DAX forming classic H&S

The American indices have recovered from the small correction in the first few days of August, whereas the European ones haven't, each reaching recovery to a fib point. The German DAX, the one most strongly affected by Russia/Ukraine issues only made it back to the 61.8% level (9600), and is now falling again.

In the shorter term, a classic head and shoulders pattern is forming on the DAX which normally predicts a return to the neckline and beyond

A drop to 9430 seems inevitable, if not 9240.

It will however be interesting to see how this compares with the US indices, which are at all time highs.

Orosur hits resistance

I have today closed my Orosur Mining ($OMI.L) long position for a 3p gain as it has hit resistance (and the RSI has touched 70, signifying that it is overbought)

I will probably buy again below 14p

Plus 500 Minus 85

Plus 500 (PLUS.L), the Israeli CFD company whose interface makes GFT look slick, have posted great earnings yet their shares fell like a stone yesterday on immense, absolutely immense volume. 6 million shares traded against the normal 200-250k, and forming a bearish engulfing bar on the daily chart. A short last night was an absolute cert.

Looking at the chart I did at 1pm today, we had already done 2 million shares, so today's volume could well approach double that, and sure enough we are down some more. It is unlikely the support at 465p will hold, especially as we have now broken the 50 day simple moving average.

The share would have to recover to 480p (where the grey line is) by the end of today to avoid that, which seems very unlikely.

PLUS 500 DAILY

I don't know if this is anything to do with Evil Knievel, and his comments, but volume res ipsa loquitur as Boris Johnson might say. I remain short, with a TP of under 200p.

Does anyone know why Plus 500 don't offer spreadbetting. I only use them for BitCoin.

Controversial Quindell

The Quindell controversy probably started with Shareprophets, but everyone seem in on the act now, following the Gotham Research short note.


I am short from over 200p, but I keep adding, selling on lows, and then reshorting on highs. For this one I am using spreadex.com who have a much better range of AIM instruments than IG.


However, if you look at the chart, the volume spike on 4th August did not produce the same price drop as the previous volume spikes. I am therefore wondering if this has that much further to go.

Not to worry, I have a cash-positive stop on at all times. But I can't help thinking Tom Winnifrith's view is not shared by everyone.

First post

This is the first post in my stock market blog.

I am a day and swing trader, based in Bolton, near Manchester in the UK. I work largely through an IG Markets spreadbetting account, although I also have other accounts with CMC Markets, GFT, Plus 500 (for Bitcoin) and NatWest Stockbrokers, soon to be TD Direct Investing.

I will be posting my opinions on the market, mostly short-term and making predictions on market movements, normally backed by charts. I follow RSI(14D), SMA 50/200 for daily planning, and Fibonacci levels and simple previous reversals for daily and intraday.

I hope then to follow those predictions up with results as to accuracy.

You can read about me on LinkedIn (full bio), Facebook, Twitter and Stocktwits, or generally on the web as adatherton. My email is adatherton@gmail.com



David Atherton
Bolton
14 August 2014