After a quiet three days in the run-up to Thanksgiving, market, markets showed how extended they were by a strong collapse on Friday, the worst one day drop of 2021 for equities and Oil. Gold once again showed its unreliability as a safe haven. A flat week for copper showed how the NDX drop (more than DJI) may have been more to do with their relative overbought conditions than the COVID news. The dollar had a flat week, although JPY and bonds rallied on the equity drop.
WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT
The biggest index mover was DAX, down 5.59%. The top forex mover was NZDJPY this week, down 3.37%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were down again, and FANGs reflected general NDX movement.
Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.
NEXT WEEK
As markets were still depressed on Friday, the COVID omicron variant is likely to depress markets as long it stays in the news. However, it is a new month and therefore NFP week. The mid-range estimate of 550k is close to the ADP figure which may change the mood, depending on course on further Omicron information. The week is heavy with Central Bank speeches including Fed Chair Powell's testimony to the Senate COVID committee on Tuesday.
Other than that, we have a raft of PMIs, including the most important ISM pair, German and European inflation, the latter's core still not exceeding 2%, and GDP from commodity pair Australian and Canada.
CALENDAR (all times are GMT)
Monday November 29
23:50 Japan Retail Sales (Sun)
08:30 BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
10:00 Eurozone Confidence Indicators
13:00 Germany CPI (e5.4% p4.6%)
13:30 Canada Current Account
15:00 US Pending Home Sales
19:00 BoC Governor Macklem speech
19:00 BoC Schembri speech
20:05 Fed Chair Powell speech
22:05 Fed Bowman speech
22:05 RBA Debelle speech
23:30 Japan Jobs/Unemployment
23:50 Japan Industrial Production
Tuesday November 30
00:30 Aus Building Permits (MoM)(Oct)
01:00 China PMIs (Mfr 49.6 p49.2)
08:55 Germany UnEmp Rate/Change
10:00 Eurozone CPI (Core YoY e1.9% p2.0%)
10:15 ECB Weidmann speech
13:30 Canada Q3 GDP (QoQ e2.5% p-1.1%)
14:00 US Housing/Home Price Indices
14:45 Chicago PMI
15:00 US Consumer Confidence
15:00 Fed Chair Powell testimony
18:00 Fed Clarida speech
21:30 Aus AiG Performance of Mfg Index
Wednesday December 1
00:30 Aus Q3 GDP (QoQ e-2.7% p0.7%)
01:45 China Caixin Mfr PMI
07:00 Germany Retail Sales (YoY e-2% p-0.9%)
08:55 Germany Markit Mfr PMI
09:30 UK Markit Mfr PMI
12:00 BoE Governor Bailey speech (time approx.)
13:15 US ADP (e525k p571k)
14:30 Canada Markit Mfr PMI
14:45 US Markit Mfr PMI
15:00 US ISM Mfr PMI (e61 p60.8)
19:00 Fed Beige Book
Thursday December 2
00:30 Aus Imports/Exports/TB (TB e11Bn,p12.2Bn)
10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate
13:30 US Jobless Claims
21:30 Aus AiG Performance of Construction
22:00 Aus Commonwealth Bank Svcs PMI
Friday December 3
01:45 China Caixin Services PMI
08:55 Germany Markit PMI Comp
09:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Comp
10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY e1.5% p2.5%)
13:30 US NFP/AHE/UnEmp (NFP e550k p531k)
13:30 Canada NFP/UnEmp (UnEmp p6.7%)
14:45 US Markit Svcs/Comp PMIs
15:00 US ISM Svcs PMI (e65.5 p66.7)
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