After a sharp COVID-driven drop on Monday, markets recovered on strong corporate earnings to reach new all-time highs. V-shaped (or inverted) patterns were also apparent in other markets, with Oil, yields GBPUSD, and FTSE posting long-tailed hammer candles for the week. The dollar was choppy, driven primarily by an equally choppy euro in ECB week, although the yen pattern was a lot smoother. The Nikkei was closed on Friday for a one-off public holiday for the Olympic opening.
WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
The biggest mover this week was NDX, up 2.93%. The top forex mover was CADJPY up 0.82%. Crypto recovered quite sharply. FANGS had a good week outperforming NDX.
My AUDNZD buy lost 0.09% taking my year to date profit to 4.50% and 20/28 wins. This week I will follow the hammer candle and buy GBPJPY.
Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.
NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)
(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)
The final week of July is the busiest in earnings season, with the remaining FANGS all reporting. Over 50% by weight of NDX reports, and the main event is after the bell on Tuesday, when AAPL, MSFT and GOOGL report. With other companies, this is 30% by weight of NDX reporting simultaneously. Also there is the Fed rate decision, where a 0.25% hold is 100% priced in. All eyes will be on the wording of the latest FOMC view on QE taper. Also this week are inflation report from Eurozone, Australia, Canada and Germany, and preliminary Q2 GDP from the US, Canada, Germany and Eurozone.
CALENDAR
Monday July 26
08:00 Germany IFO Sentiment Indicators
11:00 BoE Vlieghe speech
14:00 US New Home Sales
Tuesday July 27
07:30 BoJ Governor Kuroda speech
12:30 US Durable/ND Capital Goods (NDC e0.6% p0.1%)
12:35 RBA Debelle speech
13:00 US Home/Housing Price Indices
14:00 US Consumer Confidence(Jul)
21:00 Earnings MSFT, GOOGL
21:30 Earnings AAPL
Wednesday July 28
01:30 Australia CPI (RBA Trimmed Mean QoQ e0.5% p0.3%)
06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence
12:30 Canada CPI (BoC Core YoY e2.4% p2.8%)
18:00 Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)
18:30 FOMC Press Conference
21:00 Earnings FB
Thursday July 29
07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate/Change
09:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence/Business Climate
12:00 Germany CPI (e3.0% p2.1%)
12:30 US PCE QoQ
12:30 US Jobless Claims
12:30 US Q2 Prelim GDP (e8.2% p6.4%)
14:00 US Pending Home Sales
21:00 Earnings AMZN
23:30 Japan Jobs/Unemployment
23:30 Japan Retail Sales/Ind Production
Friday July 30
06:00 Germany Q2 Prelim GDP (QoQ e2.0% p-1.8%)
09:00 Eurozone Prelim CPI (Core YoY e0.8% p0.9%)
09:00 Eurozone Q2 Prelim GDP s.a. (QoQ e1.5% p-1.3%)
09:00 Eurozone Unemployment
12:30 US PCE MoM and YoY
12:30 Canada GDP MoM
13:45 Chicago PMI
14:00 Michigan CSI
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