Sunday 7 November 2021

Week to Nov 5th

Taper confirmed, NFP beat, new ATHs



This week saw the Fed finally introduce taper, as widely expected, to start immediately at the rate of $15Bn per month, meaning the taper will complete in June 2022. The Fed warned that the programme may alter if conditions change. The equity market welcomed the certainty, in addition to a strong ISM PMI and further strong earnings, and hit new highs. As predicted by ADP, the first post-taper NFP was a firm beat, and without the "bad is good, tightening delay" factor, markets reacted as you would expect, rising to further highs. In fact markets made a high every single day this week. Markets took some profit into the Friday close.

Yields fell all week, as did most currencies against the dollar, strengthened by the taper announcement. The pullback in Oil from the multi-year highs, did not allow commodity currencies (AUD and CAD). The only unusual move was from Gold which rose despite the risk on and strong dollar.


The biggest mover this week was again NDX, up 3.21%. The top forex mover was AUDJPY this week, up 2.09%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were flat, and FANGs were variable but generally strong (except NFLX). My EURGBP long made 1.5% taking profit year to date to 5.77% and 29/43 wins.

Week to 5 Nov 21

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

Things are much quieter next week. The US Daylight Savings Time ends putting market hours back in line with Europe. Veterans/Armistice Day on Thursday is not a market holiday anywhere except France. The only notable macro event is US inflation, estimated to remain at 4%. Other than that there is Aussie jobs and UK GDP, and one major warnings report, DIS, on Wednesday.

CALENDAR (all times are GMT)

Monday November 8

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index

23:50 Japan Current Account

Tuesday November 9

00:00 HIA New Home Sales (time approx.)

07:00 Germany Trade Balance

10:00 Germany ZEW Economic Indicators

13:30 US PPI

17:10 BoC Beaudry speech

22:45 BoC Governor Macklem speech

23:30 Aus Westpac Consumer Confidence

Wednesday November 10

01:30 China CPI

07:00 Germany CPI (YoY e4.6% p4.6%)

10:30 DE10Y Bond Auction (time approx.)

13:30 US CPI (YoY e4.0% p4.0%)

13:30 US Jobless Claims

19:00 US Monthly Budget Statement

Thursday November 11

00:00 Aus Consumer Inflation Expectations

00:30 Aus NFP/UnEmp (NFP e50k p-138k)

07:00 UK Mfr/Ind Production

07:00 UK GDP (YoY p5.5%)

09:00 Eurozone Economic Bulletin

Friday November 12

10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production

15:00 Michigan CSI

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