Week to May 28th

Final week of May, taper plans confirmed, markets flat

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL NZDJPY 

THIS WEEK
As the month closed (Monday is a holiday), last week was the final week of May. Markets moved up on Monday, perhaps after cryptos stabilised at the weekend, and held their position in a narrow trading range all week, after Fed Clarida said he thought the current inflation level was “transitory”, and despite Fed Daly and Quarles confirming that tapering was on the agenda.
The dollar had an overall flat week, although it briefly touched a new 5-month low. Yields were slightly down but well within the recent range. Commodities on the other outperformed, with Oil and Gold touching two and four month highs respectively.


WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
The biggest mover this quiet week was NKY up 2.94%. The top forex mover was NZDJPY up 2.84%. Crypto was relatively flat after recent big moves. FANGs were varied, but generally underperformed NDX.

CAD truly is unstoppable. Selling CADJPY cost me 0.73%, putting my running total back to -1.32% despite 14/20 wins. This week a different pair is the top mover, I will try reversing that, ie sell NZDJPY.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

Next week is the new month, with a four day week after Memorial Day. Markets are also closed in the UK on Monday for a Spring Bank Holid Of course NFP is the key event. The estimate at 621k is between the “good” March and April prints, and of course well above the shock miss in May. Coupled with the recent inflation trend, a good result will almost certainly be seen as a green light for QE taper, especially if the important ISM PMIs do not miss. The ADP report (on Thursday), with a slightly lower estimate, will of course be an indicator, although markets only tend to react on big ADP surprises.

The week is also packed with important non-US data, which could increase forex volatility, the risk being to the downside, given the weak dollar. Finally of course, we may see a scenario like 2019, where the market immediately reversed ‘Sell in May’.

Monday May 31

23:50 Japan Retail Trade/Industrial Production (Sunday)

01:00 China NBS PMIs (Mfg e51.1 p51.1)

12:00 Germany Prelim CPI (YoY e2.4% p2.1%) 

12:30 Canada Current Account

22:30 Aus AiG Performance of Mfg Index

Tuesday June 1

01:30 Aus Building Permits

01:45 China Caixin Mfg PMI

04:30 RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.1% hold)

07:55 Germany UnEmp Rate/Change

07:55 Germany Markit Mfg PMI

08:30 UK Markit Mfg PMI

09:00 Eurozone CPI (Core YoY e0.9% p0.7%)

09:00 Eurozone UnEmp

10:00 OPEC Meeting

12:30 Canada GDP (QoQ e7.0% p9.6%)

13:30 Canada Markit Mfg PMI

13:45 US Markit Mfg PMI

14:00 US ISM PMI (e61.0 p 60.7)

15:00 BoE Governor Bailey speech

18:00 Fed Brainard speech

Wednesday June 2

01:30 Australia Q1 Final GDP (QoQ e2.5% p3.1%)

06:00 Germany Retail Sales (YoY e-0.3% p11.0%)

15:45 ECB Weidmann speech

18:00 Fed Beige Book

22:30 Aus AiG Performance of Construction Index

23:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank Services PMI

Thursday June 3

01:30 Aus Imports/Exports/Trade Balance (TB e8.00Bn p5.57Bn)

01:30 Aus Retail Sales (p1.1%)

01:45 China Caixin Svcs PMI

07:55 Germany Markit Comp PMI

08:00 Eurozone Markit Comp PMI

12:15 US ADP Employment Change (e545k p742k)

12:30 US Jobless Claims

13:45 US Markit Svcs/Comp PMI

14:00 ISM Svcs PMI (e62.9 p62.7)

15:00 BoE MPC Hearings (time approx.)

16:00 BoE Governor Bailey speech

23:30 Japan Overall Household Spending

Friday June 4

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY e9.6% p12%)

12:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e621k p266k)

12:30 Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP p-207.1k)

14:00 US Factory Orders

14:00 Canada Ivey PMI

Week to May 21st

Crypto Crash, Equities Inside Week, Gold and CAD highs

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL CADJPY

LAST WEEK

After last week’s drop, stocks continued downwards in the early part of the week. Inflation concerns continued. Also a crackdown from China, and another tweet from the mercurial Elon Musk, caused a sharp collapse in the price of cryptocurrency, with BTC and ETH down 50% from recent highs at one point. Nevertheless, encouraging Jobless Claims and PMIs were enough to create a v-shaped week where no index moved more than 1%.

SPX, NDX and yields had full inside weeks, as did AAPL and GOOGL, and DJI, the other FANGs, Oil and the dollar all closed inside last week’s range, although DXY briefly touched a 13-week low (and within 0.5% of the four-year low). There were some exceptions. Gold had its highest close this year, and CAD, boosted by hawkish BoC policy from weeks ago touched a new 6-year high. But overall, the result was consolidation with a slight risk-off May bias.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

Indices overall ended near-flat with NKY the biggest mover. The top forex mover was NZDJPY as both currencies countered their current trend. Cryptos fell massively, in particular ETH. FANGs were much flatter than usual, in line with NDX.

With CAD’s unstoppable momentum, it was a good job I chose to sell it into JPY, the only CAD pair that fell. However a gain of 0.06% did little to help my running total, still underwater at -0.59% despite 14/19 wins. The pair is still overbought, so I will go with it again for this week.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Final week of May
• Light on key news
• Subdued Sentiment
• CB and TreasSec speeches

The final week of May brings a steady flow of data, but none of it likely to shock markets. The Fed’s preferred inflation method, PCE is reported, but the figures are likely to be in line with CPI already reported this month. There are only minor retail reports as earnings season closes. It seems therefore that the prevailing subdued trend associated with this month will play out until the end. 

CALENDAR

Monday May 24

11:05 BoJ Governor Kuroda speech

12:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

13:00 Fed Brainard speech

Tuesday May 25

06:00 Germany Q1 final GDP (e-3.0% p-3.0%)

08:00 Germany IFO Business Sentiment

13:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices/New Home Sales

14:00 US Consumer Confidence

16:00 BoE Tenreyro speech

Wednesday May 26

00:30 Aus Westpac Leading Index (MoM)(Apr)

02:00 RBNZ Rate Decision/Statement

03:00 RBNZ Press Conference

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index(Mar)

14:00 Fed Quarles speech

17:00 BoC Lane speech

19:00 Fed Quarles speech

Thursday May 27

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence

12:30 US Durable/ND Capital Orders (NDCO Apr e1.5% p1.0%)

12:30 US Q1 Prelim GDP Annualised (e6.5% p6.4%)

12:30 US PCE QoQ

12:30 US Jobless Claims

14:00 US Pending Home Sales

15:00 TreasSec Yellen speech

23:30 Tokyo CPI

23:30 Japan Jobs/Unemployment Rate

Friday May 28

09:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence/Business Climate

12:30 US PCE MoM and YoY (MoM e0.7% p0.4%)

12:30 US Personal Income/Spending

13:45 Chicago PMI

14:00 Michigan CSI

Week to May 14th

Highest inflation for a decade pushes markets (esp NDX) down, Oil Colonial hack

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL CADJPY

I have changed the format of our last week report to a single section covering the whole week.

The big story this week, as we indicated last weekend, was the inflation print on Wednesday, coming in at 4.2%, even higher than the 3.6% estimate and well above last month's 2.6%. The core figure (ex Food and Energy) came in at 3.0% (2.3% est, 1.6% previous). The main release was the highest since 2008, the core since 1982. Inflation targeting (current target 2%) is of course one the Fed Mandates, and despite the poor NFP this month, the release triggered fears of Fed QE Taper.

The fears, and consequent equity slide started at the beginning of the week, with a report from consumer expectations from the NY Fed and then bolstered by the Chinese PPI (6.8%, previously 4.4%) on Tuesday. SPX had already fallen 2.41% (NDX 2.68%), and fell a further 1.63% (NDX 2.62%) on the day, the worst 3-day run of 2021, and losing five weeks' gains. Continuing the rotation out of tech, DJI managed an intraday all-time high on Monday, and was the best performing index of the week. The DJI/NDX ratio has risen by 13.4% since the rotation started in February.

The market mood changed on Thursday, and despite US PPI at 4.1% (est 3.7% p3.1%) confirming the inflation trend, markets swiftly recovered part of the drop and SPX ended the week 1.39% down, about where it was two weeks ago. NDX did worse, it is now 7.9% off the highs. By comparison, the February pullback was 12.1%

Having ignored the NY Fed on Monday, the dollar also reacted quickly to CPI, but gave all its gains back on Friday. A similar story was seen in Gold and yields (which had an inside week). Oil's chart looked similar but for a different reason: it spiked up after a pipeline cyberattack closure, and fell on Thursday when the problem was fixed.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The pullback in inflation sent most indices red, with NKY the weakest down 4.34%. The top forex mover was GBPAUD up 1.56%. Another strong week for Ethereum, whereas BTC pulled back after a change of tune from Elon Musk. ETHBTC has advanced 179% in three weeks. FANGs fell broadly in line with NDX.

My GBPCAD long gained 0.58% making my running total -0.65%, 13/18 wins. CADJPY is heavily overbought, I will have another shot at shorting it.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

I have also changed the format of the next week commentary to a single paragraph covering the whole week.

Next week sees the minutes of the last FOMC meeting where traders will be picking through the minutiae of the wording, although we doubt that will move markets for more than a few hours, as the Fed's position is clear, no more, no less at the moment. Wal-mart lead the opening of the retail phase of earnings season on Tuesday. There aren't any major US releases this week, suggesting dollar moves will be driven from the other side. After the shock US inflation report last week, it's the turn of the UK, Canada and the Eurozone to report, and China, UK, Canada and Australia report Retail Sales, an inflation proxy. The week is notably heavy on CB speakers, with ECB President Lagarde on twice, and Friday is May OpEx day.

• UK, Canada, Eurozone inflation
• Retail Earnings Season
• FOMC Minutes
• OpEx Week

Monday May 17

02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY e24.9% p34.2%)

14:05 Fed Clarida speech

14:15 BoE Tenreyro speech

15:30 BoE Vlieghe speech

16:30 BoE Haldane speech

23:50 Japan Q1 Prelim GDP (e-1.2% p2.8%)

Tuesday May 18

01:30 RBA Meeting Minutes

06:00 UK Claimant Count/UnEmp/AHE (UnEmp e4.9% p4.9%)

07:00 EU EcoFin Meeting

09:00 Eurozone Prelim GDP (QoQ e-0.6% p-0.6%)

12:30 US Building Permits/Housing Starts

14:00 ECB President Lagarde speech

Wednesday May 19

00:30 Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence

01:30 Aus Wage Price Index

04:30 Japan Ind Production

06:00 UK CPI (e1.4% p0.7%)

07:20 ECB Panetta speech

08:00 EU Financial Stability Review

09:00 Eurozone CPI

10:30 DE10Y Bond Auction

12:30 Canada BoC CPI (Core e1.3% p1.4%)

15:50 ECB Lane speech

18:00 FOMC Minutes

23:50 Japan Imports/Exports/TB

Thursday May 20

01:00 Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations(May)

01:30 PBoC Rate Decision (e3.85% hold)

01:30 Aus NFP/UnEmp (NFP e15k p70.7k)

06:00 Germany PPI

08:00 ECB Lane speech

09:05 BoE Cunliffe speech

12:00 ECB President Lagarde speech

12:30 Philadelphia Fed Mfr Survey

12:30 US Jobless Claims

23:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank PMIs

23:30 Japan National CPI

Friday May 21

00:00 Eurogroup Meeting

01:30 Aus Retail Sales (MoM e0.5% p1.3%)

06:00 UK Retail Sales

07:30 Germany Markit PMIs (Mfr e65.8 p66.2)

08:00 Eurozone Markit PMIs (Comp e54.9 p53.8)

08:30 UK Markit PMIs (e62.0 p61.0)

12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM e2.3% p4.8%)

13:45 US Markit PMIs

14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Week to May 9th

NFP shock miss, Biden suggests vaccine patent waiver, Yellen remarks on inflation

MY CALL THIS WEEK : BUY GBPCAD

In a week that saw President Biden float the idea of revoking or limiting vaccine producers’ patents, and a large NFP surprise (266k vs 978k est) to the downside, delaying QE taper, the net result was new ATHs for DJIA and SPX, and the strongest rotation out of tech for nine weeks. Vaccine shares were, unsurprisingly, hit particularly hard. Sell in May may have been the cause of Tuesday’s pullback, the worst since March, but it didn’t last.

The safe haven dollar also hit a nine-week low, giving Gold its best week since November. Oil was up in line with the dollar and Dow. Bonds were slightly up on the week.

Next week should see further fallout from the NFP shock. The key macro report is US inflation on Wednesday, with a core estimate of 2.3%, well ahead of 1.6% and over the Fed target. A match or beat at this level may be taken as a pointer to QE taper. Earnings are quiet, with only DIS and BABA of note reporting.  

Mon May 3

Today saw what we can now call A vaccine rally, with a 1.14% variance in DJIA (+0.70%) and NDX (-0.44%), based on recovery hopes, reversing Friday’s fall. USD also reversed Friday’s rally, pushing Gold and Oil up, the latter also in line with stocks, particularly industrial stocks. Bonds were also up.

Tue May 4

A remark from TreasSec Yellen that “interest rates might need to rise” was enough to cause a sharp pullback, the worst since Mar 18th. NDX was down a huge 1.85% (AAPL down 3%), although DJIA managed to stay flat, more evidence of rotation. It was Turnaround Tuesday for currencies and Gold as the dollar reversed back up. Bonds were up in line. However, Oil continued to rise.

Wednesday May 5

Today was eventful. Janet Yellen clarified her remarks saying she did not foresee “an inflationary problem”.  Markets recovered. Meanwhile President Biden mentioned possibly waiving the patents on the vaccine drugs, causing an immediate sharp fall in MRNA, BNTX and other producers. Finally, the ADP report missed, but still showed a healthy improvement on last month. The net result was a positive day for DJIA, negative for NDX. The dollar  fell and Gold rose in line with equities. However bonds were up again. Oil reverses down, losing Tuesday’s gains.

Thursday May 6

Markets were flat most of Thursday, looking for direction after Wednesdays various news, and by the end of the day, took the positive view, and rallied strongly into the close. The dollar fell again, pushing Gold up. Oil carried on down. Bonds were flat. There was no change at the BoE, and GBP hardly moved.

Friday May 7

Markets had been expecting a substantial NFP, at least as much as the ADP print, so the actual print of 266k was a big miss. Markets saw this as “bad is good”, ie delaying QE taper, and rose sharply on the open, staying up all day, with new ATHs on SPX and DJIA. For the same reason, the dollar fell even more sharply than in previous days. CAD closed at 1.2132, its lowest close for six years. Bonds spiked up on the NFP print, but immediately fell again. Oil completed an inverse-V shaped week.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

A breakout week with DJIA the best performer at 2.67%, and NDX the worst at -1.02%. The top forex mover was NZDUSD up 1.62%. ETH surged ahead of a flat BTC. In the last four weeks ETH has outperformed BTC by 86%! FANG stocks in general underperformed NDX, with AMZN particularly down as the ‘COVID trade’ unwinds.

After five weeks of wins, I got CADJPY wrong, it went up, and I lost 0.65%, making my running total 12/17, but sadly a -1.23% running loss.vWith USDCAD at a six-year low, I will take a chance on it reversing. GBP looks like the strongest at the moment, so I will buy GBPCAD, which is at/near support. 

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• US Chinese and German inflation
• US and Australia Retail Sales
• Various CB speeches
• DIS and BABA earnings

Monday May 10

As is often the case, a quiet Monday.

01:30 Australia Retail Sales (e1.4% p1.4%)

23:30 Japan Overall Household Spending

Tuesday May 11

ZEW sentiment may reflect EU citizens view of their governments’ vaccine programmes. There is a Treasury auction of $58Bn of 3-year notes today.

01:30 China CPI (YoY e1.0% p0.4%)

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment

09:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment

14:30 Fed Williams speech

14:30 BoE Governor Bailey speech

Wednesday May 12

The most important print of the week is US inflation today. The estimate is above the Fed target, and if this is matched or beaten, we could see a stocks reversal, anticipating taper. The Treasury auction $41Bn of the bellwether 10-year note today. There is a rate decision in Romania.

00:30 Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index

06:00 UK Mfr/Ind Production

06:00 UK Q1 Prelim GDP (e0.5% p1.3%)

06:00 Germany CPI (e2.1% p2.1%)

09:00 BoE Governor Bailey speech

09:00 Eurozone Ind Production

10:00 UK NIESR GDP Estimate (time approx.)

12:30 US CPI (Core YoY e2.3% p1.6%)

13:00 Fed Clarida speech

18:00 US Monthly Budget Statement(Apr)

23:50 Japan Current Account

Thursday May 13

There is a $27Bn auction of 30-year paper today. Chinese giant BABA and Dow stalwart DIS report today. There is a rate decision in Mexico.

01:00 Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations

12:00 BoE Cunliffe speech

12:30 US PPI

12:30 US Jobless Claims

15:00 BoC Governor Macklem speech

16:00 BoE Governor Bailey speech

Friday May 14

Retail Sales has less ‘bite’ than CPI as an inflationary measure but in the event of an inconclusive CPI, may have some effect, especially on a strong beat.

10:30 DE10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)

11:30 ECB MPC Minutes

12:30 US Retail Sales (Apr Control Group e0.8% p6.9%)

14:00 Michigan CSI (May Prel e89.5 p88.3)

Week to Apr 30th

FANG earnings blowout, Dovish Fed despite recovery, Intraday ATHs

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL CADJPY

As we approach the traditional weak summer market, there were clear signs of the market being ‘toppy’. The tech giants all reported blowout earnings and revenue, but the market response for some was only moderate. When AAPL announces a 54% increase in sales, double-digit unit growth in every line, a 7% dividend increase and an additional $15 billion in buybacks, and is still down on the week, the market is telling you something. Nevertheless, the CNN Fear & Greed Index actually pulled back last week, and both SPX and NDX hit new highs but ended the week flat or down.

The Fed sounded hawkish on the economy, but dovish on action, with Jay Powell saying one great jobs report is not enough. The dollar duly fell but recovered by the end of the week. Notably CAD outperformed, following last week’s uber-hawkish BoC. Gold and bonds were also flat on the week. Notably crypto took off again.

Next week may show Powell another great jobs report, the estimate is 950k, in line with last month. It is of course also the start of ‘Sell in May’, which happened on the dot in 2019 (2020 was a special case). Otherwise we have the pause in earnings before the retailer phase, and rate decisions from the UK and Australia.

Monday April 26

Friday’s rally continued today, although only moderately. NDX outperformed. We are also starting to see divergence between DJI and SPX. You can see from the table that results for the three indices are different each day. The dollar was slightly up although this was only really against EUR and JPY. Despite this, Gold was slightly up and Oil was slightly down. Bonds were flat on the day.

Tuesday April 27

TSLA beat on earnings Mon night, but hardly moved today. Risk appetite was weak, as markets retreated slightly and NDX underperformed. The dollar was flat with only the yen noticeably down. Gold and Oil reversed Monday’s moves and bonds were again flat. An indecision day.

Wednesday April 28

Today’s Fed meeting acknowledged the strong recovery, but Chair Powell kept up the dovish tone, saying that one good jobs report (last month’s 916k) is not enough [to start taper]. Markets reacted oddly. The strong GOOGL beat only added 3%, and both DJI and NDX fell, yet SPX managed to stay flat. The dollar fell on the Powell comments, as did yields, and Gold was up in line. Oil rose for a second day, helping CAD with it.

Thursday April 29

After a neat on US GDP (6.4%), markets were back up today, but after futures hit another ATH, there was a sudden 0.68% selloff at the open, which was recovered in the US afternoon session, meaning that DAX closed sharply (0.9%) lower. This may have been a failed front-run at Sell in May. NDX underperformed, with AAPL down despite stellar results. Notably DJIA outperformed, and copper futures hit a 10-year high of $10,000 per tonne. The dollar reversed back upwards (except against the unstoppable CAD), dragging Gold back down. Yields rose again, and Oil had a fourth green day.

Friday April 30

Another tech blowout with little to show for it. AMZN sales were up 44% with EPS smashing estimates by 65%, and remember there were no pandemic lows for the e-com giant. Yet an AH/PM 4% spike was quickly reverse, and the stock closed only 0.37% higher. Overall indices were well down, with NDX performing worst. After beats on PCE, Chicago PMI and Michigan CSI, the dollar shot up, posting its best week since early March. Gold was down in line, as was Oil after a strong run. Bonds were flat on the day.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The week was fairly flat overall despite tech earnings, with no index moving more than 1%. The biggest move was NKY down 0.58%. The strongest forex mover was CADJPY up 2.95% to a two-and-a-half year high. Crypto surged ahead after its reversal. FANGs outperformed NDX overall, on earnings, except for AAPL.

I sold AUDUSD last week and made 0.21%, with the continuing odd effect that I have called it right 12 out of 16 times but the cumulative 2021 profit is still only -0.58%.  The extreme move in CADJPY and four weeks of reversing the most extreme pair means that I will sell that pair this week.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Non-Farm Payrolls
• UK and Aus Rate Decisions
• Earnings season pause
• First week of May

Monday May 3

The new month starts. Fed Chair Powell speaks at the ‘Just Economy’ conference. Main news is the ISM PMI. Markets are closed today in the UK and Japan.

01:00 Aus TD Securities Inflation

06:00 Germany Retail Sales (YoY e-3.1% p-9.0%)

07:55 Germany Markit Mfr PMI

13:30 Canada Markit Mfr PMI

13:45 US Markit Mfr PMI

14:00 ISM Mfr PMI (e65.0 p64.7)

18:10 Fed Williams speech

18:20 Fed Chair Powell speech

Tuesday May 4

The main news is the RBA rate decision. Markets are closed in Japan.

01:30 Aus Imports/Exports/TB (e+8000M, p7529M)

04:30 RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.1% hold)

08:30 UK Markit Mfr PMI

12:30 US Trade Balance

12:30 Canada Trade Balance

14:00 US Factory Orders

23:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank Svcs PMI

Wednesday May 5

The important ADP print is pitched lower than NFP this week. Markets are still closed in Japan.

01:30 Aus Building Permits

07:55 Germany Markit PMI Comp

08:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Comp

12:15 US ADP Employment Change (e808k p517k)

13:45 US Markit Svcs/Comp PMI

14:00 US ISM Svcs PMI (e73.3 p74)

23:50 BoJ MPC Minutes

Thursday May 6

Attention moves to the UK with the BoE decision.

01:45 China Caixin Svcs PMI

06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a.

08:00 Eurozone Economic Bulletin

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY e9.4% p1.2%)

09:00 RBA Debelle speech

11:00 BoE Rate Decision/Statement (e0.1% hold unanimous)

11:30 BoE Governor Bailey speech

12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity/Unit Labor Costs

12:30 US Jobless Claims

13:00 Fed Williams speech

Friday May 7

The first week of May ends with US and Canadian NFP, so expect USDCAD volatility.

01:30 RBA MPC Minutes

03:00 China Imports/Exports/TB (time approx.)

06:00 Germany Trade Balance/Ind Production

12:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e950k p916k)

12:30 Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP p303k)

14:00 Canada Ivey PMI