reports after the bell. There are rate decisions on RON and PLN.

00:30 AUD Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence

01:30 AUD Aus Wage Price Index (QoQ)

02:00 CNY China Retail Sales (YoY)

02:00 CNY China Industrial Production (YoY)

02:00 CNY China NBS Presser

06:00 EUR Germany 19Q1 GDP (prelim) (QoQ e0.3% p0.0%)

09:00 EUR Eurozone 19Q1 GDP (prelim) (QoQ e0.4% lunch.)

12:30 USD US Retail Sales Apr (Control Grp e0.4% p1.0%)

12:30 CAD Canada CPI (Core YoY e1.8% p1.6%)

13:15 USD US Industrial Production (MoM)

14:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock

Thursday May 16

The most important print of the day is the Australian jobs report. DJIA component WMT reports before the bell. There are rate decisions on IDR and MXN.

00:00 EUR Eurogroup Meeting (all day)

01:30 AUD Aus NFP/UnEmp (NFP e14k p25.7k)

02:45 AUD RBA Bullock speech

08:15 EUR BuBa President/ECB Weidmann speech

12:30 USD US Housing Starts/Building Permits (MoM)

12:30 USD US Jobless Claims

12:30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey

17:30 GBP BoE Haskel speech

21:30 NZD Business NZ PMI

Friday May 17

Today is monthly OpEx day, so expect additional volatility. The key release is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Markets are closed in Denmark and Norway. This weekend is the Australian Federal Election, and the results from India are due next week.

00:00 AUD Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations

09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI

14:00 USD Michigan CSI (prelim) e97.2 unch.

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits, TradingView or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here

Week to Mar 29th

Further Brexit defeats, NZD collapse, Mueller exonerates Trump (for now)

Mon Mar 25

After last Friday’s collapse following the 10-year/3-month bond inversion, markets were subdued today, with SPX flat, although non-US markets showed some recovery. USD was similarly flat, with slight moves down in GBP being matched by slight increases elsewhere.  Oil, Gold and bonds (inverse to yields) were up on the day, with the 10-year yield down 4.4bp. Apple’s product event underwhelmed the market, and the stock dropped 1.5%.

Tuesday March 26

All equity indices were up today as market digested the Mueller report exonerating, which was announced at weekend, but probably took a day to digest. Sometimes they do this on a ‘no news’ day. The dollar was also up as the drop in yields halted. DXY added 0.28% but the picture was mixed. The usual risk-on profile was seen. Gold and JPY were down, but AUD and CAD were up. EUR fell after the Germany Gfk confidence miss at 0700, whereas GBP was slightly up as some Brexiteers softened on the Theresa May deal, not enough however for the vote, which was cancelled. Oil had another good day.

Wednesday March 27

The day started with the RBNZ joining the dovish CB chorus. The kiwi fell sharply, finishing nearly 2% down on the day. Also Trump potential Fed nominee Stephen Moore called for a policy reversal and rate cut. Yields naturally fell again, but surprisingly USD held its own with DXY adding 0.17%, in a mixed day where JPY advanced as rates fell, as did GBP, but others declined. Gold and Oil were down in line with the stronger dollar. The dovishness caused an early rally in SPX futures, but this sold off hard at the open despite the trade balance beat, and did not fully recovery. DAX and FTSE were choppy but ended roughly flat helped by weaker currencies. NKY fell all day. An odd day, where markets behaved counter-intuitively.

Thursday March 28

Markets recovered on Thursday as the US QoQ GDP and PCE beats at 1230 (although the YoY figure missed). Housing and Jobless Claims data was mixed. All indices were up on the day. DXY was up again, only 0.17% but all currencies were down, GBP sharply (over 1%) as British MPs voted down a series of alternatives to the Prime Minister’s deal. Gold was notably down 1.5%. Oil dipped during the session on growth expectations, but ended the day flat.

Friday March 29

A final rally on Friday, fuelled by China trade talks optimism, and another upturn in the Michigan Sentiment Index gave the indices their best quarterly increase since 2010, and the best SPX Q1 since 1998. A flat DXY belied substantial currency movement, in particular an immediate 0.68% move up in CAD after the GDP MoM beat at 1230 (0.3% vs 0.0% best), and a wildly choppy GBP after the third Brexit deal vote was lost, down 1.16% on the day. Yields carried on upwards, and Oil rallied in line with equities.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

After last week’s work performance, DAX was the best index this week. Four weeks in a row now for GBPJPY as the biggest mover, like last week a sell. Cryptos had another quiet week.

We have problems with Google Finance data this week, so no table

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• RBA Rate Decision
• More China trade talks
• Lots of Manufacturing data
• Non-farm Payrolls
• 
  

Monday April 01

This week Chinese Premier Liu travels to the US to continue trade talks. One of the busiest Mondays in months has a day packed with Manufacturing PMIs. China’s is very important, as it’s on the cusp on expansion/contraction, and may cause even more of an effect than the US ISM figure later in the day. Note that the UK and Europe are now on DST, but we stick with GMT in our listings. Also of course we start a new month and quarter.

01:00 CNY China Mfr & Non-Mfr PMIs (Sunday)

23:50 JPY Japan Tankan Large Mfr Index/Outlook (Sunday)

00:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)

01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Mar (est 49.9 prev 49.9)

07:55 EUR Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI

08:30 GBP UK Markit Manufacturing PMI

09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI (Core est 1%)

12:30 USD US Retail Sales (Feb Control Group best 0.4% prev 1.1%)

13:30 CAD Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI

13:45 USD US Markit Manufacturing PMI

14:00 USD US ISM Manufacturing PMI (est 54.4 prev 54.2)

21:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ)

Tuesday April 02

The big story is the RBA statement, where traders will be looking for a repeat the RBNZ dovish line last week. Fed Bostic (dovish, non-voter) speaks today. Argentina's markets are closed today. There is a rate decision on RON (2.5% hold expected)

00:30 AUD Aus Building Permits (MoM)

03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision/Statement (est 1.5% hold)

06:30 CHF Switzerland CPI

09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate

09:30 GBP UK Markit Construction PMI

12:30 USD US Non-defense Capital Goods (est 0.3% prev 0.8%)

14:00 NZD NZ GDT Milk Index

20:30 WTI API Oil Stock

Wednesday April 03

Unusually quiet for a Wednesday on the data front. Watch for the ADP print, an indicator for Friday’s NFP. Fed Mester (hawk, 2019 voter) speaks today. There is a rate decision on PLN (1.5% hold expected)

00:30 AUD Aus Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)

00:30 AUD Aus Imports/Exports/TB

01:45 CNY China Caixin Services PMI

08:00 EUR Eurozone Markit PMI Composite

08:30 GBP Markit Services PMI

09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY)

12:15 USD US ADP Employment Change

13:45 USD US Markit Services/Composite PMI

14:00 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (est 58.7 prev 59.7)

14:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock

Thursday April 04

Another slow data day. Fed Bostic is on again today. There is a rate decision on INR (6.25% hold expected)

06:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)

12:30 USD Jobless Claims

14:00 CAD Canada Ivey PMI

21:30 AUD Aus AiG Performance of Construction Index

23:30 JPY Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY)

Friday April 05

US and Canadian NFPs as always almost guarantee USDCAD volatility. After last month’s shocker, traders will be looking to see if there is any further shutdown effect on the March report. It's the end of the UK income tax year today. Hong Kong and China are closed for Ching Ming.

05:00 JPY Japan Leading Economic Index

06:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)

12:30 USD US NFP/AHE/Unemp/Participation (est 175k prev 20k)

12:30 CAD Canada NFP/AHE/Unemp/Participation (prev 55.9k)

17:00 WTI Baker Hughes Rig Count

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of the ads interest you, please click on them. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here

Week to Mar 7th

Growth forecast cuts in China, Europe and Canada, Worst US TB since 2008

Mon Mar 04

Despite encouraging remarks from President Trump at the weekend, and another call for a weaker dollar, a rally in China during the Asian session did not prevent optimism from fading in the US markets and SPX close down 0.4%. DAX and NKY followed suit although FTSE advanced as GBP faded some its Brexit hopes gains. Yields fells on stock-bond rotation.

President Trump also called for a weaker dollar again, but this had no effect, with all currencies except JPY declining slightly, in line with the equity softening. Gold fell in line, although Oil managed to move up after Friday’s sharp fall.

Tuesday March 05

Mixed US data left equities directionless today. The situation was better in Europe after UK, German and Eurozone PMI beats at 0855, and DAX and FTSE were both up slightly. The dollar benefited from continuing EUR weakness ahead of the ECB meeting, with DXY advancing 0.24%, and CAD and JPY also fell slightly, and GBP was flat, as was Gold. Oil was choppy but ended slightly up, whereas yields fell for a second day. AUD hardly moved after the rate hold.

Wednesday March 06

Markets faltered again today on the US trade balance miss at 1330, the worst deficit since 2008, together with the ADP miss at the same time, and all indices were down, even FTSE. Yields were down 3.2bp, and JPY was up in line with the risk off mood. DXY was flat (as was Gold), with small recoveries (after two days decline) in EUR and GBP balancing a sharp drop in CAD (only 9.1% of the basket) after gloomy growth forecasts from the BoC at 1500 and mixed Ivey PMIs at the same time. AUD dropped sharply by nearly 1% on the Australian Q4 GDP miss. Oil ended slightly up, with the usual choppiness around the EIA print at 1530. The headline missed, but the Gasoline estimate beat.

Thursday March 07

Another day, another problem. Following the record US trade deficit and the BoC forecast, today the ECB downgraded growth forecasts for the giant Eurozone, and more significantly reversed policy from tightening (the end of bond buying in December) back to easing by a new TLTRO program. The forecast was expected, the TLTROs were not, and EUR fell 1.27% during the next six hours. US, Japanese (futures), and UK equities accelerated their fall. DAX had a short currency related spike up and then joined them.

DXY had its best day since June 2018, and rose 0.75%. As you would expect EURJPY moved even more (down 1.18%). Other currencies moved down, although notably, CAD did not suffer from its usual risk aversion, having softened the day before. Gold was flat. Oil was up slightly again, staying in the 56.50-57.50 range it has held all week. Yield were down again, following the rotation principle rather than the stronger dollar. This is showing that the dollar was not really stronger, it is just EUR that is weaker, as evidenced by the move down in USDJPY.

Friday March 08

The February NFP miss (20k vs 180k) at 1330 gave us three bad days in a row. Small misses sometime push equities up on the theory that they will delay rate hikes, but this was the third-worst print since 2011, following a stellar (311k) January. No tweet from Trump today! Markets all slid down further, although there was a small rally in the last hour. Notably China fell 4% in Asia well before the NFP release.

DXY was down 0.26%, giving back a third of its Thursday gains, with all currencies up, in particular big moves up in JPY and Gold, and down in Oil in line with the equity fade, although the latter recovered somewhat into the close. The Canadian NFP beat had a surprisingly modest effect, with USDCAD only down 0.28%, no more than DXY as a whole. Yields were down 5bp on rotation or dollar tracking.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

Despite the stronger yen, NKY was the biggest index decline this week. The strong yen also made shorting GBPJPY (down 2.35%) the best forex trade of the week. Cryptos went to sleep again after a brief burst of activity last week. Another mixed week for FANGs with a surprisingly strong performance from FB.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Yet another Brexit ‘high noon’
• BoJ Rate Decision
• US Inflation release
• US/Europe DST disconnect

Monday March 11

Today is the first day of the bi-annual one-hour disconnect between the start of daylight saving (summer) time in North America and Europe. The first effect is the Retail Sales print, an hour earlier for European traders, coming after the worst figure since 2001 last month. Our times remain on GMT, as they will when Europe enters DST.

21:45 NZD NZ Electronic Card Retail Sales (Sunday)

00:00 EUR Eurogroup meeting (all day)

07:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production/Trade Balance

12:30 USD US Retail Sales Jan (Control Group est 0.6% prev -1.7%)

13:00 GBP BoE Haskel speech

Tuesday March 12

Today, we have another attempt by embattled UK PM Theresa May to get her Brexit deal through the British Parliament. The vote seems likely to fail again, at which point the saga moves to later votes in the week. US inflation (one leg of the Fed’s dual mandate) will inevitiably affect USD if it is well off estimates. Fed Chair Powell is due to speak at some time today (unconfirmed).

00:00 EUR EcoFin Meeting (all day)

02:15 CNY China FDI

06:30 AUD RBA Debelle speech

09:30 GBP UK Industrial/Manufacturing Production

09:30 GBP UK GDP MoM

12:30 USD US CPI (Core YoY est 2.1% prev 2.2%)

13:45 USD Fed Brainard speech

19:00 GBP UK Parliamentary vote on Brexit (time approx)

20:30 WTI API Oil Stock

Wednesday March 13

Provided the Tuesday vote fails (as expected), a (free) vote by UK MPs is expected to on whether it is acceptable to exit on Mar 29 without a deal. This is designed to be rejected, and almost certainly will be.  In the middle of this, the UK Spring Statement (Budget) is announced, with possible tax changes. A new US report, the unwieldy-titled Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft has been marked by commentators as important, more so that the normal Durable Goods release at the same time.

10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)

12:30 USD US Core PPI

12:30 USD US Durable Goods

12:30 USD US ND Capital Goods (est 0.1% prev -1%)

12:30 GBP UK Budget Report (time approx)

14:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock

Thursday March 14

If the two previous votes are rejected, today’s British Parliament vote is crucial. This will be to extend the exit date (probably to May 23). There may be amendments for a longer delay, or even a second referendum (polls suggest a new people’s vote would cancel Brexit). This is the least certain and therefore potentially the most volatile for GBP. China’s Industrial Production figures are important, given reactions to recent Chinese data. There is a rate decision on UAH (0.5% cut expected)

00:00 AUD Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations

02:00 CNY China Retail Sales/Industrial Production (YoY)

07:00 EUR Germany CPI (est 1.% prev 1.7%)

12:30 USD US Jobless Claims

14:00 USD US New Home Sales (MoM)

21:30 NZD Business NZ PMI

22:50 CAD BoC Wilkins speech

Friday March 15

After growth downgrades elsewhere last week, traders will be listening carefully for any similar views from the BoJ, so for once, this normally unimportant rate decision and statement may cause some JPY volatility. The Michigan Sentiment Index is estimated to fall further. The miss two weeks ago caused a sharp fall in SPX, and another could do the same.

02:00 JPY BoJ Rate Decision/Statement (est -0.1% hold)

10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI

13:15 USD US Industrial Production (MoM)

14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (est 93.0 prev 93.8)

18:00 WTI Baker Hughes Rig Count

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of them interest you, please click the links. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here

Week to Mar 1st

Brexit softening of position helps GBP, Tariff delay confirmed, Trump/Kim summit fails

Mon Feb 25

President Trump announced today that as there had been “substantial progress” in the US/China trade talks, he would be postponing the 15% increase in tariffs on $200Bn of Chinese imports. Although Chinese markets soared over 6%, the results were only modest in the US, Japan and Europe, which registered slight gains. DAX even retreated after the cash close. DXY had a flat day (as did Gold), with modest moves up in EUR, AUD and GBP being balanced by slight softening of CAD and JPY. Yields 

We have highlighted before the effect of President Trump’s tweets on his two favorite market subjects, the value of the dollar and the price of oil. Today he tweeted again that oil was too high, and  called on OPEC to “relax” Brent crude. The prices of both BNO and WTI quick dropped 3.2%.

Tuesday February 26

The big story of the day was UK PM May giving ground on Brexit, saying that if a vote for a deal could not be reached in time for the Mar 29 deadline, she would seek an extension. Sterling added over 1% on the news, which inevitably caused FTSE to fall (71% of the revenue of FTSE companies is from outside the UK). NKY moved down sharply in the cash session but recovered in futures to end the day flat, as did a volatile SPX. DAX continued to move independently and ended up.

The miss on US Housing Starts and Home Prices led to a weaker dollar, with DXY down 0.39%. Although not as strong as GBP, all currencies and Gold were up. Oil recovered 1% after the tweet crash. Yields were down in line with the weaker dollar. The Powell Humphrey-Hawkins testimony (summary: ‘patient’) did not add anything to what we already know.

Wednesday February 27

Another down day in equities as USTR Lighthizer testified to the House that a China trade deal was not yet certain, and would be a “long process”. Although not directly market-related, it didn’t help that Pakistan shot down two Indian military jets in Kashmir. Also the US Trade Balance (1330), Capital Goods, and Factory Orders (both 1500) reports were all down on the previous figure. World markets followed suit, although NKY managed to close flat in futures helped by the weaker yen.

The Brexit softening by PM May was accompanied by softening from both the hardline (want out, don’t care about a deal) ERG group in her party, and also the opposition Labour Party. Sterling continues to rise to its highest level in nearly eight months. Further oil recovery on the strong EIA beat at 1530 helped CAD, which despite a miss on annualised CPI, improved core monthly to 0.3% from -0.2% previously. Other currencies and Gold fell, resulting in a flat dollar basket. Yields were unusually up 4bp today, following USDJPY on part two of the Powell testimony.

Thursday February 28

Another down day after the failure of the Trump/Kim summit, where no progress was achieved. Also the long-awaited US Q4 GDP print at 1330, which beat estimates (YoY 2.6% vs 2.3% est, but was still well down on Q3 (3.4%). US Jobless Claims also missed. The markets are also working off an overbought condition after the strong 10-week bull run. Only DAX managed to post a small gain. The GDP print gave DXY a small boost (up 0.11%) with all currencies (even GBP) and Gold softening. Yields were up again. Oil continued its post Trump tweet recovery.

Friday March 01

Markets recovered again today, buoyed initially by the Chinese Manufacturing PMI beat at 0145, and German (0855) and Eurozone (1000) unemployment beats. The mood continued into the US Open, but was sharply halted by the double whammy of misses on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment (93.8 vs 95.7) and ISM Manufacturing PMI/Prices Paid at 1500. SPX dropped 0.73% in the two hours after the print. However, it then went on to fully recover into the close.

The GDP feelgood factor continued today with DXY up 0.22%, and all currencies and Gold down. However over half of the move was a plummet by CAD after the severe Q4 YoY GDP miss (0.4% vs 1.2%). The loonie is 9.1% of DXY, and fell 1.32% after the print, meaning if it had gone the other way, DXY would have been flat. The CAD move was accentuated by a 2.5% drop in Oil, fuelling by the ISM PMI miss.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

A strong recovery from DAX this week, as it beat US indices and was the best performer. For the first time this year, we have a strong divergence in forex, with GBPCAD easily the biggest mover, up 2.26%. Last week’s crypto rally was short-lived, with BTC and ETH down again. A mixed week for FANGs, which were more volatile than the underlying NDX.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

• Rate decisions in EUR, CAD and AUD
• Non-farm payrolls in US and Canada
• Australian and Eurozone Q4 GDP
• China’s main political conference

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

Monday March 04

A quiet start to a busy week, with limited scheduled news, so as usual, the trade war and Brexit will dominate. Brazil and Argentina are closed for two days for Carnival. India is also closed for Mahasivarathri Day.

00:30 AUD Aus Building Permits (MoM)

09:30 GBP UK Markit Construction PM

Tuesday March 05

The 13th National People’s Congress in China is expected to produce economic growth targets going forward, and review intellectual property and technology transfers, key areas in the trade dispute. The key scheduled event is the RBA rate decision. Fed Rosengren (hawk, 2019 voter) speaks at 1230, followed two hours later by Kashkari (dove, 2020 voter). Barkin (hawk, non-voter) is also on. Brazil and Argentina remain closed.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Services PMI

03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision/Statement

07:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales (MoM)

09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit PMI Composite

09:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI

10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY)

14:00 NZD NZ GDT Milk Index

14:45 USD US Markit Services/Composite PMI

15:00 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

15:00 USD US New Home Sales (MoM)

19:00 USD US Monthly Budget Statement

21:30 WTI API Oil Stock

23:01 GBP UK BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)

Wednesday March 06

The Canadian rate decision is expected to be a hold, but watch out for Gov Poloz remarks. It’s Australia’s turn to report Q4 GDP, which we have seen has moved markets in other countries. The ADP ‘sneak preview’ jobs estimate is 190k, 10k more than the NFP estimate for Friday. Fed Williams (hawkish, 2019 voter) and Mester (hawk, 2019 voter) both speak at 1700. There are also rate decisions on TRY and PLN. Brazil and Argentina reopen.

00:00 CNY China PPI

00:30 AUD Aus GDP Q4

12:15 GBP BoE Cunliffe speech

13:15 USD US ADP Employment Change

13:30 USD US Trade Balance

15:00 USD US Factory Orders (MoM)

15:00 USD US New Home Sales (MoM)

15:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision/Statement

15:00 CAD Canada Ivey PMI

15:30 WTI EIA Oil Stock

19:00 USD Fed Beige Book

21:30 AUD Aus AiG Performance of Construction Index

Thursday March 07

Another day, another rate decision, this time the key Eurozone figure. A hold is virtually certain, but as always it’s the report and press conference 45 minutes later which will be examined. The third day of Fed speeches as well, this time Brainard (was dovish, now centrist, 2019 and 2020 voter) is on at 1715. BoE Tenreyro speaks at 0930.

00:30 AUD Aus Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)

00:30 AUD Aus Imports/Exports/Trade Balance

05:00 JPY Japan Leading Economic Index

09:30 GBP BoE's Tenreyro speech

10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q4

12:30 USD US Jobless Claims

12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision/Statement

13:30 USD US Trade Balance

13:30 USD US Nonfarm Productivity/Unit Labor Costs

13:30 EUR ECB Draghi Presser

13:30 CAD Canada International Merchandise Trade

23:30 JPY Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY)

Friday March 08

Simultaneous US and Canadian NFPs offer strong volatility for USDCAD today. As usual, the AHE figure may be more important than the jobs print itself. This is the final day before the US/Europe summer time disconnect. For the next three weeks, for Europeans, US markets will appear to open an hour earlier (1330 GMT), and for Americans, Europe will appear to run an hour later, closing at 1230 EDT. ECB Mersch (hawkish) speaks at 1630. Fed Chair Powell may also speak.

02:00 CNY China Imports/Exports/TB

09:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM)

13:30 USD US NFP/AHE/UE/Participation/Productivity

13:30 CAD Canada NFP/UE/AHE/Participation

18:00 WTI Baker Hughes Rig Count

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of them interest you, please click the links. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here

Week to Feb 22nd

Four day week in US markets, Oil climbs for a second week, FTSE100 underperforms

Mon Feb 18

US markets were closed today for President’s Day (George Washington’s birthday), and SPX and bond futures were flat, as was Oil. However Asian markets were strong. The sentiment did not transfer to DAX, which was down. FTSE fared better after news of a firm post-Brexit Australian trade agreement, although it sold off at the very end of the day to end flat. Without US news, the dollar was directionless. DXY was down a mere 0.15%, with AUD and JPY up, but other currencies were up slightly.

Tuesday February 19

Despite an EPS beat WMT, US markets were only slightly up (DJIA was flat), with little reaction to the confirmation from President Xi that trade talks would continue in the US, after the sixth(!) round finished in Beijing. Other markets were down in their cash sessions but recovered in late futures trading to end roughly flat. DXY was down 0.29%, with notable moves up from all currencies and Gold, the exception being JPY which fell 0.3% on a dovish statement from BoJ Governor Kuroda, before ending the day flat. Oil was also flat on the day, 10-year yields were down 3bp in line with USD.

Wednesday February 20

Equities moved up today after the Fed minutes offered little in the way of surprises, given the various speeches since the last release. There was little other news to move markets. DXY fell slightly at the time of the release but ended the day flat. Currencies showed slight and indecisive moves, with GBP and JPY slightly up and CAD a little down. Oil rose sharply at the US Open to finish the day over 1% up (despite the one day late API report which missed). Yields were flat.

Thursday February 21 

The mood changed today as the Mar 1 tariff hike deadline approaches. After a rally in futures before the open, SPX fell fast, and ended the day 0.4% down. Other markets followed suit, with FTSE falling particularly hard, down 0.85%, following profit warnings from CNA.L and BA.L The German Manufacturing PMI miss (47.6 vs 49.7) had relatively little effect on DAX or EUR, in fact it was yet another flat day for DXY (up 0.10%) with EUR and GBP hardly moved, although JPY and Gold were up, and AUD and CAD were down in line with the risk-off mood, the former losing 1% after a dovish report from Westpac and news of Chinese restrictions on Australian coal. Oil gave up a little of yesterday’s gains. Yields were surprisingly up 4bp.

Friday February 22

Today President Trump said it was “more likely than not” that a China trade deal would happen, and this was enough to reverse Thursday’s decline. All equity markets were up, although non-US markets came off a little after their cash sessions closed. USD was down today, but again it was slight with DXY only down -0.13% due to another flat day on EURUSD. Other currencies, Gold, Oil and bond prices (inverse to yields) were up in line. 

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

NKY was the strongest index this week, adding 2.51%. In a reversal of last week where GBPNZD was the weakest pair, this week it was the strongest. It was a strong week for cryptos after months in the doldrums. Given the 0.50% gain in NDX, it was no surprised that FANGS were directionless.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Powell Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony
• Trade war deadline approaches
• Another key Brexit debate and vote
• Delayed US Q4 GDP released
• 
  

Monday February 25

As earnings season winds down, we have TCEHY (one of the Chinese ‘BAT’ tech stocks) and Dow component HD reporting before the bell. Fed Kaplan (dovish, 2020 voter) and Vice-Chair Clarida (centrist, 2019 and 2020 voter) are on a panel at 1500. There is little in the way of economic news, so as ever, macro focus will be on the China trade talks and Friday’s deadline.

21:45 NZD NZ Retail Sales (Sunday)

05:00 JPY Japan Leading Economic Index

13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index 

Tuesday February 26

After BoE Governor Carney testifies at the UK parliament inflation report hearings, and embattled UK PM May gives her latest speech on Brexit progress with the EU (not much, we expect), we have Fed Chair Powell giving his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to the House today.

07:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey

10:00 GBP UK Inflation Report Hearings (time approx.)

12:30 GBP UK PM May speech (time approx.)

13:30 USD US Building Permits/Housing Starts

14:00 USD US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

14:00 USD Fed Powell Humphrey-Hawkins Day 1 Testimony

15:00 USD US Consumer Confidence

21:30 WTI API Stock Report

21:45 NZD NZ Imports/Exports/TB

Wednesday February 27

Today President Trump starts a two-day meeting with DPRK leader Kim Jong-Un in Hanoi. The Senate have their turn with Jay Powell, with an unscripted Q&A. There will be yet another vote on Brexit, based on any changes reported by PM May the day before. The EIA stock report returns after several weeks.

10:40 EUR DE10Y Bond Auction

13:30 USD US Durable Goods

13:30 CAD Canada CPI

14:00 USD Fed Powell Humphrey-Hawkins Day 2 Testimony

15:00 USD US Pending Home Sales (MoM)

15:00 USD US Factory Orders (MoM)

15:30 WTI EIA Stock Report

18:00 GBP UK Parliamentary vote on Brexit

23:50 JPY Japan Industrial Production (YoY)

23:50 JPY Japan Retail Trade

Thursday February 28

The main release of the day, if not the week is the delayed preliminary 18Q4 US GDP report. Three Fed speakers today, Bostic (dovish, non-voter) at 1350, Harker (dove, 2020 voter) at 1715, and Kaplan again at 1800.

00:01 GBP UK Gfk Consumer Confidence

00:30 AUD Aus HIA New Home Sales (MoM)

01:00 CNY China NBS PMIs

13:00 EUR Germany CPI

13:30 CAD Canada Current Account

13:30 USD US Jobless Claims

13:30 USD US Preliminary GDP/PCE

14:45 USD Chicago PMI

21:30 AUD Aus AiG Performance of Mfg Index

21:45 NZD NZ Building Permits s.a. (MoM)

23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI/Unemployment Rate

Friday March 01

Today is the first day of the new month, and of course the end of the 90-day trade truce, and the date China tariffs are increased from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of goods. The shutdown-delayed December US PCE report (the Fed’s preferred inflation proxy) is released. Fed Bostic (dovish, non-voter) speaks at 1815. Italy presents its latest budget at 1000, which may result in a fresh row with Brussels. Markets in South Korea are closed.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

08:30 GBP UK Markit Manufacturing PMI

08:30 EUR Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI

08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change/Rate s.a.

10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate

10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI

13:30 USD US Core PCE Price Index/Personal Spending

13:30 CAD Canada GDP

14:45 USD US Markit Manufacturing PMI

15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

15:00 USD US ISM Manufacturing PMI/Prices Paid

18:00 WTI Baker Hughes Rig Count

23:30 JPY Japan Jobs/applicants ratio

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of them interest you, please click the links. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here