Week to Sep 6th

Another ATH, NFP Miss, Weak USD

MY CALL THIS WEEK : SELL GBPCAD

LAST WEEK
In a week of new all-time highs for SPX and NDX, and lower highs for DJI and the majority of other global stock markets, the main focus was Friday’s NFP print and whether it would be strong enough to pave the way for a taper announcement in September’s FOMC meeting. In the end, the significant miss of 235k was likely weak enough to delay any announcement till November at least.  The USD was understandably weak and was also pressured by a stronger Euro, buoyed by hawkish comments from several members that suggest taper discussions are not completely one-sided, making next week’s ECB meeting all the more interesting.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
The biggest mover this week was NKY, up 5.38%. The top forex mover was again NZDUSD this week, up 2.00%. Bitcoin was flat but ETH moved sharply up. FANGs were generally much stronger than NDX itself.

My GBPAUD buy was a bad one, I lost 1.11% taking my year to date profit to 5.74% and 24/34 wins. This week I am shorting GBPCAD.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

The vacation period traditionally ends this week with Labor Day on Monday when US markets are closed. In any event, the focus for the week is outside the US with rate decisions in Australia, Canada and most importantly the Eurozone. The ECB is the laggard in tightening hints, and traders will be keen to see if their stance has changed. Also this week are inflation figures from China, and Germany, and GDP prints from Eurozone, Japan and the UK.

CALENDAR (High volatility items in bold)

Monday September 6
01:00 Aus TD Securities Inflation
06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)(Jul)
23:30 Overall Household Spending (YoY)(Jul)

Tuesday September 7
02:00 China Imports/Exports/TB (time approx.)
04:30 RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.1% hold)
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index
06:00 Germany Industrial Production
09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment
09:00 Eurozone Q2 Final GDP (e-0.6% p2.0%)
09:00 Germany ZEW Sentiment Indicators
23:50 Japan Q2 Final GDP (e0.4% p0.3%)

Wednesday September 8
08:10 RBA Debelle speech
10:00 DE10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)
14:00 Canada Ivey PMI
14:00 BoC Rate Decision/Statement (e0.25% hold)
17:10 Fed Williams speech
18:00 Fed Beige Book

Thursday September 9
01:30 China CPI (e1.0% p1.0%)
06:00 Germany Trade Balance
08:35 RBA Debelle speech
11:45 ECB Rate Decision/Statement (e0% hold)
12:30 US Jobless Claims
12:30 ECB Lagarde Presser
16:00 BoC Governor Macklem speech
18:00 Fed Williams speech

Friday September 10 
06:00 UK Manuf/Ind Production
06:00 UK GDP MoM
06:00 Germany CPI (e3.4% p3.4%)
12:30 US PPI
12:30 Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (UnEmp e7.4% p7.5%)