Week to Oct 22nd

Strong earnings, New ATHs, Oil holds highs
MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL AUDNZD

LAST WEEK 

Helped by another week to strong earnings, markets started to pick up seasonal strength this week, and DJIA and SPX made new highs. European indices were weaker, with DAX and FTSE both posting inside weeks. The dollar continued to fall against all currencies, and particularly Gold, back over $1,800 for the first time in a month, although yields showed inflation was still a concern. Oil rose gently maintaining it’s 7-year high, although NatGas pulled back.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The biggest mover this week was SPX, up 1.64%. The top forex mover was NZDUSD this week, up 1.32%. Bitcoin and ETH were very flat after weeks of turbulence, and FANGs were once again variable, at odds with NDX as a whole.

Last week’s NZDCAD made 1.14% for me, taking my year to date profit to 4.23% and 28/41 wins. This week I am selling AUDNZD.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

Next week is the busiest for some time. We have the ECB meeting on Thursday, and also rate decisions from Canada and Japan. This is also the central Q3 earnings week with DJIA and particularly NDX heavyweights reporting including FB, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD, AAPL, and AMZN. We also have inflation from Australia, Germany and Eurozone, and Q3 GDP from the US, Germany and Eurozone. Finally, the last week in October (Hallowe'en) traditionally ends the summer doldrums, and moves the market into the November-April seasonally strong period.

CALENDAR (High volatility items in bold)

Monday October 25

08:00 Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators

12:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

13:00 BoE Tenreyro speech

21:00 FB ER

Tuesday October 26

08:00 ECB Bank Lending Survey

13:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices

14:00 US New Home Sales/Consumer Confidence

21:00 GOOGL, MSFT, TWTR, V ER

Wednesday October 27

00:30 Australia CPI (QoQ e0.7% p0.8%)

12:00 KO, MCD ER

12:30 US Durable/ND Capital Goods (NDC e0% p0.6%)

14:00 BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)

15:15 BoC Press Conference

23:50 Japan Retail Sales

Thursday October 28

03:00 BoJ Rate Decision/Statement (e-0.1% hold)

06:00 BoJ Press Conference

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate/Change

09:00 Eurozone Consumer/Industrial Confidence

11:45 ECB Rate Decision/Statement (e0% hold)

12:00 Germany CPI (e4.4% p4.1%)

12:30 US PCE QoQ

12:30 US Q3 Prelim GDP (e2.5% p6.7%) 

12:30 US Jobless Claims

13:30 ECB Lagarde Presser

14:00 US Pending Home Sales

21:00 AMZN ER

21:30 AAPL ER

23:30 Tokyo CPI

23:30 Japan Jobs/Unemployment

23:50 Japan Industrial Production

Friday October 29

00:30 Aus Retail Sales (MoM e-2.5% p-1.7%)

06:00 Germany Q3 Prelim GDP (e2.2% p1.6%)

09:00 Eurozone Q3 Prelim GDP (e3.5% p14.3%)

10:00 Eurozone CPI (e3.7% p3.4%)

12:30 US PCE MoM & YoY

12:30 Canada GDP MoM

13:45 Chicago PMI

14:00 Michigan CSI