Saturday 2 April 2022

Week to Apr 1st

Recovery continues with ruble up and oil down


Following a slight thaw in Ukraine/Russia talks, equity markets made new post-invasion highs this week but could not hold them, falling back into last week’s range, with a V-shaped after the slight NFP miss. NDX outperformed for the third week after months of underperformance. The quarter ended badly, the worst Q1 since 2020.

Oil fell heavily on news that the US is releasing some of its strategic reserve. The ruble appreciated 38% (70% from last weeks low of 0.6c), news that Putin is insisting on ruble payments from “unfriendly countries” for energy. Apparently this does not apply to EUR, the week’s strongest currency. AUD and NZD fell back after strong runs. Bond yields fell back from the highs, as did Oil. Gold is in it’s third week off the highs, and retraced last week’s gain. The yen hit a new six year low, prompting BoJ buying action.


The biggest index mover was NKY which rallied last week, down 1.72%. The top forex mover EURGBP up 0.99%. Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied again. Tech outperformed although FANGs were fairly flat.

Last week's AUDJPY short position lost 0.14%, which means I am ahead 3.94% this year, with 6/12 (50%) wins. This week I am banking on a further move down in JPY, and recovering EUR, and buying EURJPY

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on DXY. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.


Next week is light on US Data, with the key events Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes, and Tuesday’s ISM Services. CB speakers are heavy next week with four BoE and four Fed speeches. There is also the RBA Rate Decision, and trade balance figures from Germany, the US and Canada. Earnings season doesn’t start until next week with JPM on 13 Apr.

CALENDAR  (all times are GMT, volatile items in bold)

Monday April 4
06:00 Germany Trade Balance
08:30 BoE Mann speech
09:05 BoE Governor Bailey speech
14:00 US Factory Orders
14:00 BoE Cunliffe speech
14:30 BoC Business Outlook Survey
22:30 Aus AiG Perf of Construction
23:00 Aus S&P Global Services PMI
23:30 Japan Overall Household Spending

Tuesday April 5
00:30 Aus TD Securities Inflation (time approx.)
04:30 RBA Rate Decision/Statement (e0.1% hold)
07:55 Germany Composite PMI
08:00 Eurozone Composite PMI
12:30 US Trade Balance
12:30 Canada Trade Balance
13:45 US Composite/Svcs PMI
14:00 ISM Services PMI (e57.7 p56.5)
15:05 Fed Brainard speech
18:00 Fed Williams speech

Wednesday April 6
01:45 China Caixin Services PMI
06:00 Germany Factory Orders
14:00 Canada Ivey PMI
18:00 FOMC Minutes

Thursday April 7
01:30 Aus Imports/Exports/TB (TB p1.29B)
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (e4.2% p7.8%)
11:30 ECB MPC Minutes
12:15 BoE Pill speech
12:30 US Jobless Claims
13:00 Fed Bullard speech
20:05 Fed Williams speech
23:50 Japan Current Account

Friday April 8
12:30 Canada NFP/AHE/UnEmp (UnEmp e6.0% p5.5%)

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