Sunday 6 October 2019

Week to Oct 4th

Disastrous US PMIs, FTSE largest drop since 2015, AUD falls on rate cut

From this week onwards, I have expanded the popular 12 chart table to 16, to cover DXY, NDX, NZDUSD and the Fed Funds Rate futures contract which is used to predict rate hike/cut likelihood. The scale is inverted, ie when the chart falls, rate cut expectations are increased.

Mon Sep 30
The reports of Chinese stock delisting were denied by the White House (BABA gapped up 2.35%), and indices were up on the last day of the quarter, although mutedly after the Chinese Manufacturing PMI (0145), German inflation (1200) and Chicago PMI (1345) all missed. The dollar was up again all currencies (and Gold), although only very slightly on CAD. Nevertheless Oil and yields were both slightly down. So not really a risk-on day.

Tuesday October 01
Today was the new month, and indices were rising gently until hit hard by the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which came in at 47.8 (contraction) instead of 50.1 (expansion) as estimated. The risk-off effect was strong, SPX fell 1.7% by the end of the day and other indices followed suit. The dollar reaction was instantaneous, DXY fell 0.26% in a minute, and not just with JPY although obviously this fell more (0.45%). All currencies except Brexit-troubled GBP were up, as was Gold. Oil and yields were down in line.

Wednesday October 02
Markets continued to tumble today after the ADP jobs miss at 1230, with SPX posting its second one day 1% drop for the first time this year. Elsewhere was just as bad, and no-deal rhetoric from UK PM Johnson at his party conference added to FTSE problems. The British index fell 3.2%, the worst one-day performance since January 2016. Currencies and commodities were also similar to Tuesday, with USD and Oil down, bond and Gold up. Once again GBP was flat.

Thursday October 03
The companion ISM PMI from the non-Manufacturing (ie services, transport etc.) sector at 1400 also missed today, with the worst print for three years. The market dived again, but today, a sharp move in Fed Funds rate futures showed a sharply increased likelihood (the bad is good factor), and indices recovered, with SPX up 0.8%, and worldwide equities also in the green. USD fell again on the news, and only partly recovered. Again all currencies, Gold and yields were up, and Oil was down, so the trend was still risk off.

Friday October 04
Today’s NFP came in at 136k, a little below the 140k estimate, but in line with Wednesday’s ADP print. The equity market was relieved that it wasn’t worse, and behaved like a beat, with SPX adding 1.4% and worldwide indices also rising. DXY had the flattest day of the week, with reversing JPY and Gold balancing slight gains in other currencies. Oil was up in line with equities, but yields continued to fall, although only slightly, a risk-on day of sorts.

Only NDX managed a positive week. The worst index was FTSE, down 3.65%. The biggest forex move was CADJPY, down 1.47%. After a few few of volatility, cryptos were very quiet. FANG stocks did particularly well in a bad week, with AAPL the clear winner.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

  • US and German inflation
  • FOMC and ECB minutes
  • Trade talks restart
  • Large CB speaker roster

Monday October 07
With a quiet week for news, attention will no doubt turn to politics, both in the US and UK. Fed Kashkari (2020 voter, dove) speaks today. The Powell speech is only, of all things, opening remarks at the screening of a movie about the life of Marriner Eccles, 7th Fed Chair in Utah. Markets are still closed in China. There is a rate decision on ILS.

05:00 JPY Japan Leading Economic Index
06:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders
17:00 USD Fed Chair Powell speech
23:01 GBP UK BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)

Tuesday October 08
The Powell speech today in Denver, CO is about the ‘new’ and ‘old’ economies. Fed Evans (voter, dovish) and Kashkari (again) speak today. BoE Governor Carney is at climate-related summit in Tokyo. Markets reopen in China.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Services PMI
04:10 GBP BoE Governor Carney speech
06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production
12:30 USD US Core PPI
18:30 USD Fed Chair Powell speech

Wednesday October 09
Chair Powell’s tour continues today in Missouri, opening remarks again at a ‘community listening session’. More important is the release of FOMC September minutes relating to the last rate cut, and the reasoning behind it. The JOLTS job opening print is due today.

15:00 USD Fed Chair Powell speech
17:00 USD US 10-Year Note Auction
18:00 USD FOMC Minutes

Thursday October 10
US-China trade negotiations are scheduled to restart today in Washington. Although this is by no means final, any positive noises would probably lift markets. Fed Mester (2020 voter, hawkish) and Bostic (non-voter, centrist) speak today. A rate cut is expected on PEN.

06:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance
08:30 GBP UK Industrial/Manufacturing Production
08:30 GBP UK GDP (MoM Aug )
11:30 EUR ECB MPC Minutes
12:30 USD US Jobless Claims
12:30 USD US CPI (Core YoY e2.4% p2.4%) 
17:30 EUR ECB Lane (voter, dove) speech
21:30 NZD Business NZ PMI

Friday October 11
The week ends with a slightly livelier day. The Canadian jobs estimate of 40.2k is equivalent to 355k in US terms, (last month’s was equivalent to 716k!), as the US has 8.83 times the population. Fed Rosengren (voter, hawk), Kaplan (2020 voter, centrist) and Kashkari (again) speak today.

06:00 EUR Germany CPI (YoY e0.9% p0.9%)
10:30 EUR ECB De Guindos (voter, dove) speech
12:30 CAD Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e 40.2k p81.1k)
14:00 USD Michigan CSI (e92.0 p93.2)

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