Very little to report this week. Equity markets rallied after the Christmas break and then faded away. Germany was closed on Friday. A new SPX high was made and NDX came very close. Oil was totally flat, and Gold and yields rose slightly as the dollar was slightly down. I have also done a review of the whole of 2021, posted in the same style as my weekly reports, immediately before this blog entry.
WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
The biggest index mover was NDX, down 1.49%. The top forex mover was long CADJPY up 1.97%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were well down, and FANG underperformed NDX.
Last week’s AUDNZD short made 0.05%, taking my total profit for 2021 to 6.49% and 35/51 wins. About the same as buying and holding the dollar all year. This week I will take the reversal and short CADJPY.
Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.
NEXT WEEK
A new year and a new month means NFP, with a more modest estimate than in the past, but still ahead of last month's shocker. All-important inflation reports from Germany, Eurozone and Japan, with estimates lower than last month, but other than that, only PMIs and an OPEC meeting. Earnings start the following week.
CALENDAR (all times are GMT)
Monday January 3
08:55 Germany Markit Mfr PMI
14:45 US Markit Mfr PMI
Tuesday January 4
01:45 China Caixin Mfr PMI
07:00 Germany Retail Sales (p-2.9%)
08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate/Change
09:00 OPEC Meeting
09:30 Markit Manufacturing PMI
14:30 UK Markit Mfr PMI
15:00 US ISM Mfr PMI (e60.2 p61.1)
Wednesday January 5
08:55 Germany Markit Composite PMI
09:00 Eurozone Markit Composite PMI
10:30 DE10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)
13:15 US ADP (e438k p534k)
14:45 US Markit Comp & Svcs PMI
19:00 FOMC Minutes
22:00 Aus CW Bank Services PMI
Thursday January 6
01:45 China Caixin Services PMI
07:00 Germany Factory Orders
13:00 Germany CPI (e5.6% p6.0%)
13:30 US Trade Balance
13:30 US Jobless Claim
13:30 International Merchandise Trade(Nov)
15:00 Canada Trade Balance
15:00 ISM Svcs PMI (e67 p69.1)
23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI
Friday January 7
10:00 Eurozone CPI (Core YoY e2.3% p2.6%)
10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (e5.6% p1.4%)
13:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e400k, p210k)
13:30 Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (p -154k)
15:00 Canada Ivey PMI
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