Week to Jan 21st

NDX collapse on rate hike fears, Oil makes 6-year high

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL NZDUSD

THIS WEEK

US indices were battered this week, over continuing concerns about tightening, exacerbated by the GS miss and other lukewarm earnings into OpEx day. The NFLX miss on new subscribers gave the stock its worst week in a decade, down 25%, which in turn pushed NDX down 7.5%, its worst week since the March 20 COVID crash. Heavily weighted AMZN fell 12%, its worst week since December 2018. The decline was considerably less in Europe, with FTSE briefly touching a new 2022 high before joining the trend. The dollar had an inside week, whereas yields briefly touched a two-year high before retreating, and German yields moved above 0% for the first time since early 2019. Gold rallied to a 9-week high in line with the market mood, and Oil briefly made a new 6-year high before pulling back.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The biggest index mover was NDX, down 7.51%. The top forex mover was NZDJPY down 1.81%. Bitcoin and Ethereum also fell heavily, and FANG fell even more than NDX. Red all over the place.

Last week's NZDCAD long position lost 0.26%, which when added to last week’s 0.33%, means I am ahead 0.07%, with 1/2 (50%) wins. This week I'll try selling NZDUSD, expecting a Fed dollar boost.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK

The final week of January sees the Fed rate decision, where the bar for hawkishness is high. It is also a key week of earnings season with nearly 30% of NDX reporting (AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, INTC) as well as DJI heavyweights IBM, JNJ and MCD. Also there is a Canadian rate decision, US final A4 GDP ad Australian inflation. A packed week for a depressed market to process.

CALENDAR  (all times are GMT)

Monday January 24
22:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank PMIs (Sunday)
08:30 Germany Markit PMIs (Mfr e57.0 p57.4)
09:00 Eurozone Markit PMIs (Comp e52.6 p53.3)
09:30 UK Markit Mfr & Svcs PMIs
13:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
14:45 US Markit PMIs

Tuesday January 25
00:30 Australia CPI (Trimmed Mean QoQ e0.7% p0.7%)
09:00 Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators
14:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices
15:00 US Consumer Confidence
21:00 MSFT ER

Wednesday January 26
10:30 Germany 10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)
15:00 BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)
16:15 BoC Press Conference
19:00 Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)
19:30 FOMC Press Conference
21:00 TSLA ER

Thursday January 27
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence
13:30 US PCE (QoQ)
13:30 US Durable Goods (e-0.5% p2.6%)
13:30 US Q4 GDP (e5.6% p2.3%)
13:30 US Jobless Claims
15:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM)(Dec)
21:30 AAPL ER
23:30 Tokyo CPI

Friday January 28
09:00 Germany Q4 GDP (QoQ p1.7%)
10:00 Eurozone Business Climate/Consumer Confidence
13:30 US PCE (MoM and YoY)
15:00 Michigan CSI