Thursday 24 September 2015

GBPNZD False Bearish Breakout?

Yet another post from my course, this time challenging a fellow student who believes GBPNZD is about to break down. The technicals are good for this (see final chart), but I argue that the larger view, including NZD fundamentals, suggests the breakout is false.

Just to be contrary on this, I had a look at the technicals on GBPUSD D1, and we are very close, only about 60 pips away from strong long term support in the horizontal channel, following a disastrous few days for sterling. This suggests recovery at that point.

Conversely, when we look at NZD, this currency is also falling, although it has not fallen like GBP within September. Of more concern however is the dairy auction prices, the well-known soft commodity proxy for the Kiwi, you will note that after a year of falling prices, there have been continual substantial rises (highlighted) in the price of wholesale milk since August 15th.

However, when we look at NZDUSD for that period, the same dates (also highlighted) show no equivalent recovery in the currency.

and indeed, looking at NZD in the longer term, it is clear that it broke major support last month, and there is no real visible support all the way down to 2:1 parity. This is in line with the view of the RBNZ who want more and more devaluation, and at 2.75% prime rate, and no QE still have plenty of room to manoeuvre.

I have to therefore regard the apparent breakdown of GBPNZD as false, like in was on 23 August.

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