Week to Feb 15th

Possible China tariff extension, Second shutdown averted, Big miss on US Retail Sales

Mon Feb 11

The threat of another government shutdown and President Trump confirming no meeting with his counterpart in China before the Mar 1 tariff deadline led to caution in the US equity market today, with SPX and NDX closing flat, although non-US markets were comfortably up, after last week’s Thursday/Friday pullback, following a bid in China markets as they reopened. DXY—which likes trade war tension—added 0.45% and broke 97 to make a new 2019 high. All currencies, Gold, Oil and 10-year bond price (inverse to yields) were down in line.

Tuesday February 12

A possible deal to avert the shutdown (despite Trump being “unhappy”) was enough to rally markets today with SPX up 1.3%. NDX and DJIA did even better. The story was the same in Europe and Asia, with NKY sharply up at the open after Monday’s holiday in Japan. FTSE could only break even on a stronger GBP. The dollar had a ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ and lost ground against all currencies. Gold and Oil were up in line, but bond yields carried on rising, up 2bp today, the same as yesterday. Fed Chair Powell’s speech had little effect.

Wednesday February 13

Global stocks continued upwards, as President Trump hinted at an extension (to the Mar 1st China tariff hike from 10% to 25%) if a “real deal” was close, although the gain (SPX up 0.3%) was muted after Senator Rubio tweeted that buybacks should be taxed. Buybacks are of course a major reason for market strength.

USD was strong overall after the CPI beat at 1330, with DXY up 0.53%. However (only) NZD bucked the trend, adding 1% after RBNZ said there would be no rate cuts for two years. GBP had a brief 70 pip spike on chatter about an Article 50 (Brexit) extension but this soon faded, and all currencies except NZD, and Gold were down. Oil was up again after comments from the Saudi energy minister, and evidence that cuts were being adhered to.

Thursday February 14

A miss on the final German Q4 GDP QoQ and working day adjusted figures at 0700 (although YoY beat, oddly), followed by a severe miss on the shutdown-delayed December US Retail Sales print (Core -1.85% vs +0.10% est) at 1330 (coupled with a Jobless Claims miss), was enough to send SPX sharply down over 20 handles at the US open, and to finish down 0.3% on the day. Global indices went the same way.  The Retail Sales miss also cause an instant spike down in yields and DXY. The basket finished 0.19% down. AUD joined EUR and JPY in appreciating, but GBP was weak all day, after the UK 10-year bond auction only fetched 1.16% (prev 1.27%). CAD was unusual. The relatively unimportant Manufacturing Shipments (MoM, Dec) print missed badly (-1.3% vs 0.2%), but this was enough to soften it by 0.5% (and 0.9% against JPY). Gold was up in line with the weaker dollar, but although Oil continued upwards. DJIA component KO matches EPS estimates, but reduced forward guidance by 1%, shares dropped 7.5% on the news.

Friday February 15

After falling in the European futures pre-market, DJIA soared on Friday, up 1.74% on trade war hopes, as President Xi said the two sides would meet again next week in Washington. The effect was more muted in NDX which is not as trade war sensitive, but global markets rose on the news, with DAX up nearly 2%. The effect was also helped by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment beat at 1500 (95.5 vs 93). After a brief spike up on the Michigan release, DXY ended slightly down as EUR and JPY were for once flat, but less components GBP and CAD rose. AUD was also sharply up on the trade news, helped by an $8 rise in Gold, and oil continued upwards. Yields were up on stock-bond rotation. At the end of the day President Trump decided he would use emergency powers to get his wall money. Markets were not affected.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

After being the weakest last week, DAX was the strongest index this week. DXY was only slightly up, with Brexit-troubled GBP the weakest currency. The reversal also applies in currencies, with last week’s loser NZD being the strongest, therefore shorting GBPNZD would have been the best trade. Another quiet week for cryptos and FANGs as the January volatility fades.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold)

• Four day week in US markets
• FOMC minutes hawkish risk
• Wal-Mart completes Dow earnings
• Knife-edge German PMIs

Monday February 18

US Markets are closed for President’s Day (George Washington’s birthday). Asia and Europe are of course open, but as always with US market holidays, a quiet day is expected. There is no significant news.

23:50 JPY Japan Machinery Orders

Tuesday February 19

China Trade talks resume and traders will be looking for soundbites. The earnings season is pretty much over now, but we have the final DJIA component (2.62% weight) China-sensitive WMT reporting before the bell (after last week’s fall in Retail Sales, WMT is the biggest bricks-and-mortar retailer in the world). Fed Mester (hawk, 2019 voter) speaks at 1350.

00:30 AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes

09:30 GBP UK AHE/UnEmp/Claimant Count Change (UnEmp e 3.9% p 4.0%)

10:00 EUR Germany ZEW Sentiment Surveys

14:00 NZD NZ GDT Milk Index

21:30 WTI API Stock

21:45 NZD NZ PPI

23:50 JPY Japan Imports/Exports/Trade Balance

Wednesday February 20

The most important day of the week, when we read the Fed minutes from their January meeting, where they calmed the market. The risks are to a less dovish internal discussion, which could be bearish for equities, ie neutral could be seen as hawkish. Fed Bullard (dove, 2019 voter) speaks in New York today, as does Kaplan (dovish, non-voter) at 1810. Again there is no EIA Oil stock print this week.

00:30 AUD Aus Wage Price Index (QoQ)

07:00 EUR Germany PPI

19:00 USD FOMC Minutes

23:50 JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks

Thursday February 21 

The German and Eurozone Markit PMIs are more important than usual because the German estimate of 49.9 is just on the wrong side of contraction/expansion, a move back over 50 would be bullish for DAX. Chinese ‘BAT’ company BIDU reports after the bell. Fed Bostic (dovish, non-voter) speaks today at 1250.

00:30 AUD Aus NFP/UnEmp (NFP e 15k p 21.6k)

04:30 JPY Japan All Industry Activity Index

07:00 EUR Germany CPI (e 1.7% p 1.7%)

08:30 EUR Germany Markit PMIs

09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit PMIs

09:30 GBP UK PSBR

13:30 USD Jobless Claims

13:30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey

13:30 USD Durable Goods

14:45 USD US Markit PMIs

15:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)

23:30 JPY Japan National CPI

Friday February 22

A Fitch credit rating for Italy is expected today, and the risk is to the downside (which may already be priced, you may remember when S&P didn’t change their outlook a few months ago, the MIB soared). Fed Bullard speaks again at 1830, as do Harker (dove, non-voter) and Quarles (hawkish, voter) at the same time. There are rate decisions on COP and LKR.

07:00 EUR Germany GDP

09:00 EUR Germany IFO Sentiment Surveys

10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI

13:30 CAD Retail Sales

18:00 WTI Baker Hughes Rig Count

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of them interest you, please click the links. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits or Linkedin (all open in separate windows). Details of how I compile the report are here

Week to Jan 25th

Mon Jan 21

US Markets were closed today for the Martin Luther King holiday, but poor data from China sent US futures down. DAX followed suit, although FTSE and NKY managed to remain flat. It was also a flat day for DXY, with small gains on the major currencies balancing a move down by commodity currencies AUD and CAD (and Oil), in line with the equity risk-off. Surprisingly Gold and JPY did not move up. Bond markets were closed.

Tuesday January 22

Markets continued downwards as the futures losses were translated into cash prices, not helped by mixed German sentiment reports at 1000, a miss on the US Home Sales print at 1500, and reports that the Trump administration had rejected an offer by the Chinese to travel to the US for preparatory trade talks. JNJ beat on EPS and revenue, but lowered guidance left the stock down on the day. IBM however, beat, and more importantly raised guidance. The stock soared after hours to open the next day 7.28% up.

GBP ramped on hopes of a no-deal Brexit, and the AHE and Unemployment beats at 0930. Risk-off responses were as usual. JPY (and Gold) was also up, but AUD, CAD and Oil were down. A slight fade in EUR left DXY flat as a whole. Yields rose briefly but ended flat on the day. There was a late rally from NZD following the CPI beat at 2245.

Wednesday January 23

An earnings beat for PG, and the IBM result from the previous evening gave SPX an early ramp, but this quickly faded with the index giving up 2% in two-and-a-half hours, to recover later and close the day slightly down. Due to their timing NKY and DAX eked out a slight gain, but FTSE fell all day in response to the stronger currency,  as GBP added nearly 1% on Brexit hopes, specifically the ruling out of ’no deal’. British lawmakers are seriously divided on what deal they want, but they all seem to agree that exiting without one would be disastrous.

DXY was down 0.2% as EUR also advanced, as did AUD and NZD. However CAD fell after the Retail Sales miss at 1330, and following Oil down, which was not helped by the API stock miss at 2130 (a day late this week due to the Monday holiday), and JPY retreated after the BoJ statement where the Japanese inflation forecast was cut, a rare example of JPY responding to Japan issues rather than the wider world. Gold and bond yields were flat on the day. Oil was unusual, it fell sharply just as the EIA report (which was a big miss this week) would have been released, but of course it too was a day later this week.

Thursday January 24

Equities were a bit directionless today, with further strong earnings sentiment being tempered by comments from TradeSec Ross that a deal with China was “miles away”. SPX and NKY were up slightly. DAX did better, benefiting from the fall in EUR, whereas for FTSE it was the reverse, as GBP appreciated. DXY was up 0.47% today, mainly due to a sharp decline in the single currency following gloomy European growth predictions from ECB President Draghi at 1330. AUD and NZD were also off despite the Australian jobs report beat at 0030. Only GBP bucked the trend, with EURGBP closing at a nine month low. Oil was up slightly despite the EIA miss (see Wednesday), and Gold was flat. Surprisingly yields were well down despite the stronger dollar. INTC reported after the bell, missing on EPS and revenue, and lowering guidance for 2019. Shares fell 7.2% after hours and in the Friday pre-market.

Friday January 25

The big story today was a report that the Fed is considering an early end to its balance sheet reduction program. After a quiet morning, markets all ramped on the news and the dollar crashed, with DXY down 0.78%. All currencies were well up, and Gold hit $1,300, a six-month high. Oil was up in line with equities. Yields were up as money rotated from stocks to bonds. Towards the end of the day, President Trump finally agreed to end the shutdown for three weeks, despite not getting his Mexican wall funding. If anything, the markets came slightly off on this.

Please note all figures and percentages given for daily movement on indices are for the cash period. Currency moves are stated in relation to the US dollar. Dollar moves are referenced from the UUP ETF, which reflects DXY.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

The ramp on Friday meant most markets ended more or less flat on the week, with only FTSE well down on a strong pound. The strongest currency by far was GBP, adding 2.48%, so buying GBPUSD was the best trade. Cryptos had a quiet week, as, in the end did the FAANG shares, in advance of AAPL and AMZN earnings.

Note we use Google Finance data for daily movements, listing UUP as a proxy for DXY. All references to ‘the dollar’ are based on UUP. The equity and index prices are now based on the cash close each day.

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold). 

Monday January 28

ECB President Draghi makes the introductory statement at the ECON hearing in the European Parliament today. Tariff-sensitive CAT reports before the bell, but the main focus of the day will probably further reaction to the Fed report from Friday.

23:50 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Sunday)

13:30 USD US Chicago Fed National Activity Index 

14:00 EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech

22:45 NZD NZ Imports/Exports/Trade Balance

Tuesday January 29

There is another Brexit parliamentary debate and vote today in the UK. The optimal outcome this time (short of accepting the deal voted down on Jan 15) is an extension to the Brexit date of Mar 29. The vote expected around 1900. Fourth largest DJIA stock MMM (5.32% weight) reports before the bell, but the big one is AAPL, who report around 2130, and have already pre-warned of reduced earnings. There is a rate decision on HUF.

14:00 USD US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)

15:00 USD US Consumer Confidence

21:30 WTI API Stock

23:50 JPY Japan Retail Sales

Wednesday January 30

A big day today. Chinese Vice-President Liu leads a 30-strong delegation visiting the US for two days of trade talks. Expect some soundbites. The rate decision is at 1900, and a hold is expected by all (99.5% priced in on the CME Fedwatch tool). However, the content of the December meeting minutes will be scrutinised, although of course we have already had a lot of dovish signals since the last hike in December. Watch out for the ADP report, the estimate of 178k doesn’t make much allowance for the shutdown.

It’s a big day on earnings, with DJIA heavyweights BA, V and MCD reporting before the bell, along with BABA which is not in any index. At 18.82% total weight, this is the largest single Dow grouping at one point, BA alone is 10% of DJIA. NDX during the day will of course have been influenced by the AAPL report, but after the bell we get NDX giants MSFT and FB (14.35% of the index) along with PYPL TSLA and QCOM (another 3%).

00:30 AUD Australia CPI (‘Trimmed mean’ e 1.8% pr 1.8%)

07:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey

09:30 GBP UK Mortgage Approvals

10:00 EUR DE10 Bond Auction

10:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate

13:00 EUR Germany CPI (YoY prelim) (e 1.8% pr 1.7%)

13:15 USD US ADP Employment Change

15:00 USD US Pending Home Sales (MoM)

15:30 WTI EIA Stock

19:00 USD Fed Rate Decision/Statement (e 2.5% hold)

Thursday January 31

Lots of European data today, with the first reading of European Q4 GDP. These preliminary GDP reports do not move the markets as much as the actual, which is several weeks away.  After two rate decisions in minor European currencies, Black Sea neighbours UAH and BGN, and two central bank speeches, the main thrust is likely to earnings. The MSFT and FB results will be joined by troubled giant GE and V’s competitor MA before the bell, but the highlight will be AMZN, reporting after the close. It’s the last day of the month, so some rotation volatility may be expected from those asset managers that report monthly.

00:01 GBP UK Gfk Consumer Confidence

01:00 CNY China PMIs

03:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement

07:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales

08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment

10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP (Q4 prelim) (YoY e 1.2% pr 1.6%)

10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment

13:30 USD US Jobless Claims

13:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)

14:45 USD Chicago PMI

16:00 EUR Germany BuBa President Weidmann speech

17:30 CAD BoC Wilkins Speech

21:30 AUD Australia AiG Performance of Mfg Index

23:30 JPY Jobs to applicants ratio/Unemployment

Friday February 01

The first day of the new month starts with close focus on the UK PMI (as GBP is so volatile these days), and oil giant XOM (2% of DJIA) reporting before the bell. However, it’s NFP day, with a reduced estimate from usual, probably due to the shutdown which has now (temporarily) ended. AHE and unemployment estimates are unchanged from last month. To finish the week, the important ISM PMI is at 1500, although it doesn’t have the same effect when coincidental with NFP. Note that Canada reports a week later this month, so our preferred USDCAD NFP trade cannot be done.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

08:55 EUR Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI

09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI

09:30 GBP UK Markit Manufacturing PMI

09:30 GBP UK Mortgage Approvals

13:30 USD NFP/AHE/UnEmpl/Participation (e 168k pr 312k)

14:45 USD US Markit Manufacturing PMI

15:00 USD US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

15:00 USD US ISM Manufacturing PMI (e 54.3 pr 54.1)

18:00 WTI Baker Hughes Rig Count

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of them interest you, please click the links. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits or Linkedin (all open in separate windows)

Week to Dec 28th

Mon Dec 24

Markets had been falling all the previous week, and today was another huge down, where significantly, the SPX having lost nearly 7% last week, fell a further 3.26%, and entered a bear market, defined as a 20% drop, for the first time since 2008. The high of Oct 3 was 2940.91 and so 20% below this is 2352.32. The market closed at its low of 2351. Other markets followed suit, but of course DAX and FTSE have been over 20% off the highs for some time. Sentiment was not helped by the government shutdown. The one market that didn’t plunge was FTSE, which closed at 1300, (before New York even opened) was actually up 0.52% on the day. Unlike DAX and NKY, FTSE futures also closed then.

DXY fell in line with equities, and was 0.35% down on the day. As you might expect JPY was sharply up, but so was GBP, which added 0.73% in two hours as at US opened. EUR, AUD and Gold were also up, but CAD was dragged down by Oil which fell 6.5% to a equal the 18-month low of June 2017. Yields were down 6bp in line with the dollar and the risk off mood.

Tuesday December 25

Christmas Day, and NKY futures had followed SPX down on Monday, and the cash market closed 5% down overall (ie from Monday’s Asian cash close). No other markets were open, but DXY futures moved down 0.12%

Wednesday December 26

Today was the start of the short Santa Rally, as defined in Jeffrey Hirsch’s Stock Market Almanac, and what a rally it was. After the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices beat at 14:00, DJIA rose by over 1,000 points, the first time ever in history. PX gapped up and closed at its high, 4.96% up to close at 2485, which is where it stood the previous Wednesday. DAX and NKY performed similarly, but FTSE (including futures) was closed. Although this may have been the ‘spirit of Christmas’, a more likely explanation is the 9.7% increase in the Oil price, as it bounced off the (Monday, and November 2016 and June 2017) triple low to add 9.71%, its best day since Feb 22, 2016.

The ‘Turnaround Wednesday’ (ie would have been Tuesday but for Christmas) extended to the dollar, with DXY adding 0.47%, and in an exact reversal, GBP, EUR, Gold and particularly JPY were sharply down, whereas CAD was up. Only AUD kept direction, and added for the day. Yields also reversed back up in line with the mood.

Thursday December 27

The over-enthusiasm was tempered on Thursday. After a mixed Jobless Claims report at 13:30, and no progress on the shutdown, SPX and other indices pared their gains, all pulling back, but still ahead of the Monday close, and then rallying sharply into the US close. This was timing, SPX ended green, but the foreign indices, being futures at that time didn’t quite hold all Wednesday’s gains. FTSE had closed before the US session even opened on Monday, and missed the Wednesday rally. It plunged over 2.6% to a new two-and-a-half year low, before recovering over half that loss in futures. the late US session. FTSE cash close 2% down on the day. There were, in hindsight, some arbitrage possibilities on this index as it tried to catch up.

The dollar turned back down, with DXY softening by 0.45%, but again the picture was mixed, JPY and Gold were up as equities turned down, the former giving up over half its gain into the equity closing rally. EUR was well up, but GBP, which had swung over 1 cent earlier in the week was relatively flat. As Oil retreated from its stellar one-day gain, CAD followed it down, and yields gave up most of their Wednesday spike, in line as on Monday. The correlations have been strong this week, the USDJPY and US10Y charts look very much like the one for SPX.

Friday December 28

After a wildly volatile week, Friday was much flatter. SPX and NKY were flat on the day, where the lagging (due to market time differences) European indices posted solid green candles. It is a sign of the current volatility that the relatively small moves on the charts were still 1.26% up for DAX, and 1.01% for FTSE, in normal markets, a big ramp. This was despite a notable miss in German CPI (1.7% vs 1.9% est) at 1300, which notably capped the rising EUR, which stopped rising at that point, unlike JPY, GBP and Gold which carried on rising all day. AUD and CAD had early rallies, but the EIA Stock miss at 1530 (two days late because of the holiday), and consequent fade in the Oil price sent the latter into reverse, to be the only currency weaker than the dollar this week. Yields were down again, to close the week at 2.718%, an 11-month low.

Please note all figures and percentages given for daily movement on indices cover the entire cash and futures period in that day. Currency moves are stated in relation to the US dollar. Dollar moves are referenced from the DXY basket.

WEEKLY PRICE MOVEMENT

After the disastrous crash into Christmas Eve, the market did produce a Santa Rally, and indices ended the week slightly up. DJI made its first ever 1,000 point up day on Dec 26. The US outperformed other countries, but this may have been because they had more closed days. We are of course still well down on the month.

DXY gave up 0.49%, exactly the same amount as last week. Forex was much flatter than usual, but the biggest winner JPY is an indicator the market is still nervous. CADJPY was the only pair to move more than 1%. NDX immensely outperformed SPX. The tech index was up 4.86%, and AMZNs move was outstanding. Of great note this week was the recovery of Ethereum, which has put on 66% in the last two weeks, its best since March 2017, long before the crypto bubble burst.

(Crypto prices are given as at 0000GMT Saturday, after the other markets close.)

AUDUSD 0.7044 (+0.14%)

EURGBP 0.9001 (+0.09%)

EURUSD 1.1438 (+0.48%)

GBPUSD 1.2708 (+0.40%)

NZDUSD 0.6706 (-0.06%)

USDCAD 1.3638 (+0.26%)

USDJPY 110.28 (-0.86%)

DAX     10583 (+0.71%)

FTSE     6734 (+1.45%)

NIFTY   10860 (+0.99%)

NKY     19980 (+0.54%)

SPX    2486.4 (+2.75%)

GOLD  1280.76 (+1.97%)

OIL     45.04 (-0.27%)

BTCUSD   4037 (+1.46%)

ETHUSD 142.13 (+27.49%)

FB     133.20 (+6.60%)

AAPL   156.23 (+3.65%)

AMZN  1478.02 (+7.30%)

NFLX   256.08 (+3.93%)

GOOGL 1046.68 (+5.59%)

DXY     96.39 (-0.49%)

NEXT WEEK (all times are GMT)

(Calendar High volatility items are in bold). 

Monday December 31

Between railing at the Democrats about the shutdown, President Trump tweeted over the weekend that he spoke again to President Xi of China and [the trade] “deal is moving along very well” and “Big progress being made!”. Previous tweets in this vein have lifted the market.

New Year’s Eve falls on a Monday, as it did in 2012, 2007 and 2001. Traditionally this is the last day of the Santa Rally, and also of course the last day of the fiscal month, quarter and year, where any last-minute window-dressing (rotation of stocks to make fund holdings look good) takes place. However, it’s another pre-holiday, so expect lighter trading and surprises are less likely. The stock market is open all day, but the bond market closes at 1900. There is little news.

01:00 CNY China NBS PMIs

15:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index

Tuesday January 01

New Year's Day and all markets are closed, so a bigger break than Christmas. Futures will open at 6pm EDT. The only news is from Australia, where it is of course Wednesday morning.

21:30 AUD Aus AiG Performance of Mfg Index

Wednesday January 02

Markets return today for the first day of trading in 2019, (except for Japan and New Zealand which remain closed a second day), although news is just a constant stream of Manufacturing PMIs. Traditionally it is an up day as institutions start buying for the new reporting year, but in this market, who knows. In theory, it is the start of earnings season, and 69 companies report, although the first reports on consequence are JPM. WFC and UNH on Jan 15.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

08:55 EUR Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI

09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI

09:30 GBP UK Markit Manufacturing PMI

14:00 NZD GDT Milk Index

14:30 CAD Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI

14:45 USD US Markit Manufacturing PMI

Thursday January 03

The ISM PMI is the most important print of the day, and it is expected to decline, although last month’s print beat substantially. A similar decline (est 58, prev 60.7) is expected in the ISM Prices Paid report. The ADP jobs report is always watched to give an indication of Friday’s NFP. Like last week, the API oil report is two days late due to the holidays. Japan is closed for a third day. 

00:00 AUD Aus TD Securities Inflation (MoM)

09:30 GBP UK Construction PMI

13:15 USD US ADP Employment Change (est 175k pr 179k)

13:30 USD US Jobless Claims

15:00 USD US ISM Manufacturing PMI/Prices Paid (PMI est 58 pr 59.3)

15:00 USD US Construction Spending (MoM)

21:30 WTI API Stock

Friday January 04

The biggest day of the week sees NFP, where estimates are a little lower than usual. We have this issue where markets are entering bear territory, yet US economic figures are quite good, and the Fed only works from the latter, despite recent strong pressure from the White House. An NFP beat has a strong chance of being taken as “good news is bad news” (and a miss vice versa), meaning it will confirm or delay rate hikes. Added to that Chair Powell joins a panel in Atlanta with previous Fed Chairs Yellen and Bernanke today. What he says will be watched very closely. Also on today are Fed members Mester at 1300 and Barkin at 1830. Like last week, the EIA report is two days late due to the holidays. Japan’s markets open for 2019.

Unusually, there are Saturday speakers this week, Fed Williams at 1300 and Bostic at 1515.

01:45 CNY China Caixin Services PMI

08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate/Change

09:00 EUR Eurozone Markit Services/Composite PMIs

09:30 GBP UK Mortgage Approvals

09:30 GBP UK Markit Services PMI

10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI/PPI (Core CPI est 1% prev 1%)

13:30 USD US NFP/AHE/Unemp/Participation (NFP e178k p155k, AHE e3.1% p3%)

13:30 CAD Canada NFP/Unemp/Participation (NFP est 5k, pr 94.1k)

14:45 USD US Markit Markit Services/Composite PMIs

15:15 USD FOMC Member Bostic speech

15:15 USD Fed Chair Powell Speech

15:30 WTI EIA Stock

18:00 WTI Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

This report is published every week as an email by MatrixTrade.com - you can sign up to receive it here. This blog is supported solely by advertising, so if any of them interest you, please click the links. If you want notification when the blog is updated, please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Stocktwits or Linkedin (all open in separate windows)